Member Info for FunkySausage

Huge volume today after the close, noted a kool £1mill buy

To all the doubters have some faith, if we were about to do a capital raise rest assured there would be mad selling pre announcement and certainly no 20mill buys

All statements above are offered only as opinion and should not be taken as investment advice.

Funky

Not sure if this has been posted

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1VN1NQ

Funky

Rastuss : I totally agree, at every announcement the company has been punished for this, I'm sure the board have a plan to sort it all out, there good like that, well connected which is everything in that part if the world, I expect the russian deal to provide more opportunities at a later date, but that's just my gut instinct on the deal, Love Kaz but this current deal has and is going to hurt the SP, the extra pressure of the red gold being the bell weather of the economy will also add pressure in coming months, I'm out of copper n oil and will return to pure cash hopefully after SXX sort themselves out, will always read this board to stay up to date as it's my favourite copper share, but I think its wiser to sit out now for a bit if possible )

Funky

Rastuss : it's my understanding that the Russians and Chinese quite simply do not play by the rules of the West. ENRC and BZM are 2 extremely good examples of liberties and underhanded moves, BZM cost me a considerable amount.

The world is corrupt, money talks, this is hows it's done, business would prefer not to talk about it.

Funky

Rastuss

Thanks, good read )

Funky

Hi Ratsuss

I remember reading the same stuff as yourself, Chinese builders, previous big companies not interested etc.
The market at the time gave the deal a big thumbs down, is why we dropped of a cliff by 30%

Funky

Jeremy Corbyn said this today the Labour party leader delivered a speech warning that northern voters would 'pay the price' for a no-deal Brexit with their jobs.

No pressure to back SXX then )

Funky

Hi Chriso

While I dont like to say whether to buy or not as it's really down to your own opinion, I see buying in now as a calculated risk, as a very well known saying from my old job goes, you have to know when to Hold'em and know when to fold'em.

As Clint would say, do you feel lucky Punk, go ahead make my day.

The bond road show engaged in prospective clients for SM high yield bonds which were put hed at 12%.

Unfortunately we have a trade war going on between Mr Tango and Mr China, the week were selling it all went a little bit Pete Tong. Prospective clients have said they would like the rate increased to 13.5%, some have asked for warrants attached, personally as the company has stated that they will revisit the markets with this offering time will tell if it is going to be good or bad, ofc it could go wrong and ofc it could go right, who knows for sure, no one quite yet.

At this juncture I like to try to read between the lines a little, so let's try and have a look shall we.

After the bonds were pulled due to market conditions and tariffs, ie Trump berating the FED and China raising tarrifs on US goods, more importantly texas oil at 5% this caused a massive downside in the high yield bond markets.
The day that Trump said he would postpone some tarrifs until December SM was in the last he if trading on the ftse250, all PIs were basically locked out for most of this he, some small trades went through, this also happened on Monday morning for another hr or 2 with shares being sold at a rate of 1mill per hour, this bodes well for SM shareholders, this was big II taking positions.
We also have to look at the current shorts, postions and back room deals that have been going on for the last 2 weeks, while the shorts have increased very slightly, imo this is due to the fact that the positions held by II have been slightly shuffled around, mostly by Citi, again imo this is a positive for SM.
Bond markets have also improved to a better rate than before we launched the road show, if this lasts who knows, we have new tariffs being introduced by China and the US today. We will know in 2 days.We also have another positive in the FED MEETING 17-18 of September, this should hopefully include QE and interest rate cut, this bodes very well for markets in general.
Normally stocks and shares are quite leaky in information just before something happens either positive or negative, from this we should be able to determine in time the either benefit or detrimental effect on the SP, volume will increase for no reason and we will see if its negative or positive for us, this sometimes allows a small window to make a quick decision.So really it's all down to you to make the decision if you wish to hold or not, if you feel that it will be positive, better to hold, if not sell, if not sure some might sell half and rebuy after. This is yours and only your decision to make, personally I am in the mindset that we will not be diluted again but ofc it's

Hi Scotman

Yes indeed, good find, in under 5 yrs of full production.

But I noticed that if we also go on the repayment route we could also be debt free at 2019, now that is incredibly appealing, high debt only holds back valuations and provides a huge drag on the SP, especially in a downturn, plus it frees up for a full divi and if needed a global war chest for an assault on the fertiliser wholesalers/blenders market.

Funky

Funky

Only guarantees in life Jimmy boy is Death and Taxes, besides who doesnt like a spin in the cashino sometimes )

Funky

The thing with KAZ is plainly obvious, the markets do not like the russian investment, when announced the market pushed us down, they dont like the Russians and they dont like the size of the expected investment going into the current climate, debt is not liked in a tough environment, we had these issues last time the markets wobbled and bu the looks of things we will have them again, love KAZ but it's looking wobbly atm imo

Funky

Hi Jimmy

I think you will be surprised to know theres quite a few of us PIs holding over 1mill each

Funky

Hi Chesh

Yes I agree it's a calculated risk, this edge served me extremely well in a different aspect of career path also in a casino.

All personal investor lacks to the proper skills and tools to have the same amount of knowledge as the big boys, what most dont know and understand is that we are the small fish in the pond. My knowledge is still very limited and feel I learn something new every year.
The sub-club is a great way to stack your investment and to help build a position, you become used to the monthly outgoing so that it doesnt notice and you spread the risk of investment over a period of time to garner a respectful price of your holding.

Thumbs up from me for strategy.

Funky

It seems alot of new posters have arrived all slamming the old news of the bonds being pulled, for the people that do not believe the Bond issue will be positive feel free to short or wait for a better position to take if that ever becomes available, for the believers it's all about topping up if you can, for the I do not know either way best sit out and wait to see.

Personally i believe we will get the bonds away time will tell.

The government guarantee is exactly what it says on the tin. The government only provides a guarantee that it would cover the costs IF the company is unable to service its debt. While it is plainly obvious that the company will not go under it is still a large guarantee to provide to a private company with no government contracts.

The shift in backroom dealings, positions and overall sentiment, share price movement and bond markets all point to a positive for me.

For the new investors : Please do not look to this board for advice, it is littered with over expectations of a wildly high share price or people that are saying that the company wont make the bond deal, either way these boards are for general chat and shouldn't be mixed up with " you are receiving financial advice, because you are not ", I read these boards daily and have been investing for over 30yrs and here and on most AIM boards they never cease to amaze me with the extremities of both ends of opinion, it's like looking at a hard core remainer and a hard core brexiteer for opinion.

Investing is not for the faint hearted and the amount of variables that need including can be overwhelming to comprehend that can affect the overall markets, which all need to be included into forward thinking for a successful investing strategy.

Enjoy your spin in the cashino.

Funky

https://www.facebook.com/185193738277157/posts/2235942726535571/

I dont expect dilution this time around, we have plenty of contingency funds to be able to take the extra 100mill hit, the BOD will want to get this away without dilution, I'm sure the board do feel for the many PIs invested but IMO we are not at a make or break scenario, that was the last dilution, this is just business and working through what needs to be done. I'm sure after only tapping investors a few months ago for a considerable chunk the board would find it a little distasteful, visiting again is a little embarrassing so soon, I'm still confident of the bonds being vanilla and at a comfortable rate, the magical tea leaves of the last week or so have been pointing to a bright scenario, regardless of Trumps tweets ( although they didnt help the drop was more to do with china adding tariffs and crucially tarrifs on WTI ) business goes on and so does life, I'm comfortable with our position due to the recent back market moves, it makes me feel confident that the ground work is already in motion, we have a Fed rate meeting at the 17th - 18th ( I think ) at which point there will be a cut and a flurry of confidence back in the markets if that stabiliser is even needed.

Gotta love Trump though, what a character, has no understanding of economics, but is amusing to watch, at every opportunity he looks like a bowing ball smashing over the pins, love the way he is smashing the establishment to bits, hate the way he has put my investment at risk, personally I think China will look to move the recession forward with the world blaming trump, it's better for them if he isn't re-elected for another 4yrs, but he is right China takes advantage of the world and gets kick backs for a so called developing nation for trade, cant be that undeveloped if it will over take the US as the number 1 economy in 20-30yrs.

Funky

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/08/25/could-the-sirius-minerals-share-price-fall-to-zero/

Investors wanted 13% SXX didnt wanna pay so much, so worst case scenario imo is that they move up to 13% and the deal is done.

Lots if panicking again recently, shame the board had a feel of coming together and helping each other to read between the lines, Trump makes a bad tweet and everyone starts panicking again

So we await Spetember for our chance at selling our bonds, last real step in building SXX financing. What can we expect in Spetember ?

Fed meeting at about 17-18 of Spetember, expected rate cut and QE desired by markets, this would ideally be the optimum time for the launch of the SXX bond, but only if the markets are satisfied with the FED outcome.

With CITI buying more this gives a boost of sentiment, these guys are no fools and as soon as Trump put off the expected tariffs on Chinese goods, SXX was closed more or less for the last hour of trading, next morning another hour was also blocked off. All trades going through was at about 1mill a min. This is a massive vote of confidence at this crucial time.

So we have been told the bonds would be Vanilla at the last launch, will these terms be improved ? Let's hope not as us PIs will be the ones to suffer, who knows what was said, lets hope it was everything is going mental, we need to sit back for a week or 2 to let the dust settle. At worst they will attach extra benefits to get then away, I'm happily confident that these will go, so confident in fact I have built a huge position in SXX and I am waiting patiently, risky yes, crazy most likely, still a gamble, but I have been gambling for a living for years.

The recent increase in shorts I have down as Citi hedging their bets, let's hope so eh. Keeping a eye on them is crucial but understanding the hedging is key as not to over read between the lines

Boris is a outsider but is now aware thanks to some posters here going a bit into overdrive recently. Most likely the government would sit back and only step in if financing wasn't found, but Boris is no fool, I know this first hand having dealt with this chap, he may come across as a bit of a fool but believe me no fool is he, infact Boris is well known for getting done what he wants done one way or another, besides with 85,000 retail investors plus extended families, he is well aware of the amount of votes a helping hand could deliver, is the driving force for all parties, votes.

No news on Bond improvements is obviously good so far but we will not know for sure until the launch, i would expect the Bonds to be offered around about time of the Fed meeting, this would be the strongest time to offer them as long as the Fed gives the markets what they want ( if they dont it will be carnage everywhere ) I expect this to be nailed by the Fed this time around, as for the ECB they have little fire power in their arsenal left after not raising rates enough over the last few yrs, QE stimulus and large infrastructure building is about all they got, rates are to low to have any real effect by cutting them, the BOE will follow the US and must be aware that Brexit is coming and a substantial package will be needed to head of a run on the banks and the pound, this is all ready and planned, the closing of the banks for a day as suggested by Micheal Gove would only postpone the blood for a day. Go

Bo all ocks to it, I tried 2 times to write a good piece and both times lost it due to searching a link, so unluckily u will not be inputting, bloody annoyed

Hi

May I ask why you have changed your mind, what has influenced your change in opinion on this now being a buy.

Thanks

Funky