Member Info for flundra

I messaged Malcy after his doom and gloom blog comment about the nomad resignation...and got blanked!

Director holdings are substantial. Have a look at the AR for details of the vehicles and holdings

Now would be a good time for Davy or SP Angel to re-crunch the numbers and give us an updated NPV for Barruecopardo

Hi Shareminator Mine are now showing (HL platform today). I'm going to hold AVG for the time being BTW. I didn't vote in the end in HTG, mainly because of the recapitalisation commentary in the Scheme doc.

Time to get the PR people into action. Raise the profile and interest in this excellent share. eg Lots of jobs for local people in an area of intergenerational unemployment and desertification. This project is really helping. Perhaps they should do a joint PR exercise focussing on the local social/economic benefits, with BKY.

I think that’s right. It’s a big if but if history repeats and we get say a five- or sixfold rise in the U price over the next few years, t/o seems likely to me (by a major at a sensible price), and moreover sooner rather than later along the price rise spike. I suspect the Omanis wouldn’t stand in the way if the price is right. If I’ve read it correctly their off-take rights survive t/o of BKY, and terms of sale of product to other buyers would be a secondary concern at that point.

One other thought to throw in. If/when the U price rises on the expected exponential curve, it probably won’t be long before a major makes an offer for BKY. Now is the time in the cycle that large miners would want to be building/opening new mines, but can’t because of having to focus on primary assets and cut production. The problem though is the many years lead-in time to get a new mine developed. One solution would be...buy a new mine, and buy it early ahead of the competition too.

Good news imo. So the Chinese fell away in the end and the Omanis come in. Wasn't expecting that. Each successive raise has been on better terms than the previous one, so well done BKY for achieving that in difficult ongoing circumstances. I'm also going to let the hullaballoo pass, then put the last of my big dosh in.

I'm sure ORM will have loads of suitors before long - ORM very nicely positioned atm

So what’s gone wrong since last Tuesday?! Is it wishful thinking to think this is just innocently replacing the nomad as a planned change to prepare for the new larger HNL? And doing it now whilst shares are suspended and so it won’t be disruptive? Cochran’s quote on 1 Aug looked pretty positive to me: “We are fully focused on progressing this transaction to its successful completion despite its complexity and large scale in comparison to HALO's current operations. This acquisition will be transformational for our business, giving us exposure to existing production and associated infrastructure, with access to significant upside. This is an important step towards repositioning HALO as a sizeable independent oil & gas player focused on lower-risk opportunities in well-establised provinces."

You're right to be cautious until financing's in place grippa, although the iis are already substantial shareholders, discussions with strategic partners are advanced, and imo we can be pretty confident we'll get good terms. HUR is very different, offshore oil from fractured basement, and where there's some doubt at least over ability to extract. BKY are gardening/farming! ie technically very simple near surface extraction.

Hi shareminator I’ve not read everything, but agree it would be wrong of ELB to accept this bonus if only because he’s going to AVG as a non-exec director. These bonuses are perhaps the HAYT directors’ golden parachutes, awarded to compensate for loss of their jobs on t/o or merger, but if he’s going straight into AVG on a full package as part and parcel of the deal he himself has cooked up, he absolutely should not accept a parachute bonus, even if technically contractually entitled. The same applies to any other HAYT directors taken on by AVG. I also agree ELB’s done a lot wrong this past year, including re funding and forecasting, and of course selling for a price which fails to recognise the long term prospects. Hardly bonus territory. I think I’m kind of resigned to this merger though now we’ve been told there’s no realistic way of sorting the debt pile. I would have participated in any open offer though. The employees should be ok as the HTG business carries on, albeit as a subsidiary of AVG. They’ll be worried about redundancy because of the change I guess, but keep their employee rights. They might actually be more secure with AVG’s balance sheet behind them. We’ve had precious little indication recently of the extent of the problems. Would ELB argue he’s released what he’s been obliged to and preserved value by preventing panic, enabling an orderly sale? – I don’t know. Regards

Well the court case will play out as it plays out, and we’ll have to wait and see what happens. It doesn’t surprise me that cash strapped govts will seek to claw back tax. Maybe the Canadians are as aggressive as HMRC are here in UK. They clearly think they have a prospect of winning. But it’s perhaps unlikely that a court will hand down a judgment fatal to Cameco (and by implication large swathes of Canadian industry), even if Cameco lose. And I think I’m right to say Cameco themselves are still confident of their position anyway. I have to say I still like Cameco as an investment proposition. You’ve got to believe in the future of nuclear power, and that the U-price cycle is going to turn shortly of course. Be prepared for a rollercoaster too – eg quarterly production targets will over- and under-shoot, buyers will still be trying to wriggle out of current offtake agreements etc. CN is absolutely right to highlight the court case and shutting in of production as risk factors, but I think suggestions of its demise are overstated and imo not to be wished for either. The SP has also gone from less than $8 last Autumn to over $10 today. The consensus also seems to be it’s a buy. This from 7 June: http://newsden.net/analysts-price-targets/cameco-corporation-nyseccj-latest-broker-consensus-2/801915 Currently 9 brokers are covering Cameco Corporation (NYSE:CCJ), 2 rate it “Buy”, 4 “Outperform”, 0 “Underperform”, 0 “Sell”, while 3 “Hold”.

The tax case relates to a scheme set up by the Canadian tax authorities dating back to 1989, widely adopted by Canadian industry having been encouraged to do so by the tax authorities themselves. Judgment not due to end of this year I think? It'll have industry-wide ramifications. Cameco thought things were going well for them last I heard. No one's been "tax fiddling" - lol! Generally, Cameco's a buy imo, strong conservative management and balance sheet focussing on tier 1 assets. Unsurprisingly, it's been hit by the depressed U market, but come the widely expected upturn... The sp's up nicely from the lows of £8 ish last Autumn. It's a good mature U-mining share to hold alongside the new mine at BKY.

A lot of people have been saying it - looks like they were right... P23 – “Following discussions with RBS, the HTG Directors believe that a substantial equity placing would be required to secure long term financing from its lenders. There can be no certainty that such a fund raising can be completed and in the event that such a fund raising were successfully completed, the HTG Directors believe that this would likely be at a substantial discount to both the Closing Price on27July 2017 of 48.5pence and the implied value of HTG Shares under the Scheme of approximately 50.1 pence, resulting in significant dilution to HTG Shareholders”

Things should hot up a bit now, with management talking of a pivotal 6 month period. Hopefully that comes from real confidence we’re going to see real improvement. It’s the sort of talk that can come back and bite you on the bum if we’re still in the doldrums come Christmas, so hopefully won’t have been said lightly. Richard Lucas re-locating to Plymouth is also important. Shows both confidence and commitment. Compare that to Russell Clark who never wanted to leave his Aussie beach and even ****ged off Dartmoor! RCF seem happy for now, and I can't see them pulling the plug particularly if the APT price continues to improve.

There'll be some HAYT/AVG arbitrage going on as well - trader's dream!

Great post shareminator. I hope to read the AR shortly. Thanks for these comments, although my blood pressure’s probably gone up a few notches reading them. What a sorry end for a great company on the up. Re the SP, it seems to have come back in the last couple of days from unexpected lows, like you say probably because for example we now have the Sept target date. All other things being equal I’d expect it to sit just below the merger price, like poole said to reflect the “risk” of merger not proceeding, and the market interpreting merger not proceeding as bad news. (We know better of course!). Merger price is of course a moving target being determined by formula referenced to the AVG SP. No-voting Resistance fighters like myself may emerge in sufficient numbers to scupper the merger, a counter bid might still materialise, and there’s always the possibility of dial-moving news. Those scenarios could put the cat amongst the pigeons, but my best guess otherwise would be relative stability around current levels until merger.

I haven’t read the AR, but we may never know what’s actually gone on with the banking saga. Similarly for the vote, I suspect information will be minimal, and timeframes short. All to gently ease through a yessssssss – trusssssssssssst meeeeeeeeeee. It’s still NO from me though.

I quite agree the HAYT sp can be expected to hover a bit below the merger price to reflect the risk of merger not proceeding (all other things being equal), and it was doing this in the days post announcement. I was thinking though that the subsequent fall of 10% on no new news required some particular explanation, because it’s such a significant fall. I can’t see how any shareholder can vote yes with any conviction given the restricted newsflow. The picture now will be very different from March. I also wondered if sweeteners can be given to secure those irrevocable vote undertakings. The balance sheet is perhaps stretched in the sense of “working hard” rather than stressed, but without updated figures and an explanation (which we’ve never had) for the long delay refinancing, we don’t really know. My understanding from what the bod have said (until they went to ground) is that the strong H2 2017 performance anticipated in the half yearly report, happened/is happening, just the wrong side of 31 March! With all forward business pointers strong too. Order levels may not have been very exciting in Q1 calendar year 2017, but may well be flowing in superfast now.