Member Info for extrader

Hi gods, Thank you for bringing a content-rich and bias-free contribution to the discussion. Lazard is under no illusions as to the challenges it faces as advisor to C-B as it tries to get the IMF - required debt restructuring that it needs, surely, as part of conditions precedent for any major project financing. For a flavour, see http://www.lazardnet.com/wm/docs/sp0/9710/EmergingMarketsSovereign-RepublicOfCongo_en.pdf?pagename=Emerging+Markets+Sovereign+Outlook and https://www.challenges.fr/economie/quand-la-banque-lazard-dirigee-par-mathieu-pigasse-rejoint-dominique-strauss-kahn-et-stephane-fouks-au-chevet-du-congo_558075 Like you, I'm in for the long haul (but likely not as big a haul as you, depends on holding size x target price, of course) - and will be agreeably surprised if anything happens in the shorter term. ATB ATB

Hi MM, ..."Is there any other explanation other than that you are a liar, and a bullshitting de-ramping troll?..." Yes, and I've already given it. But don't let the facts get in the way of a good story. ATB

Hi all, Well, it's also kind of odd that I - the supposed de-ramper - have given an out line of my ZIOC holding as % age of the mining element of my SIPP (1 of 3 guessable) shareholdings, yet all of the bullish posters are suddenly coy or decide to 'play the man'. Join the dots.... ATB

Hi all, See : www.arbitration-ch.org/asset/.../article-michael-kim-pursui. Conclusion : " a substantial Award against a recalcitrant sovereign debtor requires a much more sophisticated approach than ordinary commercial debt collection. Employing normal creditor thinking to such an unusual situation can severely damage the value of a fragile asset. On the other hand, an Award creditor who is open to creative approaches can sometimes monetize the Award without years of litigation and expense". Commisimpex have been pressing for a couple of decades, it's in C-B's interest to settle, it's in RIO's interest to remove some of the 'heat' re its other corruption cases and get in the IMF's books. I find it interesting, by the way, that I seem to be one of the few posters that consciously declare my opinion as 'hold' whilst others - 'no names, no pack drill' - claim to have 'no opinion'. Go figure.

Hi MM, And here's what I said re the East African 'jolly' : ..."SGR phase 1 took 3 1/2 years to build out 300 miles at a cost of USD 4 Bn (90 %) Chinese Exim. To get from Nairobi to Pointe Noire as the crow / NI flies is another 2,500 miles - and of course involves going through failed state DRC. Simple maths suggests this project alone would absorb the unused commitments of President-for-life Xi's USD 60 BN Africa spend. I'd rather it was spent on things closer to home ie infrastructure within C-B...." Even assuming they don't try to join the dots (geddit ?) and start at the P.N. end, that's a lot of time/lot of dough....and we haven't 'joined the dots' upcountry to the mine. There's not that much interest, AFAIAA, in going from Mombasa to Zanaga.... Jes' sayin', like. ATB Certainly there is a lot of encouraging 'mood music', including the ministerial 'jolly' that you reference. Who do you think will sign first - ENI or Chinalco ? I'm not clear from your posts which you believe more likely.

Hi MM, We x-posted. I write ..."Maybe there's a deal to be done..." Isn't that (Commisimpex gets its money , the C-B Govt clears arrears, RIO gets an asset - and peace of mind) consistent with what I said ? Or is a 3-way deal - win/win/win (4 way if you include us !) that difficult to grasp ? What IS your problem, man ? ATB

Hi MM, I'm not deramping at all. Have you never heard of 'debt for equity' ? C-B Govt has a debt.(ie a liability)....and as and when ZIOP goes ahead, it will have 10 % equity (ie an asset). Commisimpex is clearly determined to play hardball. It appears to have some law behind it. C-B meanwhile, with IMF breathing down its neck, is trying to get its house in order. Maybe there's a deal to be done. Potential investors like to think their assets won't be at risk of seizure in satisfaction of some outstanding grievance. You don't have a monopoly on dot-joining, this seems to have more merit than posting a Minister's 'jolly ' in East Africa to look at a railway line several thousand Km away as conclusive evidence that 'she's gonna blow, Captain'. ATB

Hi all, Maybe this : https://www.reuters.com/article/us-congorepublic-commisimpex-exclusive/exclusive-construction-firm-chases-oil-taxes-royalties-in-1-billion-congo-debt-row-idUSKCN1C12AX I've previously posted that maybe it was the IMF, in town to discuss rescheduling, that wants potential 'stakeholders' to "share the pain". Perhaps it's Commisimpex, who from a quick search seem to be quite aggressive and creative about trying to get their (claimed US$ 1 Bn +) money back : blocking Eurobond payments, trying to seize C-B overseas embassy accounts etc. Maybe they'll have to be squared , along with all the other vested interests. Bees and honey-pots. ATB

Hi MM, I agrre that the Kore IPO document should make interesting general 'mood music' reading , as I said last Sunday. The specific read-across to ZIOP is constrained by Kore (90 Km north of Pointe Noire) reportedly planning to have its own dedicated export terminal. ..."3) The Kore potash project (awaitng IPO end March, should be worth a read) Has Sintokoula (97%), Kola (100%) and Dougou (100%) deposits/concessions. Exec BoD financial types, NEDs a good technical mix. Their planned marine terminal appears to be 80-90 KM separate from PN, 2 mtpa, north of Mandingo Keyes.Key shareholders are Oman sovereign wealth fund (17%), SQM Chile fertiliser co (17%) and Harlequin Investments (13%), latter is the vehicle of the Howarth Howards, a former Lord Mayor of London, FWIW. Plus (tomshare any info ? ) 9.8% Dingyi Investment Limited - " Finance and wine trading", no less. Technip/Vinci are supposedly doing a DFS , for Q3 2018 and Rothschild are named as Financial advisors. Maybe Lazards (advisors to C-B Govt.) can cut a debt - for -equity (or viceversa) deal with Rothschilds over a good bottle or two...? (1) - Mengo and (3) Kore - look plausible. (1) Mengo may be competing with ZIOP for wharf space at PN. (3) Kore is making its own export terminal arrangements. Where's the electricity - and the money - coming from , for (1), (3) and us ? Most lenders, whether private or state, have Country Risk limits (for obvious reasons).....and " When it's gone, it's gone"... Time for a new scramble for Africa ? And - subject to its IPO document - should ZIOC holders hedge their bets with Kore ?....." ATB

Hi MM, You are referring to the BoD and their track record, which is historic, which is by definition 'looking back'. You've chosen to ignore the link provided to Carter tweets more recent than yours - and the issues that they raise LOOKING FORWARD. ATB

Hi No. 1 SS, Good spot, thanks for that. With Koodaideri reportedly costing USD 2.2 Bn, that leaves USD 0.8 Bn for ZIOP and/or other stuff. ATB

Hi MM, Colin Harris is obviously eminently qualified on technical , commercial and 'connections' grounds, as you've pointed out already. Those skillsets, whilst useful , don't address the challenge for ZIOP, which is to get a deal that also works politically and cosmetically. The Brett Carter RTZ post you refer mentions in passing its involvement in a bribes investigation in Guinea being led by the SFO, which may give RTZ pause for thought. Esp. given his later feed where the C-B opposition is (bravely ) asking the IMF to require audit of SNPC (C-B oilco) before any bail-out / debt restructure. Carter obviously has an agenda, so 'consider the source', but there's some more recent stuff about ENI, money-laundering , suppression of the opposition, ransacking of transparency NGO etc etc that helps explains the current 'political risk' side of things in C-B. https://screenshots.firefox.com/pojLDIVUXfZ7TSyJ/twitter.com GLEN, of course, isn't exactly squeaky clean itself (publiceye.ch), so the IMF will have a tricky balancing act between the various 'stakeholders'. Especially in the more recent 'holier than thou' environment (think #MeToo, guncontrol, facebook, Panama papers etc etc) But , as the saying goes, if you saw how they were made, you'd never eat a sausage.... ATB

Hi MM, You can be a 'glass half full' type, a 'glass half empty' type...or someone who wants to get the size of the glass right. You write : "Relatively speaking it adds under 4% to Glencore annual thermal production, while adding 88% to their coking coal production. By this measure it is primarily a coking coal deal. Adding 88% to annual coking deal IS a big commitment to steel, by anybody's measure." Looking at it another way, If you add Hail Creek 2017 production split on to GLEN's 2017 production split , you get (113.9 + 4.1) combined thermal of 118 and (6.1 + 5.25) 11.3 combined coking. Pre Hail GLEN was 95 : 5 thermal, on a combined basis , it falls vertiginously .......to 91 %. Pre Hail GLEN was 5 % coking coal, post Hail that rises to 8.7%. " Lies, damned lies and statistics, " eh ;-> ? 'Tweaking' your overall product offering by (5.25/129.3) = 4.1 % is not, by most people's measure, the 'game changer' you are claiming. I fail to see how Elphick's comment that GLEN's project team has worked well with ZIOC's team can realistically be interpreted as more than 'common courtesy' (cynically, a supplicant's hat-tip). If GLEN made a similar comment (for the first time) that MIGHT be a straw in the wind.... ATB PS Speaking of 'common courtesy' , I could start addressing you as Mini Minor, or Morris, but that would be childish of me ...and anyway, life's too short to be small. Have a nice day.

Hi MM, (1) Hail Creek : In 2017 the mine produced 9.4 million tonnes of saleable coal, made up of 5.25 million tonnes of hard coking coal and 4.13 million tonnes of thermal coal. (2) GLEN's primary interest is thermal coal . From the AR : ..."In 2017, we produced 120.6 million tonnes of saleable coal and marketed 106.3 million tonnes of thermal coal via our marketing business. About 85% of the coal we produce is exported, the majority of it to countries where coal continues to play a leading role in power generation given its reliability and affordability. The remainder of the coal we produce is used in domestic power generation in Australia and South Africa." GLEN's production of coking coal (6.1 mt) is - in relative terms - immaterial. 2 x 'immaterial' is still 'immaterial'. (3) Upsum : GLEN is acquiring an asset that (a) primarily helps replenish its core thermal reserves and (b) incidentally, has also picked up some coking reserves, that may or may not be relevant to (1) its view of the steel market and (2) specifically, its interest in ZIOC. (4) I agree your concluding remark that GLEN are behind Zanaga......but that has been the case for some time. It's certainly hard, from the facts above , to argue that GLEN is 'betting big on steel'. ATB

Hi all, "... Glencore PLC (GLEN.LN) said Tuesday that it has acquired Rio Tinto PLC's (RIO.LN) 82% interest in the Hail Creek coal mine and adjacent coal resources, as well as its 71.2% interest in the Valeria coal resource, for $1.7 billion. The mining company said the remaining 18% of Hail Creek is currently owned by Nippon Steel Australia Pty Ltd, Marubeni Coal Pty Ltd., and Sumisho Coal Development Pty Ltd. Each of these partners has the right to sell its share to Glencore, which could result in an additional consideration of $340 million. " On the one hand, GLEN has cut its warchest by up to USD 2.0 BN, on the OTHER hand, Rio has upped its warchest by USD 1.7 BN.... ATB

Hi malkis, lsenow seems to be showing 3 x 250 K , around 1530. ATB

Hi beardozer, You said to MM : ..."being patronising gets us nowhere. What proportion of your PF is invested in ZIOC? " I think you'll find MM and his 'camp followers' are quick to dish out and curiously slow to reply. Don't hold your breath for an answer. But you might wonder why that might be...or even 'join the dots' ..... ATB

Hi MM, ..."Kore Potash - going (sic) the dots ..." followed by a link to African Potash / BLCC. QED

Hi MM, ..."You claim that ZIOC is one of 20 investments you have on AIM, or 5%...." I don't 'claim', I stated. Do you 'claim' to have had breakfast or do you 'say' that you had breakfast? You're being a bit tendentious, if you ask me. I didn't state that my investments were on AIM; and I didn't state that ZIOC was 5% : I have 3 miners, that together represent about 5 % of my SIPP, not my total investments. If you're going to quote posts (and articles, for that matter ) , you might want to look at them a little more closely in future. If you did, you'd also see that I said - not claimed - I trade/deal infrequently , so have plenty of time to cogitate. This weekend more than most, because I was resting up before a half-marathon. I've come back a little pumped up, which may be obvious. I hope your research on ZIOC is a little more 'rounded' and thorough than on me. I post on advfn, on lse, on stockopedia , on lemonfool and on a couple of other (US) sites. If lse gets my attention because of ZIOC, a moment's thought (pace your comments to beardozer), on your part would / might ( ah, I think I see the problem) give you the answer : it's under the radar elsewhere and nobody else is interested. As the princess said, '"sometimes you have to kiss a lot of frogs before you find a prince". I leave you (the royal 'we' ?) to draw whatever conclusions you like. "Do I look like someone who gives a damn ?" Enjoy the rest of your weekend. ATB

Hi beardozer, Whilst awaiting any reply from MM, here's a thought or two : - if we're off the radar, we're in an inefficient market; - if we're in an inefficient market, the 'normal' risk/reward considerations don't come into play; - there's an asymmetry of risk (the unknown unknowns) and of reward; - if we can get an 'edge' on understanding the risk, we can - occasionally - get a disproportionate reward. - since it's easy to kid ourselves that we've got an 'edge' , something by definition difficult to achieve when there are those 'unknown unknowns' , it's usually safer to spread our bets. HTH and ATB