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RNS 16 JAN - Borrowings at DEC 31 2019 = £323.2m. Cash £14.9m.
RNS 30 OCT - Borrowings at SEP 30 2020 = £330m. Cash £69.9m.

Not bad in a Pandemic / Changing Business Modal / 3 Month Lockdown. There is at least 1 Paid £8.1m Bi Annual Interest Payment in there - and I suspect actually both have been made Year to Date ?

Research being compiled re Cash Generation v Borrowings. Makes interesting Reading Caravanboy. I hope to Post it sometime next week. Also Notes to Share re Alchemy and the Insurance Policy which is the Significant Shareholder Utley at 7%.

Full Apology for calling you the name.

You Quoted me “” Re NSF in No Way being associated with a Payday Lender. If you think NSF are a Payday Lender / Please Explain yourself Mark1973 to this BB.. I await your answer.

A Borrower takes out a Loan with NSF on 433% to fund Car MOT Failure to get to Work. Loan is Issued but then Customer is made redundant due to Pandemic and has to take a lower Paid job. The Customer asks to reduce their Payments to a Third of Contacted Rate thus Extending the Term of the Loan 3 Fold. What would the APR be then Mark1973 ?
If the Customer should decide to Not repay the Loan for whatever Reason / then I guess they could ask you for the money ? Or Visit the 1000% + APR Companies for a better deal perhaps / should a future Borrowing Need occur ? ...

It’s 4th on the List you imbecile. It isn’t 1333 % is it. Some 900% lower !!! I tell you what. Anyone with no access to Mainstream Credit but an Income over £12k a year. Bob round to Mark@1973 house. He will lend you the money on better Rates and Lower APR so you can fix our car to get to Work on time... What ? ... You mean he said he won’t take the Risk and lend you the cash ? Ohh sorry folks. No Idea whatsoever.

All NSF Products come Well under the FCA Guidance of Maximum Annual Interest not more than Double. EDL the Flagship of NSF come in at 70% APR. They certainly do not Take 10 mins only to Transfer cash and NSF are in No Way associated with being a Pay Day Lender. Loan Products are issued and should Customer Default / then they Never Charge extra. Should in this circumstance extend the Loan Term / then this would only reduce the APR would it not ?
The Higher Interest Companies should disappear and maybe FCA should look at them.

The Crucial part here is the fact that it looks like They CAN Continue with the Base Case as Short/Medium and Long Term Option. What this then means is that any Equity Raise via Alchemy will have to be deemed Fair to ALL Current Shareholders. The Base Case Value delivers a much Higher SP than 4-10p so therefore any Equity Raise must deliver More Value.
They have bought time with the FCA still unresolved. All the while Demand can influence a Growing Case to further Strengthen the Base Case as a Value deliverer. Although ultimately I think they go down Equity Route as this is Quickest way to get them their Investment at 30/40p Working. IMO.

Cash generated Month on Month has to reduce because They are re building the Loan Book. They have Maxed out existing Lending Facility £285 and £45m so the only way to Issue Loans is via their own Returns.
This is why Net Cash Generation will be reducing Month on Month but £8m/M (all be it reducing further as time goes on) as Peak Lending upon us / is still a good place to be imo.

EDL performance was amazingly robust. JVK has kept a lid on the SP by further backing - almost beyond doubt - Alchemy Equity raise. Content with Redress being under £20m. Surprised Cash at Bank £69m given that the Loan Book has only shrunk 10% and is rebuilding. That Stat is impressive.

Agreed Stew.

Completely Agree with you re the “Getting back to Normal Lending”. Divi Yes 2022. The Q remains where does the Value lay ? Before or After the FRI RNS. It wouldn’t surprise me for them to announce it tmoro !!

Apologies cannot Add up. Long day. Cannot remember where the £72m came from but knock £23m off any Figure. I’m saying £72m - £15m - £8m = £49m and then I estimate Cash actually less than £30m due to using those Reserves to cope with Lending demand last 3 month.

I disagree in the Context of “Open” Caravanboy. “Subject to Covenants”. The £200m is there but currently Not Accessible as I think NSF will have not yet Satisfied those Covenants until Balance Sheet Repaired and that depends on an Equity raise. Hence I believe they will be using existing Cash Reserves (£72m as people say / less the £15m and 8m Bi Annual Interest Payment = £59m) to fund current lending.
I may be wrong though ..
Either way it’s Positive that Lending will be in Good Flow now and that the £200m is waiting ... Subject to XYZ.
Cash Reserves will this be Reducing from the £59m imo.

Thanks Caravanboy. I am usually Positive but I have growing concern over the low SP. Now 4.5. See what happens..

It’s paralysis around the 5p Mark for obvs reasons. I do not see the Results as being mesmeric. NSF are in a “Going Concern” phase. The Pandemic continues to effect natural flow of Business activity. Also the BOD are and have been Cautious re all their previous communications. Best I can hope for is no further deterioration in the SP come FRI.

What gets me is with FCA / is that they never seem to bother with the smaller players. Unbalanced imo.

You need to talk to the FCA then Jefff and read RNS 3 Aug. This as I understand it will involve a Pay out of redress to Customers as there were fundamental flaws re the Loan Issue Process. The Positives are that FCA did not Stop further Loan Issue v Amigo / but as it stands there is definitely something wrong re the Process and until resolved / is holding the SP back because this / until matter brought to a close / is the Declared reason for Equity raise also on hold - Although Alchemy continue to support the near future Growth plan. Or is it just a smoke screen ? ie : Announce that Growth Opportunity exists when SP below the Nominal ?

At the moment re Results / Trading Updates across the Spectrum / it seems to me that if Results are Good / Market goes up 1 to 3%. If Results are Poor / Market goes down 10%.
What I am looking for ..

A Monetary Value estimate of FCA Guarantor redress and to bring a Closure to the matter.
A Return to Operational Profit achieved.
Stabilisation of Loan Book achieved.
Some sort of Comparison re Operational Profitability from Q3 v Q2 to demonstrate Progress.
I fancy a Removal of the “Going Concern” Tag would prove impossible at this moment in time.

Once March comes / Any spike above 15p would have to trigger a T/O attempt or surely it would be rendered dead in the water. Q2 next year may be interesting, however I have to be honest and say imo I believe a T/O is Not on the Cards.