Member Info for ForFXSake

"Unfortunately when the markets have a good day, NFX goes down and when the markets have a bad day, NFX goes down."

I'm certainly not going to challenge that.

"like these I wish I knew how to trade"

I wouldn't recommend trying to trade this share for a start. If you take a look at the 3 year chart you can clearly see a stark change where the Blackwell camp took over from Gooding.

Under Gooding the share price movements were volatile as speculation about project possibilities was fast and loose. DG told us everything. This was ideal for traders. The problem for long term investors was that the deals either evaporated or didn't materialise at all. Under Blackwell we moved to the other extreme. The release of price sensitive information became extremely guarded. When we did eventually get a deal across the line no one could value it, so it was ignored. The decline from July 2020 is comparatively smooth, very little volatilty. Quite dangerous to trade short term given the only option is to go long in a bearish trend, easy to get caught out. I don't think the spread-betting companies cover it anymore so you can't even trade it short that way.

As disappointing as it is to see the price go down again, I think it's a market thing rather than anything to do with this deal. It's a sea of red across the board today.

Apologies, I've just re-checked the date and it is from August 2020 (not 2021). Probably been posted before.

Not sure if this has been posted before (apologies if so). I came across this link while browsing for news on Tranilast. This is dated 9th August 2021. I don't remember seeing it before but it appears to add further weight to the potential use of Tranilast to treat COVID related conditions (particularly in obese or diabetic people). Please note, it is not promoting Tranilast in it's own right but it does specifically mention it amongst a number of promising candidates.

https://bpspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/bph.15229

"The specific reasons for the higher susceptibility of obese and diabetic patients to SARS-CoV2 are unclear, but chronic exposure to a low-grade NLRP3 inflammasome-dependent inflammatory response may well be a key driver"

"To date, there are no specific medications available to treat COVID-19. Clinical trials are in process on several drugs, mainly based on the drug repurposing approach to redevelop a compound/drug for the use in a different disease (COVID-19) other than that of its original use. This review summarizes recent documentations on clinically approved drugs, repurposed to counteract COVID-19 infection, whose potential efficacy can be due, at least in part, to interference with the NLRP3 inflammasome cascade, at different levels "

"Tranilast, an analogue of a tryptophan metabolite, which has been used in allergic disorders such as bronchial asthma, has been recently suggested for repurposing in the treatment of novel coronavirus pneumonia (ChiCTR2000030002). As convincingly demonstrated (Y. Huang et al., 2018), tranilast targets NLRP3 or NLRP3–ASC interaction to block the assembly of NLRP3 inflammasome, thus exerting significant beneficial effects in experimental models of inflammation-associated diseases."

Perhaps an inhaled form of Tranilast would offer even better potential here.

I know it is irrelevant at the moment but if we do get good data for NXP002 then it might offer an additional "string to the bow" for the future.

I actually bought some VAL earlier in the year. I managed to get out with a very small profit...and then put the money in here sometime in March :0(

It's a joke how the market has reacted to the deal this week. It's going to cost us nothing.

Just compare that to another company I was watching (Valirx). Up until about 2 weeks ago they were bobbing around the 18.5p mark (about 11m mkt cap).

They RNS'd an evaluation deal yesterday where they will trial a university developed breast cancer treatment at their own expense (at a cost to them of around 75k). If the results are good then they get the option to license it on pre-agreed terms.

It doesn't say what those terms are nor does it rate the chances of success. Today they closed at 29.5p (mkt cap 19m)

Figure that out.

The Oxilio deal across the line is a positive (even if the terms aren't great/known) at least someone has demonstrated belief in the product. It seems that they are not only willing to risk the money of whatever backers they have but also that of their friends, family and associates.

I also welcome both the interview and AR's small investment as positives too. The CEO appears to be delivering on her word to see things through before she goes. It is also good to hear that things are still going well in testing (I just hope they have been able prioritise the most difficult/uncertain tests early on so that what remains is less likely to yield any nasty surprises).

I'm not convinced from the interview that the CEO's decision to resign was such a difficult one though, given that she didn't seem to offer any opportunity to be persuaded to stay. I get that people need to do what they've got to do but, at the end of the day, she was in a critical role in a company that was already fragile. It was a sledgehammer blow. I can't help but think that if things had been done differently then we would have seen stability in the share price form a few months ago and would now be witnessing the green shoots of recovery (following the deal).

We are where we are though. It is going to be difficult while question marks remain over whether or not we will be replacing the CEO but it would be nice to see some activity from Allenby/Walbrook right now. Whether that be through some kind of spin on how significant the Oxilio deal might be (within whatever parameters the terms allow) or, even better, by finally convincing someone to take up a notifiable interest.

Failing that, let's hope we don't have to wait until the end of December to get the results.

If only the estimates in the Allenby report were understated by same factor! Lol!

Good to see some support.

I guess we're clear of expected news for now then

I can't disagree with that.

The current price is an absolute steal. The chances of either a T/O or RTO must be elevated...but if it was an unwelcome risk then it would be all the more reason for the board to be bigging up the deal to try increase the sp as a defensive measure.

It is a truly strange situation where they seem reluctant to make anything of this. I don't think I can ever remember any deal being struck by a plc (let alone a global license for an oncology) where the price didn't show any again either before or after (I'm not counting the paltry move on the day). Truly staggering.

Given that (from the Q&A responses): "In the course of acting as the Company’s corporate broker, Allenby Capital speaks to major shareholders on a regular basis and keeps them informed of the Company’s latest developments" we can only assume that the notifiable holders are fully aware of what is going on and are not feeling as bemused/frustrated by all this, as we are.

You might also normally expect some kind of supportive buying from the directors following news like that (if the period was no longer closed). We are not quite in Q4 yet. Perhaps more news could be imminent?

I'm pretty sure Joanne Holland & Dan Gooding know exactly how these products work.

Hasn't done them any good so far though, has it?

What if the products aren't the problem?

"Soup many would think from your sudden change in stance maybe you’ve sold and now looking for a cheaper entry!!"

Funny how he assumes that everyone else is a trader trying to manipulate things to their own end. It doesn't even cross his mind that people are using this board for its intended purpose: to discuss events surrounding the company, take in different viewpoints and make up their own minds.

Maybe he just doesn't like people making up their own minds.

"I’m sure it’s been addressed by the company that after data release they will look for a replacement ceo??"

I'm pretty sure what Riddell said was something along the lines of "there is no point looking for a CEO until the data is released. No one is going to consider it while the data is pending".

That suggests to me that there is uncertainty. The data will hopefully be good but there is a chance it could be disappointing. You seem to being saying that it is a dead cert. Who is talking nonsense now?

"FX, Oxilio signing up doesn't need a CEO for NFX going forward. They have licensed the patent and will do the work themselves, NFX aren't involved now."

I thought you said recently that Nuformix were going to be involved with supporting the re-purposing? That does suggest a level of dependence (unless that agreement is with JH).

Remember it's just a thought Filter.

Oxilio could just be a side show that we are all focussed on because there is nothing else to think about. Maybe someone else is waiting for NXP002 and that's where they want to focus.

Blackwell forged the deal and the current BoD's hands may have been completely tied by what he agreed to. They don't seem to want to shout from the rooftops about it.

Who knows why that may be.

"If I were Oxilio (and had a secret backer), I'd be insistent on no disclosure of figures so as not to inflate the NFX sp, then I'd push to take out NFX before any data results for NXP002. Could easily get it for £10m."

It's not a pleasant thought at all but I have said before that there could be potential in all the products for applications in oncology, which might appeal to Oxilio. If you could pick them up on the cheap then you would bag all the IP and their potential for all future indications If it cost them 20m it could still pay for itself in ten years on royalty savings alone.

As for how easy it would be, I'm not sure how much of a fight the 3 notifiable shareholders would or could put up. I don't know if DG or JH paid for their shares or whether they received them as remuneration for setting up the company. If the latter is the case then they will make money whatever happens and if there is no other prospect in sight then a few hundred thousand now might appeal more than a long uncertain wait for millions.

All pure speculation but given the uncertainty of our position and the fact that we won't have a CEO soon, Oxilio obviously feel confident that their venture is safe regardless of what the future holds for Nuformix. Otherwise, why would they sign up.

Yes, you are right about there being two up front payments. This is from the December Half Year report:

"NXP001 - Oncology
An option to license the use of Nuformix patents covering NXP001, without the need for development commitment, was granted to Oxilio Ltd "Oxilio" and announced in September 2020. The agreement with Oxilio triggered an undisclosed up-front payment for an exclusive option period of 6 months from September 2020 and within which period the global licensing agreement can be triggered.

Should Oxilio exercise the option, Nuformix will licence its patent estate and know-how on NXP001 in return for an upfront payment and additional development milestones, with a royalty on net sales, capped at £2m per annum. Further updates will be provided in H1, 2021."

I'm not sure how you worked out that is was 100k but I'll take your word for it :O). We should have had some revenue from Vistagen but I would have thought it to be only a few tens of thousands at most.

Depressingly, it looks like all of the revenue from this years annual report was already included in the December half year, so sweet FA was earned in the second half.

We should be able to tell roughly how much it is if nothing else happens in between. It will probably just be bundled under Revenue but given that the revenue for all of last year was just £200k then it should stand out.

That is, of course, assuming that the up front wasn't actually already included in that 200k! The RNS yesterday did state:

"· On 23 September 2020, Nuformix granted an exclusive option to Oxilio to license NXP001 globally for oncology indications. This triggered an undisclosed upfront payment."

That intimates that it was due from that point so could have been received any time up until March 31st 2021.

However, the annual report states:

"On 23 March 2021 Oxilio exercised the option and a global license deal is under negotiation. Once agreed, Nuformix will license its patent estate and know how on NXP001 in return for an upfront payment, development milestones and a royalty on net sales, capped at £2 million per annum."

So it sounds from that that nothing was due until everything was agreed.

Still confusing.

"Why do you feel the need to know this information other than bash the price even more what benefit would it make giving you the information you are crying out to know?"

Let's just say that, for arguments sake, that the deal was structured so that milestones were paid per indication. It isn't 100% clear to us whether it is or not. For a company valued at just 8m it could be extremely significant to valuation. Any genuine LTH who is interested in more than a meagre periodical 2% return should be able to see that.

"Perplexed as to how ffx is know trying to negatively put down NXP002 although it has nothing to do with NXP001"

I'm not trying to put anything down. These are just musings with fellow posters about what may or may not be, mainly because that information is not very forthcoming from anywhere else. I never said NXP002 had anything to do with NXP001. I did post a link the other day to an article which suggested that Tranilast's anti-inflammatory properties MAY have potential value in oncology. This MIGHT be of interest to someone who is looking to re-purpose drugs for oncology. The sudden appearance of OXL002 on the scene yesterday simply made me wonder if Oxilio had decided to look into that. However, I am now happy with Soup's point that OXL001 & OXL002 may just be different indications of NXP001 and it may be nothing to do with NXP002.