Member Info for extrader

..Continued

(4) The most advanced M East project - Jindal Group’s $ 3.4 Bn, 6 mtpa Vulcan project in Duqm, Oman – has just reported offtake MoU’s to absorb its full production :

Omani green steel project secures offtake pledges covering 100% of capacity - Oman Observer

I’ve not identified where it’s getting its ore from. On the face of it, all the other projects appear to have their feedstock arrangements - at least provisionally- in place.

I’m happy for you or others to correct or fill in any gaps.

ATB

In reply to a post on t'other board.

Hi MM,

Thanks for this.

(1) It looks from your link that Itochu/JFE have joined the Vale Megahub for Abu Dhabi:

..” Itochu will BEGIN a feasibility study with the UAE's largest steel producer, Emirates Steel Arkan and others, to work out the details. The 2.5mtpa plant is scheduled to start operations in 2027 or later..”

This was Vale’s 2022 release

https://vale.com/ca/w/vale-signs-agreements-to-develop-mega-hubs-in-the-middle-east-and-provide-decarbonization-solutions-for-steelmaking-1

..” On October 27th, 2022, Vale signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Emirates Steel Arkan (ESA) to jointly study a Mega Hub development at Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (KEZAD).”

It also looks as though Itochu’s contribution to the deal will include sourcing the eventual iron ore requirements, from a Brazilian company, CSN Mineracao, where it /JFE have about 8% shareholding.

(2) The link also said “MITSUI & CO. AND KOBE STEEL ARE ALSO CONSIDERING BUILDING A REDUCED IRON PLANT IN OMAN, WITH PLANS TO BEGIN PRODUCTION IN 2027”

This looks to be with Vale’s Megahub for Oman, where the status March 2024 was (Eduardo Bartolomeo) : ‘We’re maturing agreements (with the 3) AND A PARTNER IN BRAZIL for further assessments, with work starting on a first facility in 2027”

Mining giant Vale firming up plan for Mega Hub in Oman - Oman Observer

Vale already has a pair of pelletising plants in Sohar, producing 9mtpa of DRI pellets.

(3) The third Vale Megahub in Saudi –“ (MoU) with the Saudi Arabia’s National Industrial Development Center (NIDC)’-“ has gone quiet, although seemingly now linked to EssarGroup’s 5mtpa project also at Ras alKhair, which is moving ahead, also targeting completion in 3 ½ years (ie late 2027).

Essar Group: Essar awaits final approvals to start work on USD 4.5 bn steel plant in Saudi Arabia, ET Auto (indiatimes.com)

..”Vale says it and the Indian steel group Essar have signed a letter of intent establishing a partnership to supply iron ore agglomerates for the Green Steel Arabia (GSA) project in Saudi Arabia. It is the first preliminary off take supply agreement signed by Vale with a client that will be installed in a Mega Hub, an industrial complex aimed at manufacturing low-carbon steel products.

Under the agreement, Vale will supply 4 million tons per year of iron ore agglomerates (pellets or briquettes) for the direct reduction route. The briquettes will be produced by Vale at the Mega Hub in Saudi Arabia. The pellets can be produced by the company in Oman or Brazil…”

Vale advances on Mega Hubs project by signing off take agreement with Essar Group to supply iron ore agglomerates - Vale

Note that :..” Through this LOI with Vale, and the previous LoI with another supplier [Ed.: Bahrain Steel/Anglo American Brazil] we will have secured 100% of the raw material supply of iron ore feed for the Saudi Steel Pl

First time I've seen this spelled out, from

https://vale.com/ca/w/vale-advances-on-mega-hubs-project-by-signing-off-take-agreement-with-essar-group-to-supply-iron-ore-agglomerates

The division of responsibilities /Capex/Revenues

.."Last year, Vale announced agreements to develop Mega Hubs in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. In these complexes:

- Vale is expected to build and operate concentration and BRIQUETTING PLANTS within the hubs, providing secure supply of high-grade agglomerated products.

- Local parties are expected to promote the construction of the required LOGISTICS/INFRASTRUCTURE.

- Investors and/or clients are expected to CONSTRUCT AND OPERATE the DRI plants and be OFFTAKERS of HBI for either the export or domestic markets."

HTH and ATB

First time I've seen this spelled out, from

https://vale.com/ca/w/vale-advances-on-mega-hubs-project-by-signing-off-take-agreement-with-essar-group-to-supply-iron-ore-agglomerates

The division of responsibilities /Capex/Revenues

.."Last year, Vale announced agreements to develop Mega Hubs in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. In these complexes:

- Vale is expected to build and operate concentration and BRIQUETTING PLANTS within the hubs, providing secure supply of high-grade agglomerated products.

- Local parties are expected to promote the construction of the required LOGISTICS/INFRASTRUCTURE.

- Investors and/or clients are expected to CONSTRUCT AND OPERATE the DRI plants and be OFFTAKERS of HBI for either the export or domestic markets."

HTH and ATB

..Continued

(4) The most advanced M East project - Jindal Group’s $ 3.4 Bn, 6 mtpa Vulcan project in Duqm, Oman – has just reported offtake MoU’s to absorb its full production :

Omani green steel project secures offtake pledges covering 100% of capacity - Oman Observer

I’ve not identified where it’s getting its ore from. On the face of it, all the other projects appear to have their feedstock arrangements in place.

I’m happy for you or others to correct or fill in any gaps.

ATB

Hi MM,

Thanks for this.

(1) It looks from your link that Itochu/JFE have joined the Vale Megahub for Abu Dhabi:

..” Itochu will BEGIN a feasibility study with the UAE's largest steel producer, Emirates Steel Arkan and others, to work out the details. The 2.5mtpa plant is scheduled to start operations in 2027 or later..”

This was Vale’s 2022 release

https://vale.com/ca/w/vale-signs-agreements-to-develop-mega-hubs-in-the-middle-east-and-provide-decarbonization-solutions-for-steelmaking-1

..” On October 27th, 2022, Vale signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Emirates Steel Arkan (ESA) to jointly study a Mega Hub development at Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (KEZAD).”

It also looks as though Itochu’s contribution to the deal will include sourcing the eventual iron ore requirements, from a Brazilian company, CSN Mineracao, where it /JFE have about 8% shareholding.

(2) The link also said “MITSUI & CO. AND KOBE STEEL ARE ALSO CONSIDERING BUILDING A REDUCED IRON PLANT IN OMAN, WITH PLANS TO BEGIN PRODUCTION IN 2027”

This looks to be with Vale’s Megahub for Oman, where the status March 2024 was (Eduardo Bartolomeo) : ‘We’re maturing agreements (with the 3) AND A PARTNER IN BRAZIL for further assessments, with work starting on a first facility in 2027”

Mining giant Vale firming up plan for Mega Hub in Oman - Oman Observer

Vale already has a pair of pelletising plants in Sohar, producing 9mtpa of DRI pellets.

(3) The third Vale Megahub in Saudi –“ (MoU) with the Saudi Arabia’s National Industrial Development Center (NIDC)’-“ has gone quiet, although seemingly now linked to EssarGroup’s 5mtpa project also at Ras alKhair, which is moving ahead, also targeting completion in 3 ½ years (ie late 2027).

Essar Group: Essar awaits final approvals to start work on USD 4.5 bn steel plant in Saudi Arabia, ET Auto (indiatimes.com)

..”Vale says it and the Indian steel group Essar have signed a letter of intent establishing a partnership to supply iron ore agglomerates for the Green Steel Arabia (GSA) project in Saudi Arabia. It is the first preliminary off take supply agreement signed by Vale with a client that will be installed in a Mega Hub, an industrial complex aimed at manufacturing low-carbon steel products.

Under the agreement, Vale will supply 4 million tons per year of iron ore agglomerates (pellets or briquettes) for the direct reduction route. The briquettes will be produced by Vale at the Mega Hub in Saudi Arabia. The pellets can be produced by the company in Oman or Brazil…”

Vale advances on Mega Hubs project by signing off take agreement with Essar Group to supply iron ore agglomerates - Vale

Note that :..” Through this LOI with Vale, and the previous LoI with another supplier [Ed.: Bahrain Steel/Anglo American Brazil] we will have secured 100% of the raw material supply of iron ore feed for the Saudi Steel Plant. Our plan is to start production in the year 2027”.

Hi MM

Whilst we await the new week to see how things unfold, I'd be interested to hear more about your perceptive investment banker contact and why - surely you've asked - he's not invested in ZIOC ?

What doesn't he 'get' or not like?

In helping answer one puzzle, you've unfortunately created another !

TIA and ATB

..""at market for < $60 per tonne"...nice!.."

Indeed! Does the shipping cost element quoted - $ 25- shed any further light ?

I've seen Brazil > China Capesize @ $ 28, vs Oz > China @ $14, do we have any idea re Simandou assumptions ?

On the face of it, $ 25 would cover taking Zanaga production to the Far East, while M East should (?) be cheaper ...

Meanwhile, the case for 'green' continues to be made..

https://theconversation.com/chinas-green-steel-push-could-crush-australias-dirty-iron-ore-exports-219299

GLA

Exchange with mr.nayfarn :

.."Don’t shoot the messenger you’re better than that .. hold a million plus of these .. nearly choked on my croissant when I heard the timelines - needs context but that’s not for me to add. Like a few others thought it should have been RNS’d so shared simple as that .."

My reply : .."Thanks for the feedback.

If you make it to Abergele, the drinks are on me - or Driving, if he gets there first.

ATB"

Thanks for the feedback.

If you make it to Abergele, the drinks are on me - or Driving, if he gets there first.

ATB

Thanks to MM for an interpretation that 'fits the facts'.

.." He perhaps did not think the podcast would reach the ears of small shareholders, and therefore did not anticipate the effect on the share price..."

Well, MK's pretty naive, then, he re-posted it twice on linked-in : his own account and Zanaga's.

And clearly didn't think it was in breach of any 'tight NDA' he (and others) might be subject to.

As to mr.nayfarn's price-moving post (his second ever in 8 years), he was pretty quick off the mark : the interview is timestamped @ 1900 on the 19th, he shared it (just the Project bones) with us next day at 1213.

Helpful chap. I hope he makes it to Abergele!

GLA

Thanks to MM for an interpretation that 'fits the facts'.

.." He perhaps did not think the podcast would reach the ears of small shareholders, and therefore did not anticipate the effect on the share price..."

Well, MK's pretty naive, then, he re-posted it twice on linked-in : his own account and Zanaga's.

And clearly didn't think it was in breach of any 'tight NDA' he (and others) might be subject to.

As to mr.nayfarn's price-moving post (his second ever in 8 years), he was pretty quick off the mark : the interview is timestamped @ 1900 on the 19th, he shared it (just the Project bones) with us next day at 1213.

Helpful chap. I hope he makes it to Abergele!

GLA

Hi Jiving

My interest may have been misunderstood as 'concern'.

I'm pretty relaxed about the BVI jurisdiction aspect, whilst recognising that the BoD is likely more interested in the protections and defences that it offers them than any restrictions or requirements that it imposes ;->

It seems to me - from the amount of space in the RNS devoted to this and other 'governance' issues - that Elphick is playing with a straight bat . Admittedly, this is very much IMO.

I take comfort from wording such as this : .." Any matter which under the UK City Code would fall to be determined by the United Kingdom Panel on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Panel") shall be determined by the Company's board of directors in its absolute discretion or by such person appointed by the Company's board of directors to make such determination PROVIDED THAT NO INFRINGEMENT IS EVER MADE OF THE GENERAL PRINCIPAL[sic] OF EQUALITY BETWEEN SHAREHOLDERS....."

ATB

Meanwhile, Little Den is continuing to show he's a 'player' :

"..Minister Denis Christel Sassou Nguesso received in audience the Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Congo this Thursday, June 13, 2024. At the heart of their meeting, the signing by the Russian and Congolese Presidents of the intergovernmental cooperation agreement between the two country.

This signing will take place on the occasion of the next state visit of the Congolese President, His Excellency Denis Sassou N'Guesso, to Moscow.

It should be noted that the signing of the said agreement will be a prelude to the implementation of the pipeline project between Pointe-Noire and Brazzaville planned as part of bilateral cooperation..."

We've got that to look forward to,.

ATB

Yes. But it's the bits before that interest me.

Cheers

Whilst we await your insights, some may ponder Mathew 13:57.

"If the Jews of His own country would not honor God’s servant, He would take His message of salvation to those who would believe it and receive it with gladness (Matthew 8:13; 9:2, 22, 28–29)."

ATB

In the 23 Nov 2022 Acquisition RNS, Corporate Governance, UK City Code /Articles, Reg 33..

ATB

PS That reminds me. There's a bit on 'Squeeze -out ' provisions somewhere. May be worth a look ?

Gotta go!

If, big IF, the plan is to take out PI's (sufficient to get to a more 'workable' shareholder base - eg by de-listing), they could perhaps do some kind of Dutch reverse auction, whereby they'd state the intention to buy in X shares at Y price; see how many they got at that price, then raise the price to Y+; and so on, until at Y++...they'd bought in enough.

This would pit PI's against PI's, everyone juggling the trade-off between greed (price/certainty) and fear (of being caught with illiquid shares).

I've sometimes wondered whether that - or something similar - was the reason for bringing Shard in as Joint Broker, as recently as 28 March 2024, 'with immediate effect'.

GLA

Well, Marty has spelled out in some detail what he sees as the timeline...and 'joined the dots' in an explicit- if unpalatable -way.

Better that than the alternative, I suppose. It's borderline, IMO, whether he's created something of a 'false market' in disseminating these points via linked-in to an industry-specialist HR consultancy (hat tip to occasional poster mr. nayfarn - 2 x posts since 2016) and leaving the wider market to catch up in due course.

I repeat my view : these people (Elphick, GLEN, Knauth) aren't fools, there must be some 'cunning plan' - maybe borne of necessity ? - to explain this somewhat unorthodox approach.

Perhaps a deliberate lowering of expectations, followed by a deus ex machina 'reprieve', followed in turn by a low-ball tender offer to take out the PI's ?

On the face of it, the timing is unhelpful, if the plan was to use Shard 3 to pay down the GLEN loan obligations. Or maybe not...

Ho hum

GLA and ATB