Member Info for FTSE12

I'm predicting it will hold above £1.50, but I still don't see it as an Investment for a long term hold. Too much risk of tying up large amount of capital when there are so many other opportunities in the FTSE100. I'm currently holding a £120k profit (Paper profit) on a company called 'Ashtead' - have been in for a few years and put a large amount of capital in just over 12 months ago.

Personally, I wouldn't touch any airline at the moment. I'd only consider a very quick trade if there is a major drop in a single day e.g. 7%+. Ant time this happens (due to panic selling) - the SP always tends to recover circa 3% - 4% the following day. In these scenarios, I usually buy £100k worth and get out the following day.

I was predicting £1.50 in the SHORT Term, but I'm still convinced there will be another liquidity call by end of December 2021. I doubt it will be an RI - I'd suggest it will be another Bond issue. Reality is that at the moment it's very difficult to see where the positive news will come from to lift the SP to any meaningful degree.

For all the reasons stated previously. It's still trending down.......and further and further away from some optimist's projection of £2.00 by now.

Big Blue - it's called APD (Air Passenger Duty)........it'll just get raised again on the pretence funds will be used to fight climate change. APD increases are just an easy target for any government to raise additional income. Easy & simple to do. APD will rise, but people will still travel as always . PAX numbers across the board will soon rise once the whole Covid issue becomes less of an issue.

Could well be that my £1.50 estimate will be reached by end of August. At the moment it's difficult to see where the positive momentum will come from. Reality has set in across the whole airline sector. Will be interesting to see where the small daily falls finally stop.

I was expecting to see £1.50 by end of September, but could this be reached before then? Sentiment and fundamentals would suggest that this may be hit sooner than I expected. Hard to see what the key drivers are going to be to add some positive SP movement in the medium term.

It's a bit like a leaking tap at the moment......drip, drip, drip......slowly down. I'm still convinced it will see £1.50 by end of September. Hard to see what key events will turn the SP around. A partial opening of US market will bounce the SP, but i would expect any upward momentum to be temporary. Too many headwinds in the sector to have any confidence on any real upward momentum in the medium term.

Are you having a laugh Sudenza.....the Champagne must be good.

Instead of EU, Gove, Masks, Climate Change......and all the other side topics

Will I see my £1.50 SP by end of September?......let's just wait and see.

This is not related to 'Short Term' - there has been a strategic review of the ROI transatlantic traffic by Aer Lingus . These new aircraft were ordered back in 2018 on expectation of additional growth of ROI transatlantic market. IAG have made the strategic decision and enforced this on Aer Lingus that additional capacity (originally planned for ROI) would be best fulfilled from UK to fill a potential gap in the market left by the demise of another airline. As someone in the 'business' - the information I have is that Manchester have offered a very good incentive to Aer Lingus to operate these scheduled flights from the UK. ROI transatlantic traffic is now not targeting any real growth (over & above pre-covid levels) until 2024/25

I wouldn't get too excited about this. Historically Aer Lingus operated a very successful (highly profitable) transatlantic service (Pre-Covid) from ROI. IAG obviously accept that any future growth of transatlantic traffic from ROI will be limited (more than likely be reduced for FY 2022 & 2023) - hence the move of planned new aircraft from ROI to UK. Manchester is a good move as bulk of capacity for BA is from Heathrow. Longer term - I see this as a good move.

Alas_Smith .....you should have done what I did........put the spiteful halfwit on filter. Judging by the comments on the board, I assume the spiteful halfwit is still posting.

Summer season is a virtual write-off. Cash burn rate is not sustainable without an additional liquidity call (I would expect this to be made by December 2021 at the latest). Any partial opening up of US routes will of course spike the SP, but I would see this as a very temporary spike and then back to reality. Posters calling out a 100%, 200%, 300% increase in PAX numbers - this is all relative. It's actually more cost effective to keep an aircraft grounded than it is to operate a sector at a loss. My wife is a senior Captain for BA, and my 2 young daughters are both FO's (not BA). Reality is that they are all on reduced flying hours contracts (75% + 50%). This does not mean they will fly 75% + 50% - just means they are paid at this level now. I have a very good insight into the Pilot schedules for 3 airlines - and it doesn't make great reading. I cannot see any great reduction in the cash burn rate for any of the airlines in the IAG group over the next 4 months or so. Whether anyone agrees with my current sentiment or not is totally irrelevant to me. As a Management Consultant in the Airline business - I do have a very deep insight into current state of play in the sector.

"The day of the airline apocalypse is not far off now"........BB, you really have lost the plot now!

Alas_Smith........that's a vey good post. Well considered and thoughtful.

Nzonze - this BB is for IAG. Go and push your penny shares elsewhere.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/08/01/stelios-risks-frozen-easyjet/

Hey Big Blue - it's NOT a fact, more of a case that TRELLO got a bit carried away with his statement. It's in the Telegraph on Sunday - just a 'mulling' of raising equity to but out Ole Stellios.........nothing new there, old news which just gets repeated every so often. Ole Stellio hates the EZJ Board, ever since they removed him years ago.