Member Info for extrader

Nice one, MM!

'Kremlinology' is alive and well.

..' as a consequence of...'

Interesting times.

GLA

Little Den tweets :

.."This Friday, January 10, 2025, I received a delegation from the Chinese company Qinghai, a leader in the production of chemical fertilizers in China and Asia, with an annual capacity of 5 million tons. They came to present to me their project to build an agricultural fertilizer production plant on our soil.

This project is in line with the action plan adopted in Beijing during the 9th FOCAC summit, and is part of the vision of the President of the Republic on the diversification of our economy, translated into our national development plan PND (2022-2026).

Through this project, Qinghai aims to contribute to the economic transformation of our country while meeting an essential need for agricultural development. This partnership, IF IT COMES TO FRUITION [Ed.: 'many times bitten, first time shy'??] will constitute a major lever for promoting our local resources and positioning agriculture as a driver of our economic growth..."

If it's this co, it's pretty big

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qinghai_Salt_Lake_Potash

.."Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Company Limited is the largest potash production base in China.[ It owns a 120-square-kilometer salt lake in Golmud, Qinghai. ... It specializes in the manufacture and sale of potassium chloride... It is owned by Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Group and Sinochem Corporation, a Chinese state-owned multinational conglomerate primarily engaged in the production and trading of chemicals and fertilizer and exploration and production of oil for civilian and military purposes..."

So where would that leave LuYan for Mines*...not to mention Kore Potash or Kropz ?

* private sector 'entrepreneur' being squeezed out by an SOE?

Any/ all insights welcome.

GLA

Little Den tweets :

.."This Friday, January 10, 2025, I received a delegation from the Chinese company Qinghai, a leader in the production of chemical fertilizers in China and Asia, with an annual capacity of 5 million tons. They came to present to me their project to build an agricultural fertilizer production plant on our soil.

This project is in line with the action plan adopted in Beijing during the 9th FOCAC summit, and is part of the vision of the President of the Republic on the diversification of our economy, translated into our national development plan PND (2022-2026).

Through this project, Qinghai aims to contribute to the economic transformation of our country while meeting an essential need for agricultural development. This partnership, IF IT COMES TO FRUITION [Ed.: 'many times bitten, first time shy'??] will constitute a major lever for promoting our local resources and positioning agriculture as a driver of our economic growth..."

If it's this co, it's pretty big

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qinghai_Salt_Lake_Potash

.."Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Company Limited is the largest potash production base in China.[ It owns a 120-square-kilometer salt lake in Golmud, Qinghai. ... It specializes in the manufacture and sale of potassium chloride... It is owned by Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Group and Sinochem Corporation, a Chinese state-owned multinational conglomerate primarily engaged in the production and trading of chemicals and fertilizer and exploration and production of oil for civilian and military purposes..."

So where would that leave LuYan for Mines*...not to mention Kore Potash or Kropz ?

* private sector 'entrepreneur' being squeezed out by an SOE?

Any/ all insights welcome.

GLA

From Seb, 2 hours ago :

🔴I’ve been asked about the current stage of Argentina’s appeal in the YPF Expropriation Case and when we might expect a decision from the three judges.

• The appeal was formally filed on October 16, 2023.

• All briefs and support from amici curiae were submitted by September 6, 2024.

• On August 7, 2024, the parties requested to hold Oral Arguments (OAs). Having received no response, they renewed the request on November 4. Still, no response.

• According to data from the Second Circuit, 32% of cases include Oral Arguments; the remaining cases are decided without them.

• In the first YPF expropriation appeal in 2016, Oral Arguments were held 216 days after the appeal was filed. The ruling was published in 2018—663 days after filing and 398 days after the Oral Arguments.

• The second appeal has now been pending for 440 days, and it’s still unclear whether Oral Arguments will be held.

• Of the three judges from the first appeal (Winter, Calabresi, and Chin), two remain on the bench (Winter passed away in 2020).

• We do not yet know the identities of the three judges handling the second appeal or whether they will opt to hold OAs.

• The significance of Oral Arguments lies almost entirely in the timeline for receiving a decision.

• If there are no OAs, I would venture to say we’ll see a decision before September 2025.

• If Oral Arguments are held, my opinion is that the ruling won’t be issued until 2026."

The above does/do not preclude the possibility of an earlier negotiated settlement if 'the causes and conditions' are right.

AIUI

GLA

.."It (Mayumba port) makes absolutely no sense as an export route for Belinga.

It's practically on the border with C-B...and about 150 Km up the coast from Pointe Indienne/'greater' Pointe Noire..."

As the feasibility study itself notes :

"3.4. Competitive landscape: Congo

The new port would undoubtedly benefit from additional timber exports from Congo, which is not in the interests of Gabon's forestry industry.

That said, the port would be accessible to operators located up to 150 to 200 kilometres from the port, including Congolese operators.

The Consultant has estimated that timber exports from Congo would represent 50,000 m3 in the least favourable scenario, 100,000 m3 in the base scenario and 200,000 m3 in the most favourable scenario.

The area near the proposed site for the port of Mayumba does not currently benefit from ANY [my caps] economic activity..."

It's a backwater, about as far from Belinga as it's possible to get and still be inside Gabon.

You can see why FMG has jibbed at the suggestion that it pay for this no doubt laudable public enterprise.

IMO

This is what another Dutch/US-based NGO has to say about Belinga

https://www.banktrack.org/project/belinga_iron_ore_project

This about the steel sector generally

https://www.banktrack.org/ourproject/banks_and_steel

This about Simandou generally

https://www.banktrack.org/project/simandou_iron_ore_project_guinea

And this about Rio Tinto specifically

https://www.banktrack.org/company/rio_tinto

Before lobbying its bankers

https://www.banktrack.org/download/letter_from_banktrack_aca_ctea_to_societe_generale_on_the_risks_of_investing_in_rio_tinto_and_winning_international_group_s_simandou_project_in_guinea/socgen_simandou_risks_impacts_docx.pdf.

SWF's and similar, of course, are usually less sensitive to lobbying pressures (as indeed Rio Tinto seems to have been so far).

But 'forewarned is forearmed'.

GLA and ATB

This document shows why the new Government is keen on Mayumba : a railway to it (and port development) opens up the whole of the South of the country, see map :

https://www.icafrica.org/fileadmin/documents/Transport_Meeting/S4-Port_of_Mayumba_-_Final_FR_1_.pdf

It makes absolutely no sense as an export route for Belinga.

It's practically on the border with C-B...and about 150 Km up the coast from Pointe Indienne/'greater' Pointe Noire.

Jes' sayin', like.

GLA and ATB

Https://leave-it-in-the-ground.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Exemplary-Cases-of-Good-Chinese-Investor-Responsibility_Case-5-Belinga.pdf

A pretty readable document, as far as it goes.

Only covers events to 2016 (I'd like to see Ch2 to 2023, pre Gabon 'palace coup'; and - of course - Ch 3 : what's happened since to cause Fortescue (apparently) to put things on hold at this now advanced stage).

It would also be worthwhile to do some 'what -ifery' and have someone work out how much Gabon (and its people) have lost out economically and developmentally as a result of the delays.......Dream on.

Interesting 'compare and contrast' with ZIOC's timeline and degree of regulatory compliance and NGO engagement (or lack thereof - most criticism (so far) seems to be fairly muted and 'unserious').

I get the impression that ZIOC's done more DD and compliance, but who knows? I guess we may well find out as/when things get serious and 'stuff' comes out of the woodwork.

Note that CMEC is a major player....and Vale had a walk-on part here, too.

GLA and ATB

.."Interesting there seems to be a view that there is a “risk/reward asymmetry”.

$1.8bn capex for an IRR of 26% probably wouldn’t put it in the top 10,000 resource projects in the world. Certainly not from a risk reward perspective!"

Sigh.

I note that you haven't had the integrity to acknowledge that on your chosen metric ZIOC is a country mile ahead of a share that you're keen to defend.

And I think you've (deliberately?) misunderstood the 'asymmetry' being referred to : not that from the perspective of a Project Strategic Investor BUYER but of a private investor considering whether ZIOC is worth looking at TODAY as an investment ie with a view eventually to SELL.

(1) The stockmarket in 2010 was willing to buy into ZIOC @ £1.56 a share, for 1/2 the asset. That 'worth' in itself underpins a reasonable valuation way North of where we are today (other things being equal £ 3.12*), making no allowance for (a) inflation ; (b) documented resource uplift potential (50%?/100%?); or (c) the recently-identified 'premium' value of ZIOC's 'green ore'.

*pre 20% dilution....

See my other post today for details (and links to source).

(2) Any more-than-casual reader will be aware of the key shareholders' emphasis on securing an NPV-related sale.....even at a fraction of the current NPV (never mind flexed for ZIOC's true potential, eg 60mtpa instead of 30mtpa as modelled) there's considerable upside :

Even a buyout @ 10% of basic NPV ( $7.36 Billion x 90% C-B free carry = $6.6 Bn) over 660m shares (for ease of maths) would be $1.00 or 80p a share.

(3) You actually refer to the 'speedbump' RNS of July 2024, but curiously (or maybe not?) ignore the underlying context : an interview in which a well regarded journalist made an indiscreet comment about ZIOC's prospects.

For ease of reference : https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13563755/SMALL-CAP-IDEA-Zanaga-Iron-Ore-48m-company-multi-billion-pound-asset.html

After rehashing a lot of the above, it concludes :

.."Despite these promising prospects, the market has yet to respond. This could signal a company on the cusp of a value crystallisation event.

Has the market failed to price this in, or is it still influenced by past events beyond management’s control?

Whatever the reason, Zanaga's current share price does not seem to reflect its future potential, presenting an opportunity for investors. However, substantial returns come with the risk that potential strategic partners might not materialise.

This scenario epitomises the classic risk-reward balance, rather than a risk-free investment."

So, that's a second rebuttal.

If you come back with another 'Yes, but..', I think everyone will have the measure of you.

ATB

Hi Jiving,

Very kind of you...but it's a summary conclusion of collaborative input/insight from a number of folk (you know who you are!).

I could have included the Proactive Arise IIP interview , ref to milestones delivery and mid-afternoon RNS for an event in 6 weeks' time as further 'curiosities', but am happy to leave something for [...] to discover for itself and add to the 'case FOR'....

PS I'm mildly surprised that ZIOC doesn't seem AFAICS to have been tipped ANYWHERE (even in jest as a 'mad money' punt) given the apparent risk/reward asymmetry.......

GLA and ATB

Hi MAJWandCo,

To address your comments in metrics you value, you dismissed a critical comment on the GBP board a few days ago ('significant dilution') by saying :

.."Let's get some facts straight, it was around 15% dilution, that is not significant at all for a small cap. Without dilution, small caps cant grow..."

You're quite right.

I hope, therefore, you'll be equally quick to credit ZIOC for having grown its share number from 280 million at IPO in 2010 for 1/2 of the asset to 675m today - but for 100% of the asset- on a like-for-like basis ie 560/675m or approx 20% increase in shares in issue OVER 14 YEARS.

That 20% has kept the project moving for over 14 years , including Board and management salaries and bonuses (another metric that - rightly- concerns you).

On the basis of 'when the facts change,'...etc, you might want to re-consider your position.

;->

DYOR, etc etc

...continued...

(6) This news came 3 Jan 2025 and might explain why FMG has suspended work at Belinga, including terminating driller CAPD's contract.

(7) Then, barely a week ago, Reuters posted this news of an FMG / Bao Wu tie-up

Australia's Fortescue partners with China Baowu to tackle steel industry decarbonisation | Reuters

..where there is talk of a Christmas Creek facility that seems to be a pilot study : at 1,500 metric - not million - tons p.a., this won't begin to address a target of FMG being 100% green in 5 years.

Have 2 x stories been conflated ? Does FMG have another solution - also involving a Bao Wu tie-up - in mind ?

(8) Any Congolese Nguesso clan loyalty that might have given FMG pause for thought will likely have disappeared when DSN's son-in-law Omar Bongo was replaced in Gabon's Aug 2023 palace coup. And the new Government's subsequent about-face on Project logistics must undermine both Belinga's commercial economics AND its timeline-to-completion [the very issues that previously led to FMG submitting an 'unpackaged ' bid at Simandou].

(9) I'm wondering whether - after frustrations with Simandou, Grand Inga and now -seemingly- Belinga, Fortescue will have another roll of the dice, this time at ZIOC ?  And, if not, what's its game plan going forward ?

I'm interested to find out from a whole industry dynamics perspective, as well as my own parochial point of view.

At the very least, I hope that your next evaluation will see ZIOC promoted to the 'more than likely to develop' category !...."

I could have included the Proactive interview , ref to milestones delivery and mid-afternoon RNS for an event in 6 weeks' time as further 'curiosities', but am happy to leave something for WoodMac to discover for itself and add to the 'case FOR'....

PS I'm mildly surprised that ZIOC doesn't seem to have been tipped ANYWHERE (even in jest as a 'mad money' punt) given the risk/reward asymmetry.......

GLA and ATB

Here's something I sent to WoodMac the other day, as follow-up to their earlier-expressed scepticism re ZIOC :

Comments, corrections etc welcome.

.."I wrote a while back re your seemingly inconsistent basis for evaluating the prospects of 2 x iron ore projects of interest, Zanaga (summary : 'unlikely to proceed') and Mbalam-Nabeba (summary: 'more than likely to develop').

(1) Since that time, it would seem that Mbalam-Nabeba has gone sideways/backwards, esp. on the litigation stumbling block, whilst ZIOC has progressed on a number of fronts :

- corporate restructuring (GLEN shareholding 'acquisition'); EPC Chinese contractor appointment ; hydropower MoU (CMEC); Feasibility Study Update; Port development MoU (Arise IIP); and appointment of a CEO, Marty Knauth, to drive Strategic Partner engagement, seemingly with some success.

- Congo-Brazzaville, for its part, has recently established a Fonds d'Investissement Minier Congolais, a vehicle intended to hold its 'free carry 'shareholding entitlement(s).

Congo : Brazzaville sets up mining investment firm - 14/11/2024 - Africa Intelligence

As an aside, one might well ask, why this didn't exist up to now ? ;-<

(2) There's also been a 'clearing of admin decks' - actively, with ZIOC settling its GLEN shareholder loan and its management outstanding PIK obligations; GLEN and ZIOC 'tweaking' their shareholdings, with both GLEN and Chair Elphick buying shares for the first time ...and passively : GLEN itself not taking up a BoD position vacated in Sept 2024.

(3) At the macro level, Aussie miners have begun to acknowledge that they may be facing an existential crisis in pursuit of 'green ore' , namely that a lot of the local resource is substandard : RTZ have acknowledged a problem of grade (surplus of SP 10/shortage of Pilbara), in RTZ's case the solution appears to be Simandou.

hTTps: www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2024/10/18/rio-reviewing-iron-ore-strategy/

(4) Fortescue has acknowledged (implicitly) the same issue...and identified its mine in Belinga, Gabon as the solution :

Fortescue to ship first iron ore from Gabon by year-end - MINING.COM

.."The agreement with Gabon was part of the miner’s ongoing search for high-grade deposits that it can mix with its current output to bring it closer in grade to that of rivals Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale."

(5) However, after a successful trial shipment ex Owendo port (as planned) it seems that the incoming Gabonese Govt wants to 'do a Simandou' and have a lengthier and costlier export route (972 Km vs 237 Km) that will serve ' nation-building' purposes as well,

see

hxxps://www.focusgroupemedia.com/port-en-eau-profonde-de-mayumba-chemin-de-fer-belinga-bouee-mayumba-de-grands-projets-et-denormes-defis-a-relever/

.."Mayumba deep-water port, Belinga-Bouée-Mayumba railway: major projects and huge challenges ahead.."

..Continued.....

Continued

..."And, if not, what's its game plan going forward ?

I'm interested to find out from a whole industry dynamics perspective, as well as my own parochial point of view.

At the very least, I hope that your next evaluation will see ZIOC promoted to the 'more than likely to develop' category !"

GLA and ATB

Continued...

(2) There's also been a 'clearing of admin decks' - actively, with ZIOC settling its GLEN shareholder loan and its management outstanding PIK obligations; GLEN and ZIOC 'tweaking' their shareholdings, with both GLEN and Chair Elphick buying shares for the first time ...and passively : GLEN itself not taking up a BoD position vacated in Sept 2024.

(3) At the macro level, Aussie miners have begun to acknowledge that they may be facing an existential crisis in pursuit of 'green ore' , namely that a lot of the local resource is substandard : RTZ have acknowledged a problem of grade (surplus of SP 10/shortage of Pilbara), in RTZ's case the solution appears to be Simandou.

hTTps: www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2024/10/18/rio-reviewing-iron-ore-strategy/

(4) Fortescue has acknowledged (implicitly) the same issue...and identified its mine in Belinga, Gabon as the solution :

Fortescue to ship first iron ore from Gabon by year-end - MINING.COM

.."The agreement with Gabon was part of the miner’s ongoing search for high-grade deposits that it can mix with its current output to bring it closer in grade to that of rivals Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale."

(5) However, after a successful trial shipment ex Owendo port (as planned) it seems that the incoming Gabonese Govt wants to 'do a Simandou' and have a lengthier and costlier export route (972 Km vs 237 Km) that will serve ' nation-building' purposes as well,

see

hxxps://www.focusgroupemedia.com/port-en-eau-profonde-de-mayumba-chemin-de-fer-belinga-bouee-mayumba-de-grands-projets-et-denormes-defis-a-relever/

.."Mayumba deep-water port, Belinga-Bouée-Mayumba railway: major projects and huge challenges ahead.."

(6) This news came 3 Jan 2025 and might explain why FMG has suspended work at Belinga, including terminating driller CAPD's contract.

(7) Then, barely a week ago, Reuters posted this news of an FMG / Bao Wu tie-up

Australia's Fortescue partners with China Baowu to tackle steel industry decarbonisation | Reuters

..where there is talk of a Christmas Creek facility that seems to be a pilot study : at 1,500 metric - not million - tons p.a., this won't begin to address a target of FMG being 100% green in 5 years.

Have 2 x stories been conflated ? Does FMG have another solution - also involving a Bao Wu tie-up - in mind ?

(8) Any Congolese Nguesso clan loyalty that might have given FMG pause for thought will likely have disappeared when DSN's son-in-law Omar Bongo was replaced in Gabon's Aug 2023 palace coup. And the new Government's subsequent about-face on Project logistics must undermine both Belinga's commercial economics AND its timeline-to-completion [the very issues that previously led to FMG submitting an 'unpackaged ' bid at Simandou].

(9) I'm wondering whether - after frustrations with Simandou, Grand Inga and now -seemingly- Belinga, Fortescue will have another roll of the dice, this time at ZIOC ?  And, if not, what's its game plan goin

By way of generic rejoinder, here's something I sent to a trade publication the other day, in response to their scepticism re ZIOC :

Comments, corrections etc welcome.

.."I wrote a while back re your seemingly inconsistent basis for evaluating the prospects of 2 x iron ore projects of interest, Zanaga (summary : 'unlikely to proceed') and Mbalam-Nabeba (summary: 'more than likely to develop').

(1) Since that time, it would seem that Mbalam-Nabeba has gone sideways/backwards, esp. on the litigation stumbling block, whilst ZIOC has progressed on a number of fronts :

- corporate restructuring (GLEN shareholding 'acquisition'); EPC Chinese contractor appointment ; hydropower MoU (CMEC); Feasibility Study Update; Port development MoU (Arise IIP); and appointment of a CEO, Marty Knauth, to drive Strategic Partner engagement, seemingly with some success.

- Congo-Brazzaville, for its part, has recently established a Fonds d'Investissement Minier Congolais, a vehicle intended to hold its 'free carry 'shareholding entitlement(s).

Congo : Brazzaville sets up mining investment firm - 14/11/2024 - Africa Intelligence

As an aside, one might well ask, why this didn't exist up to now ? ;-

Hi MM,

Thanks for this...and sometimes the Universe DOES provide...

.."FWIW My working assumption is that any current ZIOC option activity lies close to Shard, via their reputation and the recent 'gerrymandering' of the blocks of shares into close hands at 5.25p on July 1st. That's the source of liquidity for this type of activity, I reckon..."

Today's FT coincidentally talks of a rapprochemont between Lars Windhorst, German Wunderkind who has /had 'form' with Shard and his latest business partner/admirer/fanboy/mark (take your pick)...

.."Nat Rothschild commits to Windhorst ‘partnership’ despite lawsuit

Scion of European banking dynasty “hopes to withdraw” claim against German financier.."

Much of the Windhorst controversy centres around his decade-long dealings with H2O, where Shard had a walk-on part (at least).

All covered in this 31 minute investigative expose,

https://www.ft.com/content/d7469cfa-3dd7-4123-ab70-6ce265d622e2

which includes an Emirati Private Bank, the IMDB scandal, the FCA and Natexis Bank, Hertha Berlin football team..and of course the obligatory Israeli spies and superyachts.

Shard gets the briefest of mentions around min 16:00...

Windhorst is definitely a 'larger than life' character

"Something for the weekend, sir!"

GLA

Some suggestion elsewhere that the appointment's because AET's decided that 'it's going to need a bigger boat', perhaps elsewhere in Africa.

My comment:

.."Re AET opportunities in Africa, I see that AET's CEO McDade will be a speaker at this upcoming forum in Congo-Brazzaville:

hTTps: congoenergyinvestment.com/

Q : Why Congo ?

A : "A New Gas Master Plan, set to be implemented alongside the national gas company, will play a crucial role in driving growth, while the introduction of a New Gas Code will unlock opportunities for the commercialization of STRANDED ASSETS AND FLARED GAS."

May just be (1) C-B looking to copy Angola's playbook and / or (2) an opportunity for AET to network and 'fly the flag/show willing', of course.

He's in some interesting company, on the face of it :

hTTps: congoenergyinvestment.com/attend/conference-speakers

C-B is trying to get its act together and be more (Western) investor-friendly, the national oilco has been (mis)managed by kleptocrats, so I'd have decidedly mixed feelings about AET getting involved, but where there's asymmetry there's opportunity...

ATB

Thanks to all contributors to this thread!

Options are a closed book to me, but at least I feel I've skimmed the pages and have a 'feel' (not an understanding!) for what may well have been going on.

Q : are we likely to see a recurrence of such 'animal spirits' if and when there's a 'material' milestone or two..or is this more likely to have been a one-off ?

TIA

Heavy hitters.

hxxps://investor.com/rias/stifel-nicolaus-company-793

Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, registered in 1975, serves 52 state(s) with a licensed staff of 3,271 advisors. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company manages $149.2 billion and provides investment advisory services for 211,856 clients (1:65 advisor/client ratio).

The Group AUM are abt $ 350 billion.

Tennyson is part of Shard Capital Partners LLP, with approx £ 1Bn in AUM.

AFAICS

ATB