Member Info for flundra

Low volumes, no leaks, news Friday most likely imo

Takeover deadline's 5pm on Friday 26 May isn't it? As per 1st 28 April RNS. 31 May is the RBS loans extension deadline as per 2nd 28 April RNS.

Well my crystal ball’s showing a double RNS 7am Friday morning – AVG withdrawing, and funding sorted. Then a steady SP rise back to 80p and beyond propelled by lots of nice orders. AVG have to declare by 5pm on Friday anyway I think.

whoops I mean 26 May.

I think it's most likely we'll get a single RNS (on or before 31 May) that AVG have made a bid, or else a double 7am RNS (again on or before 31 May) the first saying that AVG have withdrawn, the second confirming long term financing with RBS.

...and a reminder why (astutely) Almonty were rejected. http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=ORM&ArticleCode=9jsl2x4x&ArticleHeadline=Board_Response_to_Indicative_NonBinding_Proposals

I suspect we'll see the sp yo yo a bit in the run up to AVG declaring their intentions. MMs will no doubt play some games. As it was a leak that caused the initial SP spike and flushed AVG out into the open, we can perhaps expect another leak when AVG make their decision. So it'll be difficult to read. I'm going to hold. I suspect the SP will go up from here whatever the outcome. Whether we just hear that AVG are making a bid. Or alternatively if they withdraw, because in that scenario I think we'll get a simultaneous RNS confirming good long term funding arrangements with RBS.

Assuming this does go bust now, does anyone know when I can declare/off-set the capital loss on my tax return? For example, is it 1) on administration, or 2) on any subsequent liquidation (on exit from administration), or 3) when the administrators/liquidators declare there will be a (probably zero) return to shareholders, or 4) on removal of TRP from AIM or the companies house register, or 5) some other point?!

Yes it's a bit nervy. Low volumes so maybe a while till news. We haven't heard AVG have walked away, and they've been on the scene for a while now. So....we can perhaps conclude they're having a serious look, and might be liking what they see, to warrant spending all this time/expense?

Hi barny I'd have to listen again but recall it was indeed a foreign perhaps US ETF being referred to. GCL is on my watchlist and is an AIM listed company, so if my understanding's right, it wouldn't be GCL selling BKY, as it's London listed and also because there'd be no redemption payment for GCL to make (funding the redemption payment being the reason for the BKY sell off according to Paul).

My other (unrelated) thought on that interview, was that at least half of it was Paul addressing the radical greens issue. What a shame, and a waste of otherwise useful PR time. I think he had to do it though and he’s having to play catch up here, having to react to events. Far better to have grasped this nettle earlier, and dealt with it proactively and pre-emptively, by issuing statements about the Court cases etc, as it unfolded. That way he wouldn’t be spending so much time now, dealing with this non-issue, which has taken on a wholly unjustified significance and life of its own. Imo of course. I know the subject of how to deal with the radical greens issues has been discussed extensively and passionately on this BB, and that views differ!

Listening to the Brr media interview with PA, I understood him to say the sharp SP fall was partly down to an ETF being forced to sell underlying investments (BKY amongst them), because some investors wanted out. I guess this ETF was structured like a unit trust (as opposed to an investment trust for example) such that actual investments have to be sold to pay out departing investors. So the inference is that the ETF managers wouldn’t have sold BKY otherwise, and presumably retain faith in it. The investors leaving will have all sorts of reasons for doing so, maybe nothing to do with the uranium market at all. PA said the selling seems to have stopped now, and that he had arranged for other IIs to pick up many of the BKY shares sold by the ETF anyway. So it should head north from here.

and a 14.41m shares buy showing on 26 April

HAYT, AVG and RBS need to be working on a number of different scenarios between them now. It’ll be complicated. I suspect HAYT and RBS have had the long term funding package for HAYT resolved for a while now, but put it on ice, whilst AVG remain interested. As others have astutely suggested, they’ll be a bit of manoeuvring going on between the various parties here. Gawd knows what the sp will do now, or whether AVG will bid, but we’ll know a lot more by the end of May!

Good predictions yesterday from g-w and Shareminator! Well done chaps. I'll be Avingkittens if we now have to wait till 26 May to hear from Avingtrans! On the funding I'd expect an RNS today or Tuesday kicking the can down the road to 31 May.

Thanks great post Shareminator. We’ll know a lot more by 5pm tomorrow! I agree the article Ed posted is tosh.

What is people's current thinking on the chances of a bid coming in? I initially thought AVG's move was just opportunistic, and they were only sniffing around because perceived funding problems had weakened the HAYT sp so much. I also thought AVG's interest would evaporate as HAYT got through what I still think is a blip for an otherwise strong business. I've no real knowledge of AVG though, and see that there's chat that they may be serious.

Thanks for posting this Ed. What does the simplywallst HAYT report they refer to say, do you know? Turkey, or undervalued opportunity? Imo HAYT isn't financially unsound at all for reasons already discussed.

Bit odd, with so much going on. AVT have until 5pm tomorrow to state intention re making an offer. And the £2.4m repayment falls due tomorrow (so I guess there'll either be another RNS putting back repayment/financial covenants measurement again, or an RNS confirming the new long term funding arrangements) Both these issues would normally cause some real SP movement, but so far zero volume traded - calm before the storm maybe?

It's financial wriggle room. Every business needs it.