Member Info for extrader

Hi MM et al

Sigh indeed.

(1) Aircraft movements : you clearly missed a trick - if I'd known the Callsign of Big Den's aircraft that flew in yesterday, from Russia (is it the same big - still unidentified, despite my asking you, twice - corporate jet he used that went on to Luanda ?), I or you might have plausibly been able to place Big Den (ex Russia) on the tarmac/terminal at Maya-Maya BRZ at the same time as PP-FCC (with its known Lula/Brazilian connection) AND HB-IWW with its speculative AD (?) connections.

Wouldn't that be meritorious 'dot-joining' ?! ;->

Feel free to fact-check the following :

(2) I first noted and queried mr.lynfarn (2 x poster) as source of MK's 'recruitment ad' link;

(3) I first noted the tag-along tweak that GLEN might take loan part-settlement in shares;

(4) Re Shard :

(i) I first queried its appointment to handle the Subscription fund-raise exercise at the outset, asking someone (Aberdeenman, maybe?) to 'mystery shop and see if he could get on to their 'waiting list' . IIRC he came back saying either they didn't reply or he hadn't made the cut, I forget which. Either way, the impression given was 'by invitation only'.

(ii) I first noted - again as a foot-note - Shard's upgrade to Joint Broker 'with immediate effect' only a couple of months ago...and wondered why that might be;

(iii) as to destination of the 14+ M shares, I've speculated elsewhere that they've likely been placed with Elphick-friendly hands (hat-tip to Jiving for '"Also noteworthy that the 5.25p discounted share price, was very close to the management/BOD share issuance price of 5.29p back in October 2023.", which may be coincidence...but maybe not).

(iv) I'm also on record as saying - to the 'dilution'/mates' rates whingers - that they can buy at the same price, as near as dammit.

As to Eddsy's equally snide comments, pls pass on to him :

Football is a distraction for the masses, sometimes a yard-stick for measuring skill at managing the electorate

(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_and_circuses;

Ex 'panem et circenses' advice for the Roman emperors. Rather spookily, that's one of DSN's nicknames

(2)https://www.theafricareport.com/61921/republic-of-congo-10-facts-about-emperor-denis-sassou-nguesso/;

Even more spookily, it was also another Emperor who was lauded for knowing when and where to fight one's battles

(3)https://www.warhistoryonline.com/napoleon/8-changes-napoleon-made-warfare.html

None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, most of us recognise that.

Collaboration is better than confrontation.

Have a nice day.

Google search seems to get round a lot of paywalls.

Some might say that's theFT...

See also the ECO Rns of 25 Aug 2021 for details of the Vendor Loan that 1AF2/ TAG provided that enabled ECP to purchase the bonds that 1AF2/TAG sold to them, said bonds secured by assets (including SYME shares) that AZ had bought from DW but not paid for....or something like that. I forget the detail.

It amounts to a sophisticated variant of a 'shell game' or 'kiting/ cross-firing' AFAICS.

NAI, DYOR, HTH

From t'other board :

Hi MM,

From 1st July.."This tallies with a corporate jet arriving in Brazzaville today [@ 4.30pm] having flown from Abu Dhabi via Dubai..."

And which flew back to AbuDhabi today 2nd July dep BRZ @ 10.30am.

The only flight meeting your specs is a Gulfstream G550 Reg HB-IIW owned by Jet Aviation Business Jets, a Basel-based provider of jet services owned by General Dynamics.

It spent the previous 2 weeks in AbuDhabi, the two weeks before that in Basel/Salzburg, the 10 days before that between London, Milan and Warsaw.

As with HB-IIW, you've previously suggested (30 May) a big private jet's movements were relevant to/implied supportive of the ZIOC investment case :

.."Readers at this point may be interested in the May movements of a corporate jet of some size.

London > Jeddah > Brazzaville > Nairobi (where and when President Nguesso was attending the African Development Bank's annual meeting). From Nairobi it was headed back to Brazzaville before diverting to Luanda, Luanda being the Portuguese-speaking city where Vale are thought to be quietly hanging out..."

These dates and destinations aren't compatible with those of HB-IIW - which in any case shows traffic appropriate for a high end taxi service - so one or other is wrong, possibly both. As a comparison of the two IDs would have made obvious.

Anyway, I was reminded of this when checking on PP-FCC (confirmed Asperbras ownership and hence the Lula/Nguesso connection), which flew

- Penapolis > Sao Paolo > Cascais on 26 June;

- Cascais > Libreville > Franceville >unknown on 30 June; and

- unknown > Libreville on 1st July [arr.1900]

There's no playback for the flight to 'unknown' on 30th, the partial flight playback on 1st July extrapolates straight-line to a departure from Brazzaville ( ...or Zanaga) earlier in the day.

Big Den may or may not have been in BRZ at the time, having flown back from Russia on the 1st.

More grist for the (rumour) mill !

GLA and ATB

Hi MM,

From 1st July.."This tallies with a corporate jet arriving in Brazzaville today [@ 4.30pm] having flown from Abu Dhabi via Dubai..."

And which flew back to AbuDhabi today 2nd July dep BRZ @ 10.30am.

The only flight meeting your specs is a Gulfstream G550 Reg HB-IIW owned by Jet Aviation Business Jets, a Basel-based provider of jet services owned by General Dynamics.

It spent the previous 2 weeks in AbuDhabi, the two weeks before that in Basel/Salzburg, the 10 days before that between London, Milan and Warsaw.

As with HB-IIW, you've previously suggested (30 May) a big private jet's movements were relevant to/implied supportive of the ZIOC investment case :

.."Readers at this point may be interested in the May movements of a corporate jet of some size.

London > Jeddah > Brazzaville > Nairobi (where and when President Nguesso was attending the African Development Bank's annual meeting). From Nairobi it was headed back to Brazzaville before diverting to Luanda, Luanda being the Portuguese-speaking city where Vale are thought to be quietly hanging out..."

These dates and destinations aren't compatible with those of HB-IIW - which in any case shows traffic appropriate for a high end taxi service - so one or other is wrong, possibly both. As a comparison of the two IDs would have made obvious.

Anyway, I was reminded of this when checking on PP-FCC (confirmed Asperbras ownership and hence the Lula/Nguesso connection), which flew

- Penapolis > Sao Paolo > Cascais on 26 June;

- Cascais > Libreville > Franceville >unknown on 30 June; and

- unknown > Libreville on 1st July [arr.1900]

There's no playback for the flight to 'unknown' on 30th, the partial flight playback on 1st July extrapolates straight-line to a departure from Brazzaville ( ...or Zanaga) earlier in the day.

Big Den may or may not have been in BRZ at the time, having flown back from Russia on the 1st.

More grist for the (rumour) mill !

Hi Moneyman64 ,

.."Yet the shareprice is down 20% due to Glencore and Elphick granting themselves more shares at bargain basement prices!.."

I'm surprised you continue to whine about this- despite the various cogent explanations/comparisons made, notably Jiving et al - when you could have been busy buying at nearly the same price as them.

You could take advantage of what you see as GLEN's and Elphick's cupidity (and others see as a good strategic move, benefiting ZIOC's negotiating position) to buy some shares yourself and 'solve' your dilution gripe - or even buy some more and (likely) lower you average s/p.

That's what Warren would do, AIUI....

PS Do you perchance post elsewhere as 'moniman' ? You appear to share some of his 'Yes, but...' approach to the bulletin boards.

HTH

See the Tr-1 : increase in holding from 2.93% to 3.63%.

You're welcome

The buyer (a threshold crossing) appears to be this guy

https://www.alignresearch.co.uk/about-us/meet-the-team/richard-jennings/

I guess he may see some value at these levels...or have some other angle in mind.

ATB

Hi Jiving,

Thanks for this.

I imagine there's a lot of bluffing and posturing going on - the apparent 'resurrection' of EPP in the latest A/R... and maybe - coincidentally - today's news on t'other board re Sundance/Nabeba concession settlement agreement?

To me, ZIOC is signalling 'we have options', maybe the Chinese are doing the same.?

In both cases, I guess the Q in counterparts' minds will be 'are they serious'?

And do the Gulfies have 'options' - other than play 'tag-along' - if they want to have a say in the whole supply chain (as seems to be Ma'aden's mantra) ?

I don't have a sense for how assertive the Japanese/Koreans might be in what is largely AIUI unfamiliar territory, Jindal is already carving its own path, could a.n.other throw their hat in the ring ? One of the Aussies ?

How much store can we set by Marty's apparently firm conviction that FEED WILL start Q3 ?

Interesting times, for sure.

ATB

Hi nibj

This is a good description of what's there : Nabeba is the Congo side of a regional deposit that includes Mbalam and Avima in Cameroon.

https://cameroonminingopportunities.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/presentation-acc80-cimec-d-meehan-presentation-cameroon-mining-forum-2013.pdf

Nabeba is upcountry Congo and export would logically be via Cameroon (which raises cross-border political issues ), and Cameroon is trying to push ahead on its side, in violation not only of Sundance's other concession claim AND contravention of its own mining laws...

So it's all a bit of a mess.

Hopefully, C-B wants to spruce up its image (maybe for our potential investors! I live in hope).

It began the mediation (which is a positive* - depending on motivation), but it will have to find the (undisclosed) settlement amount. Which could be an issue, depending on how much....

However, another possibility is that the Chinese DO intend to proceed with the mine(s), want to get papers in order and has told C-B that it will bankroll the settlement in order to get clean title to the concession(s).

From our point of view, this SHOULDN'T be a threat, since ore quality and mine scale appear to be lower, I don't have a feel for the relative potential speed of implementation. If Cameroon suddenly opened discussions, I'd be a bit more concerned - as it stands, the next Cameroon case hearing isn't until Jan 2025.

Biya of Cameroon is even older than Big Den, if that matters.

I've sent the info off to AT (in case not already alerted), but he's not been responsive to my recent attempts to get a dialogue going.

Ho hum.

Onwards and (hopefully) upwards!

ATB

My quick take, given the context :

.."In December 2020, Congo withdrew Sundance’s Congo Iron SA’s mining permit – Congolese business arm – for what it claimed to be ‘prolonged insufficiency of exploitation manifestly contrary to the potential of the deposit’, as well as neglecting to pay royalties.

The permit revocation effectively strips Sundance of its flagship project in the Sangha region despite its successful operation in the country for more than a decade. Sangha Mining Project, a Chinese shell company created merely a month prior to receiving mining rights from Congo and has ties to Hong Kong and the Caribbean, has been granted the permit instead.

Sundance is demanding $US8.8 billion ($A11.27) to compensate for exploration investments and expected lost profit from extracted iron ore exports..."

and Chinese/Communist oft-professed deference to 'the law', this might give pause for thought to anyone contemplating similar and - mutatis mutandis - confidence in anyone planning to invest in-country in the near future.

Maybe !

GLA

Reported thus in today's depeches :

.."The Republic of Congo, Sundance Resources Limited and Congo Iron SA wish to announce that a mediation has concluded and resulted in the execution of a conditional binding confidential settlement agreement which will settle and bring to an end the ongoing dispute, as well as any future other ones, between Sundance Resources Limited, Congo Iron SA and the Republic of Congo brought before the International Court of Arbitration of the ICC, or any other Court insofar as such dispute may relate to the Nabeba iron ore project.

La République du Congo, Sundance Resources Limited et Congo Iron SA"

No mention that settlement terms require C-B to make payment.

Not sure what to make of this.

Settlement/payment of undisclosed amount is due by September 2024.

I wonder who the mediator was.

Cameroon - Mbalam, etc is ongoing.

.."The proceedings against Cameroon are scheduled to be heard by the International Chamber of

Commerce (“ICC”) in Paris from 27 to 31 January 2025.

The Conditional Settlement with Congo announced on 1 July 2024 will not affect the Company’s ICC

arbitration against Cameroon..."

In both cases, Burford (BUR) is the litigation funder (I hold)

It looks as though BUR MAY receive something from just-announced settlement of the Sundance Resources litigation.

hxxps://www.sundanceresources.com.au/irm/content/company-updates.aspx?RID=468

.."Following a mediated discussion that Congo had recently initiated with Sundance, we are pleased to announce the execution of a binding but confidential and conditional settlement agreement (“Conditional Settlement”) between Sundance, Congo Iron SA and Congo (“The Parties”) which is meant to settle the ongoing and previously announced dispute between The Parties before the International Court of Arbitration of the ICC (“ICC”).

If the cash funds are disbursed as agreed in the Conditional Settlement, then the ICC arbitration will end; conversely, if the funds are not received in due course and for the full amount, then the arbitration will continue undisturbed with the hearing now expected to be held in Paris midNovember this year.

If successful, the Conditional Settlement is intended to occur by no later than the end September2024. Sundance will further update shareholders as more certainty is achieved.

In line with confidentiality clauses attached to the Conditional Settlement, Sundance is unable to disclose at this stage the quantum of the agreed cash proceeds. However, consistent with Sundance’s communications with all stakeholders, any cash proceeds received by the Company as a result of its proceedings against Congo will be applied TO MEET THE OBLIGATIONS TO SUNDANCE'S LITIGATION FUNDER and secured noteholders as well as returning value for the Company’s shareholders.

The headline claim was for USD 8.8 Bn, Congo Brazzaville has no means to pay more than a fraction of

that amount.

hxxps://disputescentre.com.au/sundance-resources-arbitration/

NAI, DYOR etc etc

GLA

It looks as though BUR MAY receive something from just-announced settlement of the Sundance Resources litigation.

hxxps://www.sundanceresources.com.au/irm/content/company-updates.aspx?RID=468

Following a mediated discussion that Congo had recently initiated with Sundance, we are pleased to announce the execution of a binding but confidential and conditional settlement agreement (“Conditional Settlement”) between Sundance, Congo Iron SA and Congo (“The Parties”) which is meant to settle the ongoing and previously announced dispute between The Parties before the International Court of Arbitration of the ICC (“ICC”).

If the cash funds are disbursed as agreed in the Conditional Settlement, then the ICC arbitration will end; conversely, if the funds are not received in due course and for the full amount, then the arbitration will continue undisturbed with the hearing now expected to be held in Paris midNovember this year.

If successful, the Conditional Settlement is intended to occur by no later than the end September2024. Sundance will further update shareholders as more certainty is achieved.

In line with confidentiality clauses attached to the Conditional Settlement, Sundance is unable to disclose at this stage the quantum of the agreed cash proceeds. However, consistent with Sundance’s communications with all stakeholders, any cash proceeds received by the Company as a result of its proceedings against Congo will be applied TO MEET THE OBLIGATIONS TO SUNDANCE'S LITIGATION FUNDER and secured noteholders as well as returning value for the Company’s shareholders.

The headline claim was for USD 8.8 Bn, Congo Brazzaville has no means to pay more than a fraction of that amount.

https://disputescentre.com.au/sundance-resources-arbitration/

NAI, DYOR etc etc

GLA

Guys,

The s/p was 8.35 around 16 June (when - coincidentally ?- GLEN's 6 month lock-up ended) and reverted to that level around 4th July 2023.

The rise followed 'dot-joining' of Royal jet aircraft movements; abrupt changes to Big Den's travel plans (including no show at the African Union peace talks delegation to Russia); and signing of the AD Ports concession on 20th June (MoU signed in March). None of them things that ZIOC would necessarily have knowledge of.

The normal 'speeding ticket' would have been for ZIOC to say 'we know of no reason', etc. All of which could be perfectly true : they may have suspected something potentially relevant was afoot - and done their own 'dot-joining'- but to say ANYTHING might have been prejudicial in some way.

Even/especially if they knew that things were nowhere nearly far advanced enough, as it has turned out (and they were maybe already holding out for a better deal).

I doubt we'll never know.

Would you rather (with the advantage of hindsight) have had ZIOC opportunistically sell some of the available Shard tranche into the rise, especially if they suspected it was likely unsustainable ? See the restrictions on which the Shard facility could/can be used.

I think - with hindsight - the reputational damage would have been greater...and the potential collateral damage significantly more so.

If anyone bought into the spike, maybe they should direct their frustration at over-enthusiastic posters ?

AFAICS - perhaps I'm missing something?

GLA

Moneyman64,

As Clint Eastwood has put it, 'If you want guarantees, buy a kettle. If you want loyalty, get a dog'.

HTH

...and if you don't like those, it has other ones.

From today's online FT

.."US sought Congo mines deal for Swiss trader Mercuria

Plan includes relaxing sanctions on Israeli billionaire to counter Chinese control of critical minerals.."

Rest behind paywall, but google is your friend. The story is worth a read. Other commodity traders than Mercuria, incl GLEN, are mentioned in passing.

Basically, European companies were reluctant to deal with sanctioned Dan Gertler (who still controls strategic mines in DRC) out of concern re US official stance.

Article describes how US is willing to be 'flexible' and supportive if the cobalt etc can be directed to 'friendly' hands, as opposed to Chinese.

Flagged in case there's any read-across for a 'strategic' acquisition (port or mine) in C-B...

GLA

Hi Driving,

What's your EOD take, now that those late trades are in ?

;->

Hi Theanalyzer,

I've pretty much given up commenting on SYME these days as things unfortunately seem to be playing out as expected.

You've called it pretty right so far, I think you may have oversimplified this bit :

.."Eight’s largest asset is a loan from a TAG subsidiary called 1AF2 Limited worth £30 million due to be repaid on 30 June 2024..."

The extra wrinkle is that ECP's purchase of the 1AF2 Bond was facilitated by a Vendor Loan (at concessionary ie to ECP profitable interest spread) and AIUI it's the latter that's the root cause of ECP's problem(s).

Either way, the moral of the story remains : Beware of spivs bearing gifts....

AFAICS

ATB

Hi Jiving,

Your ref to the flurry of activity last spring; the 'rushed' AD Ports Concession signing; and the subsequent 15 months of 'masterly inactivity' it does seem that the move may have been in part a blocking tactic to discourage/frustrate a rival group emerging ...with the hope of forcing ZIOC/GLEN into a cheap take-out.

I see the Elphick/GLEN share purchases as a signal to everyone that the 2 parties are still in lockstep; resurrection of the EPP as a signal to everyone that there's a 'plan B' (or maybe 'plan C'); and comment that the AD Ports discussions 'continue' a signal/reminder that there's no 'done deal' yet.

While the Shard hi-jinks today are (I suspect, re allocations) the reason they were promoted 'immediately' to Joint Broker as recently as the March 2024 Project and Funding update.

GLA