Member Info for Foresight22

...let's say you are as technical as R-T. You are worried that 75% resources lost by WD:
Current Reserves
37 MMBO 2P = £860 million

Current Resources
1.5 billon BO Resources x (1-0.75) = 375 million BO reserves GLA
2.0 billion BO Resources x (1-0.75) = 500 million Bo reserves GLA + GWA (WC success!) = 500 million BO reserves
375 - 500 million BO reserves @$10/BO = $3.75 - $5 billion BO.

Man, WWN should be xxxxxxxx bricks based on your analysis - having a nervous breakdown! Call for a doctor ASAP!

Why not watch some Roger on TV... have a drink.

..interesting thought - so 20,000 BOPD GLA oil production valueless(?).

BoD Success = f (SP) => MC => Net Worth

Tribunal Verdict?

Roger = Tennis (for non oilers)

...fully understand why was ‘so terse’, just like Roger & Tiger, R-T makes mistakes some very costly to SP; still worth watching & LTH. Roger on again today! R-T on next week!! Life is great!!!

Oil Column = Discovery of Oil (for non oilers)

MC £860 million
2P Reserves = 37 MMBO
£23.24/BO
$30/BO
1.5 - 2 billion BO Contingent Resources = £ zero value.

Logical?

Looking forward to some meaty RNS and pdfs next week. Hope HE are finalising their presentations not sitting in the sun - flexitiming. SP still below pre-FOIL which makes no sense. Next lifting must be soon too. Cannot believe BB postings still saying Warwick dry - obviously do not understand what an oil column means. Dr R-T really needs to speak to non oilers, or the BoD need to consider their positions.

https://youtu.be/MiZnd_U1qRI

https://youtu.be/wuNhqTX4gyw?t=82

Finally spudded! years in waiting over... transformative prospectivity. 40 days but two target accumulations. Start of great things again for Tullow.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eco_atlantic_oil_gas_plc/news/rns_widget/story/rgkq93w

I personally think HE and Spirit strategy will change very little post WD, certainly lower HUR SP is something both companies care very little about at the moment. HUR will only worry about SP when they have to make FFD decision if IO never happens. The current state of marmiteness is a concern that IO will deliver all value to new owner. From a SP point of view HUR has disappointed a lot - too much focus on Rocks not informative RNSs. Why not issue RNS saying when next lifting planned? Technically WD probably changes no operations in the next two years. We all will watch the next two wells now with more ‘interest’ - but even with new production success may not now mean much SP uplift above 64p.. biggest issue in 12 months time - without IO, HUR not likely to be sizeable to raise monies do FFD, not sure Spirit is either. 100million BO reserves may still leave SP below 100p. 500million BO would shift above 100p but that’s 2021. It’s going to be a long Summer...

"1) They simply drilled in wrong part of the basement with poor fracture connectivity."
WD was not first choice if HUR were paying. Only drilled first as Spirit paying - so gauges inplace to confirm pressure connectivity between Lincoln Crestal and Warwick Crestal. This was not risked properly as obvious now in hindsight, deep reservoir not fractured enough to be productive at this location, even though oil reservoir. Need sufficient fracture/ft along well to get well cleaned-up when drilling with losses current practice.

"2) Warwick and Lincoln not actually connected. Therefore overall reserves likely less."
This does not matter - producers will be needed in Warwick & Lincoln - distances are so great. Tie-ing back Lincoln Crestal next year to AM would give this information within months, but not definitively. If separate maybe recovery would be higher. Under Operation Interruption - who cares!

"3) The models are not as accurate as well all hoped."
Think they are - but best rock at crest, weathered zones + fractures. Warwick & Lincoln Crestal wells will prove this. If WD had worked - we all could have gone on holiday without any issues left to resolve. Based on GWA CPR - Warwick Crestal looks more fractured than Lincoln Crestal so should have been drilled next . Why are HE not drilling longer laterals to ensure more productive producers - this has not been discussed on any BB, nor by HE. If drilling more fractured areas - resources post well should increase, eg Warwick Crestal.

"4) Drilling a horizontal well without a prior vertical well was a mistake."
Fractures interpreted on seismic so not easily converted accurately to Depth as are measured in Time. Near Vertical wells should drill some fractures which can then be re-drilled when drilling the horizontal wellbore - ensuing optimal depth. Dr R-T experimentation may have delivered two poor producers now - its may be not easily to point the operations in a different direction. A new well on Halifax may need to be tested through cemented casing/liner - if that does not work - you can always drill on and test that open-hole. Be interesting how much of the past operations will be discussed on 9th or 11th. Most likely it will all be just rocks.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/ArticlePrint.aspx?id=201906270700055623D

Preston New Road -average Bowland porosity only 2-4% -- non commercial. Only hope Millstone Grit, was it cored?

from PESGB: Case Study Lancaster, July 2019 Dr R-T [Talk on 9th July 2019]

'Lancaster is a conventional reservoir in that it can be produced without artificial stimulation and the trapping mechanism requires a seal of low permeability rock. ...The reservoir is classified as a type 1 Fractured reservoir in that the effective porosity and permeability is provided by a fracture network with no material contribution from intergranular or intercrystalline porosity. Hurricane’s exploration model is that Lancaster forms a continuous reservoir with the contiguous discovery Halifax and that the overall trap is formed by a buried hill draped by Cretaceous mudstones and laterally sealed by the Westray and Brynhild Fault Zones.

It is acknowledged that many type one fractured reservoirs provide drilling and data acquisition challenges atypical to conventional reservoirs having intergranular porosity and permeability. The bulk of these challenges are caused by formation invasion by drilling fluids. Lancaster is no exception and the inherent challenges are compounded by Hurricane’s drilling strategy that utilises over weighted brine and a philosophy of drilling with losses. Whilst this approach achieves a safe and efficient means of drilling the resultant deep and pervasive invasion precludes the use of resistivity logs to estimate water saturation and can also, preclude the use of wireline-based pressure to establish formation pressure. Hurricane has developed formation evaluation strategies designed to overcome the limitations of deep invasion and have acquired sufficient data to model both the initial oil in place and forward production to the standards provided by PRMS guidelines delimiting 37 million barrel 2P reserve and 486 million barrel oil equivalent base case (2C) contingent resource.

The Lancaster field is currently producing through a two well early production system which is designed to access a 37 million barrel volume over the next six years and to provide early dynamic data that will help to characterise the long term production characteristics of the reservoir. This lecture will provide an insight into Lancaster’s reservoir characteristics, how Hurricane has modelled the reservoir and what data acquisition/analysis programmes are being considered for the future.'

ps Halifax 2C Contingent Resources 1.235 billion BO [100% HUR]; Total Contingent Resource in GLA = 1.721 billion BO [2C]

Not surprised by poor results - if BoD think their problems will be solved by cutting costs on 1000 products then they all need to go! Stock too long on shelves even when that space is occasionally full... simple really, why will the BoD not shop at Tesco for a week.

WD Results
'poorly connected section of the fracture network within the oil column'

...oil column = discovery (ie net rock). That's what Dr R-T will tell us. Rona Ridge made up of weathered rock & fractures. Need both, especially latter without being full of drilling mud & cuttings stopping effective oil flow. WC will rekindle your confidence.

"In Guyana, Tullow plans to drill two consecutive exploration wells in the second half of 2019 on the Orinduik licence with the Stena Forth drillship which is currently in transit from Ghana. The first well will target the Lower Tertiary Jethro prospect and drilling is expected to commence at the end of June and take approximately 40 days. The rig will then move to drill the Upper Tertiary Joe prospect. The Rowan EXL II jack-up rig has also been contracted to drill the Cretaceous Carapa prospect in the non-operated Kanuku licence and is expected to commence operations in August. "

..so why no spud RNS, everyone gone on holiday? Anyone at home? Hello?

“We’re getting a drilling team from Petrofac into our new office, and we’ll have Spirit Energy geologists and engineers joining the team. They’re working on three wells back-to-back and it is important to have the same team planning and executing seamlessly.”

Seamless team working together - not seamless drilling campaign... lot of learnings from WD. At least rest of well ops in 2019 will be less eventful - by the book stuff.

...helps but not on risk. Both WC & LC being drilled without pilot near vertical section to ensure horizontal well is placed optimally. School boy errors again... This could be looonnngg Summer. Glad AM will be spraying oil into loads of tanks, petro-monies brimming over at the banks, rock-on babe!- Lancaster rock-on.