Member Info for extrader

.." Yet thus far we have had no hint of a bid from them for the actual mine itself & its offtake, .."

Working backwards, how important is it - from a 'China Inc' perspective - to secure the offtake at this stage ?

If 'China Inc' has the hydropower (tick) and the extraction + route-to-market (tick - well, at least to PN), it has physical control of 100% of offtake (until it's been paid..).

At PN , AIUI, it doesn't HAVE to use whatever AD Ports' famous 'Concession' actually includes (nothing built yet, in any case) it could in principle bypass and go straight to something like the Floating Port solution proposed in the 28 May 2020 RNS :

.."New Floating Port Solution

The Floating Port solution could provide a number of advantages both technically and economically. The solution involves extending Zanaga's slurry pipeline straight out into the ocean, with significantly reduced land based facilities. The pipeline would run along the ocean floor to a fixed mooring point where the pipeline would connect to the floating dewatering, storage, and offloading vessel (FDSO). The slurry would be processed onboard by a dewatering plant and the pellet feed concentrate would be stored within the vessel. Offloading facilities would be built into the vessel to allow the FDSO to load cape size vessels directly. By utilising the FDSO Zanaga's materials handling steps would be reduced to only three phases, providing significant efficiencies and a more seamless operation.

The FDSO evaluation process has been led by Paterson & Cooke (P&C), who are leading experts in slurry pipeline design and engineering. P&C have completed a concept level report involving a comparison of the three port solutions available for the Zanaga Project, namely transhipping, deep water port, or the new floating port (FDSO).

The results of the investigation have been very positive from a technical and economic perspective. Potential has been indicated for a $184m reduction to total capital costs of the 12Mtpa Stage One Project, resulting in a reduction of total capital cost from $2,219m to $2,035m. Operating costs are expected to be maintained at approximately $6.5 per tonne due to previously high transshipping costs being substituted by a lease cost to the EPC contractor providing the solution. The net impact on economics shows the potential for the Floating Port to produce a significant NPV and IRR improvement...."

The 29 September 2020 RNS introduced Yantai Port Group into the Floating Port equation as potential logistics operator.

'China Inc' (cf COIDIC we believe the CPC is fully apprised of this project) could present these cards to ZIOC for consideration by any other interested 'strategic investors or partners' , for ZIOC et al to negotiate a suitable compromise over the share of mine ownership at one end and share in eventual offtake at the other.

Fanciful ?

Maybe.

'Something for the weekend, sir?'

GLA

Mildly curious, also (given your insights), that Seb should have re-posted the journalist's comment, which - whilst not necessarily endorsing his view - at least suggest that he finds it 'interesting' or 're-postworthy'.

Maybe Seb's got an angle here .....?!

ATB

Hi beardozer,

With respect, you're comparing apples with oranges :

- re doomanation, he's definitely in the 'vexatious' camp, posting comments that are factually incorrect, whether out of ignorance or malice is open to debate. Either way...

- re Moneyman64, my comment 'fair enough' was specifically in response to his reasonable reply - if unhappy with the s/p price, why not invest more? - 'because of his existing exposure'. This I quite understand.

My overall objection to his approach - posting 7 times (= ad nauseam) to complain to fellow posters (what are we supposed to do about it ?) re Elphick/GLEN's alleged 'manipulation' and even urging an FCA investigation, when we clearly don't have the full picture - remains.

All the more so for being COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE (if anything) to the share-price, THE VERY ISSUE HE'S COMPLAINING ABOUT !

Hence my exasperated 'Sheesh!'.

'When in danger, when in doubt,

Run in circles, scream and shout'

doesn't really help matters.

As I'm sure you can see.

Thanks Mr M for this 'local colour'.

I hadn't taken account of the Madrid politics, the Argentinian ones -and the somewhat incestuous, maybe even toxic? nature of the suggestion - is sufficient a puzzle.

Which rather begs the question : Why would 'Intransigente' be floating the idea, in fairly specific terms?

What are their politics/credibility ? I tried to check them out ('aka 'consider the source'), but didn't get very far...

ATB

The Eskenazi family behind the YPF imbroglio is - reportedly - trying to do another deal in Argentina.....

Seb's latest snippet

BBVA (a Spanish bank) is thinking of following HSBC's path [and exiting Argentina].

hxxps://elintransigente.com/2024/07/el-banco-bbva-planea-abandonar-la-argentina-quien-se-quedara-con-el-gigante-espanol/

Link to article asking who might buy BBVA's network ?

.."After the recent acquisition of HSBC bank [Argentina network] by Galicia, a new wave of movements in the Argentinean banking sector seems to be underway. The renowned economic journalist Mariano Gorodisch has dropped a bombshell in the financial world: there is a possible sale of BBVA Bank in Argentina to the Petersen Group, which leads regional banking.

Gorodisch has revealed, in an interview for the A24 channel, that a major Spanish bank is looking to withdraw from the Argentinean market. Although the name of the bank has not yet been officially confirmed, there is speculation that it is BBVA, one of the largest banks with the strongest presence in the country.

The news has generated great expectation and speculation in the financial sector.

According to Gorodisch, there is already an interested buyer: the powerful Petersen Group. This Argentinean company, with a solid base in the south of the country, is seriously evaluating the possibility of acquiring BBVA, although negotiations are still at an early stage...

If true, it would appear to open a number of 'horse-trading' possibilities, since any acquisition would need a raft of Central Bank and Government approvals/blessings.

Hopefully Seb himself or others will say more.

GLA and ATB

From depeches

C-B gets a USD100M grant from the World Bank, for improvements to decayed electricity network :

.."Congo is implementing an emergency plan to put an end to the inconvenience the population has been experiencing for months and to tackle, in particular, the problems with the electricity between the two towns. According to him, the electricity produced at Pointe-Noire is having difficulty reaching Brazzaville. "We currently produce 300 megawatts dedicated to Brazzaville. But when this is fed into the national grid, users only receive 110 megawatts because of the dilapidated power lines. They have not undergone any major maintenance "he explained...."

No surprises there, maybe - other than his frankness as to the cause.

Interestingly, the Minister went on to say that credit requirements have improved for dams , it sounds like a climb-down from historic Build Own Operate Transfer (BOOT) or Build Operate Transfer (BOT) and a boost for Little Den's Public Private Partnership (PPP) approach

..""Today, the government has decided to LEASE the concession of dams, and take the fear away from investors

who were reluctant to invest outright, produce and sell electricity and then not get paid. Now that this has happened, everyone is comfortable. The removal of this knot frees up investors WHO ARE STARTING TO COME IN WITHOUT ASKING FOR SOVEREIGN GUARANTEES OR BANK GUARANTEES. These are the the results of SEVERAL MONTHS of negotiations as part of the reforms", explained the Minister.

All a bit sketchy, but my guess is relevant to CMEC and 'our' hydropower . From the 28 December RNS :

.."Following CMEC's preliminary inspections and engineering of potential hydroelectric sites near the Zanaga Project, an MoU has been agreed between ZIOC and CMEC with the following objectives:

o Advance engineering and related studies for the identified hydroelectric sites near the Zanaga Project.

o DRAFT ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE FUNDING OF DEVELOPMENT AND OPERATION OF THE IDENTIFIED HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT(S) BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF CONGO AND THIRD PARTIES..."

The timing certainly fits.

What do folk think?

GLA and ATB

From depeches

C-B gets a USD100M grant from the World Bank, for improvements to decayed electricity network :

.."Congo is implementing an emergency plan to put an end to the inconvenience the population has been experiencing for months and to tackle, in particular, the problems with the electricity between the two towns. According to him, the electricity produced at Pointe-Noire is having difficulty reaching Brazzaville. "We currently produce 300 megawatts dedicated to Brazzaville. But when this is fed into the national grid, users only receive 110 megawatts because of the dilapidated power lines. They have not undergone any major maintenance "he explained...."

No surprises there, maybe - other than his frankness as to the cause.

Interestingly, the Minister went on to say that credit requirements have improved for dams , it sounds like a climb-down from historic Build Own Operate Transfer (BOOT) or Build Operate Transfer (BOT) and a boost for Little Den's Public Private Partnership (PPP) approach

..""Today, the government has decided to LEASE the concession of dams, and take the fear away from investors

who were reluctant to invest outright, produce and sell electricity and then not get paid. Now that this has happened, everyone is comfortable. The removal of this knot frees up investors WHO ARE STARTING TO COME IN WITHOUT ASKING FOR SOVEREIGN GUARANTEES OR BANK GUARANTEES. These are the the results of SEVERAL MONTHS of negotiations as part of the reforms", explained the Minister.

All a bit sketchy, but my guess is relevant to CMEC and 'our' hydropower . From the 28 December RNS :

.."Following CMEC's preliminary inspections and engineering of potential hydroelectric sites near the Zanaga Project, an MoU has been agreed between ZIOC and CMEC with the following objectives:

o Advance engineering and related studies for the identified hydroelectric sites near the Zanaga Project.

o DRAFT ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE FUNDING OF DEVELOPMENT AND OPERATION OF THE IDENTIFIED HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT(S) BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF CONGO AND THIRD PARTIES..."

The timing certainly fits.

GLA and ATB

Referring to Sundance...

QED

Pls see the lengthy thread on Sundance litigation (and C-B's climbdown) that I started on 2nd July and then have the integrity to apologise.

Little Den gets it...

.."The company Playse, managed by @MatuidiBlaise , the former French international footballer and 2018 world champion, has signed, with the Congolese government, the concession contract relating to the management of the Alima Academy. At this signing, which took place on July 9 at #Brazzaville , the government was represented by ministers Hugues Ngouelondele (Sports), Jean-Baptiste Ondaye (Finance) and Denis @ChristelSassou Nguesso (Promotion of PPP).

This football school project, which will rely on Playse's expertise in talent detection and supervision, aims to enable the Republic of Congo to bring out a new class of talented footballers in order to raise the level general of the national team of #football , eventually. The Minister responsible for Sports indicated that the first wave of students from the Alima Academy will include the 40 students selected out of the 8,000 who took the tests.

For his part, the Minister responsible for International Cooperation and the Promotion of Public-Private Partnership ( #PPP ) declared to the press that this school could constitute the crucible of our local football clubs; which will allow us to have a better quality national championship in the years to come. “It will be up to us to monitor this partnership” so that the objectives sought by both parties are achieved, he concluded..."

'Talk the talk...or walk the walk...?

There are no 'more paper projects', just different-scale versions of one.

The BoD are unpaid, the management team have taken 'shares in lieu' for several years..and only crystallised these (at a discount) a while back, in anticipation (many believe) of a 'monetisation event' that failed to materialise.

Any reasonable observer would agree that ZIOC's share issuance history has been miserly and only 'in extremis', hardly therefore the 'lifestyle company' that you describe.

If you're not aware of this background, your opinion is pretty worthless, and if you are aware but choose to post anyway that tells me how to value your comments.

I don't filter many, since there may be a diamond in the roughest of rough, but the 'simply vexatious' I do.

Ciao.

.."A delayed buy negates this afternoon's shake.....we're being played..."

Agreed. The only (eternal, per Lenin) question is : 'who/whom?'

ATB

.."Can someone explain how a slurry pipe will stretch 300km across barren land through mud hut villages to an awaiting vessel? At a port that’s yet to be built?.."

You must have missed the various presentations and extensive discussions on the 2 x ZIOC boards over the last 7 years on how this sort of thing is done - all the time - in the extractive industries sector.

HTH

And again...

Argentina rolls out aviation reform in bid to bring in foreign airlines...

hTTps://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/argentina-rolls-out-aviation-reform-bid-bring-foreign-airlines-2024-07-10/

.."Last year, Aerolineas turned a $32 million net profit, according to the company.

Unions have heavily criticized the industry reforms, arguing that the government is hurting Aerolineas' operations and employees in order to bring in low-cost competitors.

Aerolineas has cut some frequencies and trimmed its workforce in recent months, according to the unions..."

Who'd have thought Milei was a Corbynista at heart : 'For the many, not the few'?

GLA

Oops! Typo on re-read : for Bakmla, read Baniaka...

Talk of (and action on) an EPP would (maybe) serve to signal to third parties that 'we have options'...and to C-B that ZIOC was taking steps to protect its license for the 2 years between announcement of start of FEED and completion 15 months later (per MK). I've listened again and he's confident on the timeline.

This takes us to 2026, when C-B 's next Presidential elections are due : Big Den is probably barred constitutionally (technically by law and physically by age...but cf Biden...), but that's a big political unknown.

The mood isn't good . This editorial , from depeches on 8th July, gives a flavour. Note that the editor used to be considered a Big Den mouthpiece :

.."To date, even if potential candidates have not yet breathed a word, the web is revisiting the issues that

that could dominate the next major electoral campaign . Without being exhaustive, the concerns

below give a general idea of their scope.

Growing urban insecurity, the age-old issue of youth employment , the current economic situation and its corollary,

foreseeable social tensions, uncertain water and electricity supplies, the hoped-for improvement in living environment, the expected improvement in health issues, and the overhaul of the education system, external relations and their implications in terms of in terms of strengthening Congolese diplomacy, national cohesion and the willingness of

partners, all of which are essential to the implementation of the reforms that the country needs to move forward, this body of concerns around which the reflections of some and thoughts on the web speak volumes...."

I take it you're not proposing delivery to PN ?, the reference to AD Ports.

The logistics of delivery of anything to Franceville remain considerable, IIRC someone years back (atg ?) pointed to its challenges - over a mud road, with seasonal issues.

Even 1m tpa on 40ton trucks would entail delivery of 3,000 tons per day @ 350 days pa, a minimum 75 truckloads, so probably 100-150 trucks (capex) for the cycle (consumables opex).

I can't see $ 50 /t cost at quayside (the above + freight Franceville > Libreville / Owendo)being realistic.

See the recent post re Bakmla (which has a short drive to the Franceville railhead for comparitives):

It's at a similar inflexion point to ZIOC , and also pursuing a go-it-alone strategy, made possible by low capex/low -tech approach.

It's close to the Franceville railhead and available 'green' hydropower, has reasonably high quality ore, target production of 5mtpa and 4 x short-life offtake MoUs with Chinese co's, including Bao Wu.

Also : a USD 10M royalty agreement with Anglo American and some interesting economics, including a claimed 38% IRR...

https://www.genmingroup.com/investors/presentations/

and

https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/GEN/02770418.pdf

I don't understand MK's confidence and your ref to flights, Vale and Luanda.

GLA

Award of KON 19 5th July not previously RNS'd ?

>>"Dubai > Brazzaville > Pointe Noire > Brazzaville > Libreville > Luanda?

EPP export options? AD Ports and Vale?.."

Neither, AFAICS.

EPP first :

Cross-border > Gabon has become, if anything, more problematic since ouster last year of Big Den's relative-by-marriage and fellow Freemason Grandmaster Ali Bongo; rail capacity Franceville> Libreville/Owendo is limited and freight capacity expansion underway 12mtpa > 19mtpa will likely be taken up by Bakiama's initial 5mtpa target. The trucking of iron ore Zanaga to Franceville is also 'challenging'. Apart from manganese, its freight also includes uranium, iron ore and TIMBER.

Vale may be agnostic, but AD Ports will be interested in a Congo/Pointe Noire solution.

Re flts : Given the above, the relevance of destinations Libreville and Luanda to your speculation re Vale/AD Ports discussions and a ZIOC context is hard to see.

HB-IIW appears to have sat around in AbuDhabi since 2nd July and PP-FCC (owned by Asperbras, the known timber trader) HAS been shuttling between Brazzaville, Libreville and Franceville, but left for Cascais today.

Asperbras, of course, itself has a presence in Luanda -from whence it funnelled funds to Lula's election campaign - and where (true to form ?)- it's been accused of double-invoicing /over-charging on bus-supply contracts .

https://angola24horas.com/politica/item/8398-governo-compra-3-000-autocarros-escolares-com-suspeita-de-superfaturamento

Maybe Asperbras is also the owner of your mystery jet....and further speculation is idle ?

Ho hum

Hi Jiving,

.." Project generators receive lower buyout valuations for their projects than mine developers, my take is that the last 12 months have been an attempt via the 2024 FS & the Marty appointment, to push the buyout price above that which a project generator could expect..."

Got it in one, IMO.

As a crude comparison, we've got the land (for a while, at least), outline planning permission > detailed planning permission, we waiting for someone to come along and do the 'heavy lifting'.... that - and country risk discount - always made more fanciful s/p valuations based on NPV 'aspirational', to say the least.

I saw no reason to revise my charity sweep entry (of 200p) upwards., despite the increased NPV (and the 'sizzle' of the remaining, unexplored resource....'open at depth', etc).

.."Elphick makes all decisions here, including who releases interviews & roughly what they say. .."

So where does MK's HR interview fit in that scheme of things....and specifically MK's pretty confident statement that FEED would be underway in Q3 ?

'There are more questions than answers....and the more I find out, the less I know' !

ATB and GLA

Fair enough.

I think we're both agreed that the contents of the glass are not what we'd like at this stage, the Q is : partly full? or partly empty?

Both can be true at the same time....

ATB

Milei's next move...

hxxps://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/milei-lines-up-midnight-pacto-de-mayo-signing.phtml

ARGENTINA | 06-07-2024 05:38

Milei lines up midnight ‘Pacto de Mayo’ signing

Javier Milei’s next key moment, the signing of his ‘Pacto de 25 de Mayo,’ will take place in Tucumán at the strike of midnight on Independence Day. Guest list still up in the air, with Mauricio Macri expected to be the only former president in attendance.

.."10 points from the ‘Pacto de Mayo’

Milei’s accord consists of the following 10 points, with the educational item a recent incorporation:

-The inviolability of private property.

-Fiscal balance is non-negotiable.

-Reduction of public spending to its historic levels of around 25 percent of Gross Domestic Product.

-A useful and modern primary and secondary education with full literacy and without school dropouts.

-A tax reform which reduces the tax burden, simplifies the life of Argentines and promotes commerce.

-A-renewed discussion of federal revenue-sharing to end for good the current extortionate model which the provinces suffer.

-The commitment of the Argentine provinces to advance in the exploitation of the country’s natural resources

-A modern labour reform which promotes formal employment.

-A pension reform which makes the system sustainable and respects those who have contributed.

-Opening up to international trade so that Argentina can again be a protagonist of the global market.

“These 10 ideas, which are the bases for the progress of any nation, could set the conditions for Argentine growth for the next 100 years so that Argentina is a lighthouse for the West once more,” said President Milei...."

Not a bad wishlist.

In fact, some of these wouldn't go amiss in the UK ;-