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Per depeches today

(1) Quid pro quo :

HYDROCARBONS

New oil agreement between Congo and Russia

The MoU for work on several oil blocks in the Congo was signed on 27 September in Moscow, Russia, by the Minister for Hydrocarbons, Bruno Jean Richard Itoua, and the vice-president of the private Russian company Lukoil, Ivan Romanovsky. The agreement provides for

closer cooperation between Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo and Lukoil, with the aim of optimising ongoing projects and promote the joint development of resources.

(2) A bit late to the party ?

UNITED STATES

Angola, a key partner for ambitions in Africa

The choice of Angola for the FIRST TRIP TO AFRICA of Joe Biden's presidency demonstrates

the growing influence of the recipient of one of the largest US investments in infrastructure investments on the continent.

During his stay in Angola from 13 to 15 October, the American president will visit the rehabilitation site of the railway line linking the Angolan port of Lobito to the Democratic Republic of Congo and the construction of a branch line to Zambia. The 1300 km of

rails will carry resources to the Atlantic coast, resources crucial to the {Ed.: US , maybe its allies] economy - copper and cobalt in particular - from both countries.

Joe Biden described the project - also supported by the European Union - as ‘the largest American investment ever in African rail'.

Washington says it plans to extend the rail project eastwards to the Indian Ocean,

while Beijing pledged in September to rehabilitate the Tazara railway line opened in 1976 [Ed.: nearly 50 years ago] and linking Zambia to the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam.

(3) There's some beefing up of the US embassy presence in C-B, first named attendee the C-B Minister of Defence

.."This new group will work to develop cooperation between the US, the Congolese government and the Congolese people, focus on key shared interests in protecting the environment and the fight against climate change, strengthen military cooperation between the two between the two states and in many other sectors..."

'Show us the money'

GLA

Also makes the point- true but a bit defensively - that the US is behind most of the multilateral agencies that have been supporting Africa since the '50's....

Thanks nibj,

...and court date is 12th Nov, so should help concentrate the minds.

ATB

Quite! - again ;->

Another case of 'the dog that did not bark' ?

And - until any appointment - the BoD is more obviously controlled by Elphick and co.

It answers the US's 'Europe question' : 'Who do I call'?

Another straw in the wind, perhaps?

My 'confirmation bias' is working overtime atm.

I think I'll go into a dark room and lie down.

Oh, wait...

GLA

Hi Jiving

Your 0835 post re Saudi - Chinese co- financing would lend itself to 'bridge finance' very easily, I'd imagine....with Saudi , initially, at least, a little more in the driving seat.

Which I'm sure they'd like...

Maybe the apparent 2 x PN port upgrades - and silence locally re AD Ports- is all part of the horse- (or camel-) trading...?

GLA

You might start by asking AZ to prove his holding, something he's never done to date.

Elphick has no incentive to talk up the share price, unless there's a material need for cash from the Shard facility

Longer term, it's in his interest to ease out potentially troublesome, irrelevant PI's in favour of more substantial corporate and other investors.

What would you do, in his position?

AFAICS

And many of the putative Strategic Partners are parastatals, SOEs or similar ie have credit ratings close to sovereign...and could borrow at similar interest cost, AIUI.

Hi Jiving,

As you say. Elphick also says :

.."Iron Ore Market

The iron ore market has seen volatility of late, with a significant reduction in benchmark pricing due to concerns over growth in China. However, recent stimulus from the Chinese government has renewed iron ore pricing to the same levels to which we have become accustomed. China continues to consume significant quantities of iron ore to feed its substantial steel industry and initiatives to produce lower carbon emission 'green steel' provide further support for premium pricing related to high grade iron ore products. This provides further impetus for the development of high grade iron ore projects such as the Zanaga Project..."

This week is China's long holiday, so nothing 'imminent' , at a guess.

And it's not nailed on that the port discussions are with AD Ports, is it ?

.."Discussions are in progress with a large port infrastructure development firm to investigate opportunities to align the Zanaga Project with their planned port infrastructure facilities in Pointe-Noire. Consideration is being given to both of the following port infrastructure initiatives:

· Opportunity for expansion of the existing port of Pointe-Noire, potentially enabling a larger solution for the EPP Project.

· Potential development solutions for a large bulk mineral port terminal capable of supporting the Zanaga 30Mtpa staged development project..."

Pointe Noire or Pointe Indienne ?

Hmmm...

GLA

The OSV link is intriguing:

"WS also indicated there s a review of the osv business which is in a jv with a Chilean family."

Not just any Chilean family...

hxxps://www.elmostrador.cl/noticias/pais/2013/05/17/el-oculto-pasado-nazi-del-patriarca-del-clan-von-appen/

..Apfel’, which in German means “apple”, was the nickname of the spy who during World War II led sabotage activities from Chile along the western coast of South America, and who for years had those in charge of investigating the movements of the Third Reich's espionage networks that had been set up in the country in the face of constant criticism from the United States.

The true identity of ‘Apfel’, which was discovered by the investigators of Department 50, the Chilean counter-espionage unit that managed to disrupt two German networks in the country, corresponded to the German citizen known in Chile as Julio Alberto von Appen Oestman, based in Chile and father of today's powerful businessmen Wolf and Sven von Appen.

The story of the patriarch of one of the country's most important economic groups, ....is detailed in the book ‘Chile and the Men of the Third Reich’, by María Soledad de la Cerda.

Research that explains how the father of the family that is today the leader of the national port business through Ultramar, and also an important financier of the Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP), where Wolf von Appen is vice-president of the board of directors, was commissioned by the Nazi regime to blow up power plants, ships and factories. And above all the Panama Canal.."

'Nowt so strange as folk.

GLA

There's this

hTTps://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/cma-cgm-agrees-buy-48-santos-brasil-12-bln-will-launch-takeover-bid-2024-09-23/

and this OCN -specific teaser

.."Rio de Janeiro, 23 September 2024 - Wilson Sons S.A. (B3 Ticker: PORT3) (“Wilson Sons” or “Company”), pursuant to the regulations in force, hereby informs that its offshore support vessel joint ventures, Wilson, Sons Ultratug Participações S.A. and Atlantic Offshore Services S.A. (collectively “WSUT”), have engaged Pareto Securities AS (“Pareto”) as their financial adviser to assist in exploring strategic opportunities, which may include the disposal of the equity interests held by the Company and the Ultranav Group in WSUT. This evaluation of strategic opportunities is at an early stage and there can be no certainty as to its outcome..."

We've been here before, but still...

Here's a recent summary of current M & A activity/discussions in Brazil

https://valorinternational.globo.com/business/news/2024/08/23/with-foreign-investor-interest-port-sector-prepares-for-manda-spree.ghtml

Maybe the iSquared report has some legs?

GLA

Meanwhile, on the macro front, Louis Gave of the highly regarded Gavekal Research has this to say :

.."In the US, the world’s largest economy, the central bank is now easing monetary policy, and January 2025 will most likely see another round of fiscal stimulus (unless Kamala Harris wins the presidential election but is saddled with a Republican-controlled House of Representatives which proceeds to tighten government spending).

• In China, the world’s second largest economy, the government is now easing monetary and fiscal policies and actively looking to boost asset prices.

A simultaneous easing of monetary and fiscal policies in the world’s two biggest economies does not sound exactly deflationary.

Today, the only major hurdle to a general boom for China and the wider world may be fears of a further deterioration in the US-China relationship.

But on this front, what if instead of the outright conflict that so many investors expect and are positioned for, the incoming US administration (whether under Donald Trump or Kamala Harris) starts talking about the need for a new Plaza Accord? (Or a Mar-a-Lago Accord; see Punitive Tariffs Or Towards A New Plaza Accord?)

In this scenario, the ensuing boom could be as epic as the boom of 1985-87—and perhaps even bigger....."

GLA

As recently as 2022, the interims were released on 30 Sept @13:00....

That, too, was an event-rich period, with the GLEN acquisition following a few weeks later.

GLA

Sectoral consolidation of Ma'aden's aluminium business - integration and expansion - that challenges the UAE's position as lead Gulf supplier.

https://www.agbi.com/analysis/mining/2024/09/maaden-alba-merger-potential-game-changer/

Interesting to look at the deal structure - lots of moving parts and political/commercial sensitivities to address...which Wilt and co seem happy to do.

GLA

Maybe to counteract the 10 minute paean of praise for China/C-B on LiYan's twitter, Little Den has been highlighting the merits of HIS deal with Russia, the recently-announced pipeline project from PN to Brazzaville.

.."the state company Zarubezhneft, ... will be a stakeholder in the project as part of a joint venture with the company Prometey, according to the wishes of the Russian government..."

Prometey appears to be a serious player :

https://prometey.com.ru/en

GLA

PS He's not above throwing his weight around - including corporate 'greenmail' - when/ if he can.

Though our assumed Strategics may be a bit big even for him.

ATB

Hi Vet10,

Fortescue Metals made its money in Pilbara 'rust'.

Some of that money Forrest put into 'green' ventures, mainly hydrogen, to be generated via solar or hydro.

His mine in Gabon, Belinga, seems to be a halfway-house : better grades of ore than Pilbara, so he can extend conventional business by admixture. The mine has been developed quickly and has already started (small) exports. I think the quality (ore grade and impurities) is lower than ZIOC, as is the potential quantity. But it has the merit of being a relatively uncomplex set-up (direct deal with Gov't; simple logistics etc).

The hydro venture in Cameroon is via Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) and is intended to generate hydrogen as the combustible in the steel-making process, ie 'super' green.

Hydrogen may be a bridge too far : it's technically difficult to produce, store and ship in volume....and is a big, ineffficient consumer of a scarce commodity - electricity. It scores high on ESG and low on practicality, a luxury that many can't afford. Maybe including us...;-<

Cameroon (at 65% supply to the population) is better than C-B (at 50%), but still low....and maybe there's more political mileage in serving your local basic 'need to have' as opposed to foreigners' 'nice to have'. Esp if there's a Q re willingness / ability to pay the premium that 'green steel' would command.

Coming back to your Q : if the Strategic Partners have got their act together re ZIOC complexities , Forrest would probably be interested in joining : AT has always said that 'Twiggy' was one of ZIOC's more seriously interested parties.

All AFAICS

HTH

Duly copied and pasted into today's depeches, front page teaser, back page full spread.

.."Congo Terminal/Africa Global Logistics [part of MSC Group] ..has expanded its activities by building a new container terminal called ‘Môle Est’, which will be operational in 2027.

The new terminal will have 750 m of quays with a 17 m draught, 26 hectares of quayside and 16 100% electric gantry cranes, including 4 quayside gantry cranes and 12 yard gantry cranes. A major dredging campaign will widen the channel to 300 m at the bend and 250 m for the other sections...."

Est total cost Euro 400m (US$ 445m).

This compares with AD Ports' proposed investment of nearly the same amount ('$500m') at a similarly-named port, see

https://gulfbusiness.com/ad-ports-awards-crane-contracts-for-africa-ports

.."In June 2023, AD Ports Group finalised a 30-year concession with the Republic of the Congo for managing and operating the New East Mole Terminal in Pointe-Noire, with a projected investment of $500m...with around US$ 220 million allocated for phase 1, which is expected to be completed over the next 30 months. This terminal will handle various cargo types, including containers and breakbulk..."

AD Ports' recent ZPMC contract is for 3 x Ship to Shore cranes and 9 RubberTyred Gantry cranes.

AD Ports Phase 1 completion (30 months) is as near as dammit the same as quoted for Congo Terminal.

The spend, the target completion date and the location are all v similar.

Confused? I certainly am.....and maybe depeches's 'radio silence' re AD Ports recent cranes news reflects their quandary too.

GLA

Duly copied and pasted into today's depeches, front page teaser, back page full spread.

..Congo Terminal/Africa Global Logistics [part of MSC Group] ..has expanded its activities by building a new container terminal called ‘Môle Est’, which will be operational in 2027.

The new terminal will have 750 m of quays with a 17 m draught, 26 hectares of quayside and 16 100% electric gantry cranes, including 4 quayside gantry cranes and 12 yard gantry cranes. A major dredging campaign will widen the channel to 300 m at the bend and 250 m for the other sections...."

Est total cost Euro 400m (US$ 445m).

This compares with AD Ports' proposed investment of nearly the same amount ('$500m') at a similarly-named port, see

https://gulfbusiness.com/ad-ports-awards-crane-contracts-for-africa-ports

.."In June 2023, AD Ports Group finalised a 30-year concession with the Republic of the Congo for managing and operating the New East Mole Terminal in Pointe-Noire, with a projected investment of $500m...with around US$ 220 million allocated for phase 1, which is expected to be completed over the next 30 months. This terminal will handle various cargo types, including containers and breakbulk..."

AD Ports' recent ZPMC contract is for 3 x Ship to Shore cranes and 9 RubberTyred Gantry cranes.

AD Ports Phase 1 completion (30 months) is as near as dammit the same as quoted for Congo Terminal.

Confused? I certainly am.....and maybe depeches's 'radio silence' re AD Ports recent cranes news reflects their quandary too.

GLA

And, in another curious bit of synchronicity, Jared Dillian of the Mauldin stable has this to say ...also today :

"One more idea and we’re out of here.

Glencore

I actually have a neighbor who used to work for Glencore. Got a bunch of stock on the IPO, sold it, and now he says he can afford a house in my neighborhood.

I love stories like that.

Glencore is a commodities trading firm, if you didn’t know. The biggest and the best. They typically traffic in spot commodities—they’re heavily involved in production and transshipment, and less so in punting around exchange-traded stuff, though they do that, too. In a commodities bull market, they tend to do well. Let’s look at the chart:

Source: Bloomberg

This is a 5-year chart. As you can see, it bounced right where it was supposed

to.

We are going to buy Glencore. I will buy some in 24 hours. Buy and hold, long term. In case you can’t see the ticker, it’s GLNCY. It’s an ADR...

Hook a brother up. I give you guys lots of good trades. Think of it as a tip jar...."

CAVA, GGAL, SLG, YPF...

NAI, DYOR, GLA.