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We've had a couple initiate recently with rather basic targets of 11p /12p levels but not unsual as a starter postion when printing the note from lows of 6p. But these were issued BEFORE the CIPA so there's room to see these upgraded which is the general idea. House broker has 63p I believe.
After Ecuador/PDAC, I would expect a few more brokers to get some notes out on SOLG and if they don't then Citi/Maxit need to get out there and get that message across to the broker desks.
Interestingly, all the talk at PDAC regarding Ecuador was mostly centred around the biggest investment signing in Ecuador's history with SOLG's CIPA. But apart from the other companies mentioned in the other 6 to 8 deals signed, names like Newmont and BHP were missing in action.
Both are already in Ecuador so might explain why they are not signing up new deals. You could say same for FMG.. with twiggy having a decent acreage under his belt already. But when you look at the period of time that FMG, BHP and Newmont have been in Ecuador and look at the progress they have made... it's almost zero. None of them have discovered a Tier1 mine yet. None.
Barrick's name was perhaps the most mentioned and since signing new deals in Dec 23, throw in Gina R's recent $120m commitment and you can see it's hotting up big time.
Of course, NMM and BHP have a 10% stake in SOLG so you might say they have already placed their bets on the prime asset in Ecuador long ago. But that's not enough for those two. A 10% stake is minor and not going to bolster their growth numbers. They need the entire asset ands if they want to protect from their competitors, then they need bulk of that regional folio too. If they do nothing, it could all be going to Barrick or Rio or a Consortium.
Approaching a technical breakout. If it can break 3.93, it should be off to test 4 again. Last time it tested 4 was July 2023.
5m+ traded in first 2 hours of trading is pretty good especially when you account for the 32m traded yesterday and the 75m block traded late Feb.
Interest is returning to the stock and rightfully so with Ecuador swinging from being 'apparently' a war zone to a mecca for mining. Fast it it turns around... just like this stock. The return to double digits is upon us after a tough few months.
One of these guys are defo in the loop for finance... whether that's for another 0.5% or for $500m and 3rd of capex... who knows. But don't rule out Mitsui either. Nor Osisko. Between them, SOLG could raise $500m for 5% royalty imho.
After taking a year off SOLG posting mickb... you are certainly back with some posting energy.
Keep it up, good to have you back. Going to be a very exciting time for shareholders ....don't you agree?
Best wait until after 9am when the proper trading starts. Anything pre 9am and it's like game of thrones on speed.
This is going much higher once a few have been dropped off by the pool as they say.
The investment amount of $3.2bln is a curious one as you'd think it would be based on the lower capex $1.4bln as per recent PFS. Perhaps it includes the purchase price of Alpala as well lol! That's about 50p based on $3.2bln inc capex spend. Or... it could suggest that the investment protection is based on the larger planned development PFS which of course is only workable by a number of deep pocketed players.
Why $3.2bln protection? Why not $4bln? The message is clear... Alpala is worth at least $3.2bln as a minimum as why else would you protect that level of spend.
That's £2.5bln or 83p a share. Or if based on capex of $1.4 and $1.8bln purchase price, then it's 47p a share. That's just for Cascabel/Alpala.
Porvenir and regionals likely worth another 8p to 10p a share as they stand.
mmm.
Yes, quite plausible. I initially thought that it was something so big and historic for Ecuador, that they or Noboa wanted to do an official signing ceremony in Ecuador and maximise the press coverage as doubt many in Ecuador pay much attention to Toronto/PDAC etc.
So I think bit of both... perhaps some big names to be announced soon which will also add to Noboa's PR push. So much smarter to hold fire on the definitive agreement until more ducks in order before doing a proper Ecuador signing ceremony celebrating the greatest ever mining investment in the country's history. To do that properly... you have to announce the key funding partners as well.
When you look at what's happened at PDAC, then think about Barrick signing a deal on exploration land in Dec 2023 (literally weeks after Noboa got elected) you can see how the activity was building long before PDAC. That's very smart of Barrick. Then when you throw together the same dates eg SOLG also signed the exploitation agreement early Dec 2023... you begin to wonder whether they were linked in some way?? Perhaps Barrick wanted extra acreage/ops and mad e a few other agreements??
It looks like a number of mining firms and PE firms (inc Gina R) got stuck in the moment Noboa got elected. They acted fast. Now I wonder whether we are now seeing others start to feel left out and panic... hence making moves soon before they get left behind. Remember the mining cadestre is apparently closed lol!
Nice find
"Still, the notes trade deep in distress, with investors pricing in an 80% chance of a default within five years. '"
Now.... what a boon it would be for those bond holders and future Ecuador debt holders (chinese etc) if they could get a Tier1 mine financed. Bit like investing in your own security bond backed program lol!
Oh ... it's hotting up now. I'll add the IMF and bondholders to the list of folk desperate for Alpala to be developed asap.
So the complimentary IPA signed today but the 'definitive' IPA due to be signed in Ecuador.... but when??
from RNS "...in advance of the definitive Complementary IPA to be signed in Ecuador" END
I wonder if the finance package has to be revealed/announced before they 'sign' the final IPA in Ecuador?? If so, then looks like we might have a package lined up and that's going to seriously light a rocket under the shareprice especially when you consider that the Market was happy pricing SOLG at 40p not that long ago based on having a higher capex but no evidence of funding.
Were the other investments signed in Toronto pending definitive sign off's in Ecuador??
It's a bit like a LOI from Ecuador pre funding.
Usually chirping away on good nes like this. Anyone heard from him or is he away in caymans?
Well at least you too your punishment in silence which is admirable while most of us were or have been spitting bullets... not that it has ever done much good, but it feels good at the time.
Anyone seen 75m SOLG shares down the back of the sofa recently?
Rebalancing to the cayman islands ... ho ho ho
Can't get an order for banana's now... mm's only offering apples
Something defo afoot ... where's the 75m shares from last week gone then or where did they come from? Someone's in the money bigtime already... wot a trade at 6p that was. Apparently a hedge fund rebalancing ... mmm. Love it!
Be alot pharting tomorrow if they do drop another RNS in.
Will make the green line crew at home.
Blimey mickb... thought you'd disappeared forever. Where have you been for the last 12 months then? Banana picking?
Apparently it's a farm deal and Scott and Bob have scured $3.2bln in funding in exchange for SOLG shares which have been consolidated into 1 Noboa Banana and 1 SOLG share. The farm out leaves SOLG shareholders with 95% of the business and 5% going to consortium valuing SOLG at $270bln or thereabouts. The sp rose 15% or by £20m reflecting the amazing £270bln project worth. Scott ceo said he was delighted and had awarded himself £200bln in bonus awards.
SOLG was dropped from the FTSE100 on the news after someone pointed out that no FTSE suits owned shares in the company.
Article updated on April 1st 2024.
Has that article been written by an AI bot or someone with half a brain ...
Will SOLG go for a hatrick this week and release 3rd RNS tomorrow?
Not sure it's wise to overfeed those that have been starved for a long time.
Might get bloat problems.