Member Info for Foresight22

'So knowing HUR it could be sooner'

Knowing HUR - it will not be sooner as the BoD only give one sentence post all ops complete - driving forward M&M and SP below value. On a positive note - once Opportunities are discussed (not ambiguities, uncertainties & risks) such as more and greater Lancaster liftings, world class LC & WC productivities -- HUR investors will have arrived!

...it takes around 30 days to drill down to FB net rock - then have 40 days in the wilderness of BB claims & counter claims followed by limited WWW news on minority posts -- unfortunately not by HUR.

HUR - BoD Commercial Matters & Practices

ESPs were most initially run to help risk manage - completion/installation process which could have actually damaged natural PI - actually PIs have improved significantly. Now that the natural PI are better than DST, good to still have them (sunk cost) for future risk management. ESP life usually linked to time of use and 'abrasiveness' of produced fluids, fines or solids. So under natural flow - they could last the full life of these wells. After 3 months production - the interference concerns between 6 & 7Z seems to be not an issue in reality if the current lifting volumes are correct. Rock on...

...good HY results today! Tullow never great at production - 'too complex completions' -- not surprised.. Great exploration prospects - Tullow always great at exploration. CEO still too hooked up on Africa - getting net debt down can only be delivered by selling Ghana, ha-ho.

Great ppt on Guyana - official results first well mid August - but assume that is with DST(?), that means could be in reservoir in days. ECO twitted today - so must be very close (unofficially). Tullow BoD did seem very happy - even if "not in reservoir - yet".

...simply better to produce wells on natural flow with simple DD constraints - current rates based on PIs not onerous on reservoir. ESPs unless variable drive will deliver higher rates => greater DD which is not the plan. Wells will still be cleaning up too - fractures may still be producing fines etal — so on natural flow can see some of these effects with downhole gauges.

Lot of guesstimates made by HE & CPR consultants on aquifer volume - but actually aquifer strength is more key to actual water breakthrough. On aquifer volume - highly unknown as WD just showed with extreme DD applied needed which still flowed formation water not aquifer(?) - lab work still ongoing on DST samples. WD had minimal losses while drilling - though Dr Rocks reports mud brine recovered - need to wait for final analysis. Aquifer quality most always poorer than reservoir quality - typically SNS aquifer around half reservoir quality. So aquifer acreage may be high but aquifer-water in place may be much less than HE have assumed in their simulations. Key is effective aquifer permeability - 1% ‘Porosity’ fractures could be 1000 times less permeable than 4% ‘Porosity’ fractures. With >300 million bible ‘seen’ to be ‘attached’ to current wells - only small minority would be aquifer.

...cannot fault UOG on this deal - looks like RH did not want to raise cash to move forward (Premier trying to move Falklands forward - cash calls for RH there) where obviously BL is prepared to scale up with large cash injection. AGM on 23rd September will be interesting - how much will BL be asking for us to stonk up??? No gain without pain.

...any news on when first target for Stena Forth will be expected to be drilled? must be soon?

HH,
Can see your in the dark too, with no official info - the temperature is still rising tonight - well ops at WD certainly made little sense BUT luckily HE - Spirit if they want to flow oil all they need to do is drill crestally. That’s good lesson to have learnt. Occasionally it’s best to ‘stop digging’ and just deliver. Sure that’s the plan now, all will be forgotten by next AGM... as Cuadrilla have found - unconventionals not that easy either. At least crestal FB wells flow at good rates, minimal DD, when they are drilled horizontally in Net Rock. With perched mobile formation water present clearly the n/G is not 1 as some would believe in some CPRs. Sure the temperature will stay humid for couple of days still...

'missing 4-10 psi'

Yes as HE say they have seen no pressure barriers/boundaries. Lancaster being spread over such a large area the DD 'While Flowing' takes some 3 times longer to recover than pressure build-up during 'Build-Ups' (which mathematically is considered negative flow rate equivalent) . If you think about the 'stone concept' - the pressure ripple needs to bounce of outer barriers before whole system can equilibrate. ie takes around 7 seconds for your bath water to be still once you exit it. Shame we all take showers now!

SG2,

'WD's horizontal section was just bl00dy bad luck'
I think HE experts were way over confident and thought fractures on seismic would go deeper than WD actually observed. Also think the perched water has caught them by surprise. Perched water not clearly stated in CPRs! Clearly WD only flowed predominantly perched water (mobile formation water) so worst than Dr Rocks previous paper on reservoir below structural spill. If mobile formation water pressure was very similar to oil gradient at that depth => perched water (if play CMD video a couple of times you can piece that together as what Dr Rocks actually said during 1:58!) Why HE cannot present more simply - probably means these issues have poor clarity even within HE. Seen this problem before in tight rocks - when drilled below SC. Lancaster perched water above SC.

'sidetrack requirement'
Thought this due to poor casing/cement ops (purely mechanical) - did not clean hole long enough before POOH to run casing and therefore could not get casing to bottom - therefore had to sidetrack. School boy error if true. This has never been officially stated by HE - and this is another failing of their M&M current strategy. This should have been clarified in WD RNS. WD should never have been part of Lancaster CMD on 11th July.

'drilled that location knowing that in terms of a future production well it had a decent probability of being a bum hole.'
HE had 78% chance of success so that in my book is 'near certain success'! So XXX-hole was not on their radar. If you look at CMD April 2017 'Lincoln oil down to' ppt - clearly fracture density/reservoir quality much poorer below structural closure (SC) - BUT - I guess because Resources estimated below SC were so large HE-Spirit thought without too much peer review of consequences to drill to appraise. If these Deep Resources were so interesting then Lincoln Deep should have been drilled - NOT WD. Unfortunately WD was EXPLORATION well! - not appraisal and WD must have found even poorer fracture system -- with perched water -- than seen in Lincoln discovery well - hence my BB tweets months back about: were HE really going to drill first exploration horizontal well in history to discovery 1 billion BO field - not drilling pilot hole.

So it does seems like lots of school boy errors which probably means now lots of bunker mentality at HE & Spirit, when actually, EPS going better than expected (because more of horizontal sections flowing) & LC & WC will be successful if drilled crestally as possible - plus maybe drilling twice as long as achieved previously to effectively lower necessary DD plus to placate more effects if producing new perched water. As well 6 is higher on structure than 7Z seems - less mobile formation water the more crestal the horizontal - is the obvious new model.

At the next AGM - all this will be lovely again and HUR can serve us 007 videos and we will all be happy. OGA will be calling HE the new darling of the NS.

..more reserves than just Lancaster?

When LC complete FB will be heading towards 100 MMBO reserves...
When WC commercial well/flowed - need another 40,000 BOPD FPSO....
When Halifax commercial well/flowed - can move over AM and replace with big FPSO (bigger boat needed - to flow Lancaster & Lincoln)...

..always surprised by HUR SP!, but if non believers still think Halifax, Lincoln and Warwick not reserve book-able then Tullow & BP SP not doing better - HUR not lagging them if all value just in Lancaster... equally poor SP.

...understand there is a balance here - but bearing in mind contingencies plus predicted 15% downtimes - with all sensors inplace HE can produce above predictions while still keeping full 'eyes-on-the-ball' if it turns out 15% downtimes do not realise - or steady production starts to wobble. Its not just the PR opportunities - its the fact that information IS in the public domain (PD), so issue is that HE need to up their game just to meet/give out more info just to achieve the bare minimum already in PD, rather than pursue strategy of M&M.

Some of additional info would also be helpful like publish interpretation of Production Tests during start-up rather than just PTA flow regimes; future lifting schedules based on predicted profile; current water cut in 7Z; when LC has drilled into top reservoir; ...

SG2

WD: Fracture density decreases with depth below structural closure as HE currently models (?)

Great news! ...so very strange that HUR BoD do not use these 'events' to provide information which will be in the 'public' domain - why don't they say 'XXX BO lifted, next lifting in YY days; Lancaster wells averaging rates of AA & BB (+ ZZ Water Cut)...' BoD just loves M&M.

Need to watch OGA website for the first production rates (three months lag) which HE still has not shown in any ppt yet but will be in public domain very soon. Well before next CMD in January. What are they playing at?

..still chance that Lancaster and Halifax fracture systems are not connected. Having perched water in Lancaster might have increased chance of separateness, giving potentially insight into contact differences.

PA seemed to be on location with AM longer than AS, sounds very good news on the way..

..more fallout from WD, seems to explain silence from moneypenny on FB well results today and maybe explains Dr Rocks CMD show. Experiment tofar - hopefully lesson well learnt for next two years - maybe we get decent HUR RNSs too!. ‘No publicity - bad publicity’, will take Centrica 2-3 months to put data room together by then LC & WC drilled; Iran issues not going away so OP will be strong unless Trumpy tells RSA to open taps again... between now and next CMD in January - having open data room would be good news if HUR BoD keep pursuing M&M strategy...

With wells having much improved PIs due to more of the horizontals flowing - AM has more storage than the 350,000 BO liftings, slightly surprised HE do not flow well 6 at increased rate to fill to the spare capacity. Then if there is some 15% downtime - no effective loss in production - ‘take’ from storage. Wells have flowed nearly 3 months now, with Iran issues good time to produce oil! HUR needs so good news

Perched water is an issue for uncertainty - not risk as long as HE only thinking about developing 1 billion BO reserves. As we are trying to get from 37 to 100 million just need to drill as crestal as possible. Easy buoys keep hauling - no more experimenting however extreme. p10 of CMD pdf not perched water from FB in early years but from sands above.