Member Info for faramog

Great post TD2 .....

A bit depressing about the inflation spike coming and currency devaluation... but tin spike is essentially baked in or new exploration does not happen ... $50,70,70k for 3 years before the banks will provide (hundreds of millions) of capital

It is no wonder AV (et al) are so bullish ... maybe more drift up this year, but without tin prices significantly higher for a sustained period mew exploration is unlikely to be capitalised

The same will be true for a variety of commodities ... we had this view the next 'big' commodity supercycle was starting 3 years ago, but it was all post Covid and rather damped. With what looks like a new western re-arming, protectionism etc ... great time to be in Tin

you cannot say fidelity were a distressed seller. ii's do change their strategies and just dump down holdings. the amount of atm they held, while to us looked large, was gnat-****... just noise to them.

i read nothing more into it that a change of the overall risk profile and maybe re-aligning in the brave new trumpian world

Not great !!!

Dunno what you are looking at .. but 19 trades is not 'nice buying pressure'

Interesting .. but misses a couple of key points:

1. They spoke of higher grades of ore and

2 more particularly 3rd party higher grades

No one is going to process ore for a 3rd party at a loss, so reasonable to assume that processing would be at an agreed price (amounting to a cost+) with a possibility of some further revenue is tine prices are above certain levels.

It all lowers the general AI costs and gives further revenue streams but no point processing others ore for less profit than could be obtained processing your own !

Would that plan really only cost $2.5m .. dont think so .... and I guess that is why there is nervousness in the market.

As for the Lithium side. Frankly, Lithium prices are 23% down YoY and no where near where a break even on a plant could be. No partners or expansion into that I think until or unless Lithium prices rice a good chunk and data suggests they will stay up

But right now .. #ATM is a real buy .. undervalued, solid cash flows and if Tin gets into the $60's as some predict (not least with two large Congo plants delivering 17% or world supply under rebel threat) ....

The somewhat muted market reaction speaks rather clearer than AV .... again not a great interview

Well .. his widow !

Confused about the new declared short position .. SP up 6.3% since LOL

Here comes the squeeze then ....

How much of world tin supply comes from this company ?

"in six months time Orange Trust tell AV they don't want to be repaid in cash but would prefer more stock. "

That rather depends on the terms of the loan !

Different kettle of fish ... in the BMN case the vanadium price collapsed and despite all the 'experts' in the various markets predicting a big rise back has been held at a point to cripple BMN and Large (and others) ... now who manipulated the price last time I wonder ? (I suspect if BMN had got rid of FM a year earlier and brought CC in then the picture would be different ... he just about had costs right back to BE). Don't blame him for leaving

For Tin, a much more common commodity and now palpably rising (up nearly 14% YTD

Goodpoints @PekingDuck .... Personally I am starting to get a bit more relaxed for a couple of reasons. Firstly, tin prices are rising and around (or just over) the ASIC, and secondly, the expansion means shared revenue from 3rd party ores as well as ATM's own and thus a lower (we expect) AI cost putting margins in the black.

Add in Tant expansion and (if it ever happens) Lithium offtake and what I felt would be end of this year and into next (ie into the black and growing revenues and margins) might well be a few months earlier

Really just needs Tin prices to keep ticking up

Given the haste of this (expansion planned late this year originally)

.

Rather sooner perhaps !!

A significant capacity increase !

The Intesting bit is the statement about being able to take a wide variety of ore grades..so this is clearly earmarked for 3rd party production that was outlined last year.. just accelerated to earlier

All bodes well for higher cash flows later in the year

All the talk of positivity misses the essential point that it is a reward for failure. All the old 'promise' was guff so lets make up a new a far less stretching one and then take £700k (at current value knocking 10% ) company

Call me a cynic but it is the old AIM two step of screw in hapless investor some more

What is your working to arrive at that ?

Betting really on falling asset (property) prices into next year .....

We can but hope that 140 grands worth was the long term seller finally finishing ....

The only one who could push him was the Chairman .. and he has gone too .... what an utterly ridiculous comment.

I suspect he has had enough of the disingenuous snakes at SPR .... the company ain't coming back from this .. not least as it need vanadium in the high 30's at least just to break even and has no money at all