Member Info for extrader

.."Afterwards questions will be asked..."

That's one (plausible) explanation for the unconventional/unfamiliar position that ZIOC shareholders are in at present.

Catbert has expressed the sentiments of several when he writes :

.."The idea of a process is pretty important to avoid anyone making allegations against our BOD or anyone political or anyone connected with the SI. Our shares are tightly held largely by insiders consequently they have legal risk. Glencore has been through the mill on a series of governance related issues and now has a belt and braces approach to stuff like this. Our "process" doesn't seem out of place..."

Any whiff of impropriety is to be avoided, AFAICS, witness the flurry of activity around the July 2024 'insider' sourced interview and associated share subscriptions...

GLA

Hi Vet 10,

This is the bond link

https://www.mining.com/web/maaden-considers-bond-sale-to-fund-expansion/

It's planned for 'later in the year' and doesn't include iron ore, though.

What have you seen elsewhere?

Cheers

.."You don't have to be fearful, uncertain and doubtful to invest in ZIOC but it comes with the territory!.."

Yes. Most of us, though, as part of the investment process look at the downsides we can identify; add a bit for the 'known unknowns'; throw a speck of 'unknown unknowns' ; and then decide whether to invest or not..so we can make a reasoned case for why we've (nevertheless) invested.

And if something doesn't work out as expected, we try to learn whatever lessons are appropriate .This is Japanese 'kaizen' - continuous, incremental (self) improvement....

MJAWandCo shows no sign AFAICS of getting past 'first impression' hesitancy and - more to the point - seemingly no interest in considering an alternative point of view.

That's the worst form of 'confirmation bias' in my opinion - being more afraid of learning from one's (inevitable) mistakes than of (maybe) learning something new : about investment or about himself.

'Life is too short to be small'.

Apols if this comes across as a bit 'preachy'.

We can discuss further at Abergele!

Maybe it's time for Driving to tell us a bit more about what's there?

GLA and ATB

ATB and GLA

And there's this from MM on the other board....

.."Another positive for those who follow these things.

ZIOC on the point of a 'golden cross', with the 50-day average set to cross up and through the 200-day average.

"What is a Golden Cross? A Golden Cross is a basic technical indicator that occurs in the market when a short-term moving average (50-day) of an asset rises above a long-term moving average (200-day). When traders see a Golden Cross occur, they view this chart pattern as indicative of a strong bull market."

https://invst.ly/18ggni.."

'May the trend be your friend' : there's a whole school of thought that says momentum investment is a reasonable approach...especially if the 'trend' itself is sustainable...

GLA

.."Minister Denis @ChristelSassou Nguesso participated on January 14, 2025 in a conference organized by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) of the World Bank Group. During a panel devoted to the theme "Strategy for successful industrialization and a transition to private sector-led growth", he spoke ALONGSIDE his colleague in charge of Special Economic Zones and leaders of public and private organizations.

In his speech, the Minister highlighted the major challenges facing the #Congo to boost its development without compromising its sovereignty. He stressed the need to create a framework conducive to a strong private sector, based on public-private partnerships, foreign direct investment (FDI) and appropriate financing mechanisms..."

He lets the side down somewhat when he goes on to say :

.." He also stressed the importance of IMPROVING THE RULE OF LAW to restore investor confidence and continuing efforts to strengthen basic infrastructure and administrative efficiency...".

Agreed...and now?

GLA

More incoherent FUD-spreading.

Filtered as a waste of space.

Thanks for this.

(1) The last few days has seen a flurry of activity, which may or may not be part of a deal.

Let's say summat's afoot.

There are some v brief stopovers (maybe for face-to-face meetings at the airport in-transit or docs signing) eg :

- 12th Jan 90 minute stopover in Rabat. Not a range limitation issue. No obv Morocco connection, but it's a favourite Gulfie fleshpot and base of DSK (Dominique Strauss-Kahn, former IMF head and adviser to Big Den);

- 14th Jan 2 1/2 hour stopover in Paris ( French and OHADA (African corporate law) issues? e.g. applies to MPD Congo; FIMC set up by Curtis, Paris office ..)

- same (busy) day - on to Geneva for 1 1/2 hour stopover, then back quickly to BZV. Who knows? Big Den's banking ? GLEN ++ meet-up?

(2) on 6th Jan, an 11 hours in the air round trip from PN to Victoria (Seychelles) : 1 hour on the ground, then back to PN. Doc signing ?

.."Seychelles Offshore Banking

Seychelles offshore banking is a niche market and is often rather unflatteringly described as a “banking destination of last resort.”

To put it mildly, the country has an image problem that it has built up over the years, and although the country has taken steps to bring it more in line with the needs of the international banking sector, we feel it still has a ways to go..."

https://nomadcapitalist.com/finance/offshore/banking-in-seychelles/

It was (and maybe still is) used by Argentina's Kirchner family. Enough said.

(3) In terms of other destinations, flights to Zanzibar seem to be just a New Year's holiday jolly; frequent flights to Abidjan / Ivory Coast may be more significant - it's the HQ of African Development Bank and the African Development Fund. It's also a shareholder in Africa Finance Corporation...which is a 50%+ shareholder in Arise IIP...

The aircraft's owners Bestfly seem to be based in Luanda, so could be either Vale or Asperbras. Any other suggestions?

GLA

That's anybody's Nguesso!

Hi BlueWiley,

I see your FOG and raise my ZIOC.

For ease of reference : https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13563755/SMALL-CAP-IDEA-Zanaga-Iron-Ore-48m-company-multi-billion-pound-asset.html

and the 2 x ZIOC boards on lse.

Not usually considered good form to x -post, so pls go there to discuss, if interested.

ATB and apols to others

NAI, DYOR etc etc...but worth a look, IMO.

From Seb, 30 mins ago

🔴Judge Loretta Preska orders the Republic of Argentina to provide all the information requested by YPF judgment creditors, including data on the location of Argentina’s gold reserves. At the same time, she issued a warning to the Republic stating that “more time and money has been spent arguing against producing these documents than it would have taken to produce them.”

'Let the Games begin'

GLA

All part of a pre-election (2026) Government reshuffle...in follow-up article, Yoka is presented as a 'white blackbird' - slang for an exceptional and rare specimen, of whom great things are clearly expected.

Some could also say 'needed'.

As Frank Urquhart would remark ' Some might say that, I couldn't possibly comment'.

GLA

Interesting development - is Ondongo yesterday's news ?(literally) :

Today's depeches announces the appointment of successor/replacement , Christain Yoka, a graduate of the Sorbonne and Boston University and former Africa head of AFD, France's Africa Development Agency :

.." After such a commendable career, here he is appointed Minister of Finance, Budget and the Public Portfolio, as if to say that his international experience will be put to work for the nation. He inherits a ministerial department that is in the midst of structural reforms to bring it into line with new global financial requirements, as the Congo is currently working within the strict framework of the programme with the International Monetary Fund, for several years.

As for the challenges facing the new tenant of the Ministry of Finance , it is important to remember that for nearly four years, the Congo has been experimenting with the public finance management system in all ministries and institutions.

At its launch by Prime Minister Anatole Collinet Makosso in 2019, one of the people in charge of piloting the project said that it is part of the drive to provide the Congo with an integrated , modern management tool that guarantees cross-functional approaches, the reliability and security of financial information, improved performance and transparency of public management, in line with the National Development Plan...."

Kleptocrat replaced by technocrat, under IMF 'encouragement' ?

ATB

And - touch wood - a favourable backdrop :

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-2024-iron-ore-imports-hit-record-resilient-demand-steel-exports-2025-01-13/

.."China's iron ore imports are also likely to hit a record high in 2025 as traders stockpile cheap ore for the world's top consumer, despite a protracted property crisis continuing to weigh on domestic steel demand. [ Ed.: so steel decoupling from property > industry continues]

Steel output slid by 2.7% from the year before in the first 11 months of 2024 and was on track for an annual decline, but that largely reflected weak output from electric furnace steelmakers, which supply the troubled construction sector and use scrap steel instead of iron ore as a resource. [ So 'green' via EAF isn't the panacea]

Demand for iron ore remained solid among China's blast furnace steelmakers, which have been able to maintain cost competitiveness. [ ..but premium grade will be needed to address emissions concerns]"

The flip-side? .."China's steel exports hit a nine-year high of 110.72 million tons in 2024, up 22.7% from 2023, stoking global trade tensions.

A number of countries, including Turkey and Indonesia, have imposed anti-dumping duties, arguing that a flood of cheap Chinese steel is hurting domestic manufacturers."

Strategic Investors will be investing for the whole cycle, but it doesn't hurt PR-wise if a deal lands when outlook is encouraging.

GLA

Argentina

Moody’s raised Argentina’s local currency ceiling from Caa1 to B3 and its foreign currency ceiling from Caa3 to Caa1.

This allows corporates to be upgraded several notches above the sovereign, which is rated Ca by Moody’s.

The upgrade reflects greater predictability and consistency in economic policy, which has led to a rapid reduction in monetary and fiscal imbalances.

Moody’s said the Argentinian government has eased restrictions on cross-border payments and foreign exchange (FX) convertibility, increasing foreign currency liquidity.

There has also been a shift toward reducing the role of the state in the economy, with fewer interventionist policies that lower the risk of transfer and convertibility issues in the event of a sovereign debt default."

V market-friendly.

And Trump's inauguration in a week.

FWLIW, Jared Dillian thinks Canada is going to be the next Argentina.

You read it here first.

NAI, DYOR etc etc

GLA

My bad!

Shows my ignorance of the subject - I used 'went rogue' to convey the notion of an idea that had gone unexpectedly 'off script'.. as in a 'black swan' type of situation....not as in a trader who'd broken house rules.

In horse-racing terms (and I'm probably showing my ignorance here), if you don't hedge properly against that 50:1 outsider...

MM explains it better.

PS Interesting City story, though - thanks!

ATB

.." No idea why it went horribly wrong though..."

MM, who apparently was an options trader in a former life, has a theory -advanced on the other board - that seems plausible : an uncovered call option, priced on chart-driven resistance levels, that 'went rogue' as these were broken...so had to be worked down.

My understanding of his explanation.

'Caveat lector'

HTH and ATB

Hi 99icecream,

Re Haldor Topsoe, this was C-B's claim at the time :

.."Ondongo said three-quarters of the funding for the project will come from EKF, Denmark’s export-credit agency, with the rest being provided by the Copenhagen-based Investment Fund for Developing Countries. Source: Bloomberg".

Ondongo is Minister of State for the Economy, Industry and Public Finances since 2017. A Nguesso confidant, he was Minister of Labour from 2005 to 2009, and Minister of Finance from 2009 to 2016.

A quick search at the time at EKF, Denmark's Export Credit Agency, showed that they were not then 'on cover' for C-B, so this was stillborn from the start.

Ondongo's still Minister though.

'Caveat emptor'.

Re Motsepe/Hinda, ADIAC seems to think it's still on track for May 2025...

https://www.adiac-congo.com/content/mines-lusine-de-phosphate-de-hinda-sera-lancee-en-mai-2025-156831

What's special (in Apr 2024) about May 2025...?

ATB

Not directly FOCAC- related , but maybe indicative of a more pragmatic approach to business by C-B :

From today's depeches de Brazzaville, Congo- Brazzaville (C-B)'s 'newspaper of record'

Trident Energy, active in Brazil and Equatorial Guinea, has taken over Chevron's (relinquished) assets in C-B, along with some Total minority stakes.

.."the new operator intends to take over all the assets, Chevron's staff, its contracts and employees. ‘In addition to Chevron, we are also buying shares in Nkossa and Nsoko from Total. We're going to be the operator of this mature field which still needs to be developed. Current production of what we are buying is more than 15,000 barrels’, said Didier Mutti, Trident CEO".

More detail here

hxxps://www.trident-energy.com/news-and-media/39/trident-energy-enters-the-republic-of-congo-with-strategic-deal

Trident is described elsewhere as a 'mature field specialist'.

Discl. I have a holding in Afentra (AET), operating in the same industry sector, in neighbouring Angola.

Its CEO is a speaker at the upcoming Congo Energy and Investment Forum in March.

GLA

A propos AET's possible interest...

From today's depeches de Brazzaville, Congo- Brazzaville (C-B)'s 'newspaper of record'

Trident Energy, active in Brazil and Equatorial Guinea, has taken over Chevron's (relinquished) assets in C-B, along with some Total minority stakes.

.."the new operator intends to take over all the assets, Chevron's staff, its contracts and employees. ‘In addition to Chevron, we are also buying shares in Nkossa and Nsoko from Total. We're going to be the operator of this mature field which still needs to be developed. Current production of what we are buying is more than 15,000 barrels’, said Didier Mutti, Trident CEO".

More detail here

hxxps://www.trident-energy.com/news-and-media/39/trident-energy-enters-the-republic-of-congo-with-strategic-deal

Trident is described elsewhere as a 'mature field specialist'.

GLA

Hi DH99,

Also worth noting that your extract is preceded by the word 'intends'.

Together with the rushed mid-afternoon release of an event (or as we now see two -or more-steps in a process), this suggests that ZIOC is not in control of the process and 'intends to do this' , implying 'providing various other things have been done by others.'

You can skate 'free form' for so long , but at some point , you've got to coordinate the choreography with your partner (s)...

AFAICS.