Member Info for extrader

Hi Jiving,

Hard to know whether FMG's problems are external or self-inflicted : Twiggy seems to have a staff turnover issue, including losing his Gabon country head in the summer.

OTOH, there appears to have been some change of plan in-country re the Belinga mine export solution . Copilot says :

.."The original export route for the Bélinga iron ore involved a proposed 237 km long railway branch line from Booué to the port of Owendo. This railway was intended to facilitate the transportation of iron ore from the Bélinga mining site to the port for export. There were also plans to extend the railway to a port at Santa Clara, which would have increased the total railway length to 560 km.

In 2023, Fortescue DID indeed do its pilot export shipment, truck and rail to Owendo.

Now it seems that the incoming Govt wants to 'do a Simandou' and have a lengthier and costlier export route that will serve ' nation-building' purposes as well,

see https://www.focusgroupemedia.com/port-en-eau-profonde-de-mayumba-chemin-de-fer-belinga-bouee-mayumba-de-grands-projets-et-denormes-defis-a-relever/

.."Mayumba deep-water port, Belinga-Bouée-Mayumba railway: major projects and huge challenges ahead

3 January 2025.."

Among the major projects announced by the Head of State, Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, as priorities for 2025, are the port of Mayumba, strategically important for opening up the country by sea, and the Belinga-Bouée-Mayumba railway line. These projects are aimed at economic diversification, reducing dependence on regional port infrastructure, optimising the transport of natural resources and opening up a number of localities.

The Bélinga-Mayumba railway project:

It is 972 km long, compared with 669 km for the Owendo-Franceville line. The Owendo-Franceville railway is less than 200 km long than the Bélinga-Mayumba railway, and crosses 5 provinces (Estuaire, Moyen-Ogooué, Ogooué-Ivindo, Ogooué-lolo and Haut-Ogooué). It took 12 years to build (started in 1974 and delivered in 1986), and involved at least 17 European companies working in a consortium. It was financed by European funds to the tune of more than 1,500 billion FCFA at the time (equivalent to more than double that today), and generated thousands of jobs.

The railway announced by Oligui Nguema could cross Ogooué-Ivindo, Ogooué-Lolo, Ngounié and Nyanga, opening up several towns in the interior of the country in the process. A number of jobs should therefore be created over several years..."

Newspaper puts cost at 'USD 5 to 10 billion'...

With Twiggy's mine now effectively 'stranded' again, he may have decided to draw stumps.

The REALLY interesting bit for me is that FMG's partner in Belinga is/was Africa Transformation and Industrialisation Fund (ATIF = 18%).

The same ATIF is also 23.7% stakeholder in Arise IIP....our new partners at PN...

I wonder whether the changes in Gabon contributed to the conclusion of OUR deal?

'Who/whom?'

ATB

Hi MM,

Just a nuance to your exposition re GLEN and its (likely) diminished role going forward, esp. given previous dealings : it would seem -in that connection - that there's still a bit of 'unfinished business' that GLEN would doubtless want to see tidied up sooner rather than later :

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2024/12/20/impatient-glencore-badgers-brazzaville-to-pay-debt,110354498-art

Congo

Impatient Glencore badgers Brazzaville to pay debt

The Congolese state still owes the Swiss trader $349m, but its ability to keep up payments is shrinking. [...]"

It'll likely be owed to GLEN's bankers, of course, rather than GLEN itself, but even so, GLEN is evidently a 'motivated' participant in the later-stage 'horse-trading' that frequently accompanies the fine-tuning of big corporate negotiations.

ATB

Hi Jiving,

Totally agree your assessment of MK, AT and the case of 'horses for courses'.

ZIOC , of course, also has the operational expertise of Velloza (and, maybe to a lesser extent , Colin Harris) https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnny-velloza-

but he's a NED....

Folk commented at the time of appointment re MK's lack of director status, maybe with hindsight that's actually been quite intentional : a useful cut-out/ 'plausible deniability'.

'The proof of the pudding will be in the eating'.

I, for one, am getting peckish.

ATB

Hi Mitch984,

.."The last one we had was RNSd on 28/2/2019 and was held on 28/3/19 - a four week gap..."

I've been around long enough to remember that ;-<

IIRC , it was a bit of a 'nothingburger', with ZIOC struggling for something to say : talk of an EPP, trucking solutions to Gabon or Mossendjo, pelletising (regular and - BSL - cold), etc etc.

They could have waited 8 weeks and I doubt that much would have changed in the presentation...

With the corporate restructuring; balance sheet clean-up; 'final' (?) SCM manoeuvres (incl Elphick/GLEN); reported meetings with Strategics; creation of FIMC; MoU re Arise/Port; Sounda dam in the (FOCAC) offering; AT repeated reference to NY newsflow; etc etc, it seems to me that 'this time, it's different'...

IMO.

Famous last words.

GLA

Great idea!

Most folk won't realise that Big Den's batting average on 'cornerstones laid' to 'projects up and-running' is about 1 in 3 or 4...

Of course, that's perfickly OK so long as ZIOC is 'the 1' of the three (or four).

Which it is , of course.

Knocks on wood!

A great weekend to 1 and ALL....NOT just 1 in 3 or 4....

ATB

.."It is going to be a long few weeks waiting, but there should be some excitement with further announcement to while away the time..."

Well,

- on 7/8 Jan, WangYi will be visiting C-B. He's a Politburo Member and China's Foreign Affairs Minister, coming to discuss FOCAC ( Big Den Co-chair) and maybe progress those project finance facilities that Little Den signed off with Ambassador LiYan a couple of weeks before Xmas...

This MIGHT include Sounda Dam / China Overseas Project

https://chinaglobalsouth.com/2024/09/19/construction-to-begin-next-year-on-massive-chinese-financed-hydroelectric-dam-in-congo-brazzaville/

.."Congo-Brazzaville will begin the construction of a major new hydroelectric dam in January 2025, the government said Wednesday..."

and/or news re financing of CMEC's ZIOC-specific hydropower commitment (see below);

- on 14-16 Jan there's the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh : maybe we'll see how Wilt's firmness re offtake has performed?

- we might see release of the 30 Sept 24 announced ' optimisation study on the applicability of unique technology relating to the Zanaga 30Mtpa Project ("Optimisation Study") with the potential to provide further capital and operating cost savings beyond the results of the 2024 FS Update..";

- we're also surely due some news re the December 2023 MoU with CMEC, which anticipated:

.." Advance engineering and related studies for the identified hydroelectric sites near the Zanaga Project.

o Draft arrangements for the funding of development and operation of the identified hydroelectric project(s), between the government of the Republic of Congo and third Parties."

The latter of which may have delivery/release dates dictated by the 29th Jan start of Chinese New Year....

And all this apart from anything else that ZIOC may want to release to 'chivvy' things along (see StarBright's explanation elsewhere for the paradox ' intraday RNS to announce an event in 5 weeks time...'

With maybe publication of a New Year tip or two to add some spice....

Pls add to the list any other inflexion points that I've overlooked!

GLA

Or maybe it's THIS Maloukou..

https://www.gem.wiki/Maloukau_Trade_Industrial_Estate_solar_farm

.which turns out to be another 'white elephant'.

https://www.adiac-congo.com/content/energies-renouvelables-la-congolaise-des-panneaux-solaires-confrontee-au-manque-de

Renewable energies: Congolaise des panneaux solaires faces funding shortfall

Saturday 26 February 2022

Launched on 24 November 2011, the Congolaise des panneaux solaires (Copasol), located in Edou, in the Cuvette department, is struggling to get off the ground. A situation that is of increasing concern to national representatives.

.." Copasol, the fruit of Sino-Congolese cooperation, is a limited company with capital of FCFA 1,820,000,000, divided between the Congolese state (65%) and the Chinese company ZTE Corporation (35%). The installed production capacity is 50 MW, or 120 solar panels per hour.

‘How far has work progressed on this production unit? At a time when our country is determined to diversify its economy, can we count on the presence of solar panels on the renewable energy market at national and sub-regional level, opening up new prospects for stable employment for young Congolese?

Responding to these two questions, the Minister for Industrial Development pointed out that construction had been fully completed, and production trials had been successfully carried out on the various lines. ‘In the absence of funding to cover the estimated requirement of around FCFA 3,800,000,000, the plant has been shut down since 2019. The government is currently exploring all possible ways of bringing other partners into the capital. While awaiting a final agreement with identified partners, the government has included support for Copasol in the 2022-2026 NDP‘, said Antoine Thomas Nicéphore Fylla Saint Eudes, adding that this reflected the authorities’ interest in the production of solar panels and the development of renewable energies..."

Then ZTE Corp China apparently gets replaced by UltraGreen Corp of the US...

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2021/02/01/ultra-green-corp-brightens-hopes-of-ailing-solar-panel-firm,109639087-art

There's a glossy programme

https://web.archive.org/web/20240201091727/https://ultragreencorporation.com/project/republic-of-congo-50mw/

then ....silence.

ATB

Today's 'feels important' but I'm not quite sure what point it's making...and to/for whom...

.."A complicated matter

According to a survey of international institutions, looking at Congo's mining in previous years (1970-1980), mines still make only a very small contribution to the national economy.

Hence the government's determination to give itself the best possible opportunities to exploit its considerable potential through a number of agreements signed with

international partners, such as China for the potash project.{Ed.: LuYan for Mining Congo, in the Koilou district].

The country has no mining tradition, and its private sector is non-existent, apart from a few small-scale mining operators, the Congo needs to make greater efforts and commitments, to promote rational management of its resources and ensure the emergence of this sector that the development of oil exploitation has largely relegated to the background.

The choice of partners and their ability to complete the projects identified is another matter altogether.

Mining is a highly complex field, not just any operator, national or foreign, can get involved.

The opportunity to diversify the economy by exploiting the Congolese subsoil [depends on] the availability of energy, [the lack of] which is a real obstacle to industrialisation.

In other words, beyond the complexity of the sector, winning this battle presupposes a constant regular supply of electricity, which will enable industries in the areas where they are located.

The Maloukou area is a textbook case in point...."

It's clear the editor is having a dig, what's not clear - to me at least - is at whom?

Maloukou SEZ was initiated by Big Den in 2011, using Asperbras (yes, them) as industrial machinery suppliers/installers. It's never become operational (13 years later) and the machinery is (still) moth-balled, if not vandalised/cannibalised.

However, its intended POWER source is/was Imboulou dam, built by 'our' CMEC and where structural foundation problems have recently arisen. [Ed.: not CMEC's fault, C-B stopped (preventative) maintenance/inspection a while back, citing budget constraints].

Is this a dig at (a) Big Den ? (b) 'the Chinese' ? (c) CMEC ? (d) summat else?

If nothing else, the timing is curious.

GLA and ATB

Mind you, I see there's this disgruntled BTL comment.

.."Let him visit the moribund tortuous Dolisie/Pointe-Noire road, especially the Mengo toll/Thystère roundabout section. Chinese companies are truly shaming China in Congo. I especially do not dare mention the many dodgy mining and forestry projects..."

So the Chinese aren't universally loved either.

GLA

Hi StarBright,

Re packed program over next 5 weeks to 11th Feb, add this item :

Tweet from LiYan, China's ambassador to C-B

.."A new high point in Sino-Congolese relations! Mr #WANGYi, member of the Political Bureau of the #PCC Central Committee and #China's #Foreign #Affairs Minister will pay a #visit to #Congo on 7 and 8 January 2025. This will be the 35th consecutive year that the Chinese Foreign Minister has visited #Africa on his first overseas visit at the beginning of the year and demonstrates the particular importance attached by China to the Congo in his capacity as #Co-Chairman of #FOCAC! China and Congo will work hand in hand to assume the responsibilities of the FOCAC co-chairs. "

On 1 January 2023, Wang was appointed as the director of the Office of the CPC Central Foreign Affairs Commission, making him China's top diplomat under CPC general secretary Xi Jinping.

I wonder if he's there to sign/'milk' any of those project finance arrangements that have been under discussion?

Ho hum

Give that dog a bone and a ruffle behind the ears!

.."So, yes, part of this process involves identifying the actual strategic partner, but it also encompasses everything else that happens from start to finish in establishing those partnerships..."

..except actually IDENTIFYING them, FFS ;-<

Totally agree the sentiments in para 1.

In para 6, I think you mean 02 Jan 2025, not as posted.

ATB and sincere thanks for your input over the years.

Hi NewKOTB,

Not on Thursday, IME. Mid-day is the start of the weekend.

Maybe things have changed.

AFAIAA

Hi nibj,

Interesting points !

.."So would not be super surprised if they will put 2 offers on the table. 1). get XX pr share now and move on. 2). stay onboard and get dividend when/and if we reach 30M ton pr year and based on marketprice..."

If your scenario plays out, I'd like to see re (1) a Loan Note alternative (from a credible issuer, at a sensible interest rate) that AIUI would defer potential tax and / or be acceptable security for liquidity management purposes and , re (2) a mechanism for retaining at least some interest in the upside ('contingent consideration'), again 'tradeable' for liquidity management purposes and to retain a vestigial interest in the Project.

IF AT is reading this, pls note!

Though, like you - said with no knowledge of your circs - the temptation to take the cash and move on might be hard to resist (esp if 'er indoors has a say in the matter).

XXIII.

Ah, make the most of what we yet may spend,

Before we too into the Dust Descend;

Dust into Dust, and under Dust, to lie,

Sans Wine, sans Song, sans Singer and—sans End!

LXXI.

And much as Wine has play'd the Infidel,

And robb'd me of my Robe of Honour—well,

I often wonder what the Vintners buy

One half so precious as the Goods they sell."

From the Rubai'yat of Omar el Khayyam ( a great poem for wine-lovers).

ATB

Hi Feeks et al,

(1) I've adjusted your position for 7.5p to 175p and added beardozer and Darkini out of interest...and to show how little difference an individual post makes.

Jiving and MM have been included at their (then) NPV calc...and then again at their 'conservative' numbers...again, to show how little difference an individual prediction makes.

(2) The average ie 'best guess' under various scenarios is :

(a) 282.4p (Raw, full Jiving/MM + beardozer);

(b) 301.7p (Raw, 1/2 Jiving /MM , Feeks adjust);

(c) 261.6p (eliminate lowest and highest -70p and 900p, full Jiving/MM);

(d) 289.9p (repeat (c), add Darkini 1000p)

(3) The revised list (incl some non-participants - you know who you are) stands as follows :

70p glenmorangie Shelter 5%

82p GTA5 U24.GOV.UA 5%

100p Tommo1985 Cats Protection 1%

120p SolomonB BirthLink 2%

138p cheets2 Christie Hospital 10%

141p Driving Christian Aid/Congo 5%

156p Hobbypunter Alzheimers 2%

167p MerMillions-1% to Cancer Research

175p Feeks NSPCC 1%

185p ShrewdDude67 Macmillan 2%

199p Veteran10 Barnardo's % Pls complete

200p extrader Alzheimer Research 2%

225p Iceman MND Research 2% should that be IceTone?

230p AberdeenMan Macmillan 2%

236p sadako Katie Piper Foundation / Fundacion Amor y Esperanza 1% each

250p TheDealBreaker Hinckley Homeless 1%

285p HappySwinner Alzheimer Research ?% Pls complete

318p.....................................Jiving 'cautious' estimate

342p nibj ?Congo humanitarian 5%

420p Rafaley Cancer Research/ St Peters Hospice 1% each

555p ...........................MinorMiner compromise (meet you halfway)

636p.......................Jiving ('calculated estimate')

690p allthatguff New Earth Envoy 6.9%

722p Alwayshoping Cornwall Air Ambulance. 1%

840p ............................MinorMiner ('calculated estimate')

900p......................beardozer

1000p...........................Darkini

Jiving and MM included because of their sterling (geddit) work, beardozer and Darkini to show how little difference an individual 'outlier' makes.

E & OE,

GLA and ATB

Little Den's tweet 19th December :

.."On December 19, 2024, an economic and technical cooperation agreement was signed in #Brazzaville between the Republic of #Congo and the People's Republic of #Chine . This agreement provides for A DONATION THAT WILL ALLOW THE FINANCING OF NUMEROUS PROJECTS that the government of Congo will have to submit to that of China, to contribute to our development efforts.

Nguesso proceeded to sign this legal instrument for the Congolese party while the Chinese party was represented by HE Li Yan, head of the Chinese diplomatic mission in Congo.

This new agreement thus MATERIALIZES THE ANNOUNCEMENTS MADE BY PRESIDENT XI at the 9th China-Africa Cooperation Forum (FOCAC).

It will also contribute to consolidating more than 60 years of friendly and cooperative relations between the two countries..."

LiYan's New Year message underscores...

.."A new year has begun and everything is renewed.

We are about to usher in a brand new year, 2025, which is also the inaugural year of Congo's assumption of the co-chairmanship of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).

I wish the Congolese people and all friends who care about and support the development of Sino-Congolese relations a happy new year!

Let us share a prosperous and rewarding 2025!"

Insha'allah.

GLA

PS...." BTC, or hopefully invest somewhere with a forum wthout the relentless, tedious and transparent ramping..."

Not something anyone could say about BTC....EVER.

Shome mishtake, Shirley?

Hi Darkini,

In the happy way that the Universe provides, I've just picked up an ex-library book for the princely sum of 25c :

'The Wisdom of Crowds' Auth.: James Surowiecki.*

It explains why an off-the-cuff single contribution carries less weight than collective 'considered opinion' - however well or ill-informed - because it's not contributing to the distribution curve.

* the concept's also relevant in fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, artificial intelligence, military history and politics.

I'll be embarrassed - but cope somehow - if your random dart hits the target!

HTH

Hi StarBright,

Good point re long lead time to 11th February. But in some respects, it's not actually that long...

Having CLEARLY flagged all the 'upcoming', I wonder whether ZIOC is free of NOMAD pressure to say 'we know of no reason' etc, if there's a sustained rise in the s/p over this period ?

The choreography of these bits might have something to do with any timing issues :

(a) Future Minerals Forum dates : 14 to 16 January 2025; and

(b) Chinese New Year: 2025—Year of the Snake (Lunar New Year)

https://chinesenewyear.net

Lunar New Year 2025 falls on Wednesday, January 29th, and celebrations culminate with the Lantern Festival on February 12th.

In between, C-B's term as co-chair of FOCAC started yesterday....and we know that LiYan signed a number of 'agreements' with Little Den a couple of weeks back...which MIGHT include the 'promised' multi-billion $ financing of Sounda dam...See his twitter feed for details.

All of the above MAY be some of the pipeline/milestone stages that AT was referring to...up to a 'big reveal' on the 11th.

More prosaically, IF any deal is phased or includes 'contingent consideration', it might be considered good form to have a 'town hall' type meeting where the detail was explained to the wider market...and (maybe) Elphick and co step forward for a bow...

Your insight is probably worth a lot more than my somewhat fanciful guess, though!

GLA

The CAPD RNS I promised

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/capital-CAPD/share-news/Capital-Limited-Q3-2024-Trading-Update/94731931

Perhaps conveniently, the RNS ALSO tells us that there'll be some drilling equipment looking for (nearby) re-deployment...

.."Mining revenues were strong in Q3 2024, particularly driven by the extended activity at Sukari. At Belinga, however, Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) has now decided to pivot its development strategy from pre-production mining to resource development and, consequently, given the very limited mining activity at Belinga, has made the decision to conclude our mining contract early. As a result, Capital will have available mining fleets, across both Egypt and Gabon, once demobilisations are complete. We are now finalising next steps for this mining equipment and will then update the market."

This snippet from the CAPD BB

.."Tamesis research -

Valuation -

..... The update on FMG is unexpected, but we believe Capital can tender for an alternate contract, or sell the equipment. Our revenue forecast for 2024 is now on low end of guidance at $356m vs $359m before. We have had to downgrade our revenue forecast for 2025 (by 7.0%) and 2026 (by 6.8%) driven by FMG’s early termination of their mining contract at Belinga...."

This is how CAPD describes itself:

..""At Capital, we provide full service drilling solutions to customers within the global minerals industry, focussing on the African markets.

Our drilling services include: blast hole, delineation, directional, exploration, grade control and underground drilling.

Our range of ancillary services includes: directional software; shot loading and firing; surveying and geophysical logging; mineral analytic services; and on-site safety monitoring systems."

"Capital Drilling is one of the largest diversified drilling companies globally. Our extensive fleet enables us to provide drilling services across all phases of the mining cycle, from greenfields exploration to mine-sites, in both surface and underground mining operations. "

Maybe another star just got into alignment...

GLA and ATB