Member Info for extrader

Hi all,

It's still out of hours, so here's a quick tale of how 'humorous' geology can be :
There's a volcano in El Salvador, Centra lAmerica called Izalco - it was known as 'the lighthouse of the Pacific'.

It first erupted in 1770 and continued to erupt regularly thereafter, every 20 minutes, or so (hence the name).

In the late '50s the Salvador Tourism Ministry decided to spend a significant amount of its then budget ($ 7 m or so) on building a hotel/restaurant on the facing non-volcanic mountain, the USP being 'dine by volcano light' , with the house lighting dimmed to synchronize with the next eruption.

Pretty cool stuff, eh ?

Having blown regularly, every 20 minutes for about 180 years, the volcano stopped, shortly before hotel completion.in 1958.

Stuff happens - hopefully not here !

ATB....and very GLA

Hi WT,

After hours, so I guess OK

…"Will check with my GP to see if I have a "wax issue!?!" LOL"

In my case, the GP's diagnosis (after a test made at my (then) wife's request) was 'psychological deafness'. This after rather pointedly asking how long we'd been married....

ATB....and good luck ;-> !

Hi JoeBass,

…"how long is a piece of string ?..."

That all depends on where it's cut. And how much you (the buyer, in this case) think you need....

ATB

As we talk about how to spend our 'winnings'...

...from dspp over on lemonfool

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=796&p=150969&hilit=hur#p150969

Read, mark and inwardly digest !

ATB

Hi Longwait,

…"As I've said before, it needs to be a cash takeover....."

With shares in buyco or a loan note alternative please, so that those of us who don't have their HUR holdings ALL tax-sheltered can dispose of proceeds gradually and utilize available CGT allowances.....;->

ATB

Me again,

Seems a 'courageous' decision (copyright : Yes, Minister), by a company that has already been shafted by the Americans once (Macondo) for its environmental practices !

Mind you, if BP is prepared to put that much money into a geologically challenging play (jury still out re intrinsic economics, AIUI) in a risky political jurisdiction, just think about their risk appetite for WoS…….;->

ATB

'Alfie's' comments : " Hurricane Energy is basically a very large sitting duck with a smile on its face."

ATB

Hi all,

Ref recent posts on big oil's ability to spend, today's Times (behind paywall) carries the headline :

"BP is leading the race to acquire the American onshore shale assets of BHP Billiton after submitting an offer worth well in excess of $10 billion."

ATB

Hi all,

I've been following this thread / spat with some bemusement. It's the weekend, ffs, so here are 3 random thoughts to mull over whilst you're enjoying the sun, the footie, the barbie, the family or whatever :

(1) Success has many fathers, failure is an orphan;
(2) When you're in a hole, the first thing to do is to stop digging; and
(3) Better at times to be silent and thought a fool than to speak out and remove all possibility of doubt.

Roll on next week and the next RNS....

ATB

Hi all,

From The Economist :

.."Talking shop: China and Europe
Only seven months after their last annual meeting, the Chinese prime minister meets his counterparts from 16 Balkan, central and eastern European countries in Sofia again tomorrow. The “16+1” formula seeks to project Chinese investment, especially in infrastructure, into the region. EU officials hate it because it gives countries access to cash while skirting EU rules on transparency. It also gives China a channel to persuade the 16, especially friendly governments like Hungary’s, to bat for China on issues such as Tibet within the EU. Since its creation in 2012 China has invested much less in the 16 than hoped. One project aims to upgrade the railway from Greece, connecting the Chinese-owned port of Piraeus (pictured) to Budapest as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. For years, amid much fanfare, announcements have been made that work is just about to begin, but nothing much ever seems to get done...."

Interesting to see what emerges - compare and contrast ? Let's hope we're further along in the process/higher up the priority list.
ATB

Me again,

The 21 mile width of the straits is also a bit misleading : it's not like the English Channel, the waterway for large vessels is only about 3Km wide in each direction. The laden tankers go out on the southerly channel on the UAE/Oman side , but still...

ATB

Hi Fred_Bloggs,

I don't think things like mines and high-speed torpedoes (latter an Iranian speciality) are respecters of maritime boundaries / sea-lanes....;->

The extra costs /delays caused by need for escorts and higher insurance risk premia just add an unwelcome additional degree of uncertainty to the oil market. The sea-roads off Fujairah, the Emirate on the Gulf of Oman , used to be atwinkle at night the last time things got tense, with all the tankers waiting for their 'slot' to nip in , load up and scoot out.

This somewhat dated article (2012) talks about AbuDhabi's export pipeline via Fujairah and some of the strategic considerations behind it
http://www.arabianoilandgas.com/article-10748-analysis-on-the-uaes-habshan-fujairah-pipline

HTH and ATB

Hi all,

Please, no early takeout. Think : father bull to son bull....;->

ATB

Hi BellNippleBear,

…"in fact, all the big boys will want it [ all the IP for modeling FB when it is proven to work ]…."

Does HUR (ie 'we') own the IP, or is the 'secret sauce' (as he once described it) Dr T's...?

ATB

Hi all,

Crosspost from 'hiddendepths' on ADVFN on the strategic significance of the BP swap. Note too that BP reference the Clair field as a 'complex FRACTURED reservoir', which I think is a first for them...

…"This is an asset swap and can provide a rough handle on BP's assessment of its valuation of Clair. The deal seems to work strategically for both parties so I imagine that both believe they have a good deal; it doesn't appear that either party would be the prime mover.

BP are including their 38% of the Kuparuk pipeline, which adds more value to the Alaskan side of the transaction.

"The 39.2% interest in Greater Kuparuk Area had proved reserves associated with it of 190 million barrels of oil equivalent at the end of last year and produced 38,000 BOE a day, according to ConocoPhillips. The 16.5% interest in the Clair Field had 40 million BOE of proved reserves associated with it and produced about 3,000 BOE a day."

It is a bit of an eye opener to me that BP seem to equate the value of the share of Clair reserves of 40Mb with 190MB in Kuparuk and Clair's 3k b/d with Kuparuk's 38k b/d.

If these numbers are correct, and I haven't checked, it suggests to me that BP have totally bought into the fractured basement story and are assigning exceedingly high value to its West Of Shetlands acreage. I know that Clair has long been a large but problematic resource, which means it might be the field rather than the acreage where they see most value. But let's not forget that Clair is our Rona Ridge neighbour to the north. And its oil is not as good as Lancaster....

On the basis of this story alone, I am inclined to raise my target price for HUR by quite a way. I am convinced that BP plans to take out Hurricane once they have established that the concept works. But waiting ensures that they will have to pay a premium price. BP is rather risk-averse and it has long been their way to pay up when they're pretty sure of what they're buying into rather than pay a fraction of the price when they perceive a little more risk. (btw many years ago when working in Planning in BP, this approach drove me crazy as I saw opportunity after opportunity slip by.)…"

ATB

Hi all,

It seems a bit tacky, when we haven't even taken delivery of the AM yet, but I must admit I like the specs of this newbuild FPSO, intended for Exxon's Guyana operation :

.."The second Liza FPSO design is based on SBM Offshore's industry leading Fast4WardTM program as it incorporates the Company's new build, multi-purpose hull combined with several standardized topsides modules. The FPSO will be designed to produce 220,000 barrels of oil per day, will have associated gas treatment capacity of 400 million cubic feet per day and water injection capacity of 250,000 barrels per day. The FPSO will be spread moored in water depth of about 1,600 meters and will be able to store around 2 million barrels of crude oil...."

Maybe something like this would be appropriate , if we were to go down the Interim Field Development route....!.?

ATB

Hi gods,

…" ZIOP has publicly stated that 5 mining companies are applying pressure to CRBC and ROC to get the port finalised as well "....

Any ideas who the other 4 might be ? Apart from Sapro Mayoko (iron ore), there may be a potash co or two ? and there's a Chinese chemical ? company - Jurong - whose name appears on the port development plan as an interested party.

The names might give a sense of the pressure (esp. commercial ) the 5 can bring to bear....

Maybe AT shared this (nice to know, but not 'insider') info with MM.

ATB

Hi again HANK13,

My bad, in assuming that you were a 'newbie'.
I see that you've been a member since 2014 and have posted 3 x on PMO and 7 times on HUR, the latter all this month ….and all asking about share price predictions or similar.
You've had a number of replies, what conclusions have YOU reached...and WHY? Most people see bulletin boards as a useful means for exchanging info and views, the emphasis being as much on giving as on taking.

And you don't have to be an expert on anything ! A bit O/T but it IS the weekend : One useful snippet of the HUR jigsaw came to me from someone standing next to someone else at the urinal at the AGM......No names, no pack drill !

ATB

ATB

Hi HANK13,

If you go to the company website and presentations, you'll see what the plan is and the next steps.

If you go to https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=796&p=103338&hilit=hur#p103338
you'll see how one poster (dspp) shows how one MIGHT arrive at the numbers you've been given.

HTH and welcome to the board.
ATB

Hi gods,

Totally agree your comments, esp. …" it's really down to the port. It's not in our control. "

We have in ZIOC what in hydrocarbon terms would be a world-class 2C (=Contingent) asset, a mineral resource where ' there are currently no viable markets, or where commercial recovery is dependent on technology under development, or where evaluation of the accumulation is insufficient to clearly assess commerciality'. In ZIOC's case, essentially the / a port and rail link, to give value to our 'stranded assets.

Agian in oilspeak, the upgrade from 2C to 2P (=Proven) is what brings a step-change in valuation : it's not uncommon to see a 2C valuation of 10c per barrel of oil in the ground progress gradually to $1.00 per barrel as the prospect of 'commerciality' rises, through to $ 5.00 per bbl once the asset can be reclassified as 'proven'.

In this example, that's a best case 50x increase in asset 'worth', which helps (a) explain the 'puzzle' of why our s/p is where it is and ....(b) shows the change in valuation that ' a road to market' might bring.

ATB