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Depeches today...

Port news...but not OUR port (P-N). Instead, news re DP World and Banana, in DRC.

.."This project for the Republic's first port in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),

awarded to DP World in 2018, has gone through several stages and is now taking shape with the construction phase. They are being built at Banana, near Moanda, in the

in the province of Central Kongo key to strengthening the country's access to international markets and global supply chains. The project, the result of a collaboration agreement signed with the Emirati Group DP World in 2018, is of strategic importance for

the country, in terms of direct access to international markets and

strengthening its commercial sovereignty. It will give the DRC its own deep-water port,

like its neighbours, and will give it sovereignty over its trade.

The port complex will be developed in four phases and will require a total investment of US$1.2 billion. The first phase of the project will cost 350 million dollars consists of building a

600 m quay and 25 hectares of storage space for an annual capacity of 322,000 containers.

This first phase should be be completed by 2025, according to initial estimates. A revision of the initial agreement in 2021 incorporated substantial modifications reflecting changing needs and agreements between the parties...."

Main article on front page is about the football (for you, Eddsy).

Unlike C-B/ depeches to miss a 'good news' story (esp of the magnitude of AD Ports' commitment to P-N), I wonder if they haven't been told how to handle it ?

GLA

Great find !

(1) ZPMC has been working with AD Ports for some time.

2011 - https://www.adports.ae/march-of-the-cranes/

(2) ZPMC has been working with Vale in Oman* for some time.

From 8 years ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCq0RkH5GLY

.."5 Mar 2016

IRON ORE is being unloaded from a ship to a hopper at Vale Oman. For the unloading of iron ore, a ZPMC unloading is being used combined with one of our scissors grabs. A Nemag Scissors grab is specifically suited for the large-scale handling of coal, ore, minerals, biomass, concentrates and bauxite. ..."

(3) ZPMC has supplied approx 80% of the port cranes in the US...and there are currently concerns about some of the recently discovered embedded bits of communication kit for which there's no explanation.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/07/politics/congressional-probe-communications-gear-chinese-cranes/index.html

* In another maybe relevant development, Vale is divesting part of its Oman operations to Apollo Fund Management, see

https://www.muscatdaily.com/2024/08/07/vale-sells-50-stake-in-its-oman-distribution-centre/

Per wiki, Apollo is 'an American asset management firm that primarily invests in alternative assets. As of 2022, the company had $548 billion of assets under management, including $392 billion invested in credit, including mezzanine capital, hedge funds, non-performing loans, and collateralized loan obligations, $99 billion invested in private equity, and $46.2 billion invested in real assets, which includes real estate and infrastructure. The company invests money on behalf of pension funds, financial endowments, and sovereign wealth funds, as well as other institutional and individual investors..."

Vale has signed a binding agreement with Apollo for a 50% equity stake in Vale Oman Distribution Centre (VODC) for US$600mn.

VODC operates a maritime terminal in Sohar Industrial Port, featuring a large deep-water jetty and an integrated blending and distribution center with a nominal capacity of 40mn tonnes per year (Mtpy).

Vale wants to 'optimise capital allocation through an asset-light operating model'...and 'will retain 100% ownership and control of Vale Oman Pelletizing Company (VOPC), which plays a crucial role in the production of high-quality iron ore pellets used in steel production and other industries, such as construction, manufacturing and technology.'

This suggests that Vale's contribution to any ZIOC deal would more likely be management and technology transfer (aka 'handholding') rather than anything capital-intensive.

(4) Meanwhile, note that Mubadala is using Apollo to source some of its investments:

https://english.alarabiya.net/business/economy/2023/01/05/Abu-Dhabi-s-Mubadala-taps-Apollo-ties-for-2-5-bln-global-private-credit-plan

.."Mubadala formed a joint venture to lend about $2.5 billion.. through a private credit platform that will leverage the Abu Dhabi wealth fund’s partnership with Apollo Global Management...".

GLA

Involves African oil-trading.

Not in C-B, thankfully, but timing isn't helpful...unless GLEN decides to 'do a Trafigura' and try to get ahead of the curve with a 'good news in Africa' story.

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/glencore-billionaire-alex-beard-appears-at-uk-court-accused-of-corruption-2024-09-10

GLA

And today brings news that 'Twiggy' Forrest's private investment vehicle Wyloo will be a major player in a fundraise for Greatland Gold, see

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1055796/greatland-confirms-havieron-and-telfer-takeover-talks-backed-by-wyloo-billionaire-forrest-1055796.html

This earlier article, describing Wyloo's initial 'gate-crash' of a Newcrest GGP party, suggests he's not averse to pulling a flanker - or (last para) some corporate blackmail (or should that be 'green-mail' ?)

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/forrest-dives-into-another-mining-merger-hotspot-20220912

..."Wyloo’s likely emergence as the biggest shareholder in Greatland is unlikely to be welcomed by Newcrest, given Wyloo has a habit of complicating big miners’ attempts to acquire juniors.

Wyloo’s strong bidding for Canadian nickel explorer Noront last year eventually convinced BHP to give up its long pursuit of the junior.

Wyloo was also a stone in the shoe of IGO over the past year as it sought to acquire nickel miner Western Areas.

Wyloo conspicuously bought Western Areas shares on market at prices that were higher than the IGO offer price, fuelling expectations of a rival bid and ultimately contributing to IGO’s decision to raise its offer by 15 per cent.

Before it agreed to support IGO’s takeover bid for Western Areas, Wyloo struck a deal with IGO that will give Wyloo a stake in any future nickel refinery that IGO builds in Australia...."

With that background, maybe his Belinga Gabon venture is another diversionary tactic ?

Certainly MM (where he, btw?) questioned the rationale//economics of THAT project...

GLA

Interesting that AlKhorayef should - apparently - be a mouthpiece for official acknowledgement of a potential policy shift that has been discussed mostly by outside observers so far.

https://www.semafor.com/article/09/09/2024/to-woo-china-saudi-arabia-may-accept-yuan-for-oil?

.."Saudi Arabian officials expressed willingness to accept the Chinese yuan as payment for crude oil ahead of Premier Li Qiang’s visit to the kingdom on Sept. 9, as Saudi seeks to deepen ties with China to help its economy diversify from oil.

In an interview in Hong Kong, Bandar Alkhorayef, the Saudi minister of industry and mineral resources, said that the kingdom “is open to new ideas,” and would “try not to mix politics with commerce,” a tacit reference to the antagonism between China and the US, Saudi’s long-standing ally..."

In ZIOC's case, this 'politics vs commerce' issue is front and centre and Saudi (and/or the UAE, which appears to have a similar desire for non-alignment) has a tricky balancing act to follow, AFAICS.

As LBJ famously said when dealing with another awkward situation (J Edgar Hoover), "I'd rather have people inside my tent p*ssing out than outside my tent p*ssing in."

As broadly-based a consortium as possible would appear the likely outcome of any Saudi (or UAE, for that matter)-based Strategic Partnership.

Let's see if Premier Li's visit brings anything to light.

GLA

Worth noting that this project (which includes Ad Ports), has progressed from non-binding MoU in July 2023 ; to an FID barely 6 months later

https://www.meed.com/abu-dhabi-to-reach-green-iron-investment-decision

and to production sometime in 2027.

"AD Ports will be responsible for providing the LAND for new plant in Kezad Musaffah, as well as offering maritime and LOGISTICS services for the supply of iron ore and the EXPORT of low-carbon emission raw materials around the world."

Which brings us neatly back to the VLOCs - Very Large Ore Carriers - that AD Ports has been discussing - at MoU level - with Vale....

https://www.gulftoday.ae/business/2023/05/24/ad-ports-and-vale-to-develop-mega--hubs-for-steel-industry-in-abu-dhabi

.."The agreement also includes a maritime collaboration to explore opportunities related to the management and operation of very large ore carriers (VLOCs) and other possible avenues of partnership...".

All wheels within wheels...

GLA

And, continuing the connections and alternative players theme, Itochu* has committed to move forward with its planned AbuDhabi Arkan steel project, albeit with feedstock ex Vale's CSN mine.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2581242-itochu-esa-to-produce-direct-reduced-iron-in-abu-dhabi

About 2.5 million tpa DRI...

Itochu figures alongside Trafigura and 'Twiggy' Forrest and Vale in the 'ammonia as marine fuel' initiative...Trafigura ordering 5 x vessels from HD Hyundai.

Quite a gathering of 'interested' bedfellows.

GLA

"Your not invested so why get your knickers in a twist over something that’s got nothing to do

With you."

https://ericberne.com/games-people-play/why-dont-you-yes-but/

Well worth a read. There are quite a few o this board playing one 'game ' or another , IMO.

HTH

Seb's assessment :

.."My view on this matter: The U.S. is likely to recommend that Judge Preska refrain from ordering the transfer of YPF shares to the judgment beneficiaries, taking into account the relationship between two allied nations. However, I also believe that the U.S. fully understands that a friendly sovereign nation (Argentina) violated local capital market laws.

For this reason, I wouldn’t be surprised if they also suggest that Judge Loretta Preska appoint a Special Master (mediator) to help both parties resolve the dispute..."

Seb talking his (negotiation, carajo!) book...

;->

Preceded by

The US Government asks Judge Loretta Preska NOT to publish her decision on the delivery of YPF shares to the beneficiaries of the ruling. The US Department of Justice asks that an opinion be submitted by November 6, the day after the presidential elections.

And followed by lots of BTL comments and Trump emojis...

FWLIW

GLA

Just in 10 mins ago

Sebastian Maril

@SebastianMaril

🔴The US Department of Justice writes to inform the Court that the United States of America’s potential participation in the Turnover Motion related to the YPF Expropriation Case. The United States expects that it will be in a position to inform the Court of its potential participation in this matter, and to file its Statement of Interest should it be authorized to do so, no later than November 6, 2024, the day after the US elections.

This potato's too hot to handle...

GLA

Today's depeches

(1) "PORT INFRASTRUCTURE -PAPN aims to handle two million containers a year

The Autonomous Port of Pointe-Noire (PAPN), the gateway to Central Africa , serving most of the shipping lines in Europe, Asia and and America, thanks to its undeniable geographical position, aims to handle 2 million containers a year.[Ed.: up from current 1m TEU's pa].

This vision incorporates the reforms undertaken by the government to enable this infrastructure to generate the dividends needed to finance the development of

the country's economy. .."

A bit of a word-salad, followed by a half-page article about the Minister's port visit.

He saw some whales and dolphins.

AD Ports wasn't mentioned, either explicitly or implicitly.

(2) The CFA Treasury markets oversight committee meets, says " it intend to speed up reforms

, including the adoption of a code of ethics and professional conduct..."

Its Chair says reassuringly :

.."Congo's issues are doing well

The Cémac treasury securities market market is continuing to develop, we are assured, through the implementation of strategies and non-accumulation of arrears, the implementation of national financial education plans, communication with market players and institutional investors, the introduction of single Treasury accounts, building up cash

cushions and the systematic compliance with annual cash flow plans.

When asked about the market situation of the Congolese Treasury, Raymond Yoka Ikama addressed the impact of the ‘payment default ' referred to by the Director General.

'Statistics from the Central Bank show that Congo's issues are doing well , he said, even in terms of auction results.

These are operational issues that arise and this happens in almost all issuers.

There is nothing alarming that suggests that the Congolese Treasury market might come to a halt,’ he said."

For some reason, Emerson's quote springs to mind :

“The louder he talked of his honour, the faster we counted our spoons.”

Ho hum

GLA

"..Failing to return shares you might as well be saying AZ sold shares in SYME but did it via TAG to avoid insider trading rules........"

Some might say that, I couldn't possibly comment.

AZ needs to explain why the loans included :

(1) an (unusual) provision that the 3 x loanco's were (explicitly) allowed to trade the shares held as security ("to diversify their portfolio concentration risks." ....Que ??); and

(2) retroactive notification - several months later, almost as an afterthought in another RNS - of the availability of a 'cash alternative' settlement option.

We've already seen (my 5 Sept post) that SYME BoD have endorsed AZ's misleading statements to shareholders over the intended UTILISATION of the monies raised - we were told - in writing - to support SYME IM transactions....NOT to pay for TAG's call option.

Have you asked AZ - and the SYME Board, esp the NEDS - to clarify all 3 points ?

If not, why not?

And today brings some FOCAC-related feedback (caveat : consider the source, Voice of America):

https://www.malaysiasun.com/news/274564877/chinas-new-pledges-reflect-concern-over-its-competition-in-africa

.."For some time, China has been seen to be moving away from the massive infrastructure projects of the early years of Xi's trademark Belt and Road Initiative and toward what it has dubbed "small is beautiful projects."

Some of the announcements made at FOCAC, however, surprised analysts by bucking that trend.

Xi announced China would be undertaking a $1 billion upgrade of the TAZARA railway, which will link mineral-rich, landlocked Zambia with Tanzania's coast. He signed an agreement with the presidents of those two countries on Wednesday.

There was already a sense that infrastructure would be one of those asks that would not be entertained by the Chinese side, so I think that has come as a bit of a surprise," Paul Nantulya, a research associate with the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, told VOA.

"I think African countries were also quite concerned about infrastructure financing. ... Now it seems like the Chinese side may have finally backed down," said Nantulya, who was in Beijing for FOCAC. "That would indicate that China does not want to be locked out of the infrastructure game, given what the U.S. is doing with the Lobito Corridor.

As the first big infrastructure project in Africa the U.S. has undertaken in a generation, Washington recently announced it could extend the railway to Tanzania and on to the Indian Ocean.

"China's offer to refurbish the TAZARA railway connecting copper-rich Zambia with Tanzania on Africa's eastern coast appears to be a direct answer to the Western-led Lobito Corridor," said Engel of Boston University.

"You know, the African delegates are very mindful of the fact that one of the big criticisms of FOCAC is that it's very high on pledges and very low on actual concrete tasks."

I think what's interesting to note about them is this very striking emphasis on areas of technological cooperation - in industry, in agriculture, in science and technology," she said.

"There's a lot of emphasis on training and initiatives that would support knowledge transfer from China to African parties, and I think this is something that's been very much an African demand for many years," she added.

Footnote : The Lobito/Tazara head-to-head is one of the first tangible consequences of the US Strategic Competition Act, 2001, passed with bipartisan support...

On the debt relief front, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/china-stops-short-of-africa-debt-relief-as-pledges-more-cash

"Success was less clear-cut for countries owing a large share of their debt to China, which made no express offer of assistance to those struggling with repayments"....instead inviting other creditors to participate.

GLA

PS

Oh, joy!

And now I see that there’s another overlap - ‘things green’ (other than the Big Den/Lula bromance)

(1)‘Twiggy’ Forrest and Mubadala

Fortescue expects initial license for Brazil green hydrogen project by September - MINING.COM

The port of Acu is part of the Prumo Logistica Group, which is owned 60/40 by EIG and Mubadala…

Fortescue and EIG-Backed Companies Sign MoU to Explore Joint Development of Green Hydrogen Plant in Brazil | Business Wire

(2) ‘Twiggy’ Forrest and Trafigura (and AngloAmerican….and Itochu….and Vale…)

Trafigura : joins cross industry study into the adoption of green ammonia as an alternative marine fuel - MarketScreener

Fortescue’s dual-fuelled ammonia-powered vessel, The Green Pioneer, named a winner at World Hydrogen 2024 Awards in Rotterdam | Fortescue

Fortescue Future Industries duel-fuel ammonia to power ships

Trafigura Joins Pioneers Ordering Ammonia-Fueled Vessels from HD Hyundai (maritime-executive.com)

Bing tells me that

.."Fortescue Metals Group and Trafigura have a strategic partnership that focuses on the trading and supply of iron ore. Here are some key aspects of their collaboration:

1. Iron Ore Trading: Trafigura, being a major commodity trading company, helps Fortescue in distributing its iron ore to various global markets. This partnership allows Fortescue to leverage Trafigura’s extensive trading network and expertise.

2. Supply Chain Optimization: The collaboration aims to optimize the supply chain for iron ore, ensuring efficient and timely delivery to customers. This involves coordinating logistics, shipping, and storage solutions.

3. Market Expansion: Through this partnership, Fortescue can expand its market reach, accessing new customers and regions that Trafigura has a presence in. This is particularly beneficial for Fortescue as it seeks to diversify its customer base.

4. Sustainability Initiatives: Both companies are committed to sustainability and have explored opportunities to reduce the carbon footprint of their operations. This includes looking into cleaner shipping methods and more sustainable mining practices.

Their collaboration is a strategic move to enhance both companies’ positions in the global iron ore market..."

GLA and ATB

Continued...

Neither Mubadala nor Trafigura appear to have much interaction with Vale.

Vale has a new relationship with Saudi PIF / Maaden/Manara Minerals via its Base Minerals (VBM) division but is, relatively speaking ‘the new kid on the block’.

GLEN has a ‘transactional’ business relationship with Vale (bought out its share of MRN bauxite mine; potential J/V to ‘unitise’ the ex Inco nickel resource in Canada); on the Gulf SWF side of things, it has local black sheep Qatar as a major shareholder (which may be a negative on its own), but no substantive relationship AFAICS with either Abu Dhabi or Saudi……and may indeed have ticked off Saudi somewhat over the ZIOC OFFTAKE issue.

++++++++

On the face of it, Trafigura has more to offer most of the likely Strategic Investors and Partners than GLEN – just as ‘Abu Dhabi Inc’ has more to offer than Saudi /PIF/Maaden - and perhaps has better working relationships with some of them than does GLEN.

Trafigura and GLEN appear to have similar challenges/opportunities with C-B; Trafigura (with Lobito) seems ahead of GLEN on the PR front, as the ‘poster child’ for a new US (China-challenging) approach to investment in Africa; meanwhile, AD Ports continues its ‘masterly inactivity’ as placeholder at Pointe Noire.

GLEN can always walk away with the ‘consolation prize’ of its Royalty %age…..which may have been negotiated precisely because – for all the talk - this would be its preferred outcome.

Corrections/comments/clarifications welcome!

GLA

Continued...

The opening link included a bullish Trafigura trading update, with growth ‘ driven by an increase in iron ore trading volumes, due to more trades from Australia and India, as well as higher throughput at the Porto Sudeste port in Brazil, it said in June.

Trafigura is looking to sell the Porto Sudeste port, WHICH IT CO-OWNS WITH MUBADALA CAPITAL.'

It appears that AbuDhabi has more LOGISTICS expertise than I’d realised– both in iron ore mining and port operations :

Mubadala, Trafigura hire banks to sell Brazil port, sources say (gulfbusiness.com)

And, of course, it also already has relevant mining experience in Africa :

hxxps://gulfbusiness.com/mubadala-guinea-sign-5bn-deal-for-bauxite-alumina-refinery

And it’s big/well-connected in Brazil : UAE’s Mubadala Capital plans $13.5bn investment in Brazil’s biofuel sector (arabnews.com)

Which conveniently ties in with ‘interventionist’ President Lula’s ‘green’ ambitions…..

Petrobras shares plunge as Brazil's Lula swaps CEO, CFO | Reuters

This the same Lula who in an earlier Presidency ‘nudged’ Vale into its Simandou adventure…….

++++++++

Meanwhile, Trafigura has been trying to ‘win friends and influence people’, closer to home , with its US co-funded Lobito Corridor rail project…and now its potential 800 Km TransAfrica greenfield extension to the Indian Ocean.

Lots of detail re the US-led funding consortium, incl EU, Africa Development Bank and Africa Finance Corp…and how it’s different from the Chinese exploitative/extractive, debt-burden model, here

Digital Press Briefing: Lobito Corridor Expansion and U.S. Infrastructure on the African Continent - United States Department of State

Continued...

I’m flying a balloon as it’s the weekend : could Trafigura be in the mix, somewhere, in any deal ?

It all comes back to Means, Motive, Opportunity…and an alternative permutation of the presumed ‘actors’.

Could Trafigura supplant GLEN ? And might GLEN – for the right (exit) price- agree?

Answers on a postcard…

Idle musings whilst we await developments, prompted by a snippet that Trafigura’s top 2 China iron-ore traders have just quit.

Trafigura's top China iron ore traders leave group (msn.com)

This follows upheaval a couple of months back, with both the CFO and head of oil trading – ‘pivotal figures’ : Company founders ex Marc Rich (founder of GLEN) - quitting in wake of the COO’s resignation to fight corruption charges (no, really).

Shake-up at Trafigura as ‘pivotal’ executive director and finance chief both quit | TradeWinds (tradewindsnews.com)

It is the world's largest private metals trader and second-largest oil trader having built or purchased stakes in pipelines, mines, smelters, ports and storage terminals.

With so many opportunities, the corruption allegations against Trafigura could be anywhere, the specific instance re Wainwright (COO) is Sonangol, Angola, $5m, 2011-2014.

A larger, recent case concerned bribery at Petrobras (Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the US DoJ), settlement of USD 126 million.

Trafigura Joins the FCPA Enforcement Club: Pleads Guilty and Pays Over $126 Million for Bribery Violations in Brazil (Part I of III) - Corruption, Crime & Compliance (volkovlaw.com)

Trafigura thus joined the list of international commodity trading companies to suffer FCPA enforcement actions — Vitol, Sargeant Marine, GLENCORE, Freepoint, and Gunvor.

Trafigura, GLEN and Gunvor have all historically been active in ‘contentious’ pre-export finance oil deals with C-B, through the national oilco SNPC ( quondam Deputy Director General : Little Den) and its trading arm, Cotrade (quondam Administrator-General : Little Den).

Swiss prosecutors indict an ex-employee of trading firm Gunvor over bribes paid in Republic of Congo | The Independent

Note that Gunvor co-founder Gennady Timchenko got his first oil export licence from his ‘close friend’ Putin and reportedly used his ‘Russian influence’ to secure those C-B deals in the first place (and maybe get re-paid?)

I can’t find any info on Gunvor legacy issues*, but Trafigura and GLEN figure in the ‘difficult’ IMF rescheduling negotiations and appear to have been owed abt US$ 1Bn and US$ 730m respectively (originally due between 2014 and 2019), rescheduled to 2021, subsequent fate unclear.

* there's a corruption case being heard in Switzerland now...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/ap-swiss-republic-of-congo-vladimir-putin-african-b2418919.html

Hold that thought.

Continued...

And, as surely as night follows day, this message on both the Ministry's and (tweaked to personalize) his own account...

.."As part of the state visit of His Excellency the President of the Republic of Congo to China, a series of bilateral agreements were concluded on September 6, 2024. Under the aegis of the Chinese and Congolese heads of state, Minister Denis Christel Nguesso signed nearly twenty legal instruments aimed at consolidating and developing Sino-Congolese relations.

These agreements, the result of in-depth discussions between the Congolese and Chinese delegations, cover several key areas. From agriculture to infrastructure, including technology and education, each instrument aims to meet specific needs and will contribute to the evolution of the partnership between Brazzaville and Beijing, which is moving towards more diversified cooperation.

Strengthening this legal framework opens up new perspectives for collaboration, where Chinese expertise and Congolese resources can complement each other to support the economic transformation of Congo. These agreements represent a concrete step towards achieving shared development objectives. They aim to stimulate investment, encourage local innovation and create opportunities for the Congolese population, and thus contribute to the long-term development of the country."

Nothing specific/relevant AFAICS.

GLA

Little Den is in attendance in most of the twitter footage of the gatherings, it's a racing certainty that if there's anything of substance in the 19 documents signed - and probably even if there isn't - he'll want to publicize it !

GLA