Member Info for fatprofits

Yes, however the point is not really about hindsight.

Anyway, luck to holders.

Read this board every so often over a number of years now
and I think it may be fair to say that consensus here has been significantly
too optimistic?.

A close under 1.40 a share.

.

Most private investors fixate on the oil price, look instead
at a 5 year price chart of Nat Gas.

A true price?.

That also depends on how popular the funds are?

Oh dear, what's happening here?.

Keep in mind the family own about 50% through the B and C shares.

When you see the NAV figure for FSTA, (A shares) it does not include
those family shares. In other words NAV per share is less than it appears.

At least that's my understanding.

Nabed a few under £9, but wonder if I'm overlooking something re the SP weakness?.

Possible margin pressure developing above consensus?.

Potential hit to trading if the coronovirus takes hold in the UK?.

Any view appreciated, thanks.

It's not at..an all time low.

The early 2009 SP was below 80 penve.a share.

I have BT on a watch list, however until there is clarification on the dividend and
I can understand roughy their CAPAX commitments over the medium term,
it's difficult to see any reasons for a re-rating.

Aware this is a rudimentary view, but that's how I see it.

Perhaps also worth keeping in mind we are about to enter the 11th year of
a wider equity bull market. In a bear marke (which is a question of when, not if)
about everything gets cheeper.

For any of you TA guys, is a test of the 2009 low out of the question?.

Please note I'm not giving a view, Only asking the question.
(And I personally don't have an answer).

From near £5 a share in late 2015 to near £1.50 a share in early 2020,
how many people would have even imagined that 5 years ago.
It would have seemed perhaps inconceivable.

So, just a question, any views appreciated. Thanks.

BP have revised their 2030 modeling on EV take up
and I think it will be revised dramatically again.

You can make a trading buy case, perhaps sometime this week,
however my own view is this may no longer be a buy and hold stock, please DYOR as always.

By no means am I saying major oil and gas has no role, but from an investment
stance, the potential for major write downs may be underestimate.

Over the last Q, Shell's dividend and buy backs were not fully covered by cash generation.
And they can't keep disposing assets.

Ok, let's put aside all environmental concern for the purposes of this post,
let's only focus on cold hard facts... the cost of generating power from
renewables is rapidly falling and an increading challenge to big oil.

Will gas really be a transition fuel?, I'm starting to have some doubts.

Any views appreciated.

Number perhaps nearer 100,000 cases in China?.

Well like much of Warren's homespun wisdom,
that's easier to execute when a financial genius.

Plus Berkshire sitting on a record amount of cash currently.

Dreadful.

What happens when the next recession hits?.

Just sold what I bought yesterday.

Don't like the news of the two virus cases in Germany not having visited
China.
On a personal note as my better half works in healthcare, this whole episode
fills me with dread.

As I have asthma, another life threatening respiratory infection is
an utter joy.

I think of more relevance to PRU may be lack of China visitors to HK.
And potentially business disruption in China and other Asian markets.

Added some today, however for the patient it may be worth waiting.

Risks to the business have increased, at least short term.

Just for some context 10's of thousands of people die of pneumonia in Europe
each year, approx 50,000 people die of the same condition in the US annually.
Seasonal flu will kill many others.

However, this is something new and unexpected, which explains at least some of the media attention. The point re potential life insurance claims is a valid one. Will Prudential underwrite
of of these policies?, I would around that, but may be wrong.

And for some further global context, thousands of humans die of starvation on the planet
each day, mostly children, day after day. It's not newsworthy because it's a constant:
Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22935692