Member Info for Fastfood

Caravanboy. Given that Guarantor Division is almost certain to pay out Redress / then Dividend prospect is Zero next 6 Month.

This is Very Good News. Simply put.

Almost certainly they will need more Equity. Be careful greater than 5p. The £50m cash will deplete as Q4 coming and loan Issue will outstrip Returns and Costs. They usually operate the Group on a £15m Cash pile. However ; if Loans do outstrip Returns / then that’s Positive / so long as they get a grip on Impairment levels.
I fancy they will be changing the Model used for at least one of the Companies and this will require cash. FCA also hanging.
All in the Balance here. All caused by the Pandemic and Negative Media.

6 Positives. 2 Negatives. Lol.

Half Yr Results not so much important as we know their Cash Position. And also they will be no doubt trying to demonstrate they are closer to the Loan Book stabilising for Q4 / so the Half Yr Results will no doubt inc how JUL AUG SEP Trading has gone. To soften the blow perhaps.
Here we are at 5p.

The Share has been on an uptick since just before Aug. What if FCA Review causes NSF to redress Customers to Value of £10m ? Where’s the money coming from ?
If you cash out on a rise / someone else is buying when the Company may have been de risked.

The Question here is How Quickly can they recover their Revenue to £185/£200m as this was Forecast before Covid for 2021 as this was fundamental to Servicing the £325m Debt.
The Revised Forecasts are available re Hardman and co (£150m ?) but the £325m Debt is still there. And so are the Fixed Costs.

If they can get to a place where they can Return to the Dividend / then that would for me signal this has been de risked.

I wouldn’t Rule out some Special Dividend thrown in if situation permits. Until then this is High Risk / but not without chance of a T/Over. I also fancy the BOD have released News to keep SP low. For Example : You don’t say “ We will CONSIDER the POSSIBILITY of raising New Equity” if you want to progress the SP.

This Business generates cash. They should be able to knuckle down. At the minute it’s a Loan Company that needs a Loan itself !! Or so they say.

If you think about it Jimzi / The MM’s don’t want to be holding too much Stock above the 5p. But that’s exactly what they are currently doing. 6p and all. They are quite happy making off the Trades / High Activity / Low Risk. Nobody wants to be left holding the Ball.
The BOD are Experienced. The Staff are Highly skilled. Van Kuffler has a 350 Family History in Finance. I’m sure he would love to come out of this Pandemic with his Coat of Arms fully spread again.
Also I would suggest they have a Good Relationship with FCA as they were not Stopped from Selling in any Division. Fines and Redress coming here but this is a Business (3 in all) with a MCap £20m / with 150.000 Customers ? You couldn’t buy some pubs for £20m !!
Finally I would suggest they approach on the side of Caution with their Communications. They predicted a Recession from 2019 / all be it under unforeseen circumstances did the Pandemic take effect. They are never Bullish. Always under the Radar. The Figures and 20% Return on Assets will dictate the future here / along with ability to Grow and Service the Debt effectively. All the infrastructure is in place.
Something to prove here.

SP falling imo because the Current Inst Investors if required to participate in Equity raise / they will only do it at minimum 5p. So I think it will Bob 6p to 8p as I have prev predicted.
Everything depends on NSF ability to return to Loan Book Growth Q4 and Strengthen the Balance Sheet. This may have reduce need for Equity in both absolute and Value Terms.

For me it’s in a Good Place. It all revolves around Current Investment Institutions getting their Investment wheel working. And they Entered in mostly 20-40p. You do the math. Any Equity raise will only be done to Engineer the Inv Inst return on original investment. Hence / come in at 5p / can create Value back to 15p. And then Returneth the Dividend.

That’s how they get their money back. It’s all about them. And they need to Stay in.

K3. What we are looking for is the Removal of the “Going Concern” Threat. This is the reason (Not least that the £8m biAnnual Int Payment was potentially in jeopardy) they borrowed the £15m from the £200 to cover immediate Balance Sheet Shortfalls. That £200m has Strict uses and the Balance Sheet is not one of them. So repayment of that (along with honour of the £8m is a Good Start to the Removal of the “GC”.
Next Stage is Loan Book Stabilisation / predicted Q4. Long way to go yet.

Mkmanonline. No the Rights Issue is not Dead yet (Unfortunately). The £200m ARES Facility is dependant on Performance / Operational / Asset Value Covenants. Thus if NSF are to access it / then the Balance Sheet will have to Strengthen.
So a Rights Issue may still and most likely be required. However, this News is the First Step towards Strengthening that all important Balance Sheet.

Neil Utley came in soon after 3/1/20 with 3%. Then building to 7%. They need to get on with it now.

RNS TR-1 19 Dec 2019. Invesco 25% to 0%. I think Alchemy took up a Portion of that at the same time.

Adam. I think Invesco have gone a while ago.

Just to confirm / I was responding to Maddog.

Because the Asset Value of the Loan Book was Hit by a £60m Write down. Tied to the IFRS-9 I believe in Accounting Standards. Thus / the Current £200m Funding from ARES has Performance / Operational / and Asset Value Targets to Hit before they can Access it. Although I believe ARES allowed them an immediate £15m drawdown into their Cash pile upon the C-19 Pandemic in March - So Relations are Positive.
The Company will have to demonstrate they have fixed the Leaks before they can draw down on the Funding that is already in place.
NSF was Operating on £10-£15m Cash previously.

He’s desperately trying to type in Google now ....

Go on ... Have a Guess ... You won’t get close...

Do you know how much NSF make up of the Home Credit Market Scottlee ?

Yes K3. Let’s see how the Loan Sharks do ? We can send all the Complaints about them to the FCA.
I think NSF have Good relationship with FCA from day 1. They received FCA approval way before PFG re HC. I think by 1 year !! Also FCA have Not Stopped them lending. So the Relationship seems Open and Work in Progress to me..
The Key is the Reducing Impairment.
Branch Base Lending Deliver lower APR’s to the Credit Impaired. Surely this is the Goal of the FCA ? To allow Credit Impaired Consumers access to cheaper Credit so that Loan Sharks are rendered out of consumer consideration.
FCA brought in the Rate Cap of not charging more than Double because Wonga were charging for Defaults / taking Cost of Borrowing over that.
NSF offerS 3 Value alternative that each come under that bar.

Maybe FCA want to stop Credit Impaired Consumers going to Bingo week to week or stop them eating out at KFC or Beefeater regularly ?