RE: Nash Equilibrium8 Dec 2025 14:16
RodneyT, I was thinking a similar thing over the weekend. I was trying to position myself in BHP's shoes and took the assumption that they wanted the asset. The sensible thing to do would wait for Jiangxi to come back with a final bid... but what if that bid is way way higher than where they were before... like 50's or 60's. So to counter this, wouldn't make sense for BHP to 'disrupt' the chinese's game but coming in with a 45p but imminently eg before the chinese land a 3rd bid. That would cause the Chinese to rethink and then they have to counter offer at much higher price.
If BHP are interested, then I think they will stand a better chance of winning if they land an unexpected bid and steal the chinese's thunder. Post that event, the chinese no longer look silly if counter bidding as it becomes completely unrelated to the 26p sighter.
I have no doubts that behind the scenes, now the Chinese are canvassing and trying to gain a concensus in price expectations. You might have Maxit saying 45p is our number and Mather saying 65p is my number with Norges, Tenstar, L&G and others saying 65p is out number etc etc. Of course, alot hangs on what NEM's number is. But my point being, there's a danger that if BHP leave it too long then Jiagnxi may well have secured some important votes. Whereas if BHP throw hat into ring... then all holders involved is simply going to abstain from giving a 'number' and just sit back and watch the likes of BHP and Chinese slug it out or someone like Glencore or Lundin etc etc.
I think BHP gain traction if they make the next bid.