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It’s very interesting. They are in the middle 6 ‘ers % so can Trade up or down without any more News. Certainly more legs on this Buy. HSBC May be after a Quick buck ? But if it’s more Long Term then it gives them a decent Stake upon which to grow up to 6.99 and potential to participate in Equity Raise and maintain their holding in the New World. Very interesting.

Yes. RNS is on H&L. Great News. Someone must have Sold out. Await that RNS ?

Jimzi. I am only a Novice. I am not fully understanding of the Forward Selling consequences or what forward Selling is ? I get below the Nominal. If you could explain in Layman’s for me tha,t would greatly help. Showing my weakness but hey ho.
Is the Forward Selling as you say (below 5p) good or bad proposition for NSF PI ?
Cheers.

My Question is. NSF issues are assoc with Pandemic. Fixed Costs remain whilst Sales Stopped and Collections Decreased (obvs). Collections still created Positive Cash Flow. PFG are Bigger thus have Larger Fixed Costs. So they must be in deeper ?
NSF forecast HC to deliver a £4m Loss 2020 and then return to a Profit 2021. What about PFG HC ?
It appears PFG are plain sailing at their MCap ?

One thing is certain. With the £13m Legal bill for NSF and £20m Legal Bill for PFG 2019 / it’s safe to say that the Lawyers won that one. Also it would have given both Companies a chance to have a good look at one another.
If Aberforth bought into PFG but sold out of NSF it would / should only mean that they see more Value in PFG which is not good for NSF if their opinion turns out to be justified re Upside.
If PFG were to somehow T/O NSF then one would think the Value would be in Aberforth not selling out of NSF as any PFG T/O bid will have to gain the NSF Vote. I can’t see NSF S/H Voting for a 5p Sale ? or 20p Sale ?
I think the threat of Competition and Mergers Commission saying No is enough to say a T/O by PFG unlikely ? 3 Market leaders PFG NSF Morses creates a fairer Market and creates more integrity to the Market than reducing to from 3 to 2. I think the Market is well large enough for 3 serious players and is better for potential consumers.
So if Aberforth Sold out, then they decided to remain in the Market but reduce their Risk by Selling NSF ?
RNS will tell the story MON/TUE.

I noticed the Gregson anti Vote. If they or whoever believes he isn’t delivering Value then they Voted No. To then Sell their holding if that’s what the Gregson No Voters did ? Is surprising if that’s indeed what happened ?

After Equity Raise the Market will decide the Value of Company. The Participants of any Equity Raise will Ideally want the Market to Value the Company Higher than their Cash input and factor in current £15m MCap. For that situation to occur Positive Newsflow (Q4 coming up should support this) must follow after Equity Raise and obvs News on Return to Dividend.

Only this will deliver a suitable New and Growing Market Cap. The Growing MCap is the only way the Inv Inst get their money back whilst taking the Divi at 5%.

For this to happen the Company needs to get Revenue back to £185/£200m and actually grow the business and deliver £20m Profit / Annum on that.

Hansrankl. The Inv Inst will be the ones who decide if Equity Raise goes ahead or not on the Vote. Some may have left hence dip to 3p. Await RNS ? If they haven’t left to great degree then this will shoot up (obvs).
Any Equity Raise will be on Current Inv Institutions blessing and if they contribute they will want the Strike Price as low as possible (5p). They will put the least amount of cash required in at 5p as this will give them best chance of recovering their 20/30/40p Average when you then combine the 2 together.
The Equity Raise is not important here re calculating PI possible Gains. What is Important is the Outcome after Equity Raise re the INV Institutions NEW AVERAGE. Throw in a Fix to the Balance Sheet and a return to more normal Economic Activity together with a Divi Return in <1yr and also the INV Inst NEW AVERAGE (15/20p ?) and there you have it.
It all REVOLVES around the Inv Inst goal to get their Original Investment back fluid. Thank Goodness they bought in at 30/40p and more.

That’s the Key.

Hanskrankl. How can Alchemy holding Average down a 30% holding down to 5p ?

Imagine what can happen if NSF release News that JULY Remote Business Activity has seen an uptick / Allowing them to lower their cash position / so only limited Equity Raise required to release the £200m lending facility.
During the Pandemic the Business has adapted quickly and they now have new lending platforms.
Most of NSF Customers still want a Hol in UK.

This will Not 4 Bag immediately. The Dividend must return for that to occur under All Circumstances / baring a Takeover or Cash Sale of 1 of the 3 Companies in NSF.

Comeonvog. I agree. A Placing at 5p could begin the recovery. Think in Reverse. If the Equity Raise can sure up the Balance Sheet and unlock the AMES £200m / Then Loan Book Growth returns quicker and so does the Dividend. And they are not shy about the Dividend.
Do the maths for Dividend Payout (They aim to redistribute Half of all Profit Annually to S/H - So on £20m Profit that is £10m per Year. Achievable on £185m Rev).
The MCap won’t be £15m on a £10m/Annum Dividend.
The Equity can deliver a Rising Market on this Share.

Yesterday saw a large dip to 3p before a recovery to 5.2p and 16% Blue day. Once again today a dip points towards Seller in the Market. Maybe 2 Tranches. 1 yday and 1 today. Once cleared we may see a Rise before Close of Play again ?
Cash Generative in each of Lockdown Months. Loan Book to Stabilise Q4. Collections JUNE running at 90% v JAN and FEB (JAN and FEB historically Good Months re Income). We are now into JULY.

Interesting. Yes the Balance of Gas and Oil is Good. Just like RRE. Balance.

At moment an Unstable Company (3) but ok as a “Going Concern”. Fair Value at £300m £1 a Share.
Launch Equity Value at now £15m MCap.
New Company with Stability can return the Dividend sooner rather than re Stabilise the Balance Sheet over next 2 yrs.
This will significantly increase MCap Post Equity Raise as £20m per Annum Profit is realistic on £185m Revenue. Their Mission Statement is to Return 50% Profits to S/H Yr in Yr out. That’s £10m per Annum. Achieve this and the MCap will balance out.

Think of things in Reverse Order.

Yes Agree with that so long as they can Service the Debt and that means re building the Loan Book back. C-19 in play or when over / a bounce.

It’s all about the ability of the Company to mitigate Risk and Service it’s £325m Debt.

That would then put them as a serious Player if they could pull it off. This Could blow.

40p.

How do you know ? No RNS ? Have they announced it in Press ? If Alchemy are still in / then Good. They know the Business.

If (It looks highly) NSF go for Equity Raise. Then it will only be driven by Existing Investment Institutions / Shareholders as they have to Vote it through.
Bear in mind they all Voted to keep the BOD in place at recent AGM.
Alchemy 29.95%
Aberforth 17.78%
Marathon 11.03%
Neil Utley 7%
Tosca Fund 4.75%
Basswood 3.25%

That’s 73.76%. It remains to be seen if all intact and 1 or more surely has Exited or Reduced. The Remaining INV Inst will drive the Yes Vote on any Equity Raise.
You can all Work out from previous RNS at what Price they bought in. Off memory Alchemy took over Woodford at 40p Sep 2019. Any Equity raise should only enhance their hand in Recovering their Investment as they already backed the Company. A lot riding on if they are still in.

Just my opinion. We shall see..