Member Info for extrader

.."they are already talking to very connected people .."

That gets you through the door, which I recognise can be a big obstacle.
But , once through the door, the concept still has to be shown to work.

And 'connected' people tend not to have too much spare time/patience.

Only refers to SHORT positions, which if true is good news.

.."why don't these people ask how many shares did the owners of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and the like award themselves when they floated their company..."

When the Concert Party floated /RTO'd SYME, they floated 1% of the Company (publicly). The Concert Party had virtually all the rest, TAG had 92 %.
'New TAG' (AZ as 'beneficial owner') is down to 38.9%.
In SYME's, most of the shares have been 'awarded' to 3rd parties, mostly PI's.

IMO

.."My favourite investment quote: I always sold too soon! So glib, so very wrong!.."

You're talking to the guy who had 100,000 ASOS at an average of 5.4p......
They peaked around 7,560p, for a 1,400X....if I'd held.
I let the tax tail wag the investment dog (withdrawal of taper relief on AIM shares, if you remember that) and topsliced regularly into the rise...
Made about 32 X (so my best ever gain) - which paid for kids' Uni and a motorhome, but still.....

Having done it once with an 'A' , maybe it's time again with a 'Z' ?

ATB

Hi beardozer,

O/T

You had a 'recovery marquee' ? Ooooh ...errr , look at you ;->

We stood out in the street for 50 mins (in my case), fortunately not raining, but pretty cold; 6-8 mins for the process + jab; and straight out into the street again.....

If I'm not posting Monday, you'll know why !

Incoming CEO Stausholm (prev 2 years as FD, before that stints at AP MollerMaersk and RDSB, ie a'generalist') in today's FT, re issue facing RTZ whether to develop its share of Simandou, a decision which' will shape the future of Rio's most profitable business unit and also the global iron ore market".

.." Whiles Stausholm thinks iron ore has a 'tremendous future' , he also wants Rio to be more proactive and 'grab' opportunities in other metals and minerals created by the energy transition".

This sounds to me like a re-iteration of his predecessor's ' strategic indecision' stance on Simandou, which if it continues will slow progress on Simandou rollout.

Which would postpone the 'day of reckoning' for Australian producers (including RTZ itself)....but perhaps encourage the Chinese to look more closely at the Zanaga option....

IMO

Hi Demon_G,

Apols to others for the somewhat O/T, but it is the weekend.
..". Personally I think the BTC juggernaut will end in tears.."

Roubini doesn't 'get' bitcoin either, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IH9BHV6ywM&feature=emb_title

ATB

.."Recently, Beijing’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy has become more threatening— but its trade disputes have followed a similar pattern. Australia has been in the doghouse since 2017-18, when it enacted foreign-interference legislation China’s sanctions on Australia have raised hackles in other English-speaking nations
China has had a lot of practice in using trade sanctions as a coercive diplomatic weapon
targeted at China and blocked Huawei from its 5G network. Relations sunk even lower in April last year, when Canberra called for an independent international investigation into the origins of the Covid pandemic. Beijing
retaliated by slapping tariffs on Australian barley. Yet Australia’s overall exports continued to surge: by the end of June 2020, it was sending an astonishing 49% of its exports to China—a record high.
The latest sanctions are on coal shipments. More than 80 ships carrying an estimated US$800mn of coal were stranded off China’s coast, unable to unload. China’s aim is to show that Australia needs it more than it needs Australia. The reality is more complex. Australia supplies, on average, 40% of the coking coal used in China’s steel mills. That topped 60% in the first half of 2020, as the pandemic interrupted other supplies. China can find alternatives for a few months, but it will turn back to Australia as its mills run short. China’s trade dominance means it can generally deal with trade disruptions
more easily than its trade partners. It accounts for a large share of their trade, whereas each partner accounts for only a sliver of China’s.
Australia, with a share of about 2%, does not even make China’s top 10 trade partners. This means Beijing can afford to throw around its economic weight.

But that logic does not apply to strategic goods that China needs, such as iron ore. Australia supplies about 70% of China’s iron ore imports, shipping almost 800mn tons to China last year. Given that the total seaborne market in the rest of the
world is only 460mn tons, Australia has nowhere else to send it—yet China also has nowhere else to buy it."

For now.

Hi 99icecream,

I agree. A 'grown-up' solution would be to have an escrow account arrangement that controlled inflows and outflows, including debt service or C-B's dividends from its free carry investments being applied to debt service.

But that control/transparency probably doesn't give Nguesso et al the opportunities to plunder....;-<

Hi 99icecream,

The Congolese are probably concerned about sovereignty issues , see https://www.csis.org/analysis/game-loans-how-china-bought-hambantota#:~:text=Hambantota%E2%80%99s%20port%20did%20not%20appear%20overnight,%20but%20resulted,Lanka%E2%80%99s%20official%20development%20plans%20since%20at%20least%202002.

COIDIC wanted the 'developer' (not itself) to be the owner, a mixed capital company constituted under Congolese law, C-B wanted ownership to remain with the State.

HTH

The article says' so COIDIC has disengaged from the project. Is this definitive ? Hard to say.."

.."However, start ups will always come around, they will always need funding, they will also be a little naïve to decisions the big boys make, this is where SYME bread and butter needs to be..."

The circle that SYME would then have to square is its recently-stated announcement of its intention to move to 'bigger ticket' relationships on the one hand and the inherent lower credit -worthiness , naivety and ticket size of the market that you see as their niche.
it'll tend to be the bigger companies that have the more sophisticated inventory management systems that SYME's model hope to plug into/piggy-back off, AIUI.

Hi 99icecream,

Thanks for the nuanced interpretation of COIDIC's position, which I may have missed ! If they can avoid the hassle/politics /'friction'of the 'main' SEZ and just get a little patch re-designated , that would work for us/Yantai/KP2 etc .

I've sent the article off to AT, together with the 'snippets', let's see what/if anything comes back.

ATB

Taulia is INVOICE financing, as the link makes clear.
More than 'slightly different'

Hi Citizenlane,

Publicity is always welcome ! If you follow the board , you'll see that I queried the prominence given to hVivo , saying that ORPH should be in the headlines.

We've already got the 'professional/technical' endorsement that counts in the industry : from the MHRA, Ethics committee, etc., as announced/paid for by HMG.

I think that getting dragged into politics is usually 'bad for business' and introduces an extra 'known unknown' into the mix.
" If you lie down with dogs, expect to get fleas "

Hope this clarifies !
ATB

Hi all,
Hat-tip to GTA5 elsewhere for this : Https://www.makanisi.org/congo-la-zes-de-pointe-noire-recherche-developpeur-et-investisseurs/

Potted history + bullet points (verbatim, they may not be accurate):

- 4 x SEZ (Pointe Noire, Ignie, Oyo-Ollombo and Ouesso) announced 6/2017;
- 4 x advisors (EGIS France; Quantic Lebanon; Bain + Co US; and Jurong/Surbana S'pore at Pointe-Noire);
- China sees PN as bridgehead to 'central/francophone' Africa, sets up a JV bank BSCA in 2016, by Nov 2020 it has 12% of country's bank deposits;
- agreement between COIDIC, BSCA and local QANGO (APPD) to provide finance for co's in SEZ;
- APPD has no resources, so outsources to a 'developer' to set up a Public Private Partnership (PPP);
- legislation for PPP is still - 4 years later - 'being finalised';
- COIDIC (described as right arm of China Govt) starts land expropriation 16Km2 in 2019, demolition of bldgs starts 2020;
- COIDIC is supposed to set up Co giving exclusive rights to SEZ;
- COIDIC wants to own the land;
- C-B disagrees, mtg in Djibouti Dec 2019 doesn't resolve; mtg planned for Feb 2020 cancelled because of Covid;
- COIDIC withdraws;
- new co Peking Fortune DingHeng Inv Co wants to build a refinery in the new SEZ north of PN, this clashes with the SNPC refinery already there;
- Aug 2020, new co proposes a 2.4 Km2 plot elsewhere, the 'PN SEZ' is fragmented, this 2.4Km 2(zone B) and 27.9Km2 north of PN (zone A), this is pos'n as at Jan 2021;
- no partners for SEZ currently identified;
- end Feb C-B will invite bids from 'developers';
- meanwhile, in zone A, another co with W/African connections wants to set up an alu smelter for Guinea bauxite. This must be Yantai;
- C-B is negotiating with ENI a subsidized gas tariff for a related power station, Belgian, Italian and Turkish contractors have been approached;
- if nothing develops, C-B's 'cunning plan' is to host a World Bank-funded forum in June or July 2021, to progress matters.

Upsum : this doesn't square with our (well, my) understanding of the COIDIC position, I'll ask AT; it does support the Yantai involvement and a possible '2-countries one system ' approach , China Inc exploiting C-B/Guinea synergies...and a role for Zanaga as alternate to Simandou ?
C-B seems to continue shooting itself in the foot, I'm surprised it's got any toes left;
Maybe Nguesso et al are waiting to get the elections behind them.

IMO, NAI, DYOR, E&OE

ATB

Hi atg,

This BoJo 'boosterism' is a bit of a mixed blessing, IMO.
I get that he's playing to the gallery - and Cathal is playing along with his 'great day for UK Inc' - but if there's a political spat somewhere down the road (on co-operation with other countries, say) , you can bet BoJo will do a reverse ferret, leaving ORPH and others to pick up the pieces.

HMG doesn't have a 'golden share' in ORPH, what happens if - after all this 'British success story' -a US biotech or pharma makes an approach ? Will HMG interfere 'in the national interest' ? If the approach came from China, in the present circs I think it would. But the US ? ORPH could become just a bargaining chip in some bigger political game .Has it [even] already quietly 'warned people off' ?

To paraphrase Henry Kissinger ' I may be paranoid, that doesn't mean that I haven't got real enemies'.

And , whilst he's mildly entertaining, I think BoJo will do whatever seems good for BoJo at the time.

IMO

Hi Kongolasse,

To be fair to Ivan (not that he's likely to return the favour), (a) it's easy to say that with hindsight and (b) he's fundamentally a 'dealer/trader' (his nickname) not a 'digger' like Mick Davis, so probably not temperamentally suited to the long slow grind of setting up long-term projects anywhere, never mind in 'difficult' countries.

GLEN is walking away from coal in Colombia and copper in Zambia as we speak, in both cases AIUI because of unco-operative or overly 'demanding' host governments.

IMO

Hi STOK,

From context, I think that comment was the writer's , not Ivan's....and likely mainly Oz - specific, though Brazil (if it gets over its supply issues) would still face relative transportation cost headwinds.

Thing is, I don't think Simandou by itself would replace all Oz production (but maybe a lot of the 'premium' end ?), and it would be foolish for China to replace one dependency risk with another.

On the principle of 'the heir and the spare' , I think Ivan is indirectly making the case for Zanaga.

It takes a while to turn a tanker...and he can hardly do a 'reverse ferret'.

All IMO, at any rate.

Did the 'recent exchanges' you mentioned a few days back include any hint of a change in 'mood music' at GLEN HQ, by chance ?

ATB

Thanks for this find !
No ORPH participation, as far as I could see : 'Hamlet without the prince ' ?
Will still try to listen in.

FWLIW, I'm in chrishutch and G_G_G's camp, so nothing to add atm.

Other than to sympathize with chris when he writes .." today I am trying to keep my mind a bit busy as I have a colonoscopy in the morning, which I don't want to think about..."

I haven't had this procedure, but accompanied my nervous partner. We were in Europe at the time so she google-translated lots of info.

She took childish delight in discovering that Mr Google translated /substituted 'colonoscopy ' with 'kaleidoscope'...

Cheered her up....and hope it does you too !

ATB