Member Info for f15jcm

No nasty surprises but Genel are clearly negotiating for that money rather than demanding it, i.e. they are going to take a haircut. Oil price is flatlining and cash flow won't support another dividend unless oil goes up significantly. Investment has been cut back. End of the day I've decided I no longer want to hold a stock whose business model involves iffy IOUs. Much happier with my holding in TRIN.

PS: liquidity wasn't great

I've exited my position. I'm not comfortable with the KRG situation. $121m is a lot of money which the KRG are clearly unwilling/unable to hand over. Risk/reward doesn't look very attractive at this level.

9% on the loan and loads of shares. Not surprised by the reaction but upside for the patient. Got to be a bid target for someone with the finances to develop the mines more quickly.

I bought quite a few yesterday. Had to pay over ask and spread was dreadful, ~6%. Looking forward to tomorrow's update.

Bought in this morning. Looks cracking value with WTI above $40, cash in the bank and the possibility of picking up new assets on the cheap. Nice to see commitment from the BoD in the form of recent stock purchases and reasonable holdings. Expecting a helping hand from Simon Thompson who in his last update had a target price of 12p when WTI was trading at $26

The asset must be an absolute steal for someone who has the distribution and sales network. I came with hopes significant free cash flow but I'd probably be happy to walk away with 10p tomorrow morning.

One of the reasons I originally made this investment was that I thought the agricultural sector was the ultimate defensive. It's a thesis that clearly hasn't held water.

This should wake the market up!

Not suggesting there will be an equity raise this year (though wouldn't discount it entirely, there have been so many). Lenders seem to have cut them enough slack on the basis trading will improve next year. If it doesn't improve sufficiently I'd expect equity holders to step in to reduce debt below normal covenant ratios.

I hope so as I enjoy cycling almost as much as I enjoy buying new bikes. The cycle to work scheme is already very generous, particularly for higher rate taxpayers and owners/directors.

They are getting help with rates and staff costs but in spite of this their best case scenario is still pretty poor against the valuation (particularly when you look at the enterprise value). What happens when this financial assistance disappears? If trading hasn't improved by then you are certainly looking at an equity raise. If you believe e-scooters are going to take off then maybe this is a good play on that trend but that aside I think the outlook is pretty miserable.

Is being flattered by a £48.7m movement in working capital. Dividend gone for the foreseeable and the only reason it hasn't had to raise money is because the lenders have waived covenants. No way are the lenders going to allow divi. payments to resume anytime soon. Shareholder equity down £43.5m from last year and net tangible asset value is negative. Unlikely to turn a profit this year. Don't expect it to go bust but I can't see a case to hold the shares at this level.

SO4 must have broken a record for the amount of capital raisings in a 12 month period. In hindsight they should have raised a lot more, sooner.

I've put a small short on. Results were poor and it looks very expensive for a business going backwards. The investment in sales has delivered nothing.

Go Outdoors the owner of Fishing Republic is being placed into administration. FR's website isn't taking orders atm.

Yeah absolutely, many family run tackle shops may not have the balance sheet strength to tough this out. A case of survival of the fittest. The raise was enough to tempt me in. Exec Chair has a lot of skin in the game so every incentive to make this work.

One stock I'm kicking myself for not buying is Shimano, manufacturer of fishing tackle and cycling components, which trades on the Nikkei. Decided against it and watched it put on 30% in very short order.

Yeah though matches will be starting from next week and with most other sports still not on the menu it seems reasonable to expect increased participation.

Apparently some tackle shops have been trading illicitly, remains to be seen how much damage that may have done to ANG's trade.

Taken a starter position this morning. NTAV was nearly £20m at 31st Jan. I can see social distancing making fishing really popular. With gross margins over 30% it won't take too much to make this business profitable.

Profits are very out of fashion at the moment unfortunately. I shorted ITM when its mcap hit £1bn @ 209p. Today provided some respite. ITM looks far too expensive, TPG far too cheap.

Wouldn't be surprised to see some institutions start taking out shorts against ITM. A backdrop of declining sales against today's valuation really is crazy.