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..how wonderful hindsight is - had new look at GWA CPR - Figures 7.3 & 7.4 look insightful. WD is pictured to have WAY less fractures than Lincoln or Warwick Crestal locations! In fact Warwick Crestal looks amazing based on HE geological model -- issue must be tie-back length to AM. Shame HE BoD do not have xxxxs to swop to WC, not LC. Could then have had better worded RNS such as 'WD was light oil discovery - proving up HE forward program at money-penny's expense to achieve commercial rates from WC. LC is now most likely to be tied back to AM - but the gauges left in WC will hopefully support Warwick and Lincoln being one giant oil field. love & kisses, 007. ps everyone can now go on holiday & relax' ...reality more M&M, plus SP at below 45p!

ps Exploration Geological Chance Factor for WD was 77% - discovery made - net oil bearing rock discovered {'HUR wording full oil column found'}. If was Pwell 77% - then yes some posts were right - the geological model had certainly over predicted well success - or was this well simply not robustly thought through? ..experimentation, ...over confidence; ...

HH just look at all the wellogs that HE have published in their presentation material. Always an estimated Effective Porosity log curve. Interestingly this effective porosity is very homogeneous over the whole wellbore. That’s how HE are estimating STOIIP based on 4 - 6% effective porosity. WD clearly was not that porous - we shall see when HE publish on 11th.

This was first Exploration well drilled horizontal! Never To be repeated again. Near vertical should have found some fractures plus logged porosity. No this was school boy errors. Just as not saying WD was discovery - net rock was oil bearing. SP fall is due to company being even more marmite now. Rock on 9th and 11th....

SP reaction daft - WD was Dr R-T experimenting with Spirit money! He always was concerned with producing below closure because of increased water saturation, etal. He was just over confident - always drill vertically first before planning horizontal! Elementary school boy error. At least WD is a discovery - RNS should have said that up front! Another school boy error.

So WD is discovery, Contingent Resources up, yet SP down, well done Dr R-T. Running E&P company more than loving rocks. What was the BoD thinking too..

..will be interesting how much Prospective Resources HE move to Contingent Resources now WD is light oil discovery. 9th & 11th will be interesting info flow days. RNS was not that well written - more M&M..

Dr Rocks appearance at next PESGB was only announced at the last meeting on 11th June - talk on Danish FB. Might have been scheduled before but was announced as if just confirmed. Dr Rocks would have known WD had flashed.

...if the rumours on DST are true then sounds like HE has learnt a lot! and may wants to run a cement liner next time - at least partially down the horizontal. Need to think more as i’m sure their experts are now. Not having CT seems strange - drilling below closure means Water Saturation’s are higher - therefore effective oil perms will be less. Hence best to test inclosure. Find it very hard to believe WD not discovery - Dr R-T belief was major faults were not sealing - or has this giant squid drunk all of Lincoln Oil too?.. once you damage fracture reservoirs it’s very hard to clean-up even with CT as there is no matrix to flow either. With increased water saturation too - HE have lot to think about. Next two wells are drilled in closure -so this issue (if these rumours are true) will not be encounter again until FFD when all of us will not care. As someone posted - this might be a good/last time to buy SP on the cheap... having an early WD RNS is not HUR (M&M) style..

..on the mud weight, OGA surely would be wanting minimum over balance mud, drilling a fracture reservoir! Do not want to loss all the mud... HE must have known the reservoir was normally pressured. ARCO had discovered oil way before HE started drilling the basement. Claire Basement would have been good analog too for pressures.

More positive on other BB ADVFN..

...maybe ran out of time on schedule to complete (full) DST. If info on flash sample correct then WD is discovery - only going to test if adding value. Only planning on tie-ing one well back to AM next year - got three locations to choose.. RNS will be interesting read!

Oilwell,
Interesting post. Sounds like HE has been poking about to find best sweet spot to produce! Hope you are right that they are still drilling. Been a lot of ---- on this BB about WD since the first sidetrack. Thanks for posting.

...probably someone in Aberdeen. Flex working been routine for last 10 years. Not surprised. HE fully funded with DST on WD, two more wells to play Dr Rock on; AM 10+ more productive years fun there. Why be in Surrey office when you can sit in your garden watching it all from there...

Not surprised SP today with so much M&M! ...Sounds like HE have run an MDT to measure pressures and have taken a downhole sample (resulting in PVT analysis) which confirms WD is a discovery. If this was recent the well could still be technically in the drilling phase, preparations ongoing for imminent DST... 45p - then - 58p - then 64p - then 52. - then xx - then XXXp. As we learnt from Mushroom FOIL in May - just needed HUR AGM RNS. Now waiting for TMD @PESGB on 9th July. My SP prediction on 9th July is somewhere between 45p - 122p. M&M. Is this really a good way to run a billion pound company?...

‘Marmite & Mushrooms’

Two main reasons for current low SP is (1) the perception that Fractured Basement reservoirs are new - particularly offshore so investors have been put off until 6 -12 months steady production has been banked - which also underpins FFD commitment as per Dr R-T comments. Therefore HUR is marmite - either love it or not. (2) Recent HUR RNSs have been one sentence at best - FOIL was achieved - A lifting happened - Having CMD but minor shareholders not invited - WD Discovery (?) - majority of LT investors are therefore in the dark - condition ‘mushrooms’.

Hence TMD (9th) - Lancaster, CMD (12th) hopefully finally robust data and HE analysis will be reported - just bringing value acceptance of the full 3 billion BO Resources from 12 months to 6 months ‘should’ move the SP. At TMD - Dr R-T is presented the geological model used to predict future production & ultimate reserve estimates. So reducing M&M is a good start..

..I will point out though AGM rooms '...' can only be confirmed by UOG future action. So as their actions become transparent - we can discuss based on fact.

Jamaica
Your text B99 was all about UOG. What about Tullow? Tullow have been marketing Jamaica for some time now. Yesterday's RNS showed they have drilled up Ghana, polishing that asset off with good increased production. Jamaican Team different from Guyana Team so they will want to pursue their own aim. Tullow Guyana has 3 wells, first results 35-40 days - adding 4 billion BO; refocusing Tullow firmly on South America. Kenya FDP delayed. Monies flooding in at 90,000 BOPD. Does Tullow really NEED a FOA to drill Jamaica? What's UOG going to do if Tullow does go ahead - self funding... UOG may just find Elvis! by then...

..as you well know the official AGM was over in minutes!

Being a Lancaster ('only') presentation - this frees Dr R-T from having to get 'money-penny' approval for their JV bit.. Would be a bit silly to give presentation on Tuesday presenting how HE are predicting future Reserves & Resources in Lancaster, only on Friday to give those numbers out! to a bunch of invitees-only. Presentation also covering ongoing reservoir surveillance so pre-FOIL data must surely be presented.

'Technical Market Day'

https://www.pesgb.org.uk/events/london-evening-lecture-july-2019/?inf_contact_key=621a7fc6397e99392d5b70416c5e412a4dfbc39d7283b2cb89d5189540b69330

Our own TMD - 'invite-only' free, non invitees £15. Who needs CMD non invitation event - 'hear it first here'. Cannot believe Dr R-T agreed to do this if not better than planned success! Probably need RNSs before too..

SP drifting again. $66/BO should mean now back at 230-250p; Guyana 4 billion BO adding additional 80% upside, value acceptance in 40 days. Do investors not like the BoD? Selling Ghana shining assets would elim8nate the debt, what’s not to love about Tullow NOW?

If you had attended AGM, your comment on Tullow re. Jamaica focus does not align with fact. Eco doing alright with exploration. On TRP every serious investor left post Repsol xxxxed-up. On Tullow exploration success - i’ll hold my horses back for 35 - 40 days. Let’s continue this BB theme then! Tullow will drill Jamaica if it’s robust as Guyana which would align with AGM rooms ‘...’.