Member Info for extrader

Meanwhile, a search throws up this connection :

https://www.marketscreener.com/insider/MARTIN-KNAUTH-A3WEQ7/network/

Companies connected to Martin Knauth VIA THEIR PERSONAL NETWORK :

Company Sector Related people Main position

Fortescue Limited Steel John (sic) Forrest Founder

All grist to the (rumour) mill...

GLA

.."principal driver and sponsor.

You read it here first.

GLA

Flwg MM's observation re Fortescue possible interest....

Scroll down for the MK 'connection.

MMO....Means, Motive, Opportunity.

'Twiggy' has the Means : May have slipped from 'Australia's Richest'...but still worth an est. US$ 15 billion. Enough for him to have put in a 'failed bid' of US$ 9 + billion for (part) Simandou (lost because he didn't want to take on the complex logistics).

He has the Motive : He's committed to 'green steel' both for ideological reasons (he's a committed environmentalist and has been pursuing the massive Inga Dam project for years (hydropower for half the Continent, theoretically), an ambition that he's only recently given up, in the wake of political and other foot-dragging by the DRC.

He's well-connected to China (major market) and recently hosted the Chinese Premier, to tour his experimental (2, 500 tpa) $ 50m facility in Australia.

https://fortescue.com/news-and-media/news/2024/06/18/fortescue-welcomes-chinese-premier-li-qiang-in-perth.

He's got to juggle domestic politics in Australia and his existing 'legacy' Pilbara rust interests with a future that may lie increasingly outside Oz.

He's already hedged his bets somewhat at Belinga, Gabon; has Brazilian interests (Port Acu) that he's keen to expand, playing footsie with Pres Lula.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/fortescue-billionaire-forrest-has-vowed-to-spend-5bn-on-brazilian-green-hydrogen-and-ammonia-project-president-lula/2-1-1553687

The juggling of these competing/conflicting priorities FMG faces is reflected in this recent article :

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/australia-s-iron-ore-future-is-different-not-dead-20240828

Australia’s iron ore future is different, not dead

.."There’s plenty of red dirt in Fortescue’s results presentation – which makes it a bit different to its two big rivals. Andrew Forrest is in China trying to work it out.

As our two biggest iron ore exporters dress themselves up as future-facing copper companies, third force Fortescue has nowhere to hide. In fact, it does not even want to.

Fortescue’s future is firmly Pilbara iron ore. It will spend $US4 billion ($5.9 billion) this year developing hubs and mines, exploration and trying to decarbonise its operations, mostly focused on iron ore...."

Opportunity : ZIOC would present a useful step-change in any transition to a more global business, perhaps working with Vale (another frustrated Simandou bidder) and the Chinese (whose interest is the product, not the provenance), all the while boosting C-B's own 'green' credentials/ambitions.

The resource has comparable scale (and, arguably, better quality ore), without (thanks to slurry pipeline) any of the logistics headaches of Simandou.

All well and good.

The clincher for me in any recent resurgence of interest is that he shares his fellow Australian MK's passion for rugby,

see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Rapid_Rugby,

where he was principal 'driver' and s

MMO....Means, Motive, Opportunity.

'Twiggy' has the Means : May have slipped from 'Australia's Richest'...but still worth an est. US$ 15 billion. Enough for him to have put in a 'failed bid' of US$ 9 + billion for (part) Simandou (lost because he didn't want to take on the complex logistics).

He has the Motive : He's committed to 'green steel' both for ideological reasons (he's a committed environmentalist and has been pursuing the massive Inga Dam project for years (hydropower for half the Continent, theoretically), an ambition that he's only recently given up, in the wake of political and other foot-dragging by the DRC.

He's well-connected to China (major market) and recently hosted the Chinese Premier, to tour his experimental (2, 500 tpa) $ 50m facility in Australia.

https://fortescue.com/news-and-media/news/2024/06/18/fortescue-welcomes-chinese-premier-li-qiang-in-perth.

He's got to juggle domestic politics in Australia and his existing 'legacy' Pilbara rust interests with a future that may lie increasingly outside Oz.

He's already hedged his bets somewhat at Belinga, Gabon; has Brazilian interests (Port Acu) that he's keen to expand, playing footsie with Pres Lula.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/fortescue-billionaire-forrest-has-vowed-to-spend-5bn-on-brazilian-green-hydrogen-and-ammonia-project-president-lula/2-1-1553687

The juggling of these competing/conflicting priorities FMG faces is reflected in this recent article :

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/australia-s-iron-ore-future-is-different-not-dead-20240828

Australia’s iron ore future is different, not dead

.."There’s plenty of red dirt in Fortescue’s results presentation – which makes it a bit different to its two big rivals. Andrew Forrest is in China trying to work it out.

As our two biggest iron ore exporters dress themselves up as future-facing copper companies, third force Fortescue has nowhere to hide. In fact, it does not even want to.

Fortescue’s future is firmly Pilbara iron ore. It will spend $US4 billion ($5.9 billion) this year developing hubs and mines, exploration and trying to decarbonise its operations, mostly focused on iron ore...."

Opportunity : ZIOC would present a useful step-change in any transition to a more global business, perhaps working with Vale (another frustrated Simandou bidder) and the Chinese (whose interest is the product, not the provenance), all the while boosting C-B's own 'green' credentials/ambitions.

The resource has scale , without (thanks to slurry pipeline) none of the logistics headaches of Simandou.

All well and good.

The clincher for me in any recent resurgence of interest is that he shares his fellow Australian MK's passion for rugby, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Rapid_Rugby,

where he was principal 'driver' and sponsor....

You read it here first.

GLA

The RNS also suggests that both Elphick and GLEN approve of MK's performance, by implication endorsing his actions and comments (including timeline in the contentious 'HR' interview)....

Note also further tidying up of options , with only 6.9m o/s.

These appear to date back to awards 6,8 and 9 of 2014 (reported in the 2023 A/R were 6.15m, curiously with an expiry of 29 July 2024, maybe extended ?).

On that score , there are also 1.6m issued to a consultant in 2014, vested and exerciseable @ 18.5 p...and the Country Manager's recent 3m award, exerciseable at a less challenging 7.5p.

AFAICS, feel free to amend, correct, qualify , add etc.

GLA

Thanks for this timeline and the conclusion seems reasonable/realistic.

(1)If you go to the same podcast link, the timeline stated by MK actually improves at around min 32:00

..."Currently tying up a series of partnerships (technical/financial) to support FEED.

FEED phase commencement LATE 3RD QUARTER 2024 duration c. 15mths.

Financial investment/construction decision middle 2026, etc...

(2) What can you share to firm up the 'Korea' leg of the roadshow, pls?

TIA

...and GLA

And Seb latest

.."All of what we are experiencing as a country (email and WhatsApp requests from officials and executives, embargoes, Alter Ego, delivery of YPF shares) could have been avoided last January, following Preska's recommendations. By depositing a guarantee, which did not have to be equal to the amount of the ruling, the country could appeal without these surprises.

President Milei has made a U-turn (I applaud him) in everything: economy, society, foreign policy, etc. The only thing he has maintained the same policy as previous governments is the issue of lawsuits against the State. In my opinion, it is a mistake. There is still time to correct it..."

GLA

What a bizarre post!

It’s odd – to say the least – to think of time one's spent following an investment as a noble sacrifice (‘giving up their Bank Holiday weekend’ – really?)…or to describe a subsequent write-up as a ‘donation’…. as something to be graciously shared with one’s grateful ‘underlings’, perhaps?

What other explanation can there be for such petulance?

It’s not the role of (most) folk here to post with the stated purpose of ‘driving fresh investment from PI’s’. Perhaps you think it’s yours?

Perhaps you would prefer us/them to be more proactive, like “ whoever might have had the smarts to get in touch with Marty, and perform an awesome IR/PR function. You know, detail the USPs that the market wants to hear.”

The clear inference is that this was you. If so, I can understand your frustration that this initiative subsequently back-fired.

For which - again, bizarrely - you prefer to blame P/I's.....

From your ‘..get them while you can’ post of 24 June 2024. S/price : 5.10p

+++++

Meanwhile, you seem equally confused as to who played what role in the subscription debacle, which you’ve said variously was ZIOC-instigated and SCM-driven – which is it?

..” Monday 1st, ZIOC instigate and Shard subscribe for T3”..(your post 3 July 1540)

..” In other words Shard had already committed to sell 14.4m shares , being T3 and then some on the then unannounced [Ed.: actually : UNAUTHORISED by ZIOC] 2024 ESA…” (your post 3 July 1541)

+++++

Whatever. You seem happy enough for the s/p to languish under certain circs :

..” 'Certain people need to get in to a certain level and at a certain price before any notifiable events happen? Maybe'.

Rewind to the 1st July when Shard GIFTED a total of 19,184,515 shares to their CRONIES plus Glencore and our very own Clifford Elphick”… your post 22 Aug 2024 0747. S/price 5.20p

And in the same vein

..” From my conversations, both now and historically, I very much doubt that they went to existing or legacy holders. For me it's a racing certainty that they went to spivvy mates of Shard…” 22 July 10:48 . S / price 5.25p

Pls explain why you think ZIOC – in CONTROL of the PHASED RELEASE subscription programme - colluded in this behaviour, which was (excessively) dilutive to shareholders – and far more damaging to the s/p performance than anything a PI might post or do.

Why is your continual refrain and focus on something we as PI’s haven’t- in your view- done (enough of) i.e. buy more shares ?

That’s a rhetorical question, btw.

Suggest you take a deep breath and re-direct your evident frustration and blame towards more appropriate actors, whilst we await developments.

GLA

Argentina

Exports have seen significant growth, with fuel and energy exports rising by 42%, agricultural manufacturing increasing by 29%, and primary products up by 20%. Petroleum exports have been particularly strong, with a 65% increase in 2024 year-to-date compared with the same period in 2023. On the other hand, imports have declined, with fuel imports down by 34%, capital goods by 24%, and intermediate goods by 17%.

GLA

Meanwhile, I read elsewhere a WB report 2023 that said only 50pct of the population have access to electricity (unreliable), ranging from 12% rural to 65% in urban areas.

Imagine living in a town or city without the benefit of electricity....

Pretty dire.

GLA

Hi Vet10,

Fair points.

Today's FT headline suggests there's some 'animal spirits' still out there :

Mining bosses issue M&A warning as forecasts of dealmaking boom mount

Snippets :

The profile of BHP includes the sentence:

'Strategic considerations :

'Unified dual corporate structure to facilitate M & A.

'Seeking copper, high grade iron ore and potash growth.'

And although talking about copper,

Even specialist miners, such as gold producers Newmont and Barrick Gold, want the red metal, fuelling speculation that the world’s biggest copper producers, including the Canadian trio of Teck, First Quantum and Capstone Copper, are now the main targets for predators.

.."Competition for other commodities, such as precious metals, iron ore and coal, is expected to increase too..." according to Farid Dadashev, head of Emea metals and mining at RBC, who saw “robust fundamentals for mining M&A in the next 12-18 months”.

The positive reaction to deals from investors was likely to help fuel M&A, he added. “We expect to see boards increasingly regard M&A as an avenue to unlock future value.”

You know what they say about opinions...?

:->

ATB

Hi Eddsy,

You don't learn, do you ? Read again about transference and projection and ask yourself : who on these boards seeks 'followers' and 'underlings'? It ain't me, babe...

Look up 'alter ego', whilst you're at it.

Having stooped-exceptionally- to your level, I'll now make the case why I think things aren't that bad ...and do in fact seem to be drawing to a resolution of sorts. Whether as rewarding as the starry-eyed amongst us (no names, no pack-drill) believe is another matter, but a resolution all the same .

In no particular ranking :

(1) MK's 'bizarre' HR interview and seeming confidence re FEED resolution 'by Q3'. His demeanour (and career path) isn't that of a smooth-talking politician salesman, but of a practical 'nuts and bolts' guy. He might mislead by omission, but not - I think - by commission, ie deliberately.

That suggests that something is afoot, so a positive, IMO. How substantial remains to be seen.

(2) The rushed/oversize SCM subscription issue, which raised far more cash than ZIOC's historic run-rate requires (see my 21 Aug : .."On 29 Sept 2023, we're told that SCM 1 is fully subscribed and that NEW FACILITY SCM 2 will suffice for WCF through 'into Q3 2024', assuming GLEN loan extension..").

Expenses - current and foreseen - are rising suddenly, but the new facility continues with weekly/fortnightly settling up, suggesting it will only be used for as long as needed, and no further.

A second positive, absent any contrary interpretation (Eddsy?)

(3) The manner of settlement of the GLEN loan facility (the settlement itself a positive, as a likely pre-condition/deck-clearing for any corporate activity) :

- Elphick and GLEN both elected to subscribe, I believe both had to, to signal support and unity of approach; also to avoid the full dilutive effect of the SCM 14.3m subscription AND TO RESTORE THE APPROX 28% (27.9%) RATIO ELPHICK:GLEN SHAREHOLDINGS AT THE NOV 22 CORPORATE ACTION : Elphick's shareholding has been passively rising since then, thanks to his 2.17m BoD compensation Oct 23. Unaddressed the ratio would have been 27.9 > 28.9%

So he partakes only a token 300K shares, GLEN takes a disproportionate 4.5m, the Elphick : GLEN shareholding ratio falls to 28.4%. BTW, this is Elphick's first ever cash outlay AFAICS.

Just a theory, but consistent with Jiving's harking back to the earlier Xstrata/ZIOC 'rules of engagement'. So another positive, IMO.

(4) The frustrating, seemingly 'managed' flatlining share price : several have commented to this effect. If truly being managed, it's for a reason....or a number of reasons.

Hard to think of any that wouldn't be positive.

(5) MM's Korea / MK and SP(s)'s 'squaring off Congo' claims. Absent supporting evidence, difficult to attribute any significance.

So, overall positive, AFAICS.

Feel free to comment - and rebut! - esp. with supporting arguments.

Looking at you, Eddsy.

GLA

GLA

More constructively, Eddsy, you could make a positive contribution re 'the case for' , as I'll be doing later today when free.

We can then compare (and contrast) notes.

Though I doubt you're actually up to the challenge, personally.

See you later.

Last time I looked, these are 'discussion' boards.

SYME has a new product / concept that (as an investor and former banker), I'm interested in 'discussing'.

I've intermittently joined the 'discussion' when I disagree with a comment or it's factually incorrect.

I've never had a financial interest - either way- in SYME (the duplicity at time of RTO was enough for me), so have no 'confirmation ' bias.

I had to look up your cultural reference, thanks for the educational opportunity.

Now tell me a little about your background and why (a) you're so defensive and (b) had to re-invent yourself.

'I've shown you mine...'

Well, at least I'm consistent, open and honest in my (infrequent) comments , with nothing to hide - unlike someone who's had to re-invent themselves 4 days ago.

".. this is UNSECURED lending through a market tokenisation platform..."

and people wonder why funders have been slow to step up to the plate ?

.."Falcon purchases from and pays the client upfront and provides extended terms to end customer..."

So Falcon is acting as physical principal between seller (inventory 'owner') and buyer (end-purchaser), having a credit relationship with the latter.

SYME's stockco has an accounting relationship with the principal's inventory and (under normal circs) leaves any commercial relationship with the buyer to the seller.

Appears to be a case of comparing chalk and (Italian) cheese, AFAICS.

It's not just your and my opinions - 2 x onlookers - but the aggregate view of EVERY prospective customer that SYME has ever canvassed, none of whom AFAICS has been sufficiently convinced of the relative commercial benefit to be willing to run the accounting / tax treatment risk.

Why has no-one, going back to those pilot studies in 2016/7, yet taken the plunge?

'If you build a better mousetrap, etc...'

Surely?

ATB

The Presidential twitter feed has been regaling the nation the last 3 days with clips of Big Den entertaining his guest, former President Obasanjo of Nigeria, on a tour of his (DSN's ) farms in Oyo - beef, ostrich, chicken, dairy products - apparently a shared interest.

I doubt this will play well with the 59% of the Congolese population that faces 'serious food insecurity' per the World Bank recent report, while "rising debt and economic fragility means widespread poverty persists, with nearly one in two Congolese living on less than us$ 2.15 a day..."

OTOH, if you're starting from a low base , a little social investment by a Strategic Partner would probably make a big difference.

GLA

The Presidential twitter feed has been regaling the nation the last 3 days with clips of Big Den entertaining his guest, former President Obasanjo of Nigeria, on a tour of his (DSN's ) farms in Oyo - beef, ostrich, chicken, dairy products - apparently a shared interest.

I doubt this will play well with the 59% of the Congolese population that faces 'serious food insecurity' per the World Bank recent report, while "rising debt and economic fragility means widespread poverty persists, with nearly one in two Congolese living on less than us$ 2.15 a day..."

OTOH, if you're starting from a low base , a little social investment by a Strategic Partner would probably make a big difference.

GLA