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Nothing from Seb, but 2 x snippets from the btl comments :

(1) it looks as though there's been good rainfall in the provinces, folk are expecting record harvests of wheat and soy;

(2) there've apparently been legislative changes to strip the 'casta' [political appointees famed for their venality/corruption] of its customs authority...

..By Resolution 5586/24 of @FMisrahiAlmaraz of the former @AFIPcomunica dependent on @MinEconomia_Ar of @LuisCaputoAR , one of the most emblematic Customs circulars of the economic control that the castes exercised over the country's economic policy was eliminated.

Thus, circulars 701/99 and 799/2000, which required the need for a national industry supervisor to release a container in the red channel when goods from that sector were imported, are repealed.

How to put it: if you wanted to import footwear, a footwear industry supervisor had to give his opinion; if you wanted to import pipes for the oil sector, a representative of the national steel industry had to give his opinion... there were even lists of people with names and surnames authorized for this purpose.

With its repeal we are removing a symbol of the caste that the president @JMilei came to banish.

We would particularly like to thank @eduardomallea2 who worked tirelessly over the past few months to make this resolution a reality.

'Every little helps'

GLA and ATB

Https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/saudi-arabia-megaproject-neom-says-it-needs-20-of-the-world-s-steel/

.."The major Saudi Arabian megacity construction Neom is currently using 20 percent of the world's steel, according to a spokesperson for the project.

Neom is a 10,200 sq mi area in northwest Saudi Arabia that has been turned into the world's biggest construction site as an urban living megaproject launched in 2017 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is underway....

...Manar Al Moneef, Neom's chief investment officer, spoke at the Global Logistics Forum in Riyadh on the weekend of October 13. According to the business news outlet Arabian Gulf Business Insight, she said, "Neom is going to be the largest customer [in logistics] over the next decade. If you look at our demand in logistics it's 5 percent of the global logistics market."

She added, "We are 20 percent of the global steel market. If you look at our demand in elevators, cement and so on ... Put simply, Neom is going to be the largest customer over the next few decades."

..Since Saudi Arabia is not a major steel producer, it is likely they are buying a lot of their steel from overseas.

..Saudi Arabia is also preparing to host soccer's World Cup in 2034 and the World Expo in 2030. The World Cup stadium is expected to be built as part of Neom, and ready for the games a decade away."

Shame ZIOC won't be producing in volume for a while.

At the very least, this should convince MBS (if it is he) that steel - and therefore iron ore - is very much a strategic commodity !

GLA and ATB

Https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/saudi-arabia-megaproject-neom-says-it-needs-20-of-the-world-s-steel/

.."The major Saudi Arabian megacity construction Neom is currently using 20 percent of the world's steel, according to a spokesperson for the project.

Neom is a 10,200 sq mi area in northwest Saudi Arabia that has been turned into the world's biggest construction site as an urban living megaproject launched in 2017 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is underway....

...Manar Al Moneef, Neom's chief investment officer, spoke at the Global Logistics Forum in Riyadh on the weekend of October 13. According to the business news outlet Arabian Gulf Business Insight, she said, "Neom is going to be the largest customer [in logistics] over the next decade. If you look at our demand in logistics it's 5 percent of the global logistics market."

She added, "We are 20 percent of the global steel market. If you look at our demand in elevators, cement and so on ... Put simply, Neom is going to be the largest customer over the next few decades."

..Since Saudi Arabia is not a major steel producer, it is likely they are buying a lot of their steel from overseas.

..Saudi Arabia is also preparing to host soccer's World Cup in 2034 and the World Expo in 2030. The World Cup stadium is expected to be built as part of Neom, and ready for the games a decade away."

Shame ZIOC won't be producing in volume for a while.

At the very least, this should convince MBS (if it is he) that steel - and therefore iron ore - is very much a strategic commodity !

GLA and ATB

Hi chewy8uk

If AZ ever appeared on Bloomberg, it's sure to have been mentioned here...

No need to go to Bloomberg.

HTH

We've both been around long enough to remember when ZIOC and others were asked to indicate likely utilisation of local port facilities - info requested by EXIM Bank China IIRC to see whether investment made financial sense.

I'm not sure whether the 2 x export routes - iron ore slurry and potash (?) - have much overlap en route, maybe in the pre-shipment storage/handling ?

Maybe someone who follows both co's has an idea.

ATB

Hi Rider75,

As a timely follow-up,

From today's online FT :

Mubadala Capital sees chance to buy up large private equity stakes

Emirati unit raises $3.1bn for its latest fund hoping to appeal to groups looking to raise cash

OCTOBER 22, 2024

.."In the takeover of Fortress, Mubadala Capital agreed to an about $2bn equity commitment that was more than its private equity fund had in assets at the time. It was able to complete the deal with additional capital from its corporate parent.

Once the deal was agreed and went through regulatory approvals, Mubadala Capital then syndicated the equity commitment to other investors..."

ATB

Oh! wait....

Re yesterday's post.

From today's online FT :

.."Mubadala Capital sees chance to buy up large private equity stakes

Emirati unit raises $3.1bn for its latest fund hoping to appeal to groups looking to raise cash

OCTOBER 22, 2024"

AD Ports (also from Abu Dhabi) is vying with MSC elsewhere, on the East Mole development at Pointe-Noire, Congo Brazzaville.

GLA

And today..

.." Argentina currently has frozen collateral for Brady bonds that matured in March 2023 in accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in NY, Switzerland and Germany. The beneficiaries of the ruling, led by Attestor Master, are asking that these sovereign assets be transferred to an account at a financial institution to be defined while the US Supreme Court reviews the ruling that froze the assets.

Meanwhile, another fund, the Bainbridge Fund, claims to have priority over those assets and is asking the Court of Appeals to grant Attestor's request for the frozen Brady collateral to become its property.

It is striking that no Argentine government, Wall Street investment bank or the IMF itself is aware of the similar problem that is looming over us, as they have not had the curiosity to at least analyse the alarming level of legal liabilities that we currently have as a country..."

Keep on pointing things out, Seb...

GLA

Hi Bluepanther,

Not sure why you say that : the stars are 'more aligned' now than at any time in the past AFAICS...

The unknown unknowns are always a concern...and lack of guidance from the company doesn't help....as you've observed elsewhere !

'Jeeeez you need some patience here don’t you🥴 not sure about this radio silence strategy.. completely under the radar.."

;->

HTH

Hi LOTM,

I listened in to the Wilson Sons conf call.

A bit of a 'nothingburger', IMO.

- Completion is expected in H2 2025, after which SAS will offer to buy in remainder (on same terms). SAS might then go for an ('incentivising'?) de-listing. No decision as yet.

- BTG Pactual asked 'early or late H2'? Reply : depends on regulatory approvals and timelines, not something we (Wilson Sons) can answer.

- what about counter-offer, break fees etc ? Don't ask us, ask Ocean Wilsons !

- what are the synergies/benefits arising from the sale ? Don't ask us, ask MSC !

Must say that a likely 12 months of regulatory uncertainty + commercial, forex and political risk in the interim doesn't appeal at this sale price.

Let's see if a counter-offer appears, otherwise I'll probably draw stumps.

NAI, DYOR etc etc

ATB ...and GLA

What's their track record on the lottery ?

;->

.."Banco bpm, strange he used their name then zilch..."

The Rothschilds, Carrefour, Rolls Royce, Quadrivio, Mubadala, etc etc...

But - as people pointed out at the time- these folk never DENIED the connection.

So that's alright, then.

Thanks LOTM!

If the buyer of OCN were from private equity themselves, that aspect of any deal might not be an issue...and the buyer would have a better-than-average idea of what the private equity future commitments were actually 'worth'...

I wonder whether OCN's commitment is irrevocable?

Or whether a parastatal such as AD Ports from Abu Dhabi might enter the fray, leaving other arms of the State eg Mubadala to pick up the equity side of things?

Mubadala has a longstanding investment in Acu port ( largest private in Brazil) and in J/V with EIG, a private equity infrastructure fund...

Interesting times, for sure!

ATB

Seb tweets

With the economic team in Washington this week, I do not rule out that the payment of the sentence for the GDP coupons in London, without harming the minimum reserve levels agreed with the IMF, will be a topic of discussion with the Fund.

GLA

If you think you can offload at a profitable margin, you're open to buying a larger amount upfront.

In corporate banking, we'd underwrite, say 30% of a transaction priced at X and aim/hope to sell down to smaller fry at a profit, leaving us with enhanced earnings on our final 10- 15%.

The detail may be different in the sovereign debt market, but the principle's the same,

AIUI

HTH

In other news, MSC Group's SAS subsidiary has just announced a bid for Wilson Sons Brazilian port operations.

.."Ocean Wilsons is pleased to announce that its wholly-owned subsidiary, OW Overseas (Investments) Limited ("OWOIL"), has agreed to sell its 56.47% interest in Wilson Sons S.A. ("Wilson Sons") to SAS Shipping Agencies Services Sàrl ("SAS"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company SA ("MSC"), for total cash consideration of R$4.352 billion (equivalent to R$17.50 per share) (the "Transaction")..."

I hold OCN.

MSC is the other party - alongside AD Ports - that has said it's developing the East Mole in Pointe Noire.

I've yet to see anything in the local press about the AD Ports / ZPMC $114m crane contract reported a month back.

From 27 Sept :

..""Congo Terminal/Africa Global Logistics [part of MSC Group] ..has expanded its activities by building a new container terminal called ‘Môle Est’, which will be operational in 2027.

The new terminal will have 750 m of quays with a 17 m draught, 26 hectares of quayside and 16 100% electric gantry cranes, including 4 quayside gantry cranes and 12 yard gantry cranes. A major dredging campaign will widen the channel to 300 m at the bend and 250 m for the other sections...."

Est total cost Euro 400m (US$ 445m).

This compares with AD Ports' proposed investment of nearly the same amount ('$500m') at a similarly-named port, see

https://gulfbusiness.com/ad-ports-awards-crane-contracts-for-africa-ports

.."In June 2023, AD Ports Group finalised a 30-year concession with the Republic of the Congo for managing and operating the New East Mole Terminal in Pointe-Noire, with a projected investment of $500m...with around US$ 220 million allocated for phase 1, which is expected to be completed over the next 30 months. This terminal will handle various cargo types, including containers and breakbulk..."

AD Ports' recent ZPMC contract is for 3 x Ship to Shore cranes and 9 RubberTyred Gantry cranes.

AD Ports Phase 1 completion (30 months) is as near as dammit the same as quoted for Congo Terminal.

The spend, the target completion date and the location are all v similar.

Confused? I certainly am.....and maybe depeches's 'radio silence' re AD Ports recent cranes news reflects their quandary too..."

Curiouser and curiouser.

GLA

.."I cannot see the Chinese allowing that level of investment being used to facilitate a Fortescue of this world then exporting high grade to China for a whopping premium.."

That's assuming that the party providing the mining expertise would have rights to the entire production.

If you take the view that a rational consortium structure would be to take production pro-rata to investment %age (likely Manara's view, eg 6 mtpa or 20% would surely cover their own needs?), then a Fortescue participation (at, say 10 or 20%) wouldn't be that problematic, surely?

Esp. given that Twiggy, who's recently celebrated shipping a Billion tonnes of ore to the Chinese is unlikely to upset his prime customer by price-gouging...he could even afford to offer a slight discount!*

Or, as you've previously argued, use his entitlement to upgrade his Pilbara rust to mid-level quality, for which there'll still be demand..and make up in volume what he forgoes in premium.

He has a big Aussie constituency to bear in mind too, remember.

Another thought : that's twice recently that the Chinese have been rebuffed in accessing East African copper.

This second time in the wake of FOCAC, where the Chinese made a notable exception to their 'lower project spend' commitments (USD 10 Bn FDI 2024-27), with the announced upgrade to Tazara :

.."Some of the announcements made at FOCAC, however, surprised analysts by bucking that trend.

Xi announced China would be undertaking a $1 billion upgrade of the TAZARA railway, which will link mineral-rich, landlocked Zambia with Tanzania's coast. He signed an agreement with the presidents of those two countries on Wednesday.

There was already a sense that infrastructure would be one of those asks that would not be entertained by the Chinese side, so I think that has come as a bit of a surprise," Paul Nantulya, a research associate with the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, told VOA.

"I think African countries were also quite concerned about infrastructure financing. ... Now it seems like the Chinese side may have finally backed down," said Nantulya, who was in Beijing for FOCAC. "That would indicate that China does not want to be locked out of the infrastructure game, given what the U.S. is doing with the Lobito Corridor..."

The (Great) game's afoot, Watson.

.."i'm pretty sure i don't give a **** why fq or the chinese are selling.."

The Chinese wanted to buy....and were trumped.

That's the point.

ATB

And meanwhile, Twiggy is pressing ahead with his first AFAIAA investment in the GCC :

https://fortescue.com/news-and-media/news/2024/04/29/actis-fortescue-consortium-awarded-rights-to-develop-green-hydrogen-project-in-oman

One of 2 x projects in-country.

FMG/ FFI have existing overlap with Abu Dhabi/ AD Ports/ Mubadala, as noted already.

ATB