Member Info for extrader

Hi Vet10

'Can we really see 40x?'

You're asking this of someon who bought 100,000 ASC @ 4.9p....subsequent peak £75....!

And no, I didn't hold throughout ;-<

I let the 'tax tail' - prospective withdrawal of AIM tax taper relief - wag the investment dog, unfortunately.

Still made approx 30x, which is my best ever.

To date...

;->

ATB

.."Don't LTHs have a lot to complain about?.."

That depends on how you look at things.

I think Elphick has dealt with a weak hand pretty well, all things considered .

I take account of the following :

- ZIOC started out as a fairly speculative 'mine promoter' and manoeuvred to get Xstrata to buy in, which turned the company into a credible 'mine developer';

- it then had the misfortune to see GLEN (Ivan) doublecross Xstrata (Mick Davies) and turn what would have been a ZIOC neutral/positive merger of the two into a takeover by GLEN (Ivan = the 'dealer'; Davies was 'the digger');

- ZIOC then had to keep the plates spinning over the subsequent multi-year collapse in commodities prices; and wait out 'no greenfield' Ivan , until a more amenable CEO succeeded him (or, to be fair, circs changed and the 'green ore' movement became sexier);

- It latterly negotiated with GLEN a corporate restructuring to make itself more approachable/realistically saleable and has shown considerable skill (I would suggest) at manoeuvring itself into a position where there is at least the possibility of a competitive bidding situation emerging, with the prospect of ZIOC attracting a better price than a plain vanilla 'mine promoter' would get;

- it's kept the Congolese on side and its paperwork in order; it's weathered the vagaries of Congo mismanagement, corruption and debt crises (and the considerable country risk that I bang on about and most blithely deem an irrelevance); the global economic ups-and-downs; the Covid hiatus; Russia/Ukraine; M East conflicts ; Chinese economic slow-down, etc etc;

- as I've shown, it's done all this with MINIMAL dilution for funding to keep the lights on (49.4 m SCM subscriptions) and a relatively modest (by AIM standards) BoD/Management reward (over 13 years) of abt 36.5m shares, with an est. 25.6m in outstanding options.

If you had 1 % of ZIOC in 2017, you'd have 2.83m shares today, which would be 2.83m/673.8m = 0.42 %.

But that's 0.42% of the WHOLE company, not of 50% - 1.

So you've still got 0.84% of your initial stake; in a larger, more 'credible' business; where YOUR management is (nominally at least) more in charge; and where it may actually be getting close to delivering on the promise of so many years ago.

Meanwhile , you've had several opportunities over the years to raise your holding at the same level as subscribers (or even lower), and improve your average buy-in price.

Sure, communication has been poor; and there's lots of 'known unknowns', never mind 'unknown unknowns'.

But if you go back to the start, PI's were only ever 'a necessary evil' : 14.1% of the Company, 1/2 to fund it until (it was believed) Xstrata would enable a 'flip'; 1/2 to repay the promoters' seed investment.

'What would Homer do'?

- Follow your instincts;

- Seek comfort;

- Ask for advice; or

- Take a nap.

HTH

PS I've deliberately over-simplified the 'bull' case. Feel free to do the opposite.

Beardozer,

I toggle, somewhat reluctantly between 2 x boards, because of the underlap of new info and willingness to engage/exchange points of view : there's quality (and dross) on both boards.

Sometimes you have to deal with the world as it is...and not as we would like it to be.

'Think on't !'

GLA

Thanks alwayshoping !

This follow-on piece is maybe a little more ZIOC-relevant ?

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2557651/saudi-arabia

The parties discussed ..."the promising investment opportunities provided by the Saudi mining sector to Brazilian companies, and the expansion plans of Brazil’s investors in the Kingdom..." and the article concludes :

.."The Kingdom values international cooperation and partnerships in addressing MINERAL SUPPLY CHAIN challenges.

To attract investors, Saudi Arabia has improved the investment environment, including in mining, and by offering incentives such as contributing 75 percent OF THE FINANCING OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, a five-year TAX EXEMPTION, and 100 percent DIRECT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP...."

Saudi certainly seems to be rolling out the red (or green?) carpet.

GLA

Thanks alwayshoping !

This follow-on piece is maybe a little more ZIOC-relevant ?

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2557651/saudi-arabia

The parties discussed ..."the promising investment opportunities provided by the Saudi mining sector to Brazilian companies, and the expansion plans of Brazil’s investors in the Kingdom..." and the article concludes :

.."The Kingdom values international cooperation and partnerships in addressing MINERAL SUPPLY CHAIN challenges.

To attract investors, Saudi Arabia has improved the investment environment, including in mining, and by offering incentives such as contributing 75 percent OF THE FINANCING OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, a five-year TAX EXEMPTION, and 100 percent DIRECT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP...."

Saudi certainly seems to be rolling out the red (or green?) carpet.

GLA

Hi Beardozer,

.." Why not try posting what YOU think about ZIOC?"

Would it make a difference ?

.."Have you thought about not posting irrelevant rubbish? .."

Most of my comments are ZIOC or ZIOC-related, as much as anything else to record/clarify my own thinking and invite contrarian/informed views.

If you're not interested, pls filter me.

If you ARE interested, pls contribute to the discussion ...and avoid falling into the tiresome and unproductive moaning Minnie category.

Have a great weekend y'all.

Hi Jiving,

Thanks for the ref.

The 2 x holdings - direct and indirect are both his, the A/R appears from your quote to include only 1.

But the 2 Oct 2023 RNS states :

Director Clifford Elphick

Existing interest New Ordinary Shares being issued Resulting interest % interest in the issued capital

80,252,592 2,167,220 82,419,812 13.02

Thanks also for the pointer to Company Secretary.

My holdings are via nominees, which may complicate things.

More than anything, I'm irritated at AT's silence, esp in present circs.

GLA

Source : Depeches, Council of Ministers mtg Weds 24th July

.."The members of the Council commented on this major diplomatic success and congratulated President Denis Sassou N'Guesso, whose international influence explains the rise of our country..."

In case there was any doubt...

;->

GLA

Source : Depeches, Council of Ministers mtg Weds 24th July

.."The members of the Council commented on this major diplomatic success and congratulated President Denis Sassou N'Guesso, whose international influence explains the rise of our country..."

In case there was any doubt...

;->

GLA

.."Congo appointed co-chair of the 9th edition of Focac

The Republic of Congo will co-chair, alongside China, the 9th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (Focac) for a term running from 2024 to 2027, from the time of the Forum's 4 and 5 September summit that will bring together the Chinese

and his African counterparts, announced the Minister for International Cooperation

and the Promotion of Public-Private Partnerships, Denis Christel Sassou Nguesso, announced at the Council of Ministers..."

Announced by Little Den....

"

With FEED, FOCAC and C-B's settlement of Sundance Resources' Mbalam Nabeba concession all due in September, there 's a fair bit of newsflow upcoming..."

GLA

.."Congo appointed co-chair of the 9th edition of Focac

The Republic of Congo will co-chair, alongside China, the 9th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (Focac) for a term running from 2024 to 2027, from the time of the Forum's 4 and 5 September summit that will bring together the Chinese

and his African counterparts, announced the Minister for International Cooperation

and the Promotion of Public-Private Partnerships, Denis Christel Sassou Nguesso, announced at the Council of Ministers..."

Announced by Little Den....

GLA

The bit quoted in caps cuts both ways, more unambiguously encouraging is the earlier bit..".. attract investments TO Saudi Arabia..".

Onwards and upwards!

GLA

The error - as I see it - on ZIOC's Investor relations page persists.

Elphick's holding at 4th July is quoted as

Guava Minerals Limited1 79,907,592 11.86%

I wrote to AT thusly :

.."In the 31 Aug 2018 Guava unbundling RNS, we're told his interest was reduced by 8,477,805 (then 2.99%) to 80,252,592, for tax planning purposes.

In the 2 Oct 2023 New Equity RNS, we're told his holding increased by 2,167,220 to 82,419,812.

Per the recent RNS's , we're told his stake increased by 300,223....arithmetically to 82,720,035, or 12.27% of 673,793,41.

What have I missed, pls ?"

So far no reply.

Meanwhile, lse has updated Elphick's holdings, also (AFAICS) incorrectly, see above, to

Clifford Thomas Elphick 5.25 GBX 300,223 89,030,620

Lse appears to have omitted to take account of both the (-8,477,805 Guava holding carve-out RNS Aug 2018) and the (+2,167, 220 Elphick share, BoD + m'gment new equity, RNS Oct 2023), which after adjustments would bring his holding around to what I believe is the correct 82,720,035 (12.28%).

The 2018 and 2023 RNS's both quote the adjusted new total holding AFTER the share disposal or addition, so I'm at a loss to explain.

I can see why AT would fail to address my somewhat cheeky add-on request for details of the new 14.3m shareholder(s) identity, but the failure to clarify/correct Elphick's holding is more irritating. Especially if it forms any part of ZIOC's engagement with interested parties.

I note that GLEN's own Notice of Major Holding was RNS'd on 9th July and would expect the same from Elphick - not because the latest 300,223 is material in itself, but because (1)his website reported current holding of 79,907,592 or 11.86% and his actual holding (AIUI) of 82,720,035 (12.28%) and (2) his corrected previous holding of 82,419,812 / 620,989,909 = 13.27% and his actual holding both cross the whole percentage change notifiable threshold.

I 'blame' the 'unintended consequence' of a drip-feed subscription-driven gradual rise in total shares for what I think is just an admin nightmare/oversight, but now would be an opportune moment to correct.

GLA

Hi Mr M,

Certainly mediation is the healthier way forward ' 'jaw-jaw' is better than 'war-war', as Churchill supposedly said.

Can you say more about this bit, pls ?

.." I think she will side with Argentina on this issue but will favor the judgment creditors later this year on the Alter Ego issue..."

If Preska decides that YPF is an instrumentality of the Argentine Republic, doesn't that make it and its assets 'fair game' for seizure by Argentina's creditors ? ie it would, for practical purposes, have the same outcome (in due course) as a favourable-to-creditors verdict now.

Are you seeing some other purpose?

Would a later verdict, after initial compromise, be 'better' from a political/presentational/execution point of view ? If so, to whose benefit? The 'even-handedness' of the US legal system? Argentina's ? US geo-politics ?

Grateful for your comments !

ATB

Just in from Seb :

BUR's pleadings re YPF :

YPF judgment creditors: "That evidence begins with the February 2012 memorandum from Argentine Secretary of Energy Daniel Cameron to Argentina’s appointed member of the YPF board. In that memorandum, Cameron laid out two routes for acquiring control: first, “under the rules of [YPF’s] own bylaws,” which “implies moving forward with a stock tender offer,” or second, through “expropriation,” which would allow Argentina “to take control of the company without prior payment" A tender offer would cost Argentina “between 11 billion and 14.5 billion dollars,” so Cameron concluded “[t]he only way to go is expropriation.”

YPF judgment creditors: "That inference of causation is confirmed by the April 17, 2012 speech to the Argentine Congress by Axel Kicillof, in his dual role as YPF’s Vice-Intervenor and Argentina’s Secretary of Economic Policy and Development Planning. In that speech—one day after the intervention—Kicillof unambiguously declared that YPF would do nothing at all to enforce the Bylaws, openly mocking as “fools … those who think that the State has to be stupid and buy everything according to the law of YPF itself, respecting its bylaws,” and dismissing the tender-offer provisions as a “bear trap.”

YPF judgment creditors: "Even if Argentina and YPF could somehow avoid their contractual obligations under the Bylaws, they would still remain bound by their equally clear promises in the IPO prospectus and subsequent SEC filings, which deliberately induced massive and concrete reliance on the part of Plaintiffs and other investors."

YPF judgment creditors: "YPF not only failed to carry out its promises to investors to police Argentina’s violations, but independently breached the Bylaws by taking actions that the Bylaws expressly prohibited".

Strong stuff!

GLA

.."You could also mention that in May 2023 Vale entered into a JV with AD Ports to own and manage a fleet of Very Large Ore Carriers, VLOCs being the behemoths used to ship Brazilian ore to China. There's no other project other than Zanaga where this could apply..."

Actually, rather than a JV, it's a fairly general MoU, AFAICS :

https://www.adportsgroup.com/en/news-and-media/2023/05/24/ad-ports-group-and-vale-to-jointly-develop-low-carbon-mega-hubs-for-steel-industry

.."The agreement also includes a maritime collaboration to explore opportunities related to management and operation of very large ore carriers (VLOCs) as well as other possible avenues of partnership..."

This came out around the same time that AD Ports was migrating its MoU re Pointe-Noire to a formal 30 year Concession

that promised :

.."AD Ports Group will invest more than US$ 500 million over the life of the concession, with around US$ 220 million allocated for phase 1, which is expected to be completed over the next 30 months..."

which I think is now recognised as an attempt by the Gulfies (MBS/MBZ) collaborating to 'corner' the (ZIOC) market.

To his credit, Elphick has defended his corner well in seeking to extract more than a 'project originator' valuation for Zanaga..

With FEED, FOCAC and C-B's settlement of Sundance Resources' Mbalam Nabeba concession all due in September, there 's a fair bit of newsflow upcoming.

GLA

Thanks, Driving

Includes a ref to Mutanda, where MK worked for a spell turning things round...and perhaps where he got/reinforced the ESG 'bug' !

Chief Operations Officer - MutandaChief Operations Officer - Mutanda

Aug 2021 - Dec 2021 · 5 mosAug 2021 to Dec 2021 · 5 mos

Katanga, Congo (DRC)Katanga, Congo (DRC)

Leading Mutanda's ramp up of operations.

ATB

(1) Long article comparing how Russian and Chinese 'security' companies operate in Africa...(spoiler : the Russians are more interested in 'kinetic', the Chinese more in 'economic/strategic).

Article taken from

https://www.frstrategie.org/publications/recherches-et-documents/entreprises-services-securite-defense-russes-chinoises-afrique-deux-modeles-concurrents-2024

(2) The Belgian chargé d'affaires spoke of the economic and financial situation in the Congo which he said, had improved considerably over the last four years.

‘Four years ago, as we can say today the Republic of Congo was in a fairly poor financial situation and was struggling to meet its obligations. Four years later, thanks in particular to the remarkable effort made under the impetus of the Head

of State, as part of the programme with the International Monetary Fund which has just successfully concluded its fifth review, we are dealing with a country that has put its financial house in order and honours its obligations, and has thus laid the foundations, I am convinced to further develop economic relations with its partners, including Belgium ....."

.." Among the economic operations carried out by Belgian businessmen , there is the delivery of locomotives to Chemin de fer Congo-Océan railway [Ed.: now dormant], dredging the port of Pointe-Noire, the construction of the Impfondo power station [Ed.: no record found], ‘and above all the supply by the Belgian company Exmar of a floating gas liquefaction unit : A transaction of historic proportions for a Belgian company - Euro 750 million -a major contribution to the development of ENI's gas project..."

(3) Six senior hospital management under investigation for illicit diversion of State funds The six people referred,

presumed innocent, are none other than the Managing Director the General Manager, the Economic and Financial Director, the former credit manager, all from Dolisie General Hospital. They are joined by the technical advisor and the

advisor to the Minister of Health and Population, the financial services administrator of the Loandjili hospital in Pointe-Noire.

Plus ca change.

GLA

More to the point (because HELD's already had the benefit of Riverfort's money), what's the status of the 'fresh' money, the EUR 1m loan, expected back in June wasn't it?

Never mind the extra funds now needed - apparently- to carry on 'completing' facilities supposedly commissioned some time last year.

How management can sign off on these updates with a straight face is quite amazing, IMO.

ATB

Ho hum

Reply to MM's statement :

.."So Shard 'placed' 14.4m shares into the hands of their mates at 5.25p..."

I can see why the thesis is tempting, but remain unpersuaded , since I don't see * how it squares with the following :

(1) Elphick is famously - and thankfully - obsessed with minimising dilution : the first 21 m facility took from Jan 21 to Jun 23 (2 1/2 years) to be drawn; it took a further year to Jun 24 to draw down TR 1 and 2 (24 of the 36m facility); and the 14.4m + GLEN/Elphick 4.8m = 19.2m subscriptions are covered by TR3 12m and 7.2m of 2024 Tr1, with 4.8m undrawn;

(2) Of the total raised by the Shard facilities todate (£ 2985 + 630 + 378 = £ 3993 @1.25 = $ 4,991), approx $ 1,991 covers GLEN loan (net $3,000 approx), and we have a credit balance of about $ 550K (recent proceeds £ 630 + 378 @ 1.25 = $1,270 - 726 loan o/s). Plus the undrawn 4.8m, in case of need.

This gives a net ' SCM admin spend' excl GLEN loan of $2,450 from Jan 21 todate - 42 months = barely $ 60 K per month.

(3) This tight control has been achieved by carefully managing drawings (3 x tranches) and frequency of settlement (weekly, then fortnightly for the latest subscription). Plus cancellation and buy-back rights, etc.

(4) Anecdotally - hat tip alwayshoping - subscription is likely to 'approved counterparts' only, you can imagine that from day 1 Elphick would want to keep track of potential threats to his/GLEN's control. Elsewhere , I've show why I think he's got a handle on 70-80% of share whereabouts, which Jiving deems plausible.

(5) It's inconceivable to me - when ZIOC is on heightened bid alert right now, in case someone tries to make a move - that Elphick would agree SCM's approach , to place 14.4m shares at a 5.25 p lowpoint , having only placed 45m in the previous 3 1/2 years, without wanting to know EXACTLY who the buyers were.

Apart from anything else, Elphick would want to make sure that all/any counterparts were satisfied that there was a level playing field and no-one was being given a head-start.... loan settlement avoids GLEN pressure; GLEN/Elphick share purchase shows no material undisclosed news is being withheld....

(6) I've argued elsewhere that - esp in view of the Garbut/Guava history - it seems most likely that Garbut-linked investors have been approved as subscribers to the SCM facility on an ad hoc/as needed basis ( a slow-mo private placing); and that post GLEN acquisition, a lot of said investors have headroom without breaching the increased 3% limit.

I said at the start * I don't see...

The one scenario where (some at least) of these shares MAY have gone , with Elphick's knowledge and agreement, to Shard would be IF they were being 'rewarded' for efforts and discretion to-date (they haven't earned much so far!) , because the end-game is fast approaching and their services are no longer required.

But that's another ball of wax.

AFAICS

ATB