Member Info for extrader

Hi Darkini,

Your posting history suggests that you ask a lot of questions, but rarely -if ever- give anything back.

Why not make a start by joining the share sweepstake and adding your ha'porth ?

I'll be updating the 'runners and riders' later today, so the more contributions, the merrier (and, theoretically, the more 'accurate').

Faites vos jeux, indeed.

GLA

Marty hasn't commented on this RNS on linked-in, nor AT, but the latter activity shows him at a conference last year

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/afreximbank-signs-term-sheet-finance-new-terminal

He's wearing his Vision Blue hat and talking with AfreximBank's Helen Brume about 'green transition'...

AfreximBanks EUR 210 financing for Douala port Cameroon development ...

Scroll down for bit in CAPS...

.."Afreximbank and APD-Cameroon are joining forces to build a new port terminal! Last week, at the Afreximbank Annual Meetings (AAM2024) in Nassau, Bahamas, Afreximbank signed an indicative term sheet with APD-Cameroon to finance a new port terminal in Douala, estimated at EUR 210 million. This project will enhance the existing Port of Douala with two new berths, boosting regional trade and integration.

According to the term sheet, the proposed facility will be in two tranches in Euro and Central African Francs (XAF) of up to EUR147 million, with a proposed Afreximbank participation of EUR80 million. The new terminal will be an extension of the existing Port of Douala and will consist of two berths to be numbered 53 and 54.

Addressing guests at the signing ceremony, which took place as part of the ongoing Afreximbank Annual Meetings (AAM2024), HELEN AIGBE BRUME, ACCA, Director of Project and Asset Based Finance at Afreximbank, noted “By signing this term sheet, we are committed to helping our countries bridge this gap. We applaud the initiative of APD-Cameroon, which through its commitment to this project, is helping to promote AN INNOVATIVE FINANCING MECHANISM THROUGH A PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP, thereby, reducing the financial burden of these strategic investments on the Government of Cameroon.”

Obambi's also been mentioned in connection with Douala port expansion, albeit on a 'self-financed' BOOT basis...

https://www.billionaires.africa/2023/12/26/congolese-businessman-paul-obambi-to-invest-74-million-in-douala-port-project/#google_vignette

CAPD, the driller specialist, says in its Q3 Oct 24 update that its contract at Belinga was terminated early, flwg an FMG decision to puvot from pre-mining activity to 'resource development'.

Travelling atm, can't provide link, but should be locatable in CAPD Rns....maybe with further detail.

HTH and GLA

370 x same pumping post in 1 day.

Duly reported for takedown and banning, hopefully.

AIUI, Sir Mick Davies will be attending for Vision Blue. AT attended for them last year.

The only 3 name-checked mining co's as 'sponsors ' are RTZ, Tosyali and Vale.

These and others figure as speakers, also.

GLEN apparently not attending this year, unclear whether Gary Nagle actually showed or not ladt year...when Ma'aden's 'offset' pre-condition was a 'hot topic'.

Make of that- all of the above- what you will.

GLA

Aargh!

Continued....

So grateful if you - or anyone else with relevant experience - could explain how an MM could countenance THAT level of potential downside ?

(2) Whilst on this topic, I notice that spreadbetco's are sometimes 'open for business' on ZIOC and closed at others, which makes me wonder whether it has something to do with their 'net' exposure relative to overall customers long/short...which then gets me wondering how they would in practice 'access' their customers' positions.....would they (Heaven forfend!) just determine a price that would shake (enough) people out ?

I guess I ought to re-read the Ts and C's and see if there's a clue there......

Mainwhile, Happy New Year to one and all!

GLA and ATB, special mention to LifeOfPi.....

Hi Aberdeenman,

.."The MM's can sell even if they don't have the stock on their books at the exact time of a sale, naked shorting.."

I'm happy to defer to your experience, which I'm sure is greater than mine (not a high bar : I know virtually nothing about how MarketMakers work - though I understand that another MM does/was in the sector), but - on the face of it- a 'naked short' on ZIOC right now would be insanely disproportionate from a risk: reward perspective.

(1) To use a theoretical example, kindly provided inadvertently by LifOfPi (great moniker, btw!) :

- suppose his just purchased 232K shares ( a £ 20K stake), were provided by an MM on an 'uncovered' basis;

- suppose at the time of the trade LOP actually PAID the true offer (somewhere inside the 10 or 20% spread) and the MM 'marked -to-market' at the true bid (ditto). Freeze the moment;

- then suppose that on market open Thurs 02 Jan, ZIOC shares are 'suspended pending an approach @ £ 2 a share.....'

- AIUI, MM is on the hook and has to deliver to ? clearing by ? Friday 03 Jan 232K of ZIOC shares to LOP's nominee account...£460 K 'worth'...

How much 'reward' could MM have notionally made, even if somehow on the 'right side' of the trade ?

0.2p? 0.3p? £464? £796?

And - against that - they're suddenly £463.5K out of pocket....on a £ 2 bid, which 'consensus' says is well below this cow's weight.....

https://www.futilitycloset.com/2014/12/31/the-wisdom-of-the-crowd/

I'd never get a risk/reward ratio like that past my (admittedly a bank) Credit Committee, unless I had an assured 'out' - like a mechanism for 'dispossessing' other customers of THEIR shares somehow...(;-

"I'd go with it being whichever 'Mayoko' Obama and Nguesso are connected with..."

Occam would likely take one look at his razor and say 'Yup'....

That raises the issue of sharing logistics if ore qualities are different.

So I asked Copilot :

Q : In using a slurry pipeline, can mines with different quality ores introduce their product without the ore grades co-mingling ?

A : In a slurry pipeline, it is challenging to prevent ores of different qualities from co-mingling. The nature of slurry pipelines involves mixing the ore concentrate with water to create a slurry, which is then pumped through the pipeline. This process makes it difficult to keep different quality ores separate.

However, there are some techniques that can be used to minimize co-mingling:

Batching: Transporting different quality ores in separate batches with a buffer of water or another neutral material in between.

Segregation: Using separate pipelines for different quality ores, although this can be cost-prohibitive.

Filtration and Separation: At the receiving end, using filtration and separation techniques to segregate the different quality ores after they have been transported.

These methods can help reduce the mixing of different quality ores, but complete separation is challenging to achieve in a slurry pipeline system.

www.bscesjournal.org

en.wikipedia.org

swapoff.org

Looks as though 'batching' would address the issue . Especially given that it turns out there's some distance involved.

Access would presumably come via a topographically appropriate spur, but at whose expense?

Mayoko Lekoumou (Sapro) is roughly due WNW of Zanaga , so - subject to topography - would need a spur with a considerable drop South, unless Zanaga went 'out of its way'.

All set out on the map here

https://news.mongabay.com/2014/10/the-zanaga-iron-ore-mine-a-test-of-best-laid-plans-for-preserving-wildlife/

an article that incidentally gives a sympathetic (from ZIOC pov) presentation of the environmental issues , basically saying that most of the likely damage has been already done - by Asian logging co's - some with (cough) Presidential blessing......

The unlocking -'thanks to ZIOC' - of an otherwise currently 'stranded' and unproductive asset would transform the value of Obambi's investment and be a very visible example of the benefits to 'local' Congolese.

And, of course, it would helpfully align interests when it came to 'negotiating' all those pesky wayleaves needed for the (to-be-shared) pipeline.

Something else to add to the agenda in those 'Congo' meetings, perhaps?

GLA

Hi Aberdeenman,

If ZIOC really wants to keep track of its shareholder register, it has the tools to do so - disclosure or disenfranchisement :

From the Prospectus, page 317 :

"Disclosure of Interests and Restrictions on Ordinary Shares

6.8.1 Notwithstanding the provisions of the BVI Act, the provisions of Chapter 5 of the DTR

shall apply to the Company as if it were an issuer whose home state is the UK and are

deemed to be incorporated into the Articles.

6.8.2 The Company may by notice in writing require a person whom the Company knows or

has reasonable cause to believe to be or, at any time during the three years immediately

preceding the date on which the notice is issued, to have been interested in shares

comprised in the Company’s relevant authorised and issued shares:

(a) to confirm that fact or (as the case may be) to indicate whether or not it is the

case; and

(b) where that person holds or has during that time held an interest in shares so

comprised, to give such further information as may be required in accordance

with the Articles.

6.8.3 A notice shall require any information given in response to the notice to be given in

writing within such reasonable time as may be specified in the notice. If the requisite

reply is not received with the timeframe specified in the notice, a further notice will be

sent asking the person(s) or member(s) in question to show cause within a specified

time why DISENFRANCHISEMENT action by the Company should not be taken in respect of

their shares.

6.8.4 If the member is still unable to respond to the initial request or show such cause, then

the Company may issue a notice of disenfranchisement, which shall take effect in the

manner set out in sub-paragraphs (a) to (d) below:

(a) any agreement to transfer or transfer of shares or, in the case of unissued shares,

any transfer of the right to be issued with such shares, and any issue of them, is

void;

(b) no voting rights are exercisable with respect to the shares until further notice by

the Company;

(c) no further shares shall be issued in right of them or in pursuance of any offer

made to their holder; and

(d) except in a liquidation of the Company, no payment shall be made of any sums

due from the Company on the shares."

That's one of the reasons why I'm pretty certain that the 'surprise ' Shard subscription was just a bit of theatre - those shares went either to 'friendly' hands or 'not unfriendly' hands.

AIUI

Row-back on Ulsan Mining as potential co-user of ZIOC logistical solutions :

- it appears to have been awarded the concession for Moussondji - from Congo Mining, successor to Equatorial- but in 2023, not 2024; and to be rehabilitating the old COMILOG manganese export line northwards, to Mbinda on the Gabonese border, end-station Franceville.

https://www.openstreetmap.org/relation/8359854#map=8/-3.352/12.673

- it appears to be using a couple of scrapers and a dozen workers to rehabilitate 250 Km of some pretty dire track.

https://lesechos-congobrazza.com/economie/9609-mont-belo-mbinda-la-renovation-de-la-voie-ferree-est-sur-les-rails

- the project is in 2 stages : start by scraping surface ore @ 300K tpa; then mine at a rate of 16.5 million tpa in Phase 2. Mind you, the project cost is quoted as USD 15 billion, so these numbers may be suspect....and suggest accuracy may not be the journalist's forte.

So Ulsan will be using Libreville, not PN SEZ as export port; and rail northwards up-country, not co-mingling with ZIOC's slurry pipeline solution....

so maybe you're right, MM, and it IS Obambi's Lekoumou that will share facilities, even though Sapro Mayoko ore is lower grade....

Still unaddressed is the Q why Ulsan was mentioned in the same press release as establishment of FIMC ?

https://ecomatin.net/secteur-minier-le-congo-en-quete-de-partenaires-pour-le-lancement-dun-fonds-dinvestissement-minier

After an MoU with Algeria for 'technical co-operation in mineral exploitation' [Tosyali?] and a partnership with China Gold, there's .."and in August 2024, Turkey's Ulsan Mining signed a mining agreement to exploit the Mayoko-Moussondji iron deposit, formerly managed by the Sapro group, of Brazzaville tycoon Paul Obambi, for 25 years..."

With the year wrong , maybe the journo also got the Mayoko wrong ...but the Obambi connection right?

Ho hum.

Hi atg

My understanding was that ZIOC's NPV calculations were done at the standard 10%.

Now, you could argue that a sovereign borrower has a lower cost of capital than other borrowers, but that's another argument .

AFAICS

One interesting observation - no comment re possible read-across - is that Joe Public was closer to the 'actual' than the 'expert' farmers, etc....

Ain't life grand.

;->

And here's the background...using an ox the first time, a cow more recently

https://www.npr.org/2024/04/10/1197958710/how-much-does-this-cow-weigh

PS on the 'direct action' route - which I support - you'll see that a number of nominations are for in-country charities that will/should benefit what I've previously described as the benighted locals.

I personally hope one of those wins...(cf your 'multiplier' effect in action) and would probably use the nominations as a starting point for making other (extra) donations in that case.

ATB

Hi beardozer

I think you're missing the point of the sweep and its incentivisation mechanics :

It's an attempt at 'crowdsourcing' price discovery, the example often used being the surprising accuracy you get if you ask 100 people to guess the weight of the cow in front of them. 'Common sense', literally.

There are 2 issues in ZIOC price discovery in play, AFAICS : what it is theoretically 'worth' on an objective numbers basis...(but beware of GIGO risk if there's an error in assumptions) and what risk discount a potential acquired will want to factor in to take account of local issues.

In C-B's case, the recent report by CREMC -our prospective dam- builder - that Imbolou is at risk because C-B hasn't been carrying out basic technical inspections re soil stability is just the latest indication of where things can go wrong in unexpected places...

And make it rash (I would suggest) to assume 30+ years of uninterrupted production @ design spec volumes along a complex, interdependent system. 'Stuff' happens, aka 'country risk'.

So I love that folk are pushing up NPV, whether by volume increase, economies of scale or technical tweaks : MM was at 800, you're @ 900..there's seemingly more in the tank, too.

The question of appropriate discount, in turn, will be influenced by greed (and FOMO, if there are competing bids). See Jiving's views on this.

I'm happy to stick protem at 200p ...and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

If OTOH, you (or MM, for that matter) are confident in your forecast - and proven right - you'll have raised many multiples of your own donation to the benefit of YOUR chosen charity.

Have the courage of your convictions!....and help the price discovery' process along the way.

What's not to like?

HTH and ATB

Aargh!

...documented correctly.

AFAICS

Tosyali Steel has ambitious plans for green iron ore. Some of their key initiatives include:

(1) Iron Ore Processing Plant in Algeria: Tosyali Algeria is planning to build an industrial plant for processing iron ore from the Gara-Djebilet mine. This project aims to produce high-quality iron ore while minimizing environmental impact.

NB Algeria was the counterpart for one of Little Den's PPP /technical co-operation deals announced at the same time as FIMC.

(2) Integrated Steel Facility in Angola: Tosyali Iron & Steel Angola SA is set to establish a new integrated steel facility in collaboration with Angola's state oil company, Sonangol. This facility will encompass the entire value chain from mining to steel production, ensuring sustainable practices throughout.

(3) Tosyali Steel has ambitious plans for green iron ore in Saudi Arabia. They are investing in a new integrated steel production facility with a total capacity of 4 million tons per year of high-value flat steel products. This facility will use Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) technology compatible with hydrogen use, aiming to reduce carbon emissions and enhance energy efficiency1. The project will start with natural gas and transition to 100% hydrogen use.

Tosyali plans to establish Hot Rolled Coil production facilities with a capacity of 4 million tons per year and Cold Rolled Coil production facilities with a capacity of 1.6 million tons per year. This investment aligns with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 goals and aims to support the country's green transformation efforts in the steel sector.

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2443851/business-economy

Turkiye’s Tosyali Holding to invest $5bn in Saudi steel plant

In the 14-16 Jan FMF 'Strategic Partners' line-up, there are only 2 x non Saudis represented : Tosyali and VALE.

Maybe, baby.

GLA and ATB

Hi MM,

Totally agree that AT is thinking of a broader application of the Arise tie-up in those interview remarks.

It's tempting to think that Obambi's Mayoko might be in the frame, especially given his purported role as 'front' for Big Den (and his Energaz connections to hydropower).

However, there are 2 x mines in Mayoko, and I think any tie-up with ZIOC is more likely to be with the 'other' one :

Q to Copilot : .."There are two mines in Mayoko, Congo : Mayoko Lekoumou acquired from Exxaro (aka Mayoko Sapro) and Mayoko Moussondji acquired from Equatorial Resources. What's the difference in ore quality? "

A : .."The Mayoko-Lekoumou and Mayoko-Moussondji mines in Congo do indeed have differences in iron ore quality:

(1) Mayoko-Lekoumou (Mayoko Sapro):

The iron ore at Lekoumou is characterized by a mix of high-grade hematite and lower-grade magnetite within highly weathered iron-rich metamorphic rocks referred to as "Chapeau de Fer" or hats of iron.

The total indicated iron ore resources are estimated at 177 million tons, whereas inferred resources are estimated at 577 million tons graded at 36% Fe.

(2) Mayoko-Moussondji:

The iron ore at Moussondji is primarily magnetite with high iron grades and.. can produce a high-quality concentrate with iron grades of around 69% Fe and low levels of impurities.

The hematite resource at Mayoko-Moussondji is made up of colluvial hematite, friable hematite, and hard hematite, with a total JORC mineral resource estimate of 767 million tons at 31.9% Fe.

It's the second - Moussondji - that's 'mentioned in despatches' see

https://www.finances.gouv.cg/fr/node/4484

.."12 August, 2024

...Ulsan Mining Congo has obtained from the Congolese State an exploitation permit for this deposit for a period of 25 years. This exploitation concerns the iron deposit called Mayoko-Moussondji. This is a WORLD CLASS IRON MINE.."

Apart from the ore quality ('69%') which meets ZIOC's target customer needs, there's other circumstantial evidence supporting this interpretation : the Ulsan deal was signed in August , the same month the FIMC was set up ...AND around the time that C-B started talking settlement with Sundance.

C-B is dealing with three separate arbitration proceedings over the withdrawal in late 2020 of the mining permits of Sundance Resources, Avima Iron Ore and Equatorial Resources [ie Moussondji ].."

suggesting a change of approach, most likely following a change of legal advisers, reported by Africa Intelligence:

"Sassou axes his legal task force

It has been disbanded after a string of failures. [...]

Published on 03/10/2024 at 05:40 GMT

Ulsan Holding is active in ..'the energy, defense, mining, industry and media sectors..". i.e. a 'pukkah' Western co., with transparency rules.

Ulsan mining works with Toyasali (q.v).

Ulsan - and ZIOC - may be the FIRST time C-B has got to the point of closing a project finance deal where its 10% free carry HAS to be do

Hi Aberdeenman

ZIOC sweepstake - last line-up @ 10 December 2024

Price: 4.61

Here's the latest version of the 'sweep' , E & OE.

Do you (or anyone else - Feeks, maybe ;->) want to change their prediction ?

Reminder : For new entries : Post (1) your prediction (2) your 'handle' (3) your nominated charity and (4) the %ge of winnings you'll donate ...to YOUR charity if it's the closest, otherwise to the charity that IS the closest ...

The line-up so far :

7.5p Feeks NSPCC 1%

70p glenmorangie Shelter 5%

82p GTA5 U24.GOV.UA 5%

100p Tommo1985 Cats Protection 1%

120p SolomonB BirthLink 2%

138p cheets2 Christie Hospital 10%

141p Driving Christian Aid/Congo 5%

156p Hobbypunter Alzheimers 2%

167p MerMillions-1% to Cancer Research

185p ShrewdDude67 Macmillan 2%

199p Veteran10 Barnardo's % Pls complete

200p extrader Alzheimer Research 2%

225p Iceman MND Research 2% should that be IceTone?

230p AberdeenMan Macmillan 2%

236p sadako Katie Piper Foundation / Fundacion Amor y Esperanza 1% each

250p TheDealBreaker Hinckley Homeless 1%

285p HappySwinner Alzheimer Research ?% Pls complete

318p.....................................Jiving 'cautious' estimate

342p nibj ?Congo humanitarian 5%

420p Rafaley Cancer Research/ St Peters Hospice 1% each

555p ...........................MinorMiner compromise (meet you halfway)

636p.......................Jiving ('calculated estimate')

690p allthatguff New Earth Envoy 6.9%

722p Alwayshoping Cornwall Air Ambulance. 1%

840p ............................MinorMiner ('calculated estimate')

GLA and ATB

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/windward-WNWD/share-news/Windward-Ltd-Recommended-Cash-Acquisition-of-Windward-Ltd/95152553

."The Boards of Windward Ltd. ("Windward" and, together with its subsidiaries, the "Windward Group") and Octopus UK Bidco Limited ("Bidco"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of FTV VIII, L.P. ("Fund") and its affiliates (together with Fund, the "Fund Group"), are pleased to announce that they have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended cash acquisition by Bidco of the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Windward (the "Acquisition").

Terms of the Acquisition

Under the terms of the Acquisition, Windward Shareholders will be entitled to receive:

215 pence per Windward Share (the "Offer Price") in cash.

The Acquisition values the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Windward at approximately £216 million on a fully diluted basis.

The Offer Price represents a premium of approximately:

· 47% to the Closing Price per Windward Share of 146 pence on the Latest Practicable Date;

· 92% to the six-month volume weighted average Closing Price per Windward Share of 112 pence (being the volume weighted average Closing Price for the six-month period ended on the Latest Practicable Date);

· 97% to the twelve-month volume weighted average Closing Price per Windward Share of 109 pence (being the volume weighted average Closing Price for the twelve-month period ended on the Latest Practicable Date); and

· 39% to the IPO price of 155 pence (being the placing price per Windward Share at the time of the IPO on 6 December 2021)...."

Re Windward, see Paul Scott's (non-subscriber) comments for possible read-across/compare-and-contrast :

.."FWIW my view on WNWD was that it sounded interesting, but was difficult to value, given that it was pre-profitability. WNWD floated on AIM in Dec 2021.

Shareholders are justified to moan that the upside is being whipped away just as the company seems to be taking off. However, nobody can complain about banking a 75% gain, as that means investors can recycle the enlarged investment into something else that’s cheap. Also as the deal is recommended by management with skin in the game, then it’s probably a fair deal - although sometimes loyalties are skewed by potentially greater management incentives once privately owned...."

Let's hope that Simon wants to earn his 350p (unrebased) options the hard way.

GLA