Member Info for extrader

Hi 33388

.."Due to the level of commitment this will subsequently require, Mr Coyle has decided it is the right time to step away from his role at Syme..."

Let's suppose you're right re imminent IM and consequent extra workload (even for a non-exec ? Whatever)....the RNS as worded suggests /implies that when JC took the role on, he never thought likely the extra workload ie he never expected IM to happen....

Shome mishtake, shurely ...

AFAICS

.."Calamari previously falsely claimed AZ was selling but Bloomberg shows all directors hold their stock. Not to be trusted..."

And yet at 2 x AGM's the Board can't/don't/won't vote the shares they are supposed to have...and the way they say they will.
'Not to be trusted', indeed !

AFAICS

.." Tradeflow was valued at up to £31 million but SYME still owe £24 million in contingent consideration payable in shares or cash.."

I think you'll find that there's a difference between the VALUATION (by an independent valuation company) and the eventual CONSIDERATION ie actual price. There's certainly no confirmation that they are congruent...or even close.

Note the wording in the post-completion 6July RNS :
.."TradeFlow has been valued at approximately GBP31 million by an independent valuation company. The Parties agreed that the transaction price will be settled in cash and shares...";
and from the 26 May RNS :

Consideration is £4m cash + 813m shares and UNSPECIFIED earnout payments, .."based on TradeFlow achieving annual revenue targets commensurate with the business plan [to 2025] that underpins its valuation.."

We're not privy to the business plan, so have no idea how realistic the valuation (which also includes the TF record of funds launched and the IP to its platform) is...and no way of assessing how close TF is to achieving the unspecified revenue targets....

I think it would be a fairly 'courageous' (copyright Yes, Minister) assumption that the outstanding consideration is £ 24m, based on the wriggle room in the RNS's and SYME's ambitious valuation at time of RTO.

AFAICS

.." I’m much more interested to hear what Mo has to say to be honest. He will be heading us up after all..."

Well, maybe. I see that CF continues as Executive Chairman and , in a rather 'yes but no but yes' comment also stated in the appointment RNS

.."The appointment of Mo as CEO adds considerable CRO experience and expertise TO OUR CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS and will allow me to FOCUS MY ATTENTION ON OTHER AREAS of the business to deliver shareholder value and it is my INTENTION TO REMAIN VERY HANDS ON and involved in the business as we go forward..."

I think there's a risk that Mo ends up as a glorified PA and CF continues to run the show, which is (IMO) a decidedly mixed blessing, instead of doing deals with DIM and Imutex, etc. and other new business development.

Let's see the body language !

AFAICS, we all pay tax, some to the government , some to others (including loved ones).

;-> / ;-<

CF has taken a lot of flak (some , admittedly, deservedly) for failure to keep to timelines. But it's a learning curve (certainly for me) as to the seemingly glacial pace that things move in the pharma sector.
Consider this :
The BBC trumpets today a new covid lifesaver, baricitinib https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60601750
.."The anti-inflammatory baricitinib is normally used to treat rheumatoid arthritis.
Trials suggest it can cut death risk by about a fifth in patients needing hospital care for severe Covid.
It could be used with other Covid treatments, such as the cheap steroid dexamethasone, to save even more lives, researchers say.
That might HALVE {Ed.: my caps] deaths.
The NHS may soon recommend baricitinib based on these new results. A 10-day course of the pills costs around £250, although the NHS may be able to negotiate a discount..."

But wait ! This was flagged as far back as Dec 2020 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54832563......and is a drug that had already passed ALL safety trials.
It was already known, from the Genomicc project

.."Scientists looked at the DNA of patients in more than 200 intensive care units in UK hospitals.
They scanned each person’s genes, which contain the instructions for every biological process - including how to fight a virus.
Their genomes were then compared with the DNA of healthy people to pinpoint any genetic differences, and a number were found - the first in a gene called TYK2.
“It is part of the system that makes your immune cells more angry, and more inflammatory,” explained Dr Baillie.
But if the gene is faulty, this immune response can go into overdrive, putting patients at risk of damaging lung inflammation.

A class of anti-inflammatory drugs already used for conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis targets this biological mechanism, including a drug called Baricitinib.
“It makes it a very plausible candidate for a new treatment,” Dr Baillie said. “But of course, we need to do large-scale clinical trials in order to find out if that's true or not.”...

Two and a half years later, after the covid horse has bolted and is disappearing in the distance, baricitinib [and its apparently remarkable effectiveness] might be pressed into service....

Ho hum

PS If you think that the above is fanciful - and it may well be - it's also well within AZ's 'sphere of competence', consider Orchestra Group :
- at the time of the Prospectus, " Orchestra Group controls more than 20 per cent. of the share capital of The AvantGarde Group and is controlled by AZ Company and AvantGarde 4.0. ; and
-"Stefania Marasco holds 70 per cent. of the shares of AvantGarde 4.0 which holds a controlling investment in Orchestra Group. "; and
- AZ Company itself was 'owned' by 2 trusts 1 x 1% and the other at 99%.

AIUI

What appears on Bloomberg isn't necessarily the whole story :

(1) Hypothetically , AZ might own 100% of a trustco that owned 40 % (for the sake of argument) of SYME; if he were to sell 49% of that (keeping 51% in trustco B) ; and then sell 49% of that (keeping 51% in trustco C)...by the time you get to trustco E, he'd be down to around 6% ie 2.4% economic interest in SYME but still having 40% control...and would appear in the 'books' as sole beneficial owner.

This is supposedly how Harry Oppenheimer could control the giant S African conglomerate DeBeers (through several chains of company ownership) despite having a minority 'net net' holding.

(2) Hand on heart, does anyone really understand what exactly happened in the merger-and-then namechange 1AF2 / TAG ?

There's a reason for the saying that the only two certainties in life are death and taxes ;-<

..I don't think....this helps your case.

Doctor 100,
You've 'misdiagnosed' the Negma / NCYT story :

..".." Novacyt entered into a convertible bond facility with Negma for a maximum amount of €5.0m over three years to support the planned growth of the Group. .."

It looks more likely that Negma was a last-ditch financing by Novacyt that it jettisoned as soon as it was able to.

https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2019-11-06/novacyt-s-a-new-term-loan-and-termination-of-convertible-bond-facility

.."Novacyt", the "Company" or the “Group”), an international specialist in clinical diagnostics, announces it has agreed a €5.0m four-year term loan. The funds will be used for the repayment of certain outstanding loans, working capital and the immediate settlement of its entire convertible bond facility."

The replacement debt financing of €5.0m (€4.9m net of fees) has been provided by Harbert European Growth Capital (“HEGC”). These funds will be used to immediately reduce certain balance sheet liabilities and provide significant working capital for the Group. The funding also means that the €5.0m convertible bond facility provided by Negma Group Ltd (“Negma”), announced on 23 April 2019 has been terminated. Of the €2.0m drawn down to date, €0.7m was unconverted and will be redeemed in cash. The remaining €3.0m of the original facility was not drawn down and has now been cancelled.

Termination of Negma convertible bond facility and cancellation of warrants
In April 2019, Novacyt entered into a convertible bond facility with Negma for a maximum amount of €5.0m over three years to support the planned growth of the Group. The Company has drawn down €2.0m from this facility with €0.7m of
this amount remaining unconverted into equity representing 278 notes of €2,500 each, which includes 74 notes issued to Negma for the arrangement fee. Under the termination agreement, the Company has made a full and final repayment of
€0.9m to Negma, including redemption premium, to redeem the remaining unconverted notes. Furthermore, the Company confirms it will not make any further draw downs against the Negma convertible bond facility.

Pursuant to the termination agreement, Negma has cancelled 1,300,000 warrants, with an exercise price of €0.22 per share that were granted to it by the Company when it entered into the convertible bond facility (the “Cancelled Warrants”). This provides the Company with sufficient shareholder authorities to fulfil the terms of the warrant agreement with HEGC. Negma continues to hold 1,679,544 warrants (the “Remaining Warrants”) which expire in April 2024. "
Bottom line ?

The Negma Euro 5m 3 year facility was pulled after 6 months [ a month before covid kicked off], when only Euro 2m had been issued, and replaced with a same -size €5.0m secured term loan is repayable over 48 months @11 % fixed, with warrants for 8.5% of loan amount and a fee of 1.5% of loan amount. NCYT were so keen to get rid of Negma that they agreed these onerous terms

I don't think

Interesting comment from a Western Shanghai-based commodities trader, talking his own book, but still...

Chinese leaders are paying keen attention to the sanctions imposed on Russia, and will make sure Beijing is not similarly vulnerable.
Having seen how access to one’s foreign assets can be refused, China will look for alternatives to holding its reserves [Ed.: $ 3.3 trillion] in US Treasury securities.
Unlike Russia, China can’t significantly add to its gold holdings without driving prices higher. But China is the biggest consumer of almost everything.

Beijing may consider shifting some of its foreign asset holdings to additional reserves of commodities it will eventually need anyway.

It's an ill wind, etc....

GLEN has 13.2 bn shares in issue and 1.4bn in Treasury, which @ £4.50 = £6.3 bn.
At 1:10 (=45p per share) GLEN could use up a whole 30 million of these to take ZIOC out....an accounting rounding error in the scheme of things. As would 2x or 3x that ratio.....

Ho hum.

A bit more than ca. £ 63 million......

;->

Oh, absolutely.
I was never in GCM, but made a shedload on POL before Tang took over.
Only posted as a possible read-across re changing sentiment.

.."The steel association has suggested the plan to be implemented by steel giants such as Baowu Steel Group, Ansteel Group, Shougang Group, as well as internationalized metals group such as China Minmetals, said the China Metallurgical News..."

BaoWu is China's largest steel manufacturer (overtook Arcelor Mittal recently as largest in the world) ....and replaced COIDIC in its dalliance with Congo-Brazzaville. Has a long-standing relationship with Fortescue Metal Group, something of a maverick amongst the Australian producers, per Trahar.

Ho hum

Interesting to see this comment on the board of another speculative coal stock GCM Resources :

"..RE: Energy security Today 08:00

Coal futures skyrocketed to a record high of $330 per tonne in early March and are now up almost 90% since the beginning of 2022, as mounting sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine led to an international energy crunch and exacerbated concerns over the commodity's supply. Germany is poised to create coal reserves for electricity power plant operators, while Italy announced it could reopen some shuttered coal plants. Asian customers have also been scrambling to find alternative supplies to replace Russian coal. "

and, more specific to the situation there (Bangladesh) :

.."Energy Adviser initiated the "import strategy" and effectively surpressed development of Bangladesh's own energy resources! This strategy has led Bangladesh into a precarious situation which could destabilise the country.... Government is already finding it externally difficult to keep up subsidies re energy, power and fertiliser...and the real inflationary effect and supply difficulties are yet to unfold!

Bringing Phulbari Coal on line will relieve the situation... To understand its importance... Consider that the Phulbari 572 million tonne resource is equivalent to 70%of the gas reserves that have powered Bangladesh over the last 50 years!.. It's that important!..."

The importance of energy security and lack of reliable alternatives may be causing a rethink in the speed the world is prepared to turn its back on coal.

Ho hum

.."time for AZ to come clean and the loan companies to buy back nearly 6 billion shares..."

If he doesn't 'come clean', whatever that means, he'll just say that 1AF2 has agreed the cash alternative option, at a guess.
The price of the shares - for security valuation purposes - was set out in the initial RNS, as it happens.

AIUI

The Sapro-Mayoko line at least makes sense, in that it proposes to incorporate/refurbish the existing Congo Ocean track (in a state of disrepair) where Sapro's initial ore shipments were de-railed en -route to P Noire a couple of years back.

Thanks for the link, lynthip.
This is a second (no, really) announced project, to the Sundance Resources expropriated-and-under-litigation project in the extreme north of the country, bordering Cameroon. A Chinese-backed newco based inPointe Noire and run, seemingly, by a Lebanese gentleman, is going to raise $ 10 billion for its first iron ore project......

Puhlease.....
;-<

Do you have a source for this , pls ? C-B has a long history of announcing deals that never actually materialize, so 'shovels in the ground' would be newsworthy.

TIA