Member Info for Foresight22

'dates move by 2-3 weeks'

...must have dropped more than hammer! clanger? ...HUR seem very accident prone this year, new partnership?, ... should have been drilling main horizontal this week? ...hope they have not forgotten they are drilling WD before weather window closes! ...

Smaller the fractures - the easier for drilling fluid to effectively plug any noticeable losses. Whether it was solid fill from mud-drilling depends on the mud equipment at surface. Most drill solids should have been removed at surface.

Talking about losses... still waiting news on LC losses, anyone?

No one said Exploration nor Appraisal was easy! GCoS of 77% for WD was correct as oil was discovered (OGA definition). So based on GCoS WD was success. HOWEVER WD did not flow oil (sample was recovered) - so Pwell was failure which was not risked! (Not sure Dr Rocks was expecting no flow) Net Rock in Warwick is oil bearing, but no Net Pay in WD well. Technical success of finding oil unfortunately does not pay the bills nor helps SP. Commercial Success does! ...commercial learnings are don’t drill below Structural Closure and stop doing experiments when investors want production - ie money flows.

'encounter flowable hydrocarbons'

Note 'flowable' does not mean actual tested flow. CoS by this definition is geological COS. ie net rock with enough effective porous reservoir to flow. Pwell for appraisal (discovery) well usually having minimum flow rate criteria for success - proving net pay => commerciality.

'Qatar Deal'

..does anyone know what Total got - was with an acreage swop?

ohg,
why would Eco want to sell out at $0.1-1/BO Prospective - Contingent Resources. Smart would be drill 5 more discoveries first => end 2020-21 sell? Namibia is the widows grave yard..

'some news will be issued around now'

...due to HUR M&M, HUR RNS will not be till rig move time - based on past history. BB looking for external vision of mud losses, completion being run, flaring-in-the-wind, boat action full of acid stock, lunar eclipses, moon landing; then HUR RNS of LC success one sentence - 'we told you so'.

‘Extensive column’
...sounds naughty. Commercial rates are due to the effective permeability of the fracture messwork drilled in the wells which is best crestally. Extensive column adds to long term ‘maintenance’ of the initial rates achieved per well - not the initial rates.

‘commercial oil’
..well if your in finance, just assume sort of investment efficiency ratio, take 3. So cost of tie back to AM a few million, multiply by 3 and so around few more million. Divide by $22/bo, divide by 365, divide by 3 = around 2000 bopd. Key is this should be within natural drawdown limit which HE has never told us about...

‘Why not tested before’
Very interesting posts, this is obviously history and behind HE now but did seem an issue at the time. Understand the drill only for Rocks info, but GOR and Oil viscosity etc also were not really proven till AM EPS. Think HE missed out by not doing limited testing and also flowing wells they did test not for long enough. All water (or oil) under the bridge now, well in one week anyhow. Good posts.

‘experts’
...not everyone was happy with WD predrill! Experts are based on track record - WD had no track record drilling below structural closure. Poor results seen in Tight Resource plays too - be very weary on experts, and over confidence in these cases. Perched water was not predicted either! Luckily that not a production issue - just concern which over time should disappear. LC does have track record with two Lancaster producers, so sleep easy or Centrica SP will fall even more...

If you followed previous posts - 19th August was planned end TD drilling, so awaiting losses NOW... that was link.

SP still getting cheaper... so strange market does not understand significance of Guyana to Tullow future! Joe soon...

Tullow success in Guyana hopefully will help Jamaica Prospect being drilled. Economies of scale key with drilling - let's hope close proximity will encourage Tullow to consider moving forward later in year to commit to drill!

Exxon probably will not be able to develop HH without Tullow drilling. Conveniently 'fault' on Block boundary. Looks smallish on Tullow side (around a hundred MMBO) - developed would need Unitisation so based on other opportunities will probably be drilled last. Key will be the avo response in HH and how well that ties in with Jethro. All great news. Much bigger fish need drilling now!!

..certainly not Tullow - SP like HUR soooo cheap! ..no one loves Resources anymore. Only another some 10 prospects to drill in Guyana. Come on LC! your turn next, then WC, then new boat over WC, ... UOG already secured, not bad year..

Jethro-1 just start - SP is very cheap, wait till all three Guyana wells are discoveries! ..Tullow needs to refocus on South America - sell Ghana (once smart well sorted) to pay for developing these 4 billion BO resources in Guyana. Sure sands will be better than Exxon's - so resources should be very conservative. Great few years ahead - even acquisitions!

Great new - but - unfortunately missed telephone conference.. ECO BB mentioning flow test - presume that was wireline - not DST. Any insights, has DST happened or are Tullow testing next year? Well done all!!!!

'Exploration in the (WoS) region may lead to the partial revival of the UK Continental Shelf'

Interesting post, thanks MS,

Not sure all correct. UKCS has been explored nearly to extinction! over last thirty years of high oil prices. Long offset seismic was proven up early 2000's. 1 TCF gas is only some 175 million BOE so near Laggan Discovery nice - but not significant - costs enormous due to water depths. Cragganmore is uncommercial without Lyon which proved to be dry - CNOOC may be regretting committing to drilling before knowing about that! CNS HPHT discovery Glengorm was good discovery as is in only 86m water depth - but took two or three wells to discover, plus more to appraise(?).

So future of UKCS is from appraisal of FB! that's us. Now OGA are still flogging big 'E' but HUR could save their 'P'. OGA claimed they would add some 3-4 billion BOE to UKCS when set-up. Certainly UK Shale not working... Turning FB Resources into Reserves - not easy as HE/Spirit now finding but that's all down to drilling enough crestal producers, proving consistent well spacing, operating track record of two or more FPSOs. All within reach.. OGA target not reachable without FB now.

..well Eco must have spoken to Energynow.