Member Info for Fastfood

From 19th Nov price of 31.7p holds until about end of Feb / upon which Top Price drops and a New ceiling is formed around 15p.

There is no doubt that whenever an Institution acquires 29.95% (Right on the limit of 30%), then an Offer to T/O must be on the Menu. Any S/H going over 30% must make an Offer to all existing S/H - The Offer Price not being less than the SP at any point <12 month.

At 40p the Company was Valued at around £120m.

As of 20 Jul - Utley shows on NSF Website as 7.96%. So he must have took almost a 1% from Aberforth fall out. Utley definitely has confidence as he is stand alone. Go on Website. Investors / Investor Tools / Major Shareholders.

It’s the Market Makers that are Not prepared to Trade this above the Nominal.
Sep 3 Woodford comes out 23.9% to sub 5%. SP 35-40p.
Dec 6 SP is about 17p.
Dec 18 Marathon reduce slightly 11.54 to 10.85%.
Dec 19 Invesco out. 25% to zero ?
Dec 19 Alchemy (who picked up Woodford Stock) go from 19.22 to 29.95%.
Jan 3 Utley comes in Collecting Invesco Stock / 3% rising to 6% by end Jan.
Feb 20 SP is about 30p.
Mar 24 Utley inc to 7%.
Mar 26 Covid-19 Hits. All Medium Term Guidance removed. Basically 90% of Lending Stops.
Mar 27 SP was about 14p. By Apr 1 it would Stabilise 10p.
May 18 Basswood go below 3% from 3.246%.
Jun 24 Marks the drop in SP from 11p steady to 5p Nominal.
Jul 15 Trading Update. Cash held due to Collections but no Lending = £72m. (Usually operate on £15m).
Jul 15-21 HSBC in at 6.47% and then back out. Quick Buck / Favour ?
Jul 21 Aberforth fall out with BOD. 17.02% to zero. MM’s must absorb Stock / but at what price was Agreed ?
Aug 3 FCA Review announcement re Guarantor Division.
Aug 26 NSF repay the £15 Ares kindly allowed them to hold on Balance Sheet. (I predicted this way back when Cash went from £14m to over £35m). Cash held prior to £15m and £8.1m due re Interest on existing Term Facility was £79.8m. I state that Cash held only went up slightly because Lending was now flowing. Demand returneth.
Sep 25 Toby Westcott comes in from Alchemy (29.95%) onto BOD. Marathon must still be in at 10%. Utley 7%. Market Makers have the rest from Aberforth.

Thank you. Re the Non Protected Transaction Etc. I only know what Google says / but if a Trade price (Often Discounted) was agreed between the MM and the Trader - classed as a NPT / then it really doesn’t make sense to me. Only a Stock Broker would know or enlighten us ? Sorry.

Cannot see any Dividend returneth until back end of 2021 and Paid out 2022 Caravanboy. Trading Report should be welcome and I expect a Return to Operating Profit. Regard the Dividend. It’s a Dividend driven Share so I do see some “Special” ones thrown in - Driven by Alchemy of course / who fully understand the business.
I think this Share is an MM’s dream. And for this same reason it’s Best to stay involved asa SH for the medium term 1-3yr imo.

Cannot see Alchemy Selling myself.. We have a Business here capable of achieving £20m Annual Profit whilst distributing £10m of those Profits to SH. Alchemy are in the Driving seat imo.

And that’s the Perfect scenario for the MM’s.

Is that there is not any Value in buying over the Nominal 5p hence a flock of seagulls at 4.9 and then an £80 buy over 5p. It will take a Positive Trading Update to raise it to 7p and then I fully expect SH to be left in the dark re Equity raise. So you’ll have a choice at that point and that’s how the MM’s want it.
I am basing all my Investment decisions re NSF on a Business producing £20m base case Annual Profit after Tax whilst paying a 4-6% Dividend.

Cannot see the sub 5p holding for tomorrow 8am show / but if it does ... i shall be adding.

It will not be sub 5p for very long. So I will be buying in the morn. She’ll be comin round the mountain when she comes..

All important is if they Commit to Loan Book bottoming out and Growth returning. All Medium Term Guidance was removed due to obvs reasons. If it has bottomed out then that would be ahead of schedule as we are but a week or 2 into Q4 with all important NOV DEC trading to come.
Interestingly the MCAP is almost Equal to the 2019 Year end Loan Book Value (£360m) minus the Debt. Obvs the Loan Book Value now may be approx £280m ? So there is some element of Faith built in to the MCap. We are looking for Demand to fill the Gap. The infrastructure remains in place. We await news.

If something is cooking (and I don’t necessarily mean re to Trading update / because the Inv Inst will already know) then expect a change in SP in last half hour of day - Each day. Almost as if the MM’s are looking at what money (and who’s money) has been exchanged / and then they adjust their position.

DND. No New News on Website re Dividend. If there is (which there isn’t) please point me in the correct direction. Many Thanks.

It may also be a sign that the Economy is going to have to live with the Pandemic as it is and not go back to Lockdown ? Dare I say that ? ...

As I understand it from 31/OCT all Payment Freeze offerings from the entire Financial Industry will come to an end. Normal Help for Customer re any difficulties will recommence. What I think this could mean is that those Customers who actually had the money / but took advantage of the Payment Freeze / will resume if able / their Original Full Contracted Terms.
Why ?
Because they won’t want Default entering on their Credit File.
This could see Impairment recovery and a rise in the Asset Value of the Industry (Which was reduced if you read into the Reports). This also being the case makes it easier for the Industry to Borrow against its own Assets.

Le Viola.

CBoy. It is my opinion that the Results / Trading Update will show that the Group has returned to Profit. This would be excellent News / baring in mind we are still in Pandemic with Upside to come re the future of that. Few Companies could say they are generating Operational Profit.
There is Redress to come which directly effects Liquidity of the Group and this is why we are at 4.5p.

It’s on p11/190. Under Final Dividend. The Board have recommended that the 2019 Dividend will not be paid out to Shareholders.

It makes interesting reading.

The Current SP is all to do with Liquidity being Marked as Highest Risk. If they can reduce that Risk / then they are well placed.

You need to read the 2019 Annual Report (On NSF Website 190 pages long - released July ?). It’s in there fairly early on. Due to “Going Concern” the Group are therefore not in a position to pay Dividend and have withdrawn it.
You are Correct that there Goal is to pay out 50% of all Profits (Post Tax ?) and they can return to this once the “Going Concern” Label has been removed.
Also please see “Key Risks” 6 main ones.
Highest Risk is Liquidity and this is why “Going Concern” is in place.
Until this is removed = No dollar.