The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
From reading it seems GASOL have exclusive rights for all AFREN LNG projects, which is good. GASOL are more into getting the LNG from the discovery to the market via their infrastructure, and make deals with the major players in the market for selling to the end customer. And with the opinion that this region will pipe all the LNG via this JV route.. It looks good... I see this as a good spread to investments in the LNG market, you invest in the actual exploration company (i.e. AFR), and you can invest here in a company that makes the route to the market.. And this market will be Europe, and the US...
You may have been right... http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200906260701425629U.html
I'm going to save that last post, for when the next person accuses me of ramping this stock.. In dealing you have to look at the whole picture and be honest with yourself...
I have just been doing some figures for the Cyrus deal. As I do want to top up here, long term once the work is done and AGU are in a positive cash flow I see this as a nice stock. But short term I see a bit of pain for shareholders. Reasons: The finance deal is a good deal for AGU, but it comes at a price, $12.5M = £7.668711M @conversion 1.63 Share issue to Cyrus = 577,275,643 which equates to 1.33p per share. (not sure what the terms of the deal are with regards to the conversion rate i.e. if the conversion was $2 for £1, then obviously the deal gets better for Cyrus, but the T&C's have not been given out, suspect it has been a fixed conversion at the time of the deal.) So once this goes through I expect the SP to fall, to apporx 1.5p (given that the new share cap will be approx 3 times the current) But this is the only way a company like AGU can go ahead with the projects... And it may take time to get a good return...
This is a good write up on GASOL and what it wants to acheive, it was written before the JV news. And te JV news puts them 2 steps ahead... http://www.oilbarrel.com/companies/details0/company/gasol-plc.html The bit I like is: Gasol derives the benefit of a strong board and management team which includes Mr. Osman Shahenshah, CEO of Afren Plc, who is a board member and Dr. Rilwanu Lukman, the former OPEC President and Secretary General, who is currently Honorary Advisor to the President of Nigeria on energy and strategic matters. Dr. Lukman is Strategic Advisor to the Gasol board. With Nigeria holding 80% of the gas in this region.... A good board.
Report: http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/20090625132800H4986.html In General: Whilst we anticipate the current oxide-based production can be continued for some time, this is unlikely to be of sufficient scale to generate the surplus working capital that is required to allow the Company to expand once again. We remain positive about the Company's assets but believe the longer-term, full potential of Palito is best secured by the direct introduction of new capital, or through a joint venture arrangement or an outright sale of Palito to a third party which would return value to existing shareholders. Whilst to date our discussions have yet to result in a transaction, in an improved environment we believe that our perseverance will eventually allow us to achieve our objectives.
Can you read y GAS research and see what you think.. Want to make sure it's as good for GAS / AFR as I think...
After having my research hat on, I came across this article from 2006. It shows the original JV. Also note how Gasol have turned around the game a little.. From having a 20% stake in the JV partner, to owning 75% of the parent company for the JV partner, to getting the whole JV .... Very good business... http://www.africanoiljournal.com/12-08-2006%20afgas_and_sonagas_sign_lng_deal.htm Relationship between Afgas, AfLNG and Gasol 2006: Gasol announced the acquisition of a 20% stake in AfLNG on 1 September 2006. AfLNG is majority owned by Afgas and was established to integrate and build on the group's gas and LNG strategy. AfLNG's strategic intention is to become the premier independent LNG company in the Gulf of Guinea. The Joint Venture with Sonagas is the group's first critical step in realizing the independent LNG strategy. MAR-2007 LONDON (AFX) - Gasol PLC said it has bought 75 pct of Afgas Infrastructure Ltd, a company established to support the gas infrastructure-related activities in the Gulf of Guinea region of African Gas Development Corp. And finally from that article: "The Gulf of Guinea has approximately 200 TCF of gas reserves, with more than 80% of those reserves being situated in Nigeria; therefore Equatorial Guinea is ideally placed to be one of the leading regional gas processing centers in West Africa."
http://www.killthespread.com/ Quite a good site.... For AIM spreads, that are over the top i.e. FND...
hi, fireheart110@rocketmail.com
From reading the old news this shows what Afgas would have got, and considering GAS had 75% of them now GAS will get a bigger chunk of the pie with the direct JV (the last 3 lines are the bit to look at)... 5-MAR-2007 14:55 LONDON (AFX) - Gasol PLC said it has bought 75 pct of Afgas Infrastructure Ltd, a company established to support the gas infrastructure-related activities in the Gulf of Guinea region of African Gas Development Corp, for 400,000 stg. African Gas Development Corp in December announced a joint venture with Sociedad Nacional de Gas, GE. In a statement AIM-listed Gasol said AIL, a unit of African Gas Development Corp, will participate in the development of gas-gathering and processing systems in the Gulf of Guinea, including the design, financing, construction, operation and maintenance of relevant infrastructure. AIL will be supported by each of Norway-listed Acergy, formerly named Stolt Offshore, and UK construction and engineering group AMEC. As previously announced, on Dec 6 2006, Heads of Agreement have been signed by African Gas Development Corp with these companies. By making a major investment in AIL, Gasol will benefit from the potentially significant revenues accruable to AIL via tariff charges and tolling fees applied to the transportation of gas via the pipelines and use of associated infrastructure
Also from Fjp73 report, $1.8B expected revenue, at a cost of $500M... Not a bad return... Would like to know the % each member of the project gets????
confirmation expected this week?? News to me? Also generally, with AGU they respond to emails quick and are happy to talk to you, wrote one last week to Nick Hall, no responce??
Afternoon. Did not see the 2012 bit? But possible.. This opens the door for GAS in all the upcoming projects for this country (as and when). Could be a nice return in time.
Have been in RIFT so now funds diverted to this, with this JV it looks a nice company, and fingers in pies etc.. Will be interesting, and will be in it for the med to long term... Purchased a nice chunk this morning, so catching up on the info. So far I like what I see... (Share cap is a bit big, but if they have the required finance in these times you cannot have it both ways)
LNG is the future.. Clean and cheap source of fuel... Year on year expect a rise in demand..
Seems GAS have been lucky to get in on the project at the right time.. Very good move.. No long term wait for the process to take palce, and easy access to the Europe markets (and US)... Was sad to see RIFT depart, but now a bit happier to see this news pop up.. Good move GASOL.... And with Exxon Mobil in the game as well.. ££££ Plus with this JV the % are very high of all Equatorial Guinea projects comming their way...
I like the look of this!!
exactly my thoughts...
Thanks. Anything on dates for the GM etc? Want to have a big top up, but scared the dillution will have an effect like TAN, and we may be able to get cheaper stock window...