Member Info for flundra

O not again. Come on AVG, slap it on the table or push off.

Eyes peeled for any RNSs tomorrow morning or volume in the day. Right now it does feel like more can-kicking is on the way.

"being wrong for a while" I prefer "being right on your own" lol

For some years now the preferred option has been (and it still is now) a strategic investment, most likely sale of a minority interest at or around NPV to CNNC or another.

Reality and industry (rather than the politicians of the moment) will probably determine how SK approaches nuclear power in the long term. I suspect they'll go back to it as the best clean renewable scalable option. Similarly, Trump supporting coal for however long he's president won't alter climate change science and the groundswell of opinion against coal, so he will only stay coal's execution for a short while. Imo

Thanks for posting this. The timetables have all slipped a bit, re construction, completion and funding. But not by much and I don't think it's a problem anyway. There'll be an optimum time to get each aspect done. Management's judgment's good. Hopefully another off take to be announced in weeks too. Where do you get the idea a placing's coming? There's money in the bank and the message is still very much they're getting a strategic investor aboard within a couple of months for most of the rest.

A few thoughts on the possible scenarios we might now see. The next key time/date is 5pm on Friday this week (23 June), when AVG must bid for HAYT or walk away. Extension is possible but becoming less likely as it’s already been extended twice. It’s eerily quiet, but something’s probably going to happen soon! The possibilities include: 1 AVG make a successful bid. Who knows what value or format a bid would assume, but FWIW Wanglii’s straw poll on this chat board had a range of 48pps to 125pps with an average of 75pps and a median of 72pps. 2 AVG walk away. 3 HAYT announce new banking facilities. 4 HAYT announce operational news (orders etc) 5 HAYT announce other fund-raising. Unlikely imo. 6 HAYT release early some further information about performance from the financial year 2016/17, and/or forward guidance for 2017/18. Booking existing (delayed) orders should already be largely back on track, and new orders continue to flow, so I imagine HAYT will be keen to back this good news up asap with more concrete figures and (more conservative this time) projections for EBITDA, EPS etc. 2 to 6 could arrive in any permutation/combination. All could potentially be good or bad news (although I’m speculating it’ll be good). WTFDIK but FWIW my best guess is that we’ll see AVG walk away, and new favourable banking facilities (including long term refinance of the term loan falling due now) confirmed simultaneously. Maybe we’ll also learn what AVG value HAYT at! The SP will yo-yo for a while as, for example, hot money chasing a potential bid leaves, but longer term investors arrive/return as stability returns, and HAYT is once again seen as a decent growth stock with a progressive divi. As an AIM small cap expect volatility, but also expect a return over time to 80+pps, all other things being equal. That’s where we sat happily in October before the current period of volatility kicked off. If AVG go away, I think that after the dust settles, the view (to quote the PM) will be that “nothing has changed” since October. Just minor delays in booking orders having an over-exaggerated impact on revenues, covenants, facility arrangements, and sentiment. However with long term banking facilities sorted, delayed and new orders completing and feeding through to the bottom line, and credibility returning, those concerns will evaporate. The focus will return to the world class business, partnerships and operational improvements from Luton etc etc. A bright future then awaits hopefully.

Well, my advice for next week would be: 1 Strap in 2 Tighten sphincters 3 Watch for volume 4 Expect anything 5 Be happy re 2 and 3, check regularly for leaks lol!

Realisation that the excellent acquisition they're about to make is going to cost a bit?!

I don't think that's right. I'd bet it's been sorted for months. The main reason for delay right now imo is AVG's presence on the scene, in fact that's probably driven the delay for the last few months they've been around. Prior to that it was about agreeing terms within the context of delayed orders, and before that over-optimism on both sides. You can reckon on a business with HAYT's recent approach and profile generally having term loan, RCF and overdraft facilities, and none of that's bad per se. Also RBS have never been less than supportive. I bet other lenders are queuing up to re-finance too.

A: It would, but it’s not a problem to re-finance! Gearing’s ok, bank is supportive, re-financing probably sorted anyway, order flow strong, receivables coming in, capex finished for now, no advantage in turning the debt to equity or credible source suggesting this, etc

There's no reason to suppose the term loan will be cleared by an equity raise. I don't know where that suggestion originated, but it's silly imo.

Good honest post from you there chanjael – your pain is clear for all to see, and I hate to think what state your undies are in now!! I recall you filled a pair the other week!!! FWIW I still think this is a very strong share, and the best strategy atm is to let the AVG situation play out. We should know which way that’s going within 2 weeks, and any bid will be way over the current SP I’m sure. Even if AVG walk away, the future looks very bright. No point repeating all the positives, but RHL’s news this morning points towards the nuclear sector continuing to improve too, and I’m sure HAYT will profit from that as well. A strengthening dollar helps too because dollar earnings are worth more when converted back to pounds, and the Fed are likely to raise interest rates again today. The concern depressing the SP seems to surround the debt pile and banking facilities, although the gearing seems perfectly ok to me (and to HAYT and RBS too!!!), and the revised facilities (including the term loan) are no doubt in place and temporarily on ice pending the outcome of AVG’s interest. And I don’t think there’s been any talk of cutting the progressive dividend either. Minor delays in booking orders have affected the figures in an exaggerated way imo, but crucially (and from a long term perspective) have not affected the underlying business. The potential breach of financial covenants which follows all this is seemingly down to over-optimism from both HAYT and RBS, which both now recognize, and I’m sure has been sorted within the revised facilities.

Good RNS. No mention of any exploration JV, so I guess they're pushing ahead by themselves. Good sign that they're confident to do that, and I agree it suggests funding's on track. News on that due this quarter too I think.

Oh I see - sorry I thought you were talking about the short term extensions, rather than long term re-financing of the term loan.

Quite the opposite imo. I think it's fairly obvious RBS are extending the loan precisely because AVG are around. Not indefinitely obviously, but for the time being and for the current bid extension period expiring later this month. And take your time AVG. Delve deep and get any bid right. Does anyone know who AVG's main bankers are btw? I think someone on this BB suggested interestingly that RBS might be interested in banking the enlarged entity, and this might be influencing RBS's approach.

Good RNS. Keeps things steady. HAYT is and always has been imo a strong bankable business. So I’m sure there was no problem HAYT and RBS agreeing another small kick of the can down the road. Also HAYT, AVG and RBS will all understand the true strength of the HAYT business, and that’s all that’s important at this stage. The market seems to have interpreted the can kicking over the last few months as evidence of HAYT having wider funding problems and difficulty obtaining reasonable banking terms, but I don’t think there’s any problem at all. I reckon banking’s sorted and parked pending the outcome of AVG’s approach. HAYT resolving the banking issues now would neither strengthen nor weaken its hand in the discussions with AVG imo. Working out how to structure the HAYT debt and business within an enlarged AVG will be the “easy” bit for AVG. The tricky bit is putting a present value on HAYT’s future prospects, and I imagine that’s what’s taking the time. Thankfully I now have a large freshly laundered pile of undies waiting in the airing cupboard, so am as prepared as possible for the nervy countdown to AVG’s decision.

Possible but more likely another extension of rbs debt situation to end June imo. Organise stack of fresh underpants and check in daily from here imo. AVG certainly serious.

Thanks martina07 - one to check out on the iplayer. I quite agree re ORM (although it's in Spain not Portugal) and I'm building a position in WRES too.

Perfectly possible g-w, there was a leak before, and the trading volumes currently suggest nothing’s coming soon. But is there frenetic activity going on behind the scenes?! Maybe we’re seeing the proverbial graceful swan moving serenely across the surface, and not seeing the feet paddling furiously underneath. I’m sticking with tomorrow for a withdrawal/funding-resolved double RNS. I had a quick look at AVG – and concluded good company and a nice suitor to have. ELB should have his best frock and lippy on, but not open the legs too quickly. I suspect in the DD process AVG have concluded there are no unresolvable financial issues (that’s always been a sideshow imo), and I can also see why HAYT would be a good addition to AVG. Ultimately however, I think valuing HAYT acceptably will be impossible, and because the initial move seemed opportunistic, I think AVG would lowball it if they bid at all, so I don’t think an acceptable bid will be forthcoming. HAYT’s just been through a significant and brave investment/expansion exercise in difficult times, with the Luton COE and the PB acquisition etc, and the value is largely in what all that could bring in in the future, and that’s too much like finger in the air territory. HAYT’s future is perhaps best left in its own hands at this stage. I see it all as quite positive for the SP. A win-win situation. Either a bid or settled funding arrangements (the latter is probably sorted and parked for now whilst AVG are on the scene) would send it north.