Member Info for Fortissimo

RodneyT ... absolutely... it's a great game. Gifting the Chinese 6% at 9p bascially means they have 12.2% with an average near 13p I believe. So they only have to acquire the other 88%... and due to their low average can pay more than say BHP which have an average around 27p ish I think. I don't have a problem with how Paul and Dan are playing it. I'm just saying that I think our BoD's have given the Chinese everything that they can... so it's now down to the chinese to deliver the goods. And if they don't... that's up to them. Someone else will do it as the assets are too good to sit on a shelf.

BHP tried to disrupt the board with underhand tactics. Prioer to that Newcrest were throwing toys out of the pram when we wouldn't do a dilutive equity raise and preferred the royalty stream deal. Both of these guys (now NMM after taking NEM over) are not friendly. So why not cosy up to the chinese? Better than polishing BHP's boots for sure.

I'm just suggesting that it's possible our BoD's could get a deal done with the chinese (to help them) that involved just ENSA and leaves shareholders the Regionals and Porvenir plus the full proceeds from ENSA sale. But price has to be right. BHP may still counter etc so that's out of everyones control.

But there's no way on this planet the Chinese should be getting ENSA cheap and the regionals inc Porvenir chucked in for free. That's well out of order. But as the game goes... there's always a counter bid chance so nothing is ever dusted until it's properly inked. And Q3 2026 (royalty stream buyback option time) will be coming up fast if they play bidding war games for next 3 months!

That's a great masterplan. No complaints. The complaints will only come if we go cheap to the chinese as then the plan will have failed and our BoD's will look rather complicit.

Conflict of interest? Lol!

Addicknt, you really can be a bit thick sometimes. Smith handed the Chinese 6% of the company at 9p. He also allowed them to offer technical advice on our assets. When was Mr Liu added to the board? When did Chinese take their first 5% stake?

What evidence is there that Liu is 'their man'.

Are you serious? How many other Chinese board members to we have?

It's no secret... our board have notched up M&A with the chinese before. They were brought in by Bob/Maxit. He's had dealings with them before. They were gifted 6% of our shares at 9p. They were allowed access to our site/assets long ago under the guide or ruse that they can offer us technical support/sdvice. And finally, we even let them have a man on the board... one Mr Liu. So we've rolloed out the carpet for them. There is no doubt about that. We even appear to have cancelled conferences and presentatiosn to market the company by their request while our BoD discussed offers.

So lets be clear here... our board want the chinese to get this. They've worked 'with them' for months now. The sticky thing is how to help them get across the line with a price that meets 'most' insiders expectations. Lets say that's 60p+ for arguments sake. Lets say that gets recommended by the board and supported by Mather/Maxit et al.

Done deal? Nope... because what matters most is how NEM and or BHP act. Our board can only 'help' the Chinese so far... and then it's over to natural market forces and competition. Counter bids may come and then again, they may not.

If the chinese don't want to pay a fair price and prefer 50p levels rather than 60p+... they our board could say to them that the deal could be recommended if it's ONLY for ENSA. That would leave all shareholders with the regionals and Porvenir (ExploreCo). That could be worth 5p a share iniitally based on 3bln shares and upon successful drills/discoveries could soon become 20p or 30p+.

They've already been gifted the cheapest entry by any of the super majors. They know the assets better than anyone else. They've literally has 24 months worth of due diligence in imho.

26p is a sighter and anchors expectations. It's standard bid stuff. Derisory yes... but it was also aligned closely to the share price eg picthed at just above the 24p area although on the day it was 26p+ which made it look poorly pitched. But now the stock is testing 31p/32p... it might get to 36p levels before they entertain a bid again. But if it does, then highly likely the Chinese will pitch it at 40p level or slightly higher. They won't look like they are over paying or bidding if the previous closing price was 36p+.

What happens after a 40p+ bid is anyones guess. But even if it's recommended and for ENSA only... there are likely other bidders lurking and waiting to counter bid.

Anything that included the regionals and Porvenir will not fly with me unless it's way way above where we are today represents fair value of ALL assets.

Ecuador is like Peru was years ago... it's going to se a surge of activity over next few months and years. Starting with the 12 x Solaris licence blocks that are being bid on right now. Deadline is 12th Dec for final bids on those. Who's bidding? I guess we'll find out soon.

UAE doing the work for Trump??

"In this framework, the UAE is stepping up mining cooperation with the United States of America (USA), both abroad and at home, paving the way for a strengthened – though not exclusive – UAE-USA partnership on critical minerals, consequently benefitting the Emirati defence goals." END.

https://www.iris-france.org/en/the-minerals-defence-nexus-in-the-uaes-strategy/

He looks happy... the UAE are not in this for the Bananas.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DR7KEJNiWm6/

Ecuador looking like serious hot property.

Now... why would the UAE being interested in doing a deal like this with little old Ecuador? Do they need more banana's? Who are they looking at the next major mining provence in South America?

Well done Nobby. Now lets be having that CIPA.

Scenario1...

We sell the lot for a decent price but not perfect by any means and lose all upside in the regionals / Porvenir.

Say 70p for arguments sake. Daylight robbery.

Scenario 2: We split the biz into two parts. ENSA (SOLG) and then NewCo eg ExploreCo regionals inc Porvenir spun out and called SOLEXPLO.

We then agree to sell ENSA for say 60p (for example sake).

So lets take a decent holding (but not massive... retail style size) of 500k shares. So that's £300k cash in the pocket via a dividend.

Lets assume we have 80% of SOLEXPLO after listing on ASX and the market cap is £100m with £30m (GBP for ease of example) in cash to explore. Assume 10p a share and 1 bln shares. So based on 500k shares, the above would hold about 150k shares in SOLEXPLO. Worth about £15k.

Then the fun bit... £50k of ENSA dividend is reinvested post IPO or at the same 10p price into SOLEXPLO. Combined holding is now 650k shares.

Ops kick off and SOLEXPLO then release bullish news on Porvenir. Share price jumps to 15p. Then SOLEXPLO release news on shallow high grade finds from one of the main regional folio targets. SOLEXPLO pops to 25p+ (£250m market cap). Then news of more drilling success on another licence block from regionals. SP jumps to 35p (market cap £350m) and excitement building that SOLEXPLO has found another Tier1 mine.. poss better than Cascabel.. but long way to go. SP now up to 40p and market cap £400m.

Even at this early stage, the holding described about is now worth £260k (with £50k invested).

The above is just an example of what can happen. Of course, it can also result in failed drilling results and more dilution and zero comes from the regionals. But I doubt that considering how rich in precious metals Ecuador is on geological basis. £50k is a sizable investment but remember, £250k has already been banked from ENSA sale.

Dan's current plan is to spin out the regionals. So this is not new. But the path to glory here is not necessarily based on a high price for ENSA. It may well be down to exploration again and this time on a index like ASX where they know how to price early exploration.

Total gain based on above would be £510k. Compare that to scenario 1, and it would take approx £1 a share offer to match it. It's just a different way to get there. And if the SOLEXPLO finds another Tier1mine or two... then it's like £2 or £3 a share and so on.

Agree... but it's not in our hands FTJNY. In my experience, all the decent stocks out there that show a glimpse of real value or potential get take out pronto. It's very rare to see a Tier1 mine that is 100% owned get this far out of a super majors hands. Nevermind in a bull metals market.

I'd really like to see the ExploreCo spun out as planned and like you am in no rush to be selling anything with 2026 looking very strong for miners.

But if NEM decide to sell up their 10% and Maxit and a few others follow suit, it becomes very hard indeed to carry on going it alone when you have a major shareholder with 25%+ holding.

My the very fact that you and I can see the serious fruits that lay ahead tells me that we're going to be bought out and soon. Shame... as there's so much more to come. But that's markets for you. Once potential starts to shine... it's whipped away.

The royalty stream buy back deadlines are the main issue for buyers on a timeframe basis. That's why it's a ticking time clock here on... unfortunately we don't have the luxury and seeing it through to the end imho.

But there's still a chance that we can sell up the Tier1 mine and retain the ExploreCo / Porvenir etc. Just needs a discussion with interested parties and deals can be done. We'd have another 5 or 6 serious pops at another Tier1 mine then.

There are a few other scenarios. For instance, a large copper stream deal, or an earn in style JV with someone completely new (like UAE or Lundin etc ) would be enough to force Chinese and or BHP to make a stronger or higher priced bid.

For sometime now we've had posters on here saying offers in the 60's a pipe dream etc... why would anyone bid that when the sp was 9p etc. They didn't understand that the 'asset' is the thing that buyers are bidding on... not the sp. The latter catches up with real value in the end.

So from the days of scraping along the 7p or 8p lassonde bottom curve, we are now heading up the curve and have miles to go.

The irony is, here we are at 31p... and an offer at say 62p ONLY offers a 1 x (100%) jump from here. From 7p it's a multi-bagger. From 31p, it's a 1 or 2 bagger or a 3 bagger.

Go it alone and get ExploreCo spun out and then JV a % of Cascabel or even IPO it as well (like Rio did with Turquiose Hill) and then you rinse and repeat with next discovery. Push Porvenir along too. So many options available with a market that is gagging for PM's and miners with high impact folios. Higher metal prices and global metal resources war has transformed SOLG's asset values.

So to get max value... doesn't necessarily mean another bidder has to enter the ring. So much value here... Dan and Paul need to find the best way to realise it that is not too heavy on the risk side and delivers in next 2 to 3 years. Anything longer and Shareholders naturally are attracted by offers that bring value forwards albeit discounted somewhat.

Time is against them... and that's all potential buyers. Q3 2026 is when the first Franco/Osisko royalty stream 50% buy back option expires. The second one is late Q2 2027. Any buyer/future owner of Cascabel desperately needs those royalty streams reduced. Simple as that.

So lets just assume Jiagnxi next offer appears before Dec 27th. What next? Well.. subject to the offer level, other potential buyers on sidelines can step forward and offer a counter offer. If a bid war kicks off, it could be march or even April before a winner is declared. Then it's going to be 6 months+ due diligence before the deal completes... see where I am going with this...? So to avoid missing the Royalty stream buy back option deadline, any party ... not just chinese needs to get a jog on. There's no sitting back and waiting this time. They simply have to move.

Based on market forecasts, mining and PM's are expected to perform strongly in 2026. SOLG have a number of catalysts lined up that also are expected to fire the company sp higher such as CIPA, TAM and PFS updated numbers and modelling. And then there's the ExploreCo spin out plans. All that's due to land before end of year but I suspect due to bid situation will unfold when the time is right and as defensive measure if needed etc.

So in a nut shell, the Chinese moved because the time window is closing fast. They moved because they could see SOLG rerating fast. They moved because they knew what news stream SOLG have lined up to deliver.

So imho even if the Chinese decide to duck out... they'll be another bid that follows them very soon after.

This has all been done by 'design' by our management team. They know the importance of the royalty stream buyback options... and they've been working hard to get as much done as possible to derisk before that option expires.

Jiagnxi have a chance here... they've moved first for a reason and the timing just before SOLG's AGM is also smart. I imagine they nor BHP will be voting for some of the specials.

Exciting times.

I think if you go back to SOLG's RNS's or the MD&A, it said they were almost there with the consensus on the relocation and that was some months ago now. I think there was just 1 group remaining which needed to sign up. SOLG / ENSA has a great reputation in Ecuador and that's been built on millions being spent on schools, sustainable projects and so on. That's very important to any buyers out there. For instance, if BHP were to take us out, I suspect they would retain the SOLG/ENSA brand and avoid sticking their BHP logos on uniform etc. BHP don't have a great reputation in South America especially after the Brazil dam disaster. Incidentally... BHP's lawyers got slapped down by the London courts on Thursday as they tried to wriggle out of more litigation.

Jiangxi is a publically listed company... so whilest Chinese hold about 51% (I think they have more than that) they must look like they are not overpaying.

Ironically the converse argument to their short (not confirmed it's there's) is that as they buy that short back and depending on how heavy haded they are... they can actually push the price up. Why do that I hear some cry... well, it better to pitch a 42p when the sp is say 36p rather than say 31p. Makes their shareholders feel better. Blackrock and a few other known market names are shareholders in Jiagnxi.

Certainly bodes well... you would reduce a short (hedge or arbitrage) when you've reached a point whefe you have some certainty or lowered the risk. Have they pitched a new bid... or have they snaffled NEM's acceptance? For a while now, I've always thought the chinese main ambition it to attract/transact a deal which sees them acquire NEM's 10.3% holding.

The game her emay not be about the lock stock and barrel... but more about strengthening bidding position. 20.5% would put them in a great position. Lets hope NEM have held firm and not folded.

The chinese short (lets not beat about the bush here) was openend just prioer to the SOLG reset. They added to their 0.5% short when Noboa won the election in an attempt to cap the price. That resulted in 0.6%.

They dropped the shot back to 0.59% after TAM results but then upped the short to 0.6% Last Friday add some sell weight.

Today or yesterday, they've reduced 0.3% (900k of stock approx).

The short originally avergaed a share prcie around 9p.

If they close out more short at these levels, it's going to result in a net loss of around $5m+.

But keep in mind that the short has served it's purpose and without it deployed at key tiems, SOLG could be 40p+ right now. Each 10p in share price gain = approx £300m.

So trust me... the chinese aint fussed about losing $5m. They are fussed about paying an extra $400m.

Yep, 25% of volume today printed after close at 0.45p premium to closing price.

Lets see if we get any coverage across the media this weekend. mining.com are normally good for the rumour mill.

Just etf's by looks of things as PoG dropped $40 around same time. Usual pre-weekend stuff.

Santa rally hasn't started yet! Plenty of etf's and elf's

I'm more interested in seeing the trades that the mm's are afraid to print until it's closed lol!

I wonder what the UT will be going into the weekend? Another 1m+ jobby or something a bit bigger?

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