Member Info for flundra

I’ve been mulling over the possible reasons for the SP declining over recent days, away from the merger price. Might it indicate increasing doubt over the approaching merger proceeding? That could perhaps be because (good) financial figures might be leaking, or suspected, boosting the No vote? Or the prospect of a MC inspired counter bid receding? Or it might reflect lack of real news, and suspicion that’s because bad news is being suppressed, or concern the ship is rudderless. I suspect the prevailing market view will be pessimistic because many interpret the delayed refinancing as difficulty refinancing. A board shake up is inevitable if merger doesn’t happen, meaning more volatility. PS I’m tempted to hold post-merger, for the reason you state, and because I like what I’ve seen of AVG so far anyway, even though right now (in the nicest possible way) I wish they’d b*gger off! I’d research AVG properly before selling, although have lost some confidence in ELB (who might get a board role). Generally he’s done a great job at HAYT over the years, but has dropped the ball this year imo.

Hi CN so was the "f" word not mentioned at all?! Hope the drinks and canapes were nice even if the talk was disappointing!

A good tip of course, and I loved the way the Mail on Sunday upgraded our MD to Paul Hatherley. Much better than that cockney we've got at the moment - Paul 'atherley lol!

The 3 most important issues at the moment are funding, funding and funding. Baht is of course quite right, but BKY/PA is usually prepared to say something helpful about funding in these investor evenings, eg about timings, preferred approach, levels of interest, etc if asked. Often in the Q+A. The question should be asked in the Q+A if not covered in the presentation, otherwise can someone please corner PA over the Prosecco afterwards - his tongue might also be looser then and when the cameras are off.

Also I think it's about now we're expecting news of a standalone off-take agreement to be announced. A US utility perhaps, given what PA's been saying. And the main fund raise announcement by the end of summer. Most likely sale of minority interest near NPV coupled with another off-take agreement with the same investor I think.

One frustration here is absence of financial news. We haven’t really had any news about cashflow since 31 March, ie nearly 4 months ago. The AR was very positive re FY 2018, eg improving sector conditions, record order book, low capex. Also the principal reason for low revenue in 2017 was explained by ELB as a cash flow issue, ie the orders expected to be completed in H2 2017 hadn’t gone away but were just “shifted to the right”, so those orders should now be being completed with the cash from them flowing in. So now here we are nearly 4 months on. The news about cash in 2018 can only be good can’t it? Anyone else suspicious not to have heard anything? I guess what must be disclosed atm depends on the applicable rules re mergers and what the bod wants to tell us. No surprise perhaps that a majority bod, wanting this merger to go through, is lying low. Not sure what to do about this, short of going to Luton with my shovel and electrodes...

If refinancing were impossible or even difficult, you surely wouldn’t have a senior bod member in Maurice Critchley not recommending this merger. It’s more about this rather nebulous concept of bod members’ “commercial assessment” imo. The split means there’s a very strong view HAYT’s future is best left in its own hands. The absence of news suggests to me that dealing with refinancing and good news is being delayed/suppressed. I agree the sp might fall if the merger doesn’t go ahead, but imo only temporarily, because we’d also probably see a swift refinancing and hopefully release of order book/cash collection news. That will be being withheld atm. There’d be board changes too causing more uncertainty. PS Where's our chum shareminator?! I don't know where his info came from but I think he was suggesting the merger option was being pursued because otherwise a placing was necessary to recapitalise, but this was being resisted by the bod (minus MC) as they lacked funds to participate and were playing dog in the manger by going for merger so as not to dilute themselves in the placing, and so that ELB could get a bod position at AVG. Sorry if I've misquoted you shareminator.

I think the current position is still: The aggregate percentage of the issued share capital of HTG represented by those irrevocable undertakings and letters of intent provided by HTG Shareholders, as detailed in Appendix 3 of the Announcement, remains unchanged at 31.3 per cent. and 11.7 per cent. of the HTG issued share capital, respectively. So by no means nailed on. Vote NO!

I don't think we know yet. I've just realised there's a separate website for takeover announcements: http://htg.global/investor-relations/takeover-code-requirements Amongst other things it confirms Mr Sneller is voting in favour

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/180743/berkeley-energia-move-to-construction-phase-at-salamanca-as-crusher-arrives-180743.html

Hi Shareminator On the cash issue, you may be right about the need for recapitalisation and directors resisting dilution, but I’ve always seen it more positively, and think revenues and settled debt/overdraft facilities are achievable and will suffice, and enable continuation of the dividend even. The difference in monthly payments between servicing £22m of debt and a more conservative pile cannot be more than a few £10ks. That is entirely manageable, surely, until revenues pick up, which they should be doing by now anyway. But I agree it’s becoming more difficult to form a view, the longer this radio silence goes on. I’m not sure how many PIs there are but I think everyone posting on this BB is voting against the deal. That might represent the general view. Hopefully other PIs are informed and perhaps read the BBs even they don’t post. There seems to be little or no commentary on the deal out there in the press, for sure. It would be good to see some. Richard Sneller’s direct phone number is on his disclosure forms. He owns 6%+. He’s maybe a nominee/trustee for a third party (he’s a fund manager by profession), but what’s his view I wonder? I’m still hopeful the deal will be kicked into touch. It really makes no sense, unless the debt burden cannot be refinanced on reasonable terms imo. That question is price sensitive info, and as we are being told that RBS is supportive and we have not heard refinancing is impossible (we’d know by now if it was imo), I would assume we can refinance, and the only reason for delay is heel dragging by the BoD pending the vote on merger. On balance the other business pointers are also clearly positive. The nuclear sector is rightly becoming very significant, and the opportunities there are vast. China and India alone represent a huge burgeoning market, even if one were to take Japan USA Korea and Europe out of the equation. The BoD seem to have donned their tin hats and retreated to their bunker, presumably to tough it out till the vote. But the deal might fall through, HAYT is still a business, and they should come out and deliver on their ongoing duties to shareholders and stakeholders in the meantime. They’re surely legally bound do this despite a pending merger, and even if they’re pulling in different directions on the deal, or not wanting to be diluted etc. They should get on with the refinancing and/or other fund-raising, keep the order and other news coming, and agree and announce the dividend policy. I think they’re playing a bit fast and loose atm tbh imo. Regards

Agree shareminator. Perhaps time for an activist shareholder to take a stance with MC and derail this offer. I'd also be perfectly comfortable servicing the debts for a while till revenues build back up. The debt was reasonably to be expected, and the whole point of all that investment was to improve performance in the operational facilities, grow revenues and shorten the revenue cycle! And it's working! Can HAYT really not manage £100k or so a month for a short while? I'm sure they can. Revenues are over £60m+ pa and improving! We've done all the hard work, now we seem to be trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory! Now is not the time to lie back with our legs apart. HAYT should be refinancing right now, or come clean and tell us that they have tried but been unable to secure terms with RBS or other banks.

Sort out the refinancing now asap please BoD. I very much doubt it is in HAYT's interest to delay refinancing any longer. It probably never was. The BoD must be careful not to breach their duties here, for example to us as shareholders, to act in the best interests of the company. I cannot believe this inordinate delay is down to any difficulties obtaining reasonable terms from our supportive bank, or other bank. I think it is perhaps the BoD preserving the status quo in the hope the merger proceeds and the issue can be buried. I wonder what level of shareholder support this merger would get, if refinancing occurs now, and the curious recent silence is filled by good contracts and operational news. Might support fizzle out?

Very shabby stuff from HAYT. The Annual Report basically seems to be saying we’ve weathered the storm of a difficult year, taken the astute risk of making significant investment in Luton and PB, but despite a supportive bank, improving market conditions, and these investments starting to bear fruit with a record order book....we’re throwing the towel in, and selling you all down the river for peanuts. It makes absolutely no sense at the moment, and is the worst possible thing to do, just as the orders are flowing in and the investment about to pay back. Well done Maurice for resisting. I’ll be voting against. The driver for the deal seems to be the weakness of the HAYT balance sheet (and the strength of AVG’s), but that weakness is fully explained, and with a supportive bank and all trends positive, success from here seems almost nailed on. “In providing its [independent] advice to the HTG Directors, Akur has taken into account the commercial assessment of the HTG Directors” That makes me a bit suspicious of the BoD, because the commercial assessment (as opposed to the financial assessment) in the Annual Report seems wholly positive going forward. The more I see of AVG the more I like it as a company, but would want to see HAYT remain as HAYT, with a gutsier BoD now.

No volume to speak of, and no apparent leaks. Interesting given there's a momentous day ahead...

To my mind, the gearing’s fine, and the banking covenants and facilities are readily resolvable (and probably have been resolved). The 2017 figures and knock on effects on banking covenants and loan repayments, have had an over-exaggerated impact on sentiment and the SP. Such is the downside of being tied to specific immovable financial year dates. Seen in context and in the longer term though, the poor figures from 2017 should be seen as a growth pain, rather than a sickness imo. I suspect tomorrow we will see: AVG walk away, 2017 revealed as ugly but no worse than currently expected, banking facilities/covenants resolved, loans refinanced, and HAYT advise a good start to 2018 with a cautiously optimistic forecast going forward. SP to bobble then climb back up. They’ll underpromise but overdeliver this year to make up for 2017 being the other way round. imo bwtfdik etc

You're right. For some reason that RNS doesn't appear in the LSE RNS list. So the AVG situation may be resolved at the same time. Should be interesting.

Hi chanjael Hope your undies are bearing up under the strain! Yes, it's results tomorrow. The 20/4 RNS has the details. Expect a 7am RNS tomorrow. We know the results figures won't be pretty, but hopefully the bad news is all out now and there'll no more nasty surprises. The briefing at 10am should be the more interesting bit, with some recent info and forward guidance given maybe. Unless they declare tomorrow morning too, there'll also be an elephant in the room by the name of AVG. They have till Friday to declare their hand (or foot!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXHSpcfhtdg&feature=youtu.be Around the 24' mark in this presentation

I think it was in the proactive investors interview the other day that PA said something like "takeover is a real possibility".