Member Info for Fastfood

No one is suggesting that you make Profit from 1 Loan only Customers. No one in the World makes money from selling a single product to a Customer on 1 single occasion.
If you want Credit availability to Credit Impaired Customers / then it’s the Wonga Model. Same as Banks. You Sell the Product and have a Penalty mechanism to Stop Customers just ripping you off.
Or it’s the Loan Model re NSF. You see Customer Face to Face and conduct an Assessment each time. Also you do not Charge for default and therefore do not re lend as Acc Performance will show True Level.
You can’t have it both ways.
It’s one or the other or none. And then let’s see what happens.
Before Pandemic NSF were demonstrating they were growing the Business whilst Impairment was reducing. This is what FCA want as then this is best method to re deliver a cheaper Product to the Consumer.
Branch Base Lending model already supports this.

NSF bought Home Credit arm alone for £86m ? Forget Guarantor Loan and Branch Base Lending.

Not necessarily so Jungmana. NSF will have started re lending now. That Cash surplus was built up by accumulating Collections whilst not lending. However / Cash pile should still be a healthy Surplus. But I would be surprised if it was to continue increasing or they won’t Stabilise the Loan Book est Q4.

No end to this Nightmare. BOD we’re buying Shares back at 70p in 2018.

This Company needs to get it’s House in order and fast. You are not telling me that HSBC did not know about the FCA Investigation into NSF Guarantor Loans ? They Visited in March !!
So then they announce the “Going Concern”. Then comes the “Equity Raise” potential which Tanks the SP. How could that have been Good for Shareholders ?
“Oh we are raising cash at record low levels - Yippeeeee !!!”.
The Company only Sells one Product - Can’t they get it right ?

Well / If this is smoke and mirrors / a ploy to exchange more Shares / then it’s a very dangerous one.
The Equity Raise is off the table (Softly announced). Under normal circumstances the SP would have Sky Rocketed. Down 25%.
The Insurance is that Alchemy continue to back the BOD if any redress is required. Which it looks like there will be.
Meanwhile the Loan Book was scheduled to Bottom out in Q4. Is this in Doubt ?

Horror show now. Concerns raised were from FCA Visit in March and Evidence of FCA Concerns lay in a sample of Customer Files / so it is more than Processes.
However / The Bottom was 2.95. Many Bought in raising to over 6p. New Bottom is 3.85 ? / So still a 33% Rise on 2.95. That’s no cancellation to current holders. Orchestrated ?? Hoodwinked.

Barclays have 7.7m Shares ? Where do you see that ?
If it is the case I can tell you that Barclays know the industry well. Going back 20yrs various Barclays CEO ended up / or being linked to PFG. Namely P Crook. Since he left after a 10yr stint ? There was another Barclays Top Billing linked to PFG. So they know the industry. More than that. There is a production line of Talent from them and it goes back decades.

Yes Utley went to 7% so in theory he could take another .99% and remain invisible. Would he want to put more in ? As he will be part of the partnership to Contribute to any Equity raise. Has he got any more cash ?
The Non Standard Credit Market is in it’s infancy as a Market imo. It’s been around for years in the most basic of form.
It’s never really become fluid or captured the Digital age / so imo it has a long way to go.
When you look at who is on board / you really could not hope to have much better connections and Investors at higher purchase price.
Is the potential Equity Raise a smokescreen to temp drive the price down to let the Americans in Pre Brexit and then for them in turn to provide the Finance adjustments ? Eating a piece of the pie at both ends.
With the dollar to pound exchange / you can see in 10 years time a return to £1 to $1.6. It's how they do it. The Exchange of Value and they have the power of influence.

Time is major factor here. Investment Institutions buying time before the Stars align. Q4 Trading with Q3 showing uptick and New CM Recruitment re Starting. Loan Book stabilisation. Impairment Reverse. This forms the basis of the Plan for the amount of the Equity raise.
Time is running out on the INV INST to align their Final Position.
Until then it will Fluctuate 6-8p for me.
Long Term and when Q4 begins this will play out. Only 3 Months to go imo. They will hold it back until then. After it will be a rising Market. Why ? Because 3 Companies will be generating Revenue circa £150 - £180m as a Base Figure. £20m MCap ? Remove the uncertainties / but they have to get it right.
Goodluck to all.

Just to Add. If this does shoot up beyond 8p then that may tell us that the Full Back to Work in AUG has delivered instant results / improvement and thus may Reduce the Value need in Value of Equity Raise.
At the moment it is my opinion that The Key Investors will Buy / Sell at ever smaller Margins and buy themselves max amount of time whilst accumulating as much as they can overall / whilst awaiting the AUG SEP data.

You’re welcome. Just my opinion. I may be wrong. But I believe plenty of Upside in what I say.

That is the Question. It all depends on the level of Equity they decide on. HSBC must have been given assurances or they would have Invested Post Equity Raise.
It may turn out that smaller amount of Equity needed than what the Market suspected and the Equity Raise will / should come late as possible into Q4 for me. Because any Equity Raise MUST be followed by Good News Flow on Trading / otherwise you raise £60m and the Market drives down the MCap back towards £20m.
Any Equity Raise will be late in the Year so Good News Flow can follow and a return of Special Dividend maintains the all IMPORTANT New MCap / whatever that may be £100 / £150m ??
The only purpose of the Equity Raise will be to allow the Dividend to Return.

So people are assuming their positions. I expect the SP to flirt with 8p and back to 6p next Month or so. Each time they know what the Equity Value will be and at what price. So they mop up PI Sells at below their Expectation. They know the Value. We don’t.

I believe SP gains will come Post Equity Raise tied to the dividend as they can soon get this Back on Track. Accumulating now at 6p is safe imo. You won’t get much Short Term Gains imo.

Think of the Positive News Flow. Q4 Trading. Q1 is usually good too. Return of Dividend. Recovery of Impairment once that Reverses out.

6-8p next Month or so. The Equity Raise imo will only be Actioned if it gets original Investors their money back (40p) in time. Gains will be smaller but consistent if they get it right. They have no more room to fail. The Market has told them that. They deliver their own Value now.

Put it this way. Anyone buying now can Double their money Equivalent within a year on a Low Risk basis. This is Factoring in the Equity Raise.

Not straight forward but I’ve offered my prediction how it goes.

Exactly right BP. The Cash reserves will soon fall as Lending Returns. What do we know ? From Historic / They can run on £10 / £15m Cash reserves (The money they need to pay the Wages and to ensure there is actually money to pay out the Loans). They have stored Collections as Cash up to £70m because lending will return. And perhaps bigger than before / seen as Company is growing (Just check Revenue 2017 18 19).
Throw in a £60 million Write down due to Goodwill Impairment and this in turn reduces your Asset Value (I’m not an Accountant) and this is the hole you are left with as the £200m Ares Facility will be dependant on Asset Value and Various. I think Ares allowed them to draw down £15m leaving £185m / at start of Pandemic because their Cash Position suddenly shot up by £15m / and I don’t think that was from Storing Collections as no Furlough scheme set in stone.
In any case Furlough in NSF was kept to a minimum 48 Staff ? As NSF kept Relationships to High Levels with CM as Engagement and coming out the other end is the key.
Your Base Figure provides best foundation upon which to re build (obvs).

And more importantly / If they cannot shake it down to 5p ? What does that tell you ??

They will shake this all the way down to 5p. How ? Why ? Because another Buyer is in the Wings and time is ticking as we approach Q4. Once Q4 is here / you will have the Q3 Data (obvs) and No More Time left to get your spuds in.
The MM’s are shaking the tree from the PI Gains sub 5p. Once they’ve accumulated what they can the Buyer will announce a TR-1. Or they will all Trade up to nearest .99%.
Sit and Hold on until 1st wk in OCT imo.

The thing you have to remember here is / We are not talking about 1 Company. There are 3 in NSF. EDL Trust Two and HC. 3 Loan Companies £20m MCap ? 185m Revenue ? Branches in EDL have Doubled since they purchased it for £160m ? National Coverage. £200m Lending Facility in the wings.
What has happened is the Pandemic Stopped lending for 3 Months. Collections were maintained to Generate Positive Cash Flow (Tick!). The Loan Book has Reduced due to No Lending. Lending has re started and exp to Stabilise Loan Book Q4 (Confidence riding). This will reduce Cash Flow Total / but they had to put that away to cover the demand upon re start.
Aberforth fallen out with them over future plans. But hey !! Someone signed off the Investment at HSBC and it only takes one more Player and we are in a better situation than when Aberforth were in. 2 is better than 1.
Next Wave coming RNS.

Just go out h&l website. Click on Shares. Click on NSF. Click on Company News. It’s on there. Incidentally the Aberforth Sell Date was 15/7 ? But the SP crashed from end July / so therefore the Sale is already priced In but I would suggest the HSBC Buy is not ? More Rise to come...
All it takes is 3 or 4 Investment Institutions to come in at 2.99%.

Certainly Aberforth didn’t sell 17% for 3-5p did they ? Whatever HSBC Price was they will have knowledge on Equity Raise Strike Price. Or they simply would not have bought in prior to Equity Raise. This is Unique.

How on earth can there Not be an RNS to show someone has Reduced their Holding ? HSBC come in at 6.5% after a SP Collapse. So who Sold then ? Bizarre...
also HSBC will have been given guarantee re any minimum Equity Raise price / Otherwise they wouldn’t have come in.