Member Info for f15jcm

I've added. Not only is HMI now profitable and making substantial progress, it's still on a 20% discount to book value. The fact that Santander have provided a lending facility for the solar power project, suggests they see them as a business with a future.

The sales/marketing team seems to be much improved.

Weakness of the Real is proving a massive problem. There is a 1.2m AUD exchange loss in the cashflow statement. The selling price per ton last year was only equivalent to 27 USD. I believe 60 USD was what was expected when I originally invested.

Looking at the VIX, volatility is very low. Not good for business.

Is very encouraging, strongest growth since September 2014. Analysts are behind with revenue (and consequently profit) forecasts. We know 2022 revenue is ~2% ahead of 2020, yet analysts have it over 7% behind.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/construction-pmi
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SPEEDY-HIRE-PLC-4001626/financials/

This morning's update suggests I'm not wrong here (the start of the year being the quietest period). I've added 25% to my holding, slightly above my average entry.

The £9m done in 2020 H2 was done under covid conditions, hence why I think the Cenkos forecast is massively undercooked.

Expected tomorrow I believe

Is seems odd that Cenkos are only forecasting £12.8m of revenue for FY21. FY20 revenue was £14.5m (£9m in H2) and on this morning's IMC presentation the CFO guided for 10%-15% of organic YoY growth. Clear likelihood for a huge revenue and earnings beat. https://www.cenkos.com/research-portal?#/portal/cenkos-securities/research/39_2021012701385498894

H2 revenue has increased from £6.7m in 2019 to £9m in 2020. Direction of travel seems pretty clear. The management team are young but given we are dealing with social media, that's probably no bad thing. They are also heavily invested which is reassuring given they are planning to buy and build which will require equity raises along the way (they won't want to undermine their own holding). I think the main consideration for investors is does the valuation/risk here justify not being invested in something more proven like NFC?

Show me one company that has paid a dividend and hasn't repaid support...

If they'd actually made the money they claim, why wouldn't they have restarted shareholder returns?

I exited on 15th Jan for a decent profit and posted as such. I've no position and am not looking to take one. The sleight of hand in today's results has made this management uninvestable to me. Given the impressive chart, don't you think it odd that not one of them have bought shares in the last 12 months?

Given you haven't engaged with any of the points I've raised (all of which are demonstrably true), I'm guessing you aren't actually an accountant at all?

Despite no dividend being paid, shareholder equity has increased by less than the amount given to the business by the government. The business clearly didn't make any genuine profit at all last year. I expect the share price to take a hit when management announce they intend to pay back the CJRS and rates relief monies at the next trading statement/interims.

They continue to distort their figures by excluding covid costs but including CJRS and rates relief. These adjustments account for £27m/65% of the claimed £41.5m underlying operating profit. They are also using VAT deferrals to massage cash flow and the net debt position. Untrustworthy management IMO

Market seems to have missed this announcement from IAG: https://www.iairgroup.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/newsroom-listing/2021/sustainable-aviation-fuel

I've sold some other holdings to pile in here this morning

I'm out for a 50% profit. Put the cash into SWG

but let's not get carried away. Q1 is pretty trivial to annual sales. Beating forecasts in H2 will be something to shout about.

I've just picked up another 10k shares at 102.49p

Has anyone been in B&Q recently? You might have noticed a Speedy Hire section like this one in Sheffield Queens Road: https://twitter.com/F15JCM/status/1371577714780553216

If you read the recent news from T Clarke and Morgan Sindall, you'll see construction order books are looking very healthy. The equipment in the UAE was disposed of at a ~15% premium to book value so I'm not seeing any negatives, apart from no more business from the UAE, obviously.

The current order book is well up on 30th Nov and equal to where it was last year . That's the most important thing for me.