RE: Oil exec not convinced about climate change - shock31 Jul 2021 10:38
Whilst it is true that there are natural cycles that heat and cool the planet, it is indisputable that humans are not massively having an impact on eco-systems many of which have a significant effect on climate dynamics
I despair that honest scientific debate is absolutely stifled, where crackpot political agenda's making no economic, energy or practical sense are growing, but we cannot and should not ignore that the way we operate on the planet need to radically change.
The 'Electrification' agenda is just one of many aspects and we (at least many here) have been smart enough to recognise that industrial level electrical storage has but two realistic options right now. One catches fire and has some dubious lifecycle claims and the other is Vanadium based. Our investment is in a place that impacts very significantly the 'carbon agenda', be it in needing less steel and the energy that takes or be it in VFRB's that have 25+ year multi daily cycle capability and don't catch fire.
So yes, I am looking for a very healthy return, yes I am looking to catch the big wave, but also I can see that we humans need to do a lot better.
@gobleS ... in the recent results webinar the new operations manager rather said 'phased shutdown' . What they were speaking about is that most parts can run at higher capacities so a certain material flow stockpile would be created to allow these areas to be shut for a few days to do maintenance without overall output falling. The only real 'shutdown' is towards to end phases that don't stockpile, but if there is another 35-day stop I would be pretty amazed (and very disappointed).
The impression from all the recent talks has been a material shift in focus from aspiration, to pragmatic delivery and to manage expectations. I think clearly FM (et al) have taken a lot of flak from guiding over-extended numbers with what is still an old and in need of significant maintenance plant at Vametco. The latest vid rather says that Vanchem is running very much more problem free and smoothly (but it is a lot newer).
@Sanchez seemed o hint at info on 2 bits of solid news this week .. so tomorrow I wonder
When I ran to voluntary record at one point around 200 individuals essentially owned close to half the company. Now I think the PI base is a lot higher, with a lot buying during the last rise so are now underwater. Whatever way you look at it, they will not vote for a T/O that looses them money
@DD .. out by a factor of 10 ! .. would be delighted, but in the real world a lot more sustained delivery is needed and a lot wider market confidence about VFRB
I have no idea what the PI holdings are now but just going by my last recorded data (March 18)
10 holders held 12.8% (> 9m shares) 14 holders a further 7.3% (> 4.5m shares) 23 a further 5.9% (> 2.3m shares) 51 a further 6.0% (> 0.9m shares)
98 holders holding almost 33% of the company
Many others have increased holdings as have many reduced. There are lots more new entrants. More than enough to prevent any low ball T/O and force a proper vote
People need to stop thinking about a T/O - it is not that it could not happen, but there are ample shares held still be a relatively small bunch of (mostly) long term holders) who would want a very significant multiple on todays price. I suspect @GrahamWebb, that your number of 80p might be the minimum for even Fortune to entertain right now !
@knuttie .. they were the mythical 100's of leads from RedT remember ....
That said, I do think a lot is going on and the reason MN is off the grid is because he is unable to speak about it. No I am not being naive, but realistic. There is the endless Eskom saga (of which we may end up supplying vanadium to someone to make electrolyte but not a lot else). The bits I am more interested in are the 1-10MW systems now individuals/orgs are free to plan for - timed nicely to when the electrolyte plant is ready.
Sentiment can change very quickly. Move to FTSE main board would be a real biggy. Paying dividend (even a small special (on say Lemur sale), direct VFRB sales with vanadium/electrolyte or leasing arrangements
I maintain that end of year SP of 35-45 is where I see things this year (and assuming the Vanchem works progress well etc etc, a lot more next year.
All this talk of T/O misses an essential point, there are more than enough PI's who can block a forced T/O because (as is often lambasted), there a few large II's - there is no realistic T/O possible without it being on friendly terms and a very significant price above current (8-10x would be my estimate to get sufficient PI backing right now).
Nothing much I fear is going to happen until Q3 results or the leak of them