Member Info for faramog

correct @Lucan ... but China has banned Vanadium exports and stuck a tarrif on imports. It is not as attractive for us to sell into china.

Just look at Paludina's posts and log of US imports - steadily rising. We can pretty much sell everything into the USA if needed.

There have been these graphs over the past 3-4 years showing an increasing deficit of supply. We know from the published inventories that there are few stocks now. Basically, 'the west' can only buy significant Vanadium from us of Largo now.

Hence, the price keeps rising !

No.. afraid not.... Comes from another PI who has factory links....

As for 'some role in battery'... Well there are some very big VRFB builds in build & commission

But I take the point .. ain't happened for bushy yet despite an electrolyte plant in build.

However... Every gram of vanadium can be sold into rebar steel and specialist alloys.... Electrolyte is icing on an already big cake

fair enough @G .... you actually arrive at a great moment. There have been a lot of false dawns, but several things conspire to change the assessment of negligible downside, enormous upside.

Production costs currently around the $28-$31 range, all up costs (including announced works take that to around $37-$38. Everything above that is gross margin

Vametco has licence fees so Bushy only takes 74%, Vanchem, Bushy takes it all, which is handy as Kiln 1 major refurb is progressing well (and we believe ahead of schedule) and will double Vanchem's output. The run rate (officially from year end but likely to be earlier) is around 5,400 mtv .

Capacity will be slightly skewed to Vanchem but let us suppose 50/50 for the sake of simplicity, it that works out at a gross margin of around $4.7m for every $1 above the all in cost. So at Vanadium sale price of $45,$55 and $65 the pre-tax profit (after charges, admin and licence fees approx) would be $33m, $80M and $127m respectively

This ignores the value add from selling around 1,100mtv into electrolyte (or part therof). No one has a handle on the value, but in the past one or two people who know more about that side have suggested $10/kg uplift overall, so another potential $11m

Then of course (although no RNS and unofficial at present), there is the upgraded waste cycle which is predicted to deliver between 30 and 50 mtv per month with costs approximating $3. That is an extra $13-$32M straight onto the pre-tax line as well.

There is oodles out there, but given vanadium is an essential mineral in making rebar and 25% of the worlds supply (Russia) has essentially be removed, it is an essential part of future grid scale battery production and of the 3 major places of refinement (as opposed to recovery in s l a g from steel) 2 of them are in SA owned by Bushveld.

Investing is about risk & reward

I never expected the SP to fall back so far and in hindsight should have reduced and took profit, but right now, the downside risk is tiny and the upside is between 5x and 10x in the next 2 years

quite the barbed reply.... I guess I am a troll to you ... but then I have knocking 4m shares and have been here 6 years (14th Apr 16 was my first purchase)

What do I know ?

@Gallmat .. you could try looking over the posts of the last couple of years ... pretty much all the answers you want are there... plus you get to see who posts and what.

oh .. and that excluded the new waste recovery cycle that should deliver 30-50 mtv pcm with costs of around $3/kg. Production costs already applied (as was a waste), so that is straight on the net bottom line at 74% of $20-$30m

Plenty of cash coming in !!

@gallmat
no Idea what you are reading but just basic adding up says a gross margin knocking $130-$150m this year. Assuming a 30% NEt (after charges, tax and expenses), that is net profit of $40-$50m .... this year !

Next year even if vanadium pricing drops back to around $45-50, with the increased volume, value add of electrolyte etc we will see at least the same.

So no idea where you get 'no profit until 2024' from

Until or unless someone gets privvy to the current debt, cash & cash equivalents position, then no

all very good points ... just none on the BOD have done that .. so I don't get your point

interesting Meyer thinks Bushy take the tarrif hit ... I doubt very much we will be selling much to china as things ramp up if we loose 13% just to sell to them

@LB21 .. best re-read the RNS. There is some debt, but Orion get a large future revenue stream (in leu of repayment of some of it).

I liken it to a graduate tax !

yes .... only one really noteworthy comment ... "This resulted in a significant increase in the Upper Seam magnetite grade in line with actual performance from 26.8 per cent in 2020 to 49.4 per cent in 2021."

Rather suggests costs would be lower (getting more from the ore) which can only be a good thing as energy costs appreciate

A lot of future aspiration in that. ATM will make a marginal profit this year (according to the forecasts) and will be 2 years away from a real profit of significance. Needs to put in place the big Phase 2 expansion with significant costs.

All looking good in ATM, but we shall see if the price maintains as the debt comes in to fund the expansion

and none of this includes the massive reserves in Mokopane !

@RNmyS .... just look at the post history ... just rampy dumper trader

thanks @peekingduck .... emailed you

says it all really ..

"In response to a Freedom of Information request submitted by Reuters, the FSA said it had not launched any investigations into possible market abuse on investor internet bulletin boards over the last three years. It also said it could not say how many of the market abuse complaints or requests for investigations that it has received since the start of 2008 related to bulletin boards"

Assuming Alfa he/she/it actually bought any in the first place

I for one do not subscribe to this 'Duferco are selling down' line

There is scant evidence for this and given their both background, knowledge and wider assets, I cannot see why they would bother right now

@numpty5 .. I doubt that. There is and has been no news for 3 years, it sits obscurely on the books and has no real cost impact on the books. Whilst an eyebrow may be raised, I doubt it figures at all. Remember that although coal related in nature, it actually produces nor burns any of it. It is an aspirational development