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.." if milei even looks like he can get his dollarization programme going then those Argentine sovereign bonds will rise substantially .."

In which case ( where the risk is : Argentina settles for X in bonds , only to find it's worth 2X a year later - so it could (maybe) have settled for 1/2 as much), Milei/Argentina would surely insist on some mechanism that kept the 'agreed payout' a near-constant : they wouldn't want to be accused of 'over'-settling!

But there should also be some reward for early/prompt (hah!) payment...

Maybe something that was pegged to the price of something else - gold, perhaps? (Trump is said to be a bit of a gold bug...). Or bitcoin...? (Elon would surely support).

With so much at stake, I'm sure 'creative' minds will come up with something.

GLA

.."If that still holds it does look as if the Chinese would want to rationalise all their exports through one facility - see KP2 perhaps."

Ht tip to 99icecream for this, which supports the above :

.."If I'm correct in my geography Chinese-backed Luyan de Mines are next door neighbours to Kore and given the Chinese connection might end up sharing shipping facilities.

Kropz Hinda - in their old guise as Cominco planned to have a slurry pipeline from their mine to the SEZ. There has been a great deal of hype which suggests this project may be revived.

Note the relevance of this to the future of Kore which has Carnallite, which can be exploited using Emmersons (EML) KMP process using Phosphate and Ammonia to produce a premium slow release fertilizer (Struvite).

https://www.theafricareport.com/346728/patrice-motsepe-invests-his-billions-in-congo-mega-phosphate-project/

see the map here for the transport plan:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cominco_Resources"

GLA

Continued

It's also not clear how the latest Arise PPP (ref Loango SEZ) that Little Den is touting meshes with this PROPOSAL from Dec 2023 - involving the IFC in a number of African countries - that also includes/included (?) Loango...

Investment Type(s) Loan

Investment Amount (USD) $ 264.96 million

Loan Amount (USD) $ 264.96 million

Project Cost (USD) $ 922.05 million

https://ewsdata.rightsindevelopment.org/projects/44846-arise-special-economic-zone/

.."Project Description

As stated by the IFC, Arise Integrated Industrial Platforms Ltd (Arise IIP or the company) is a developer and operator of Special Economic Zones (SEZ) and Industrial Parks across Africa.

The sponsors of Arise IIP are Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and Africa Transformation and Industrialization Fund (ATIF) who own 75.92% and 24.08%, respectively, of the company.

Arise IIP is a developer and operator of SEZs that provide common infrastructure and services (such as energy, water, and wastewater and waste management), good export connectivity and simplified administrative procedures to SEZ tenants. A key aim of the SEZs is allow the processing of raw agro-commodity products in their country of origin and generate added value prior to export and create employment opportunities.

Arise currently has operational SEZs in Gabon, Togo (Phase 1), and Benin (Phase 1) and a number under development across Africa. Each SEZ is a JOINT VENTURE with the respective government of the host country..."

.."The funds will be utilized for the construction of hard assets for the industrial real estate – i.e., land preparation, internal road network and lighting, connections to the national electricity grid and internal distribution, water abstraction, treatment and distribution, wastewater management, waste management, internet network, warehouses, inland container depot, truck parking bays, fire station, and other ancillary infrastructure and services..."

.."In the RoC, the project is located on 484 ha of land in the municipality of Loango, APPROXIMATELY 15 KM WEST OF Pointe Noire, and adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean...

It's not clear whether this IFC financing was eventually approved, Arise itself seems to have found other work in the meantime :

https://www.ariseiip.com/arise-iip-signs-development-agreement-with-government-of-malawi-to-construct-sez-and-dry-port/

ARISE Integrated Industrial Platforms (IIP) has two shareholders: Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), and Equitane. Afreximbank is our strategic partner.

https://www.equitane.com/ appears to be a Dubai-based, Indian inspired venture capitalist in the agricultural and logistics sectors.

Hmmm...

Depeches reports today on the 3 PPP projects promoted by Little Den.

Not quite what I was expecting, for different reasons :

..."Three projects by various private companies wishing to collaborate with the government were examined at the meeting: Ultra Publican, Société Nationale de Développement Informatique (SNDI) and Erise.

(1).."The first project, supported by Ultra Publican, will provide the Congolese government with software to optimise customs revenues..."

https://ultra.global/stories/how-publicans-four-pillars-drive-trade-facilitation/

https://ultra.global/company/

.."In 2016, we established Ultra to connect the physical and the digital worlds and enable trust and transparency via effective and accurate digital online vetting.

Already deployed in over 40 countries, we are continuing on this journey of safeguarding the digital economy to positively impact billions of people worldwide..."

It looks to be an Israeli version of SGS, with an ethical approach to business based on tikkun olam

https://www.chabad.org/library/article_cdo/aid/3700275/jewish/What-Is-Tikkun-Olam.htm

(2) .."The second, presented by SNDI, plans to modernise the national printing works with a view to producing secure administrative documents..."

It's a C-B government body : https://dgpe.gouv.ci/fr/entreprises/sndi/

(3) .."The third project involves Erise [sic, they mean Arise], which has already set up operations in zone A of the Pointe-Noire special economic zone. This company is proposing to set up a bulk carrier port that will essentially be dedicated to the activities of the Loango special economic zone..."

This looks to be a re-hash of its earlier PPP, from 2 years ago (uses the same images in Arise's just-shared promo)

https://mbtpsa.com/the-codimex-group-in-charge-of-developing-the-pointe-noire-special-economic-zone/?lang=en

.."The Pointe-Noire SEZ is the result of a public-private partnership signed in June 2022 between Congo and Arise IIP, a company with operations in Gabon, Benin and Togo. Arise IIP, which specializes in the design, financing and development of industrial platforms, is also in charge of developing the Ouesso SEZ.

Last November [2022], President Denis Sassou N’Guesso inaugurated the work in Loango, where the SEZ will be built. The first phase should be completed within two years..."

Codimex itself, meanwhile, appears to have performance issues on another contract, per

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2023/03/03/codimex-banned-from-public-contracts-for-two-years,109919917-art

Congo, Ivory Coast

Codimex banned from public contracts for two years

The Ivorian subsidiary of the Attie brothers' company has had its contract rescinded after failing to construct a number of schools on time. [...]

Published on 03/03/2023

Little Den seems to be scraping the barrel a bit, it would seem.

And will Big Den remember that he already 'inaugurated' the Loango SEZ 2 years ago ?

Continued...

G

Per axios.com.."Musk is expected to attend Trump's meeting at Mar-a-Lago this week with Argentina's libertarian President Javier Milei..."

GLA

An interesting view from the Gulf on Trump's re-election, with a pretty undiplomatic assessment of the Biden (and Obama) years/achievements in the M East :

https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/2024/11/08/a-letter-to-donald-trump-from-prince-turki-al-faisal/

An open letter from Turki bin Faisal, Former Head of Saudi Intelligence, Former Ambassador to the UK and the US, appearing in The National News.

The National is a UAE state-owned English-language daily newspaper published in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. According to the Financial Times, the newspaper "is seen as a mouthpiece for Abu Dhabi'…

'My enemy's enemy is my friend' and all that.

GLA

An interesting view from the Gulf on Trump's re-election.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/2024/11/08/a-letter-to-donald-trump-from-prince-turki-al-faisal/

An open letter from Turki bin Faisal, Former Head of Saudi Intelligence, Former Ambassador to the UK and the US, appearing in The National News.

The National is a UAE state-owned English-language daily newspaper published in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. According to the Financial Times, the newspaper "is seen as a mouthpiece for Abu Dhabi'…

'My enemy's enemy is my friend' and all that.

GLA

Meanwhile, there's this exchange with 99ice-cream on the KP2 board, who provides useful info re the (soon-to-be-shared?) port facilities :

.."The mole port was planned as part of the new port project north of Pointe-Noire adjacent to the SEZ (Special Economic Zone), just south of Ponte-Indienne. This port consisted of two key elements, a conventional container port and also "Mole Port" - essentially a massive jetty that projects into deep water and allows the berthing of the largest bulk carriers for the transport of ore. It is not clear if these two elements will be managed by the same entity or different. The old plans can be seen here:-

http://www.halcrowsea.com/Projects/152928980272.html

ARISE which has been selected to manage the SEZ has this cartoon which illustrates their plans for the SEZ incorporating the container port (but on the Mole Port).

https://www.facebook.com/zes.gouv.cg/videos/zone-%C3%A9conomique-sp%C3%A9ciale-de-pointe-noire-pr%C3%A9sentation-du-projet-en-3d/5735726563141858/?extid=NS-UNK-UNK-UNK-AN_GK0T-GK1C'...

which prompted

.."Thanks for this, which may address the uncertainties surrounding AD Ports' vs MSC's respective/conflicting (?) role(s).

And for the 'Brucie bonus' of the earlier Halcrow plan - which I see ' was proposed to build two 300,000-ton ore exporting berths, one 100,000-ton POTASH EXPORTING exporting berth, two 50,000-ton multi-functional berths, etc....

So, maybe not for KP2, but perhaps for one of the other potential exporters ? Chinese-backed Luyan de Mines , for example ? Or a re-energised Kropz Hinda?

In any event, the thesis that there may be bigger deals afoot seems to have some traction.

As it happens, these people have chosen TODAY to launch this (admittedly fairly generic) marketing message :

https://generisonline.com/understanding-special-economic-zones-and-free-trade-areas-in-congo-brazzaville/

Coincidence ? The cynic in me wonders whether this is a clever way for Little Den to 'tap into' any prospective investors !

Who can say?"

GLA

Thanks for this, which may address the uncertainties surrounding AD Ports' vs MSC's role(s).

And for the 'Brucie bonus' of the earlier Halcrow plan - which I see ' was proposed to build two 300,000-ton ore exporting berths, one 100,000-ton POTASH EXPORTING exporting berth, two 50,000-ton multi-functional berths, etc....

So, maybe not for KP2, but perhaps for one of the other potential exporters ? Chinese-backed Luyan de Mines , for example ? Or a re-energised Kropz Hinda?

In any event, the thesis that there may be bigger deals afoot seems to have some traction.

As it happens, these people have chosen TODAY to launch this (fairly generic) marketing message :

https://generisonline.com/understanding-special-economic-zones-and-free-trade-areas-in-congo-brazzaville/

Coincidence ?

Who can say.

Thanks again

Note to self : GGAL ADR is currently @ $54 and YPF @ $30, both from around $ 10 12 months ago.

That has to help sentiment towards Argentina generally...and put that £ 20 target in perspective.

AFAICS

GLA

Hi 99icecream,

Thanks for this input.

There's some ambiguity/confusion about what port logistics are being developed ...and where, AFAICS.

AD Ports and MSC seem to be talking about developing the same concession, AD Ports has ordered with much fanfare some gantry cranes for PN (and Luanda) that's gone totally unreported in the local press (who are normally quick to big up any whiff of tangible FDI).

KP2 logistical needs may not need a dedicated 'minerals port', but what are its power requirements and how are they being met?

Whatever, there DOES seem to be something material afoot, let's hope that we (as investors) and the benighted local population share some crumbs off the table !

ATB

The bigger picture could perhaps be that KP2 MAY have become part of a larger 'play' in Congo Brazzaville, encompassing mining, hydropower and port development.

See the 2 x ZIOC boards, esp. MinorMiner's 'Eyes on KP2?' and 'Mineral port at Pointe Noire SEZ' for details.

NAI, DYOR etc etc

GLA

Re : 'China Overseas Company/holdings' and constituents...

Good post, MM !

That name appears to be a Western 'catch-all' for this body

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-owned_Assets_Supervision_and_Administration_Commission_of_the_State_Council

The ASAC list of 95 companies includes all of those named in your post, companies that have been 'mentioned' in despatches ' both specifically re ZIOC and elsewhere in its neighbourhood....BaoSteel figures at # 31 on the ASAC list... and PowerChina at # 84, for example...

Pls clarify the aside .."(Incidentally this [Sounda dam news] very positively caught the company by surprise)..."

We've been told that 'our' hydropower solution is with China Machinery Engineering Corp (CMEC);

CMEC is a subsidiary of the National Machinery Industry Corporation (Sinomach);

Sinomach is # 27 on the ASAC list.....

Is the surprise that China Inc (as you appear to surmise) have 'bigger fish to fry' and that ZIOC has been (pleasantly) surprised to hear them mutter 'we're going to need a bigger boat'?

;->

That ZIOC is still working with CMEC and that Sounda /PowerChina is a separate (but welcome!) ASAC project?

Or something else?

Say more!

Sounda Dam location appears ideal for KP2 and C-B national infrastructure, but about 240 Km Southwest* of Zanaga , per https://www.gem.wiki/Sounda_Gorge_hydroelectric_plant

* pretty close to the slurry pipeline course, though...

On the face of it, ASAC has 'doubled down' on its plans for C-B.

Never mind Big Den, I wonder what the Donald makes of this ?

GLA and ATB

Absolutely !

.."Since Saudi Arabia is not a major steel producer, it is likely they are buying a lot of their steel from overseas.

..Saudi Arabia is also preparing to host soccer's World Cup in 2034 and the World Expo in 2030. The World Cup stadium is expected to be built as part of Neom, and ready for the games a decade away."

Unfortunately, ZIOC itself (even if it progresses at 'warp speed') won't be producing in volume for a while.

HOWEVER, this dependency should convince MBS (if it is he) - AND HIS ADVISERS- that steel - and therefore iron ore - is very much a strategic commodity !.."

GLA and ATB

This article explores the possibility of US / Chinese co-operation rather than competition/confrontation on projects in Africa.

https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/09/what-does-emerging-china-africa-minerals-consensus-mean-us-initiatives

It highlights

(a) .."the drive from African countries to locate more strategic mineral refining and related manufacturing in Africa. African critical mineral strategies, developed by continental bodies like the African Development Bank, emphasize local refining and value addition, AN AMBITION NOW ENJOYING OFFICIAL CHINESE SUPPORT, [Ed.: reiterated at FOCAC, CoChair Big Den] as well as support from the U.S..."

while at the same time acknowledging

(b).."it is difficult for these companies to move their products up the value chain because further refining demands both a more stable power supply and a production ecosystem providing industrial chemicals currently missing [in Zimbabwe]. The current level of refining was enabled by Chinese mining companies building closed-loop electricity generation capacity to power these refineries. The dream of refining minerals and manufacturing battery components in [Zambia, Angola, Tanzania and the DRC] faces similar constraints."

If Sounda becomes a reality, it will tick a lot of FOCAC (and other) boxes.

ATB

Hi beardozer,

Even a cursory glance at my msge should make it that I was seeking, not proferring info.

Your reply tells me a lot about your portfolio allocation and aspirations, but nothing re my question : if 'transfer pricing' is used so that all the product/benefit/profit accrues to PChina, what's in it for the Omani/Chilean stakeholders, never mind folk like you ?

And what would you say if -by analogy- the same applied to ZIOC ?

And btw, every fule kno that one of KP2's USPs is its coastal proximity, not 'up the Congo'.

ATB

Back in the day, Abu Dhabi (who had the money) was always trying to play catch-up with Dubai (who had the 'smarts' and the 'entrepreneurial' instincts).

AbuDhabi belatedly built the Abu Dhabi Golf Club after seeing Dubai's success at the Emirates and Jumeirah...and its aluminium smelter at AlTaweelah after seeing the success of Dubal.

I wonder whether it's now the turn of Saudi to be playing catch-up with the UAE (and specifically Abu Dhabi)?

This is prompted by Saudi's recent (belated?) move into AI

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/saudi-arabia-plans-100-billion-ai-project-to-rival-uae

where the UAE's G42 is already making geopolitical waves

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2024/04/16/what-to-know-about-g42-the-emirati-ai-giant-that-just-got-a-15-billion-investment-from-microsoft/

.." Microsoft on Tuesday announced it will invest $1.5 billion in leading United Arab Emirates artificial intelligence firm G42, the tech giant’s latest high stakes investment in the sector and a sign of growing ties between Washington and Abu Dhabi as the U.S. fights to stay ahead of China in the race to control AI....

The firm has strong connections in the region and is chaired by one of the most powerful members of Abu Dhabi's royal family and UAE national security adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, as well as backed by Emirati sovereign wealth fund Mubadala.

Since its founding in 2018, G42 has developed partnerships with major firms such as OpenAI, Dell, IBM, Microsoft, Nvidia and Oracle, Cerebras, which is building G42 a super computer, pharma titan AstraZeneca, genetics giant Illumina and Mercedes..."

AbuDhabi - or rather, Sh Tahnoon, the 'power behind the throne' - also led the way into Zambian copper, see https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/abu-dhabis-irh-invest-11-bln-zambias-mopani-copper-mines-2023-12-22, nearly a year ago

while Saudi has yet to close its own 'copycat' deal in Zambia

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/saudi-arabia-advanced-talks-over-zambia-copper-mine-stake-maaden-ceo-says-2024-10-30/

Will the 2 countries be able to co-operate rather than compete, this time as potential investors/Strategic Partners in Zanaga ?

OK, highgrade iron ore isn't as high a priority as copper, which in turn doesn't seem to be as 'hot' as A.I., but still a worthwhile piece on the chess-board.

We can point to the apparent co-operation between them that led to the AD Ports Concession at PN, but apart from that, very little in the public domain.

All v frustrating.

GLA and ATB

Hi 99icecream,

Thanks for this, which wasn't the area I was thinking about : I'm more interested about this coincidence (?) of articles ...and whether they may be a losing party's spoiling tactic (which would be a positive - suggests a deal's been done) - or a negotiating tactic ('look at the (reputational) risk')- which suggests we've still a way to go.

I think/hope/suspect that the decision-makers are (a) thick-skinned and (b) pragmatic...and that a deal will get done, albeit perhaps with some nose-holding.

Hence the Bismarck quote at the end !

ATB

And the latest demarche re football a la congolaise :

.."The CAS order did not allow them to take part in the meeting. A twelve-member committee was subsequently appointed, headed by Major Ntsila. The same committee also published the new position of the Diables Rouges A' technical staff, appointing Cédric Nanitelamio as head coach.

Congolese football is on the brink of collapse. We wonder how far this tug-of-war with the international authorities will go. Fifa's patience is wearing thin. It had already threatened to suspend the Congo from all competitions if the recommendations in its letter were not complied with.

If sanctions are imposed, the players, referees, match commissioners, coaches and other officials, as well as the representative teams in all categories who have made a career of Congolese football, will pay the price for this mess..."

What a shambles.

And then there's this, from 3 months back.....

https://sassoufit.org/2024/08/25/why-america-must-stand-with-africas-human-rights-defenders/

Leads with a photo of Big Den with Sleepy Joe and 'Doctor'Jill.....

And Big Den has just been appointed co-Chair of FOCAC for 3 years....

..""Politics is the art of the possible," a quote by Otto von Bismarck, encapsulates the essence of the political landscape.

At its core, this quote signifies that in the realm of politics, decisions and actions are guided not by lofty ideals or wishes, but by what is realistically achievable. It highlights the pragmatism required in navigating the complex world of governance and emphasizes the need for compromise and incremental progress.

This notion strikes a chord in an era where idealistic visions often clash with the practicality of governance....."

GLA