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(1) The iron ore market collapsed almost immediately post-IPO and has only recently emerged from the doldrums;
(2) GLEN is the majority partner and its stake in Zanaga came as an incidental when it took over Xstrata (who was the 'money' to ZIOC's 'promoters');
(3) The long-time CEO of GLEN has/had a longstanding aversion to greenfield projects....and other, possibly competing interests as an iron ore TRADER and as a pre-export oil financier to Congo-Brazzaville.

I'm sure you're aware of all this, the question is : what would you do differently ? I believe that ZIOC have been quite sincere in their efforts to 'reframe the dynamic', but you can't really push on a string....

Part of the dynamic is indeed that time is getting on and the actors/obstacles have changed/are changing. If the constellations align, there'll be a deal of some kind, if they don't , there won't....

AIUI

.." If that's an indication of their deal making skills we are goosed.."

Surely it's an indication of what deal is available to be done, not 'made' ? ZIOC has always been a 'deal-taker', not a 'deal-maker'.
The 'causes and conditions' have to be right. And you can only play - more OR less skilfully - the hand you're dealt.

AIUI

.." Recent surveys and focus groups in the UK show strong support for a human challenge study..."

Unfortunately, even though this may be the case - which I agree anecdotally, as a participant in one of the Imperial focus groups - public enthusiasm and support doesn't seem to have moved a still very 'conservative' establishment. Whether medical or political I'm not clear....

There does appear to be a substantial body of resistance to 'boundary-pushing' innovation in the medical field : the public is way ahead of the system in support for other things, like use of medical marijuana for epilepsy in children and psilocybin for treatment of depression and addictions eg alcohol and tobacco.

As it is, it seems quite likely that the coronavirus pandemic will be 'over' before the CHIM studies HMG contracted with ORPH get seriously under way.

IMO

Thanks ! IIRC, the previous RTZ position on Simandou was described as deliberate ‘masterly inactivity’ ie appearing willing but not actually committing to anything….maybe the new broom has a new approach ?
Cheers

Hi TCO,

I think both the author and perhaps CF seem to be hedging their bets, something that I tried to convey with the curate's eggish reference :
.."In its original usage, it referred to something that is obviously and entirely bad, but is described out of politeness as nonetheless having good features that redeem it. This meaning has been largely supplanted by its less ironic modern usage, which refers to something that is in fact an indeterminate mix of good and bad..."
I was being 'less ironic' ie lukewarm.

HTH

Hi 99icecream,
This appears to be behind a paywall. Can you summarise any possible cross-ref to Zanaga for the impecunious, pls ?

TIA !

.."Best to leave no stone un-turned..."

Totally agree. My gripe is that the powers-that- be have been willing to spaff untold billions quickly and without oversight on pretty useless Track 'n Trace whilst letting the ethical standards folk contemplate the field-full of CHIM stones for an inordinate length of time.

It's fitting that this invitation (to be part of a focus group evidently to be chosen for its diversity) is for a consultative 'sounding out' event that is due to be held on the same day Thursday 27 2022 that HMG is reportedly due to lift remaining Plan 'B' restrictions...

I'm ticked off - as an ORPH investor AND as a concerned citizen and taxpayer.

Rant over.

Just received this from Imperial (I took part in the earlier focus group discussions) :

.."HIC-VAC is looking for a diverse group of members of the public to take part in a 1.5-hour discussion via Zoom about a proposed human challenge study with coronavirus which uses the Delta variant..."

Scheduled for Thurs 27th.
Not sure whether the boat has sailed, but it's certainly been delayed somewhat .....

;-<

Just received an invite to the next Proactive, on the 20th.
So maybe JS HAS been shamed into buying…..

Fint69,

It's a running joke that the Guardian is a repository for job ads for public sector (quangos and bureaucracies) and charities...as your link demonstrates.
I doubt whether SYME qualifies under either category !
;->
IMO

Gordon Bennett !

;->

.."Lucky you had all that information to hand Ex."

Thank the folk who kept pulling my posts because (admittedly, as I see it) 'Truth hurts'.
So I took to either cross-posting elsewhere (so a bit of an own goal there, guys) or just kept a copy.

But don't take my word for it - have a look at Parzival https://www.parzivalpartners.com/ and judge for yourself : TF is the only deal that they appear ever to have done.

Knock yourself out !
;->

Aaah, Parzival and THAT deal. Here's what I wrote at the time :

(1) Tradeflow's tweet .."TradeFlow is delighted to announce our merger of capabilities with the
@LSEplc -traded Supply@ME Capital plc (SYME), a synergistic development that further amplifies our ability to enable sustainable trade for SMEs...." makes the arrangement sound more like collaboration than acquisition.
Maybe reflects the staged payment terms.

(2) The deal arranger, Parzival Partners Ltd , was established in May 2020:

hTTps://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/12596148
It has 3 Officers.
Oliver Tyler - Ist company directorship July 2020, 24 years old , background HR search consultant.

Matthew Tyler - owner/director of two loss making property development companies Fox+Fox (-£ 110K), Fox Developments (-£ 12K), likely Oliver's Dad.

Thomas Bennett - Ist company directorship July 2020. Based in Street, Somerset, a stone's throw from Langport, where the 4th Parzival director Lisa Glydon (HR specialism) is based.

TF sale valuation puzzle 28 May 2021

The TradeFlow transaction is a puzzler :

(1) the independent valuation is £ 31m . "The valuation is based on the positive track record of funds launched, the Intellectual Property rights related to the proprietary digital platform ("TradeFlow+") and the TradeFlow business plan to 2025."

(2) we don't know how close the consideration payable is to the valuation. We do know that the consideration is a 2-parter : cash + shares (together approx £ 7.2m) now and the balance by way of earn-out targets (= part of the basis of valuation) being met.

(3) so here's the puzzle : the more you ascribe to the IP and funds launched and working, the less is available to ascribe to future revenue streams, which have been included for a full 5 years.

(4) TF's IP is evident and has passed not only 'proof of concept' but practical application, as shown by the 2 funds' reported progress. If valued at £ 10m , that would surely be a steal, esp. compared to the lofty £ 220m of SYME's IP + business plan valuation.

(5) Let's say £ 10m for the IP + current business , for the sake of argument. That leaves £ 21m for a full valuation of TF's business plan projected revenues or net profit through to 2025 , ie 5 years, maybe (net profit) ranging £ 2m > £ 7m , average £ 4m per year.

(6) £ 21m/ £4m NPAT would be a p/e of 5, which seems low for a financial services co and insanely low for a fintech co, where people talk of p/e ratios of 20x, 30x, 50x.....

The 2 parts together don't make sense to me : the more value you ascribe to the IP etc, the less for future earnings potential ie 'hope value' (which already seems on the low side).......and the more you value the latter, the less the IP etc is 'worth' (which is bizarre, on the basis of what we've seen of TradeFlow, on the face of it a neat, niche business, with lots of potential for growth).

Initial assessment still holds, IMO.

“To what purpose ex? I could write anything i want and the only way you could validate it would be if you asked AZ yourself...”

Well, I start from the basic but naive premise that I only tell the truth ( admittedly, as I see it) and proceed from there.

I guess there are other ways of going through life, though.

ATB

.."If you bothered to contact AZ after the agm and asked why he cast so few votes you would have the answer like I did..."

You could always turn heat into light by sharing this info with others, of course.

What a radical thought !

;->

The macro situation doesn't seem particularly supportive :

Headline from today's FT sounds negative
.."China applies brakes to Africa lending
Beijing has signalled a more cautious approach amid warnings that several African countries could struggle to repay debts.."

Behind paywall, so not clear what has prompted the article, but RoC usually figures amongst the most highly indebted...and unlike some (eg Mozambique) has a fairly high %age of Chinese and other bilateral, as opposed to multi-lateral debt.

Ho hum

Headline from today's FT sounds negative
.."China applies brakes to Africa lending
Beijing has signalled a more cautious approach amid warnings that several African countries could struggle to repay debts.."
behind paywall, so not clear what has prompted the article.
But Moz debt to China itself is relatively light, though the overall total may be the concern.
https://allafrica.com/stories/202011180856.html
.."Maputo — According to the Minister of Economy and Finance, Adriano Maleiane, Mozambique's public debt currently stands at 12.37 billion US dollars, of which about 16 per cent 2.02 billion dollars is owed to China.
The great majority of this, 1.97 billion dollars, is owed to the Chinese Exim Bank, and was mostly used to pay for roads and bridges, including the Maputo Ring Road, the suspension bridge across the Bay of Maputo, and the roads from the southern end of the bridge to the border with the South African province of Kwazulu-Natal.
Maleiane did not envisage difficulties in repayment. He pointed out that motorists must pay tolls to use the bridge and the roads and so, in the long run, they will pay for themselves.
Of the total 12.37 billion dollars of public debt, 9.85 billion is foreign debt, and the rest domestic debt, raised through high interest bearing treasury bonds. 4.35 billion dollars of the foreign debt is owed to multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and the African Development Bank (ADB).
Maleiane said the debts owed by the fraudulent, security related companies Proindicus and MAM (Mozambique Asset Management) have been excluded from the public debt. These were two of the companies that contracted loans from the banks Credit Suisse and VTB of Russia in 2013 and 2014, on the basis of illicit loan guarantees issued by the government of the day, under the then President Armando Guebuza..."

Hi Theanalyzer,

Your approach makes sense ! I seem to recall mention somewhere of the finance cycle (funders' risk self-liquidates on average within 45 days), maybe in the article touting TF's top-ranking performance during the crisis ?

The Baltic Exchange deal refers to an agri-commodity transaction between India and China.

India to China journeys seem to take 30-35 days, see
Nhava Sheva to Shanghai – 36 days FCL, 23 days LCL
Chennai to Shanghai – 31 days FCL, 18 days LCL
Kolkata to Shanghai – 36 days FCL
Chennai to Ningbo – 32 days FCL
Kolkata to Dalian or Shenzhen - 36 days FCL

The comfort/availability of extra funds would certainly reduce concentration and liquidity risk and allow TF to scale up transaction size. Even though their process is highly automated, I would imagine there'd still be 'economies of scale' benefits, too.

ATB
PS I see I was wrong earlier to say that the benefits weren't quantified, they were - loosely - in.."this revolutionary use of escrow within a commodity trade holds the promise of unlocking and enabling additional SME commodity trades worth billions of dollars each year..." though it's not clear who was responsible for this statement.

argo007
The article is full of factual errors, re RegTech activity /ownership, ECP shareholding, circumstances of ECP’s subscription, scope of Quadrivio’s Industry 4.0 Fund etc etc, as previously commented, ad nauseam.
HTH

Emerson63.

Not sure : I don't know how material in 'friction' terms the current escrow system(s) is/are, to have a sense of what difference automation/digitisation might make.
It would have been helpful to include numbers /values of deals currently handled that have escrow arrangements , to put in context.
Especially followed by a stab at what increase in amount/value of trade currently frustrated there might be if the existing impediments were removed.
That's probably the sort of survey that the ICC might usefully do !

AIUI