Member Info for extrader

Nearly clashes with the hVivo/CHIM seminar starting at 14: 00 on the same day !

It would be only human for someone returning to his alma mater to want to let everyone see that ' the boy done good '.

Money isn't the only motivator ;->

Hi G_G_G,

.."If RoC give up the land for the port, everything else will fall into place. If a starting pistol is to be fired, this will be it for me..."

Totally agree ! The port makes PN a regional hub and offers other mid-Atlantic 'reach'.
And the Chinese know from the HongKong experience what a strategic bit of 'real estate' can lead to. Particularly if it's got 'semi-autonomous' status.

I don't know how nationalistic the Congolese are about anything other than football.
It would be nice to think that Nguesso is 'signature- ready' and just waiting to get the elections out of the way.

;->

Hi wallyj,

Thanks for this ! A couple of nuances :

- re approaches to Invesco, he said there were o'seas investors interested in 5/6/7% @ 30p....
- the volunteer fee seems to have gone up from £ 4.5 to £ 6.0k...
- hVivo and Venn will need court orders to OK distributable reserves, that'll be an early warning that something's afoot...
- there are several Covid-19 trials in the pipeline, the contracts are @ £ 10m....
- data contracts are typically £ 0.5 > 1.5M, doesn't want to say more ...
- for hVivo contracts no constraints on disclosure , 'we're the leaders'...
- CHIMs location? Prefer UK , we'll help o'seas 'but a lot of money'....

All AIUI,
HTH

Hi all,

https://chinaeconomicreview.com/china-turns-its-back-on-bangladesh-bri...

.."China turns its back on Bangladesh BRI coal projects

China has told Bangladesh it will not fund coal mines and polluting power plants, as Beijing took the first tentative steps towards fulfilling its promises of sustainable Belt and Road investment, reported the Financial Times.

In a letter seen by the Financial Times, China’s embassy to Bangladesh informed the local Ministry of Finance that “the Chinese side shall no longer consider projects with high pollution and high energy consumption, such as coal mining [and] coal-fired power stations”.

The letter, which was sent last month during negotiations over $3.6 billion in infrastructure loans agreed in 2016 that Dhaka now wishes to repurpose, was a rare signal of Beijing’s hesitancy to fund polluting coal projects as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, said the FT.

It marked “the first indication I’ve seen of [China’s promises of a green BRI] translating into action on the ground”, said Simon Nicholas, an Australia-based analyst for the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis..."

Said to be 'unusual' and follows a Bangla request to 're-purpose', so may be no read-across to Moz/Ncondezi.

Was NCCL ever touted as 'part of BRI ?' . Of course, we don't know how the Chinese consider it for internal purposes.

ATB

I hope this isn't the canary in the (cough) coal mine...

https://chinaeconomicreview.com/china-turns-its-back-on-bangladesh-bri-coal-projects/

.."China turns its back on Bangladesh BRI coal projects

China has told Bangladesh it will not fund coal mines and polluting power plants, as Beijing took the first tentative steps towards fulfilling its promises of sustainable Belt and Road investment, reported the Financial Times.

In a letter seen by the Financial Times, China’s embassy to Bangladesh informed the local Ministry of Finance that “the Chinese side shall no longer consider projects with high pollution and high energy consumption, such as coal mining [and] coal-fired power stations”.

The letter, which was sent last month during negotiations over $3.6 billion in infrastructure loans agreed in 2016 that Dhaka now wishes to repurpose, was a rare signal of Beijing’s hesitancy to fund polluting coal projects as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, said the FT.

It marked “the first indication I’ve seen of [China’s promises of a green BRI] translating into action on the ground”, said Simon Nicholas, an Australia-based analyst for the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis...."

I don't think Ncondezi was specifically described as BRI, but may of course be considered as such for internal Chinese purposes.

Views welcome !

AFAIAA, the three affected are :

- Avima (Avima, Core), spend unknown, NW Congo, future railway through Cameroon, claim $ 27 Billion in damages
- Equatorial Resources (Badondo), AUD 100m spent, NW Congo, future railway through Gabon, claim $ 11 Billion in damages
- Sundance Resources (Nabeba Mbalam), AUD 400m spent, NW Congo, future railway through Cameroon, claims $ 8.76 Billion in damages

All 3 are Australian, all 3 are in the extreme NW of C-B (hence export routes), all 3 licences supposedly given to a Chinese company Sangha Mining Development Sasu.

From a quick look, all 3 appear to be well behind Zanaga in terms of investment and paperwork eg environmental OKs etc.

HTH

The fact that Friedland had taken MIGA cover for Nimba was highlighted in the link I sent AT.
He's a smart cookie ...and is probably already aware...and if he wasn't, he is now !

I haven't checked whether MIGA is 'on cover' for C-B at the moment (or what premia might be). From a credit risk perspective, I doubt whether there's much difference to Guinea......;-<

Where guarantees might usefully come in is if potential investors are concerned about C-B risk.

I was interested to see that Friedland mentioned that he had MIGA (Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency) cover for his recently announced investment in the Nimba mine in Guinea , I hadn't heard of its use in a while.

https://www.miga.org/history

MIGA (part of the World Bank group) .."offers insurance to cover five types of non-commercial risks: currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction; government expropriation; war, terrorism, and civil disturbance; breaches of contract; and the non-honoring of financial obligations. MIGA will cover investments such as equity, loans, shareholder loans, and shareholder loan guarantees. The agency may also insure investments such as management contracts, asset securitization, bonds, leasing activities, franchise agreements, and license agreements. The agency generally offers insurance coverage lasting up to 15 years with a possible five-year extension depending on a given project's nature and circumstances..".

HTH

From the Q and A :

Q1 : acknowledges Greensill effect - potential funders need more convincing, not content to rely on ins policy

Q3 : doesn't agree Partner contact

Q4 : USA arranging pilot and developing a 'transit' version

Q6 : Target customer size now back down - Euro 150M > 45-50M ?

Q9 : Big investors who want to self-fund their clients ? 'Avoid' : Greensill effect, 'Regulations'

Q12 : Details of major shareholders ? Go to Registrar and look for yourself

Q13 : Do the CCs know IF identity and have a timetable for completion ? No

Q14 : Status of Captive Bank ? ..positive outcome in coming months..'

Q19 : ID of Islamic Funder ? ..NDA until platform complete...Shari'ah Board OK important step..'

Q21 : SYME Capital plc employee numbers ? "Group" employs 15...

Q22 : Results of SH securitisation ? Expected in interim 2021 figs [Aug/Sept 2021 ?]

Q26 : Updated client list/profit forecast ? See the LAST financials...(!!)

Q30 : ABAL RTO clarification. AZ states that 12/20 accounts will be published next month, in April.

Conclusion : Remarkably little 'hard' info, more fudging on delivery, unhelpful re major shareholdings, partner endorsement and revenue forecasts.

On the + side, shareholders should get some hard info in the 12/20 results next month...and presumably there'll be an AGM to look forward to in the summer....

IMO

Hi all,

CF may wish to consider reputational risk cf Chris Potts

https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/final-notices/evolution_12nov04.pdf

A long time ago, but still...quite an achievement to short 250% of a company's stock.....

ATB

Exactly my point : if Imutex is potentially the key to a 'universal' multi-year flu vaccine AND the/an answer to malaria, its potential value is surely MANY multiples of ORPH's current MCap....

Should have expressed the thought more clearly.

Agree the Shareholder loan int payment compared to outlay re NGP shows how peripheral the latter is.

As to Shareholder Loan status , is this not partially addressed in the 3 Nov RNS ?

TBH, I'm more irritated at the lack of clarity re EPC and O&M contracts :

- on 29 Sept we were told that ...the tariff proposal submitted to EDM " would not have been possible without the support from our Partners CMEC and GE Steam Power ("GE"), who provided detailed Engineering, Procurement and Construction ("EPC") and Operations and Maintenance ("O&M") proposals for the construction and operation of the Project. "
The 'tariff proposal' referenced appears to be the version submitted to EDM in March 2020...OK, may need some reworking to reflect GE status, but still...

- the same RNS goes on to say ;..."Our focus is to agree the historical costs to be reimbursed to Ncondezi at FC and sign the EPC agreements before the end of 2020. ..."

There's been some progress on historic costs (though not a 'done deal'), but seemingly not a peep re EPC status (much less signature), which would be far more meaningful evidence of CMEC commitment ...and that any GE-related reworking had not thrown up any issues.

Any views ?

TIA

Hi Trader_3,

Thanks for this ! Interesting to note - here again - Kremsner's reference to malaria....which seems to be the focus of much 'long term' clinical research that has been temporarily distracted by coronavirus.

Malaria was a big feature of the recent Gates/WHO GVIRF jamboree, where Schutten ('our' CHIMAgents) spoke; Chiu is leading an upcoming LMIC study in VietNam on dengue (another mosquito-related application , as is zika); and of course Whitty headed up a research project that got a $ 40 m grant for .....malaria.

Attention has rightly been on Imutex's Flu-v Ph3 ready universal vaccine, but its Ph1 ready universal mosquito saliva vaccine , which has a novel approach, may also have a lot of 'hidden value' :

.."It is designed to provoke an immune response against mosquito saliva, rather than any specific parasites, viruses, or bacteria the mosquito might transmit making it an important tool in the fight against mosquito-borne diseases..."

All grist to the mill !
ATB

I don't either, that's why I used quotation marks : 'team'.
Lots here see this in terms of 'us' and 'them', whereas (I think) they should be thinking in terms of 'shareholders' vs 'management'.
For most 'management' , shareholders are a 'necessary evil' and only incidentally - if at all - do they have your interests at heart, IMO
This includes AZ.

Victory1 : Which 'team' are you playing for ?
You do realize that the TW link you provided shows him to have been right about Woodward ?

;->

Hi Longlad,

The comment on the other board was about SF, who has fingers in a number of pies, so likely a coincidence.
Maybe (joke !) he's an 'influencer' grabbing some winter sun and an (early) jab....
Hanno and AT go back a long way , from something I read somewhere, but may no longer be 'besties' , again, from something I read or heard a while back.
DXB displaced Beirut decades ago as a convenient meeting hub for business-folk coming from 'distant parts', with all the logistical benefits and facilities/services of an 'entrepot' /deal-making environment.

HTH

.."Looks like you won't get to be judge, jury and executioner after all ex.."

No ambition to be any of the above, actually.
If you read any of my posts.

I'm on record as saying I hope the concept works, I don't think SYME / AZ will manage it.

Let's see what the trading update says - Achilles heel is (and has been) the funding :

.."Show me the money.."

HTH

.." no faith in AZ being the man to pull this off, .."

The jury is still out, that's the reality whether you like it or not.

"Show me the money".

HTH

Good to see SYME back, otherwise the conspiracy theorists will have a field day.

AZ has some ground to make up, interesting to see what progress he's made on securing funding against an 'unhelpful' background during suspension.

Hi Mitch984,

Not a peep. Since the lack of engagement is a change from my (and seemingly others') past experience, there seems little point in 'badgering', esp. as they'll have to say something at some point :

- ZIOC either wants to be in good standing or it doesn't ( and either way there's read-across for Elphick at GEMD);
- if it doesn't , then we're stuffed anyway ( Rule 1 : don't panic; Rule 2 : if you must panic, do so before everyone else);
- if it does want to be in good standing, it'll have to tell us if there's anything bad on the way;
- if there's anything good on the way, it may not be able to say anything about it;
- either way, at some point it'll hit a regulatory requirement to update the market.

Then my favourite line from 'Bridge of spies' kicks in :
Q : 'Are you worried (in Fuchs' case , that you might be executed) ?'
A : 'Would it make a difference ?'

I'm sure people can pick holes in this line of reasoning, but it works for me.

HT