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All a bit distasteful, but it seems that the Peronist opposition is in disarray atm, following domestic abuse and corruption /influence-peddling accusations levelled agst former President Alberto Fernandez.

Per the FT

.." Argentina’s left-leaning Peronist movement has been engulfed in a scandal that stands to benefit libertarian President Javier Milei and extend public patience for his painful austerity programme.

Federal prosecutors presented domestic violence charges against former president Alberto Fernández on Wednesday, following claims by his ex-wife Fabiola Yañez that he repeatedly beat her while they lived in Argentina’s presidential residence between 2019 and 2023. 

Leaked photos showing Yañez with bruises on her eye and arm have been widely circulated by Argentine media. Yáñez has confirmed their authenticity, though she said she did not want them released.

Prosecutors became aware of the abuse allegations last week while probing separate claims that Fernández had improperly funnelled lucrative state insurance brokering business to a friend while in office..."

Doesn't sit well with the Peronist claims to be champions of gender equality...

All sand in the political gears...

GLA

hi mm,

it took you 6 minutes to reply to a question re the political situation in c-b with a boosterish 'my (unidentified' -but hinted at) sources tell me it's all ok...' and - so far, nearly 24 hours later no comment giving greater support to your claim re a quite important topic.

as chance would have it, yesterday's depeches included this assessment of c-b from the world bank :

.."the experts stressed the inflationary pressure, which remained high at 4.3% last year. the surge in prices of basic necessities follows the withdrawal of fuel and transport subsidies for the transport sector.

the ****tail of inflation, rising debt and economic fragility has had repercussions on the

purchasing power of the population. serious food insecurity now affects 59% [repeat : 59%] of the population,’ said the expert, while widespread poverty persists, with nearly one in two congolese living on less than us$ 2.15 a day..."

these appalling numbers may not affect the strategic investors' interest in investing in c-b, but it would be foolish - imo - to belittle or ignore the identifiable (and identified) country risks that exist and will surely feed through to whatever price they're willing to pay.

you still haven't come back on what i believe to be the 'clincher' argument for zioc vs simandou ie comparative impurities, however two other arguments in any favourable assessment are :

(1) capital intensity

- $ 230 per tonne capital intensity (said to be 4x-5x w australia cost ; 2 x rhodes ridge cost). based on $ 13.8 bn for 60mtpa. simandou is described by management, somewhat defensively, as ‘like an lng project’….

on the same basis, @ $4.7bn for 30mtpa, zioc’s capital intensity is approx. $ 160 per tonne; with possibility of lowering further if e.g. the floating port option is implemented.

(2) strategic port option : while we don't know what the final mineral port shape for zioc might take, we do know that simandou (a) doesn't include a deepwater port at present ; and (b) is identifiably challenged in this respect, needing a work-around barge trans-shipment 'solution' to overcome its very real geographic and geological constraints.

gla

Hi Eddsy,

Ironic that you refer to 'grown-ups', when your own contribution to the discussion board appears limited to remarks that neither add to the sum of human knowledge or human happiness.

Either would be welcome.

GLA

Would that insight be from an 'insider insider' or an 'insider' ?

As recent experience shows, there's a qualitative difference.

ATB

Thanks for this.

Reminding folk of those Simandou comparatives -esp grades and impurities - would help the ZIOC argument.

GLA

A straightforward comparison of ore quality incl impurities Simandou vs ZIOC would likely succinctlymake the point.

Travelli g atm, so can't do it myself

Over to you!

Jiving makes a coherent argument.

You might try addressing it, instead of bluster and threats, which is neither educational nor - in grownups - edifying.

Kicillof's blunder (if it's recognised as such) was to complain that Milei's Govt had decided to award the new LNG plant to a province other than Buenos Aires (his own) and that YPF had meekly followed instructions , as ' the good civil servants that they are'.

BUR's argument before Preska is that a previous Govt (involving Kicillof) had behaved in exactly the same way when it carried out the lop-sided renationalisation/expropriation of YPF, and that YPF was effectively an agency or alter ego of the State....and that its assets were /are therefore 'fair game'.

It's discussed at length here (with Seb as star witness)

hxxps://www.perfil.com/noticias/canal-e/Alerta-estiman-que-los-dichos-de-axel-kicillof-durante-su-rueda-de-prensa-podrian-perjudicar-al-juicio-de-ypf.phtml

Maril went on to say: "The embargo process includes trying to prove that YPF and the Argentine Republic are the same, that is, they act as the same, they influence each other". He went on to say that, "a judge has to decide that, and what Kicillof said about YPF executives being Javier Milei's public officials doesn't help much".

Argentina seeks to prove to the judge that Argentina and YPF are not the same thing

"This hurts Argentina because Kicillof is a person who is a primary source of information because of his history with YPF, and he is also revealing something that the Argentine Republic is trying to disassociate", said the interviewee, who then added: "Argentina is doing its best to show the judge, who is going to decide whether YPF and Argentina are the same, that YPF is a private company that acts with its own board of directors".

On the other hand, the lawyer pointed out: "If it is proven that YPF is Argentina's alter ego, the beneficiaries of the ruling can go against the company's assets to collect the sentence that we are not paying". At the same time, he remarked that, "today they cannot do so, but if it is proven that YPF is Argentina's alter ego, they can seize the oil company's assets and that is why Kicillof's statements are very important for the future of this case".

Finally, Maril said: "The evidence is conclusive of how YPF is used as a ministry of the National Government, when YPF sets prices, the one who really sets prices is the Ministry of Economy, YPF has always been used by the Casa Rosada as a kind of additional ministry".

Seb also covers Christina Kirchner's use of YPF jets for personal travel and the recent shipment of gold to - he specifies - the UK.

He clarifies further that BUR isn't interested in the YPF shares per se (which would be problematic) but in the pressure-point that they represent....to force Argentina, he believes, to the negotiating table.

HTH

If you go to google search and type in "Energy sector

The hunt for Argentina’s ‘alter egos’ in $16bn US court fight"

I'm told that this will bypass the firewall.

DYOR, NAI etc etc

P.S.

This was the earlier, lower-level engagement at MoU level between Bahri and Ma'aden, signed at the Future Minerals Forum back in Jan 2022,

https://www.bahri.sa/en/news-insights/news-insight/2022/bahri-signs-mou-agreement-with-ma-aden-at-future-minerals-forum/

.."One of the world’s largest owners and operators of VLCCs and the Middle East’s one of the largest owners and operator of chemical tankers, Bahri owns and operates a total of 90 vessels, including 42 VLCCs, 33 chemical and product tankers, 6 multipurpose vessels, and 9 dry-bulk carriers..."

It's not clear whether the latter are the same thing as the Very Large Ore Carriers mentioned in the VALE/AD Ports MoU.

ATB

From the Presidential twitter feed

Big Den interrupts his summer break at Oyo to get an update on LMC's project, which has been in the works since 2011 (at least).

It seems they're sufficiently confident of progress to give him an update : expected initial production of 800,000 mtpa starting 2025 > 2,000,000 mtpa by 2027, mainly to be used in fertilizer production in C-B's nascent petrochemicals sector (ENI gas).

Other details (incl local employment) in this earlier clip

https://www.adiac-congo.com/content/industrie-miniere-le-gisement-de-sel-potasse-de-mboukoumassi-sera-en-exploitation-en-2025.

May be of interest to followers of KP2.

.."Not that the current SP makes any difference to the final outcome except, surely, the lower the current SP the lower the final outcome?"

You can't have it both ways : either the market is 'efficient' and the current s/p reflects reality or it isn't, in which case the current s/p is irrelevant.

So you then go to other bases for valuation.

Is it 'worth' NPV? A discount to NPV ? Somewhere between the sellers' aspirations and the buyers' desire for a good deal? The sellers might have a psychological 'anchor' to the IPO price (156p) or to the intraday high (?220p) - as ZIOC was (per Mr Market) 'worth' that a decade ago, in 2014 'money of the day'; in a less developed stage; and before the advent of a sexy green ore premium......

Is ZIOC faced with a monopsony (one buyer) or is there competition ? Do the competitors collude on a (between them) agreed offer price ? Might they double-cross each other in subsequent negotiations?

Lots of permutations, way above any outsiders' comprehension.

'Dinna fash yersel', mon'.

The weekend is upon us.

Enjoy

GLA and ATB

Something I stumbled across on a recent key-word search.

Not directly ZIOC-related, but maybe useful context/connection :

PIF boosts Saudi oil industry with investment in Alkhorayef Petroleum

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2408046/business-economy

.."RIYADH: Oil and gas systems manufacturer Alkhorayef Petroleum has received a financial boost after the Public Investment Fund reached a share subscription agreement with the firm.

This strategic move also involves a capital increase of an undisclosed amount, alongside PIF securing a 25 percent stake in the company.

Parent firm Alkhorayef Group retains 75 percent ownership, according to a press release.

PIF’s move aims to support the growth of promising private sector companies to further develop the industrial ecosystem and increase export revenues.

Alkhorayef Petroleum specializes in oil and gas production optimization solutions, including artificial lift, wireline services and equipment, and early manufacturing facilities.

As the sole Gulf-based manufacturer of electric submersible pumps, a crucial component in oil and gas production, Alkhorayef Petroleum has achieved a diversified revenue base and operational success in 13 countries across the Gulf Cooperation Council, Africa [ Ed.: including Congo-Brazzaville], and Latin America. "

All grist to the mill...

GLA

Hi Catbert,

Thanks for this, which seems more substantive than the 'afterthought' MoU between AD Ports and Vale from May 2023, which spoke loosely of 'collaboration' re Very Large Ore Carriers in the context of VALE's potential Megahub(s) in the Gulf.

https://www.adportsgroup.com/en/news-and-media/2023/05/24/ad-ports-group-and-vale-to-jointly-develop-low-carbon-mega-hubs-for-steel-industry

.."The agreement also includes a maritime collaboration to explore opportunities related to management and operation of very large ore carriers (VLOCs) as well as other possible avenues of partnership..."

The just-announced Bahri/Ma'aden tie-up is a Letter of Intent (weightier in the hierarchy than an MoU) and it's between 2 x PIF-connected investments, so altogether more 'meaningful'.

Interestingly (maybe), it has the public endorsement of the Ministry of Investment.

.."This collaboration, inked in the presence of representatives from the Ministry of Investment, aims to establish business integration opportunities between the two national giants aiming to localize the maritime industries and develop resilient supply chains..."

Interesting because of the timing : the Minister Khalid Al Falih was with Bandar Al Khorayef on the Minister of Industry's recent Brazil/Chile jaunt.

Note, also, the Ministry's role :

.."The Ministry of Investment (MISA) is a government ministry in Saudi Arabia that oversees foreign investment in the country besides issuing licenses to foreign investors.... The ministry is responsible for making IMPROVEMENTS TO INCREASE THE KINGDOM'S COMPETITIVENESS AS AN INVESTMENT DESTINATION, building upon the quality of service and value proposition offered to investors, and offering new investment opportunities to attract businesses and investors alike ..."

The two SOE's already collaborate on fertilizer logistics, they're now looking to broaden the relationship in other areas, keeping other business 'in-house' - see Wilt's comments.

I can't see a negative, from ZIOC's PoV, and this tie-up could well be quite positive aka 'getting one's ducks lined up'.

Better ducks than dots, in any event !

ATB and GLA

SRT's s/p hasn't shown much volatility in the recent market-wide turmoil, perhaps it generates enough of its own ?

Looking at the June 7 trading update, some news ought to be 'imminent' :

- Customer 1 the total project is worth a gross value of £40m, and we have successfully delivered and completed Phase 1 which was worth £16m. Phase 2 is worth £12.5m and Phase 3 worth £11.5m. Phase 1 was completed in 2023, and Phase 2 was expected to commence during the second half of our current financial year. The process of finalisation and award has taken longer than expected due to a combination of the customer amending the exact scope of the project on several occasions along with the required redrafting and internal verification of formal project documentation. However, we are pleased to advise that the scope of Phase 2 has now been formally agreed and confirmed and the customer has advised that they expect the formal documentation and notice to proceed to be issued within the next few weeks.

-With regard to Customer 2, in May 2023 we signed a binding project contract worth £140m to deliver an SRT C5iSR system with a sovereign Coast Guard. Since then, much preparation has taken place, including project planning, surveys, and procurement. The project is financed by an inter-government loan between the UK Export Finance ("UKEF") and the country in question, the framework terms of which were agreed by the parties in early 2023 prior to the project contract. At the time of signing the project contract [Ed.: May 2023] we were advised that such inter-government loans usually take around 6 to 9 months to complete, following a well-worn process and thus we expected completion in early 2024. However, it has become clear that such inter-government interactions, move steadily but slowly according to a defined process. Whilst SRT is not party to this process, we, along with our project customer are passive observers and maintain close contact with the UKEF and the co-lending bank. In March it was indicated to us that the expected completion should be achieved in May however, whilst there has been material recent activity and progress in the documentation finalisation process, with both UK and Customer representatives indicating a June completion target, we feel that it is more realistic to expect completion early in the new financial year...."

We're now mid August....

As the Cindy Crawford Omega Constellation ad has it ...'Just ask yourself, if not now, when?'

GLA and ATB

Hi 99icecream,

Thanks for that infill building block!

Whether it all means anything is anybody's guess...

And even if C-B settles with Sundance, the Cameroon litigation is still live...and, presumably, a hindrance to any serious deal emerging.

ATB

See also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Bs1MNCWuNU

"

2,160 views Jul 26, 2023 #cameroon #port #china

The Kribi Deep Seaport project, in the construction and operation of which a Chinese company participated, is a key project in Cameroon. While building the port, public care was also taken to contribute to the relocation of local populations as well as the employment and work training of the local youth. The completion and operation of the port promoted the economic development of Kribi and even Cameroon. With the commissioning of the port, the development projects of the road, the electricity and the aerial network, as well as other projects in the surrounding areas of the port, have also greatly increased the related demands and stimulated regional development. Xu Huajiang, general manager of the Central Africa Division at China Harbour Engineering Company Ltd (CHEC), who oversaw the construction of the first phase of the port, let us know more about the port..."

The UN's Economic Commission for Africa says

.."This industrial zone aims to becoming a pivotal industrial-port complex in Central Africa. By 2030, it will reach its final phase of construction and will include mining plants and an ore terminal, all served by a railway for better connectivity to regional trade. The ore terminal will have an initial processing capacity of 100 million tonnes, which can be increased to 150 million tonnes. It will facilitate the exploitation of the Mbalam deposit in Cameroon and the Nabeba deposit in the Republic of Congo. The two Governments have already embarked on resources mobilization to build the railway and efficiently exploit the deposit..."

So far it seems that the UN agency is offering expertise, rather than funding - and it's a moot point whether Cameroon (like C-B) meets its governance and transparency requirements over the Mbalam-Nabeba concession. There's clearly something afoot....but how material ?

Tu quote Churchill, it's just " a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.."

GLA

Hi Jiving,

Thanks for this summary of 'where we're at'...and it only took 2 days for your number 5 to show its topicality/relevance !

I look forward to your thoughts re significance (or otherwise ) of Elphick's deck-clearing exercise in due course.

MM has opined , rather cryptically, elsewhere that "Our SP is but temporarily stranded following the Glencore repayment that makes us debt free, but no matter...".

That's somehow reminiscent of 'Tis but a scratch, sire...' ;-<

Until/unless there's further clarification, I'm inclined to give Elphick the benefit of the doubt and argue that he wouldn't have acceded to the SCM 14.4m subscription (= to 30% of the previous total subscriptions) in one fell swoop without a compelling reason (whether good or bad remains to be seen); and that MK may have spoken out of turn but was genuine in his belief that FEED in Q3 was pretty much nailed on.

Equally, I have to say I'm much less inclined to give C-B the benefit of the doubt (on anything) and the Sundance Resources settlement proposal - initiated by C-B (uncharacteristically : they usually fight litigation to the bitter end, with a messy outcome , cf seizure and auction of the Presidential Falcon jet ) - bothers me.

The deadline for settlement ($ quantum unspecified, Sundance 'chancer' (?) claim was for $ 8.4Bn) is - fortuitously or otherwise - end of September 2024.

The resource - Mbalam Nabeba - gets a passing reference in ZIOC's own presentations (as a logistics comparator rail vs slurry); there's some Chinese involvement overlap : 'our ' CMEC hydro is one of 5 x Chinese co's named in the consortium supposedly progressing Mbalam-Nabeba; another is Yantai group, who figured in the post COIDIC offshore floating port solution; and I've never understood (despite repeated approaches, post AD Ports) why Wood McKenzie hasn't modified its declared view that Mbalam-Nabeba was more likely to be developed than Zanaga.

Where will C-B get the money from for any settlement? And why does it want to settle - general housekeeping? I'm wondering whether it's a Plan B for the Chinese in case they don't get Zanaga - for a small (?) settlement, they would get their hands legally on a reasonable resource in an ore-rich complex that straddles the border with Cameroon and have a stepping -stone to land-locked Central African Republic resources); they seem to be progressing slowly on the infrastructure, notably a deepwater port at Kribi, see

April 2024

https://www.uneca.org/stories/eca-and-kribi-deep-sea-port-stepping-up-for-a-partnership-to-develop-a-new-generation

Continued...

An odd edition , today :

(1) Big Den is off (again) in Kazakhstan, to discuss collaboration (= technical assistance) in hydrocarbons (= gas) production; in mapping from space and cybersecurity (maybe he's not comfortable with Huawei ;->?); and explotation of potash, 'near Pointe Noire' as fertilizer (I thought the Chinese already had a lock - direct or via KP2 - on that ?).

(2) Congo is being urged to get its act together to remain compliant with the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), which falls due for review by April 2025.

.."In an attempt to increase its chances of retaining status as an EITI compliant state, Congo has set up a project to support the strengthening of governance in the extractive industries sector in the Republic of Congo "with the support of the French government through Expertise France. "

Over a period of twenty-two months, the project has built the capacities of around two hundred national players who are EITI stakeholders (public administrations, private companies, civil society organisations).

Thanks to funding from the French Solidarity Fund for Innovative Projects

(FSPI), estimated at at EURO 557 K, training workshops were organised for local stakeholders.

The initiative is part of France's cooperation and joint investment initiative to support the Congo in its efforts to improve governance of resources. The completed project

embodies the mutual commitment of France and the Congo to promote the best

world-renowned standards of transparency, accountability and transparency .."

Polishing its public image ?

(3) Meanwhile, AD Ports may have its work cut out, once it's finished its ESG checklist ......

PORT OF POINTE-NOIRE

Port passage costs, a bottleneck

On 31 July, in Brazzaville, the Congolese Shippers' Council presented to members of parliament the results of its comparative study on the costs and time taken for goods passing through ports and transit corridors.

Compared with the ports of Kribi and Douala in Cameroon, the prices charged at the autonomous port of Pointe-Noire are much higher. In addition, there are several public administrations, banks, insurance companies and ministries that levy taxes.

In 2024, two new structures were added, namely the scanner for the inspection of goods

and the Congolese Agency for Standardisation and Quality, extending the penalties, costs and delays for traders......"

I'm reminded that discussing a problem , commissioning reports and passing resolutions isn't necessarily the same as actually doing anything about it.

Ho hum