Member Info for flundra

Always fun to speculate on sp. I suspect March will be dull, with SP around current levels. It's already too low to risk shorting imo. I might put a long DFB on if we get to mid-March without improvement, and close it late March after the SP jumps upon the announcement of funding being sorted and a couple more juicy contracts bagged ha ha I wish. I hope all the bad news this FY about trading/contracts/earnings is now already out. Presumably all the full year results announcements will come after end March.

My guess is that the basic risk analysis, and factual stuff like looking at accounts and order books, and producing and analysing business plans and projections etc, will have been done and ticked off by now. RBS’s conclusion being what a great company, and that we are going to support it going forward! At this stage it’ll be more about finalising facility terms, and RBS’s credit committees getting comfortable with what HAYT and the RBS account managers are proposing.

That's a good RNS imo. A proper timeframe (a whole month, and a long one at that) to sort out the £2.7m repayments. Not just an extension to Friday! And the wording in the last few RNSs has been to "ensure" suitable long term financing with its "supportive" bank, ie "ensure" perhaps implies they're a long way down the track to sorting this already, and is better than "negotiate" for example, which could have indicated they're still miles apart with RBS.

SP’s looking ugly today. The end of next week can’t come soon enough. Let’s hope for an RNS confirming payment/re-financing of the borrowings now due 28 Feb, and settled long term debt facilities going forward. And say some onwards-and-upwards positive order book updates, and an express re-commitment to the progressive dividend, to be funded by debt if needs be in the short term. That should send the SP nicely back up again. NOT please another kick of the can down the road, with another short extension of the Feb payment, which might spook the market further, even though there doesn’t seem to be any underlying cause for concern.

I also wonder whether there's been an element of squeezing as much bad news into FYE March '17 as possible (eg with delay in securing contracts into 2018 and writing 2017 off as a bad year), which might have contributed to the sharp sp drop. I remain v positive on HAYT long term, but suspect it might limp along for a bit. Buying time imo.

Nervy times, and a further finance update due next week, but very cheap now imo. Bought another 9,861 shares this morning.

...and there's £4m from unissued loan notes earmarked for future growth opportunities down the line (Dec RNS)

Interesting thought but less likely imo. The immediate job is almost done now with loan notes and debt. In nautical terms, HAYT should sail off again nicely now after a re-fit imo. I don't think it's a listing ship, nor will be looking to raise large amounts of cash in a bookbuild or any other way now. There's been lots of cap ex and the PB acquisition, now it's time to translate all that into building the order book and earnings.

So I guess we should see another finance update at the end of Feb/early March, which should confirm the £3m now due 28 Feb has been repaid, and a bit more cash might be raised under loan note issues to cover outstanding RBS facility repayments due to end March. Then onwards and upwards. Very oversold now imo.

over 9% down but I agree oversold now. Good to see the loan note raising a bit, but extending the deadline on the rest 2 weeks is a bit kicking the can down the road, and not very far at that. Not time to break out the champers yet, but time to buy imo

Agreed. This SP tumble is disappointing, perhaps caution or concerns around the short term operational integration and finance issues are winning over the excellent longer term fundamentals and prospects. I suppose exaggerated SP movements come with the small cap territory and sometimes you’ve just got to suck it up. And I guess you can’t expect to swallow and digest a business the size of Peter Brotherhood without a few burps and f*rts. I too hope another finance update follows soon – might help to settle nerves. I can see no material finance problems, and would like to see a strong update confirming a fully successful loan note issue (or good alternative), and perhaps a confident re-statement of the progressive dividend policy. Perfectly acceptable to fund that through RBS debt atm if needs be, imo.

Hi shareminator Good posts and I think I agree with all of what you say, apart perhaps from the first two lines. HAYT say that in November they agreed to repay £3m to RBS on 31 January. They don’t say that repayment was conditional on anything, eg success of the 3rd loan note issue (ie raising £3m under it). So HAYT is perhaps criticisable for committing to that repayment if they had no readily available cash on 31 Jan from other sources following the loan note issue falling short. I agree though that Plan B of renegotiation with RBS seems to have been readily achieved, and the business is sound, so we can infer no serious problems. But did they leave themselves potentially exposed there, if RBS hadn’t wanted to extend facilities for whatever reason? Maybe HAYT had other liquid funds it could have used for the Jan repayment, but chose to renegotiate the RBS loan terms instead, but that’s not how the RNS reads to me. I’ve been here for years and rate HAYT highly despite the current challenges. But maybe they’ve had an embarrassing short term cash-flow problem that could have been handled better. Good iii article.

Plenty of good stuff in the RNS but the finance update could be better. Great that there's support for a new loan note issue and negotiated repayment schedule, but not good perhaps to just about manage to avoid defaulting on the Jan repayment? Did the third loan note issue effectively fail? Might be a misprint but RBS being "supporting" is not as good as "supportive".

Yes, 2017 is potentially v exciting. Engie's arrival was great news, and steady newsflow would hopefully build good momentum

Website says effective interest 1.103%, via Northpet's 2.5%, AOT application under discussion. It would be good to see exploration in FG get under way again. I've been here since Wessex was on Plusmarkets, and another Zaedyus would be v welcome!

was that application successful do we know?

HNL's FG interest is smaller now I believe but success there would still move the dial. This from May 2016 RNS: Higher risk assets are to be spun out into a wholly owned subsidiary of HALO, Vermeer Exploration BV ("Vermeer"), including all licence interests in Western Sahara and French Guyana. ·    51% of Vermeer's shares are to be sold by HALO to a group of investors for a consideration of US$500,000; HALO will retain a 49% interest.

I'm not aware of anything specific. But Uranium is hot stuff atm, and most uranium stocks are on the up. Most of the commodities commentators seem bullish. Nuclear is tipped by many as THE clean energy of the future. China and others are going for it big time. Kazakhstan the biggest producer pledged this week to cut production by 10%, which nudged spot north, and long term prices are on the rise anyway.

Yes good news on the land acquisition, and yes it's taken a long time to get to this point. But are you saying it's wrong now to delay commissioning and/or that the partners are wrong in their assessment as to the optimum timing of first production? A good RNS and a good decision imo given the W market.

Alternatively... Can someone pour a jug of sangria down Steve Nicol please, and get him talking. It is nearly Christmas after all. Surely that land acquisition’s done, and he’ll be seeing the new year in by watching a concrete pour or something?! Seriously though, he could usefully get onto proactive investors say, raise the profile a bit, get that liquidity going. If commencement of construction is only 7 weeks away, he should be singing like a canary now. It’s a momentous event for a project like this. Take a leaf out of Paul Atherley’s book at BKY, the similar-stage mining project at Retortillo just a few miles away. Hardly a day goes by without him popping up somewhere.