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Hi G_G_G,

Elizabeth acknowledged within 30 mins and said she has forwarded as requested.

Apart from the various possibilities you've alluded to near the end, what message does it send to the market/CMEC as to NCCL/NGP's vulnerabilities and weak points as they get into some serious discussions about the future ?

If CMEC were ever minded to get into solar in Moz, NGP would likely be toast and could be picked up for buttons or as a 'sweetener' in any wrap-up with NCCL re mine/power project.

I'm sure that 'Scott didn't get where he is today...etc' but if there IS a rationale to this, at least some of it needs to be disclosed.

IMO

I've sent this to Elizabeth Johnson at Pimlico Advisory :

.."I'd be grateful if you could pass on to each of the Chairman, Hanno and Scott Fletcher my confusion at this RNS.
I'm using your good offices since emails and chasers to the office in Mozambique go unreplied.

(1) As I understand it, the Lenders get 30% coupon on the $500k at the earlier of 6 months or commissioning of project and the right to convert the Bridge Loan into equity of NGP with a coupon of 50% should NGP default.

These rates appear high, on the face of it, but may be justifiable in context.

The problem is that I don't believe we as shareholders have 'the context' :

If NGP defaults the Lenders get $750k of equity in NGP. But what is NGP and how is it currently structured? What is NGP worth, how much cash does it have to hand, and how much do NCCL shareholders currently own?

Is NGP re-paying the $500k or is NCCL re-paying the $500k?
I ask because - with contract revenues of USD 3.1million over 15 year Project life = approx USD 200K pa, it's not evident to me that NGP will itself have the cashflow to repay ie it seems to be setting itself up to fail ?

And if it's NCCL that'll end up re-paying then it's hardly 'non-dilutive', as NCCL shareholders are effectively paying $150k for the directors to put up $500k [ into a partially ?owned subsidiary] for a max 6 month loan.

(2) At a strategic level, what is the potential impact on NGP , if any , of our partner CMEC getting involved in solar ? See
https://www.pv-magazine.com/press-releases/cmec-and-catl-kstar-signed-a-strategic-cooperation-agreement/; and
https://renewablesnow.com/news/cmec-to-build-2-gw-solar-park-in-abu-dhabi-726427/

(3) I'd further like you to convey to the Lenders/Directors that shareholders are overdue news from NCCL on fronts other than NGP :

I 'get' that tariff decision is with EDM, but news on any progress would be welcome - we were told to expect feedback 'early in the new year'.

It would be good to hear of the progress being made on the accelerated development work being carried out on the project as a result of the approved budget of UD$1.8 funded by CMEC which was announced on 16 November 2020.

What is progress made thus far on the additional survey drilling ? As Hanno mentioned at the time ‘’Consultants have been instructed and work has commenced. We look forward to providing further updates in due course."
Who are the consultants and is the purpose of the drilling to do with (a) the quality of the coal or (b) in connection with building work on the proposed construction site ?

What is the status of EPC and O & M agreements (which AIUI are not EDM input-dependent) ? What if any, is the role of GE in the Project, going forward ?

There are a number of 'deliverables' or helpful information within the Company's 'gift' and COULD be provided.

I hope some of this will be forthcoming. "

ATB

.."Fixed 30% coupon payable at the earlier of 6 months or commissioning of the Project .."
and
.."Target Project commissioning in June 2021 .."
and
.."Bridge Loan is subject to finalisation and execution of full form loan agreements, targeted for completion in March 2021.."

Is this a misprint ?

At longstop 6 months, the interest payable is 30% ie 60% annualised ?

If loan docs are completed end March and Project is commissioned end June (may be ambitious) = 3 to 4 months, the interest payable is 90-120% annualised ?

What am I missing / have I misunderstood ?

TIA

You have to be pretty unhappy with life to consider a factual post and a post with a joke as ‘making things disorderly “....on a board with nigh on 100 posts at the weekend dedicated to fruitless speculation on ‘known unknowns’.

IMO

Hi all,

Worth a 5 minute gander to be refreshed/reminded of the relationship between the two
https://www.glencore.com/dam/jcr:391af167-1f14-4ac1-a710-9a6b59a5929f/201102080731.en.pdf

ATB

Hi WolfofWarks,

Apropos of AZ's love life , the forthcoming budget and Friday's skewering of Sturgeon by Alex Salmond, this seems curiously 'timeous' (a new Scots word to me, means 'timely' ) :

..""Geoffrey Howe's '81 Budget was famously tough and in retrospect right. At the time, 364 economists wrote a letter to the press saying it couldn't possibly work. Geoffrey retorted in a speech at the Mansion House where he said: 'An economist is someone who knows 364 ways of making love but he doesn't know any women'."

Let's hope AZ can get the concept to bed.

Hi Trader _3,

Thanks for this !

'Hearts and minds' at work in Asia as well : (a) use ethnic Chinese Chris Chiu for credibility and general 'halo effect' and (b) include a Q + A on bio-ethics where Chris can lay to rest some of the fears/misconceptions.

Helps pre-empt any negative perception there might be from China being seen to have to collaborate with the West....

Contract(s) incoming, IMO ...

;->
ATB

Hi all,

Just looking around - in the absence of any news from Hanno, despite follow-up - to see if Scott might be a little more investor-helpful.
He appears to have (been ?) disappeared from twitter and his facebook account is stale (2011-12). That's about the extent of my social media skills ...
Any ideas ? Emailing his company on a private investment doesn't seem appropriate.

TIA and ATB

Hi ShrewdDude67,

Totally agree that the current high price is 'interesting but irrelevant', because ZIOC/ZANAGA is not in a position to take advantage of it....but it does provide an indication of the sort of gross margins available, which provide a 'commercial/business case' underpinning to new investment.

Meanwhile, the second of 99icecream's links suggests that the fear that we are currently at/near a cyclical 'high' is exaggerated : rather supportive, in fact of the recent JP Morgan claim that commodities may be at the start of a 20 year 'super-cycle', with strong long-term demand underpinnings.

And the 'Brucie bonus' is that the demand mentioned in the article isn't coming from any random commercial quarter, answerable [maybe] to its shareholders if it makes a wrong call , but from 'a blueprint jointly released on Wednesday by the Central Committee of the ruling Communist Party and the State Council, the country’s cabinet..."

So there'll now be a lot of extra political interest in 'delivering' on the Party's vision.

And we end up singing from the same hymn-sheet : "Just ask yourself, if not now, when ?"
;->
ATB

Hi FatherTed,

It's a small world....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Whitty

..." Chris Whitty, until becoming the UK's Chief Medical Officer, was Professor of Public and International Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) where he was also Director of the Malaria Centre.

He worked as a physician and researcher into infectious diseases in the UK, Africa and Asia.

In 2008, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation awarded the LSHTM £31 million for malaria research in Africa.
At the time, Whitty was the principal investigator for the ACT Consortium, which conducted the research programme..."

Enjoy the rugby !
ATB

PS Codagenix Covi-Vac's other hoped -for USP is 5-7 year immunity....it's a so-called second-generation treatment.....which might explain the rush to get it through trials !

Hi snapper,

The Covi-Vac is nasal.....and Russian....but ORPH is doing the CHIM for it at the new Whitechapel Centre....because it's being done by Codagenix...see p8 of the latest presentation.

So we're both part wrong ......and both part right..... and isn't it curious /interesting that American Codagenix is helping on a Russian vaccine...?

And - although only Ph.1 , - that Codagenix thinks it's sufficiently worth fast-tracking for them to queue -jump and pay for Whitechapel ?

ATB

Hi all,

Can't recall an overdue this long. Part of a msge I sent this am to AT :

" Thought you might be interested in this for the upcoming report...;->

Iron ore enters an age of change | Fastmarkets

I appreciate that you may be limited in what ZIOC can say atm, but with the COIDIC agreement now over a year old and 5 months since the last update re (a) strategic investor approach(es) and (b) COIDIC engagement with various Chinese entities, some sign of life would be welcome !

Maybe even a tweet or two ?
Enjoy the weekend ! "

HTH

Vaxart 's sex appeal is oral delivery....but CoviVac's is nasal spray (like CHIM delivery) isn't it ?

AIUI

Hi FatherTed,

.."And gaining ethical approval for a Covid study might well make future approvals easier to grant too?.."

Rahm Emanuel, borrowing from Churchill : ""You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before."

Martin and Meta (Matt less so) at the 1Day Sooner event both made comments to the effect that CHIM UK would give a 'road map going forward' and that, 'whilst we can't - and shouldn't - do things at 'warp speed', the UK will provide a benchmark/pathway'.

So, yes, absolutely .

ATB

Hi allthatguff,

Good find - fits in nicely with GLEN's new ESG building goals !
If the re's a 'hearts and minds' campaign needed to get some of the 'dinosaurs' onside, this could be a bit of 'subliminal advertising'.

ATB

Hi Micky1,

.."1Af2 (Ceresio sim) 35.08% (12.82% plus 17.99% loan shares).."

I think not.
(1) Per the 29 July RNS, 1AF2 itself says it only has 5.92%. It has subsequently agreed to a cash alternative for the 17.99% pledged shares, so it's not safe to include these in your calculation.

And where do you think these shares are currently parked on the register ? Do you see any likely holder/frontco ?

(2) Re Ceresio SIM "12.82%" : Ceresio SIM sold out to Orchestra on 18 August , and Orchestra has since folded into TAG, so you're double counting its 4.98 %.
12.82 - 4.98% = 7.84 %, 1AF2 declared 5.92% per RNS, so where does your extra 1.92 % come from ?

It comes from the call option that LAPSED at the end of the year.

So that's wrong as well.

Upsum : From the earlier post the 6.99% should be excluded.
From this post a further 17.99% should be excluded; so should the 4.98%; so should the 1.92%[ total 24.89%]

That's a total of 31.88% [out of TAG's 68.05% ] that is NOT TAG's.

HTH

Hi Micky1,

.."AZ has 6.99% separately."

I think not, see the 29 Dec RNS :

29 December 2020
Supply@Me Capital plc
("Supply@Me") or (the "Company")
PDMR/PCA Shareholding

Supply@Me has been notified by Mr Alessandro Zamboni, its Chief Executive Officer, that Orchestra Group:

-- has DISPOSED of 2,290,000,000 [ 6.99%] ordinary shares of 0.002p each in the capital of the Company at 0.48 pence per SYME share...

Do you agree ?

and - as a sign of how 'creative' these mutation blighters can be :

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/study-highlights-risk-of-new-sars-cov-2-mutations-emerging-during-chronic-infection

.."SARS-CoV-2 mutations similar to those in the B1.1.7 UK variant could arise in cases of chronic infection, where treatment over an extended period can provide the virus multiple opportunities to evolve, say scientists..."

The hospital patient as Petri dish....;-<

ATB

Hi all,

A great, very accessible read about the background to the UK's leading position in Covid-19 genomics - how it came about, where we are now,and 'the way forward' :

https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/discussion/qa-with-sharon-pea****-coronavirus-variant-hunter

.."Q: How important is what Cog-UK does to the vaccine effort?

Sequencing is absolutely integral to vaccine development. We are going to need to have sequence data.

We’re going to need to keep sequencing for the foreseeable future so that we can adapt our vaccines to keep them effective. It’s going to be a long-term job to run the two in parallel. Vaccine manufacturers are already working to tweak their vaccines for the South Africa variant, for example, to make sure it’s going to be effective against that variant.

There are going to be new variants arising in the future and we’re going to have to adapt our response to these as we go along. Sequencing and vaccine development are key partners. I suspect that this is going to be ongoing throughout my life and beyond. Of concern is that we don’t have global coverage, so we are not sighted globally in terms of new variants.

Q: So it’s going to be like the flu vaccine every year, depending on how long immunity lasts?

Yes, quite similar, but it might be a bit less predictable than a single vaccine booster each year. SARS-CoV-2 could ratchet up its characteristics over time, and the diversity of mutation combinations in different variants could change over time. So it could be more complex than flu.

We’ve also known that immunity wanes over time. So we’re going to have to be thinking about long-term strategies with this virus...."

ATB