Member Info for extrader

As per

https://www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2024/10/18/rio-reviewing-iron-ore-strategy/

.."Comparing the nine months to September’s end with the same period last year, Rio’s production of SP10 lump has increased 103 per cent while the production of SP10 fines has increased 20 per cent.

At the same time, Rio’s output of the higher-grade Pilbara Blend – the global iron ore sector’s most recognisable product – is retreating, with a 12 per cent decline in Pilbara Blend lump production and an 8 per cent drop in Pilbara Blend fines production..."

Trouble at t'mill..?

GLA

Here you go :

https://australianminingreview.com.au/news/historical-african-iron-ore-shipment-for-fmg/

.."Fortescue founder and executive chairman Dr Andrew Forrest AO says the geology of this new West African iron ore hub has the potential to dovetail with the company’s Pilbara iron ore blends, thereby enhancing the iron ore industry of both Australia and Gabon..."

GLA

Following Wang Yi's visit, this has just popped up :

https://congoenergyinvestment.com/news/advancing-rural-electrification-republic-congo-through-solar-energy-hydropower

.."Harnessing Hydropower Potential

With 70% of the country's energy derived from natural gas and rural communities relying heavily on diesel generators, hydropower offers a sustainable alternative. The Republic of Congo boasts a technically feasible hydropower capacity of 3,942 MW, of which only 4% has been utilized. A flagship project is the $9.4 billion Sounda hydroelectric dam, financed by China Overseas, set to begin construction in January 2025. Expected to generate 600-800 MW by 2030, the dam will significantly increase national electricity capacity, with a focus on extending distribution to underserved rural areas.

In addition to large-scale infrastructure, the Congolese government, in partnership with the United Nations Development Program, is advancing the Rural Electrification Project. This initiative focuses on micro-hydropower plants, offering clean, reliable and cost-effective energy tailored to rural needs, fostering improved living conditions and economic opportunities..."

Not much point announcing and holding an international investment forum unless some of the above is nailed on.....you'd think?

GLA

And now this..

https://congoenergyinvestment.com/news/advancing-rural-electrification-republic-congo-through-solar-energy-hydropower

.."Harnessing Hydropower Potential

With 70% of the country's energy derived from natural gas and rural communities relying heavily on diesel generators, hydropower offers a sustainable alternative. The Republic of Congo boasts a technically feasible hydropower capacity of 3,942 MW, of which only 4% has been utilized. A flagship project is the $9.4 billion Sounda hydroelectric dam, financed by China Overseas, set to begin construction in January 2025. Expected to generate 600-800 MW by 2030, the dam will significantly increase national electricity capacity, with a focus on extending distribution to underserved rural areas.

In addition to large-scale infrastructure, the Congolese government, in partnership with the United Nations Development Program, is advancing the Rural Electrification Project. This initiative focuses on micro-hydropower plants, offering clean, reliable and cost-effective energy tailored to rural needs, fostering improved living conditions and economic opportunities..."

Not much point announcing and holding an international investment forum unless some of the above is nailed on.....you'd think?

GLA

Followed (back page) by a further (IMO) tease :

.."We will support Congolese efforts to preserve its forest and water resources, and we will

also work with African countries to implement clean energy projects launched at the Beijing summit and to build an " AFRICAN LIGHT BELT" so that Africa can carve out a development path towards the carbon-free state’, declared Minister Wang Yi..."

GLA and ATB

This is a dance of the 7 veils....

Today's depeches reports XinHua as follows :

.."Chinese President Xi Jinping has proposed that China and Africa jointly advance environmentally friendly modernisation, which is the common goal of both sides and one of the key tasks of this visit.

He [WangYi ] stressed that China would implement the Partnership Agreement for green development and work with African countries to implement CLEAN ENERGY PROJECTS PROPOSED at the Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).

China joins forces and will help Africa to promote international climate governance,’ added

Mr Wang.

Noting that fair and and common responsibilities, but differentiated responsibilities be respected, Mr Wang called on developed countries to assume their historical responsibilities

and PROVIDE FINANCIAL, TECHNICAL AND CAPACITY-BUILDING SUPPORT to developing countries, particularly African countries..."

Xinhua

A bit closer to the big reveal, IMO.

GLA

At 1,500 metric - not million - tpa , Christmas Creek is a proof of concept experiment, not a serious solution to FMG's Pilbara rust problem, AFAICS.

Maybe the article's conflated 2 separate bits of news?

GLA

At 1,500 metric - not million - tpa , Christmas Creek is a proof of concept experiment, not a serious solution to FMG's Pilbara rust problem, AFAICS.

Maybe the article's conflated 2 separate bits of news?

GLA

The original Sounda dam news broke mid Sept 2024, since then radio silence from 'the usual suspects', apart from this news release mid Nov. 2024.

It's from a separate source (Moungalla, Govt PR) , a couple of months later...and says a little bit about the financing model. Also, cost is given as USD 2 billion, NOT the previous USD 9.4 billion....which sounds (see what I did there?) a bit more manageable.

https://www.journaldebrazza.com/congo-1-300-milliards-de-fcfa-pour-la-construction-dun-barrage/

Congo: FCFA 1,300 billion [USD 2 billion] to build a dam

Construction work on the Sounda dam will start in January 2025.

..."The Sounda dam will be built in the Kouilou region. Work will start in January 2025, over a period of five years, and will be carried out by the Chinese company China Overseas Company Limited. Completion of the dam will enable the Republic of Congo to increase its electricity production.

The total cost of the work is estimated at around CFAF 1,300 billion. The expected output is between 600 and 800 megawatts. ‘This dam is a major public works project. It has a high price tag of around FCFA 1,300 billion. The financing mechanisms are in place with our major partners, our Chinese friends’, said Thierry Moungalla, Minister of Communication and Government Spokesman.

From economic analyst Alphonse Ndongo, ‘In these times of financial drought in the Congo, I don't see where the government can find the funds to finance the construction of this major dam. It's Chinese pre-financing, and I think it should be based on the build-operate-transfer model, which simply means that you build, you operate, and then you get paid back according to a concession period that the State will certainly agree with the Chinese operator’.

At least that's what he told RFI."

GLA

Nothing specific re China/ Sounda or other 'to-be-financed' projects documented by LiYan and Little Den pre Xmas..yet.

This is of more general interest :

.."AFRICA/ECONOMIC WARFARE

China and Turkey in competition

Security contracts, arms sales, exploitation of natural resources and infrastructure projects, Africa is at the heart of a little-publicised media war between Beijing and Ankara.

..." the battle between China and Turkey is the focus of attention, with Ankara jostling with Beijing in Africa in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure construction, natural resource exploitation, military equipment and security agreements, a report by the Institut de relations international and Strategic Relations (IRIS), entitled ‘Sino-Turkish presence and rivalries on the African continent’ [notes that] China and Turkey are taking advantage of the desire of certain African countries to free themselves from the political, economic and commercial monopoly of Western players. Playing on the anti-colonialism theme, Beijing and Ankara may see their discourse and interests come into conflict or BE PLAYED ON by African leaders or African populations.

In the field of Soft Power, the two powers are each mobilising the memory of a softer and more constructive form of imperialism on the African continent, which they promote as being clearly distinct from Western colonisation......."

Then on to a comparison of media coverage, outreach by the two sides.

I was amused at the coincidence of the Chinese FM's visit (tweeted 22 hours ago) being followed up by a visit by the Algerian FM only 5 hours later, with the FM giving a follow-up media address 45 mins ago.

In this he alluded to co-operation on 'energy, mines , geology and education'.

He also referred to Big Den's co-operation and support re Algeria's neighbour Libya.

Algeria has a significant domestic steel industry

https://madeinalgeria.net/the-power-of-steel-how-algeria-is-shaping-the-future-of-iron-and-steel-in-africa-and-the-world

with the leading private sector player being Turkey's Tosyali (q.v.)

https://www.midrex.com/tech-article/tosyali-algerie-jewel-of-the-algerian-steel-industry/

It was Turkey's Ulsan that recently took over the Mayoko Moussondji mine expropriated from Equatorial/Congo Mining and still (AFAIAA) being litigated by them.

May be (yet) another example of Big Den playing one side off against the other(s)....

GLA and ATB

Hi ForrestGump,

I think there's a message in your translation.

Allow me :

.."To consolidate the IRON-clad friendship between China and Congo, we stand firmly together! I am pleased to accompany Comrade Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, to meet with President Sassou. Congo (Brazzaville) is China's IRON -clad friend and important cooperative partner. ......"

All we need now is some comment re 'STEELY determination' to 'FORGE' a path towards the future and I think the message in the fortune cookie will be revealed.

GLA and ATB

Hi Vet10

Pls say more re past iron ore discussions involving Wang Yi.

Cheers!

PS For the 'Kremlinologists' out there, Little Den was lined up next to WangYi....

WangYi meets Big Den (Presidential twitter, 20 mins ago).

Up-country...on the 'plateau' at Oyo.

Mostly generalities - Sino-African cooperation; implementing FOCAC resolutions; co-ordinating next 3 years' plans; working re climate change....specific reference to focus on 'energy' and 'governance' (with mutual respect)...and an intriguing reference to a 'belt of light ' across Africa.

I like the Sounda that....

Hereshoping(tm)

GLA

PS Where I might take issue with StarBright is that his 'hypothetical' is just that : in earlier presentations, ZIOC was described as 'the largest undeveloped mine in Africa'...

I'm not sure how ZIOC stacks up today against Simandou (in 2 parts), but it's arguably still 'one of a kind' ...which makes valuation so problematic : there is, literally, no 'like-for-like'.

GLA

Wang Yi update (Presidential twitter feed, 5 mins ago).

Protocol meetings at FM level (Gakosso).

Ref to cooperation on projects in energy sector (electricity); rehabilitation of CongoAtlantic rail (may be just the crappy Brazza > PN leg); and agricultural fertiliser (LuYan des Mines?)..

GLA

.."the main input of those costs is reduction in the timeline of the project..."

StarBright's starting point was .."Imagine there are two IDENTICAL development-stage projects. "....

I read that as (a) spent $10m and 6 months (for example); (b) spent $500m and 10 years, to get to the same 'shovel-ready' stage.

(b) as seller can argue as much as it likes - but look, I've spent $500m - to me as a buyer, that's 'interesting but irrelevant'.

Companies (like people) get rewarded for output, not input, in my experience.

AFAICS

.."More concretely, let's see what the Foreign Minister's visit starting today brings!.."

So far, just a bit of levity:

Wang Yi has arrived in Brazzaville, per Presidential tweet.

He bears an unfortunate resemblance to Cato Fong.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burt_Kwouk

Ba-doom! Ba-doom!....

Something to break the tension that I'm sensing on the board(s).

GLA and ATB

Here's another thought : Big Den was pals with prev Gabonese regime (Bongo was his son-in-law, IIRC).

Post Omar's deposal, Twiggy might consider the way clearer to FMG switching horses?

Could his Belinga partner ATIF ( and through them Arise) have used the PN angle to test the waters?

More concretely, let's see what the Foreign Minister's visit starting today brings!

ATB

Arise is backed by AfreximBank

https://www.afreximbank.com/ariise-afreximbank-sign-term-sheet-for-us400-million-facility-for-industrial-parks/

.."Accra, 19 June 2023: – The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and ARISE Integrate Industrial Platforms (ARISE IIP) today in Accra signed a term sheet for a US$400 million tranche under a proposed US$1 billion global credit facility to support ARISE IIP in the development of industrial parks and Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in several African countries and to avail funding to meet trade finance requirements and to finance capital expenditure in support of expansion of operating Industrial Parks. .."

.."Afreximbank has also invested in ARISE IIP through its Fund for Export Development in Africa which availed a convertible loan to ARISE IIP in 2022..."

https://www.ariseiip.com/arise-iip-raises-85-mn-from-afreximbank/

HTH