Member Info for extrader

Ashmore's take on Bessent seems 'more of the same' :

..." a market friendly and somewhat relieving choice for such a pivotal role. Bessent has already been vocal with markets about his policy preferences. These include introducing a "333" policy framework aimed at increasing oil production by 3 million barrels per day, raising real GDP growth to 3% (driven by deregulation and significant productivity improvements), and cutting the fiscal deficit to 3% by 2028 through lower expenditure as percentage of GDP. Tariffs are expected to be a critical tool for achieving goals related to national security, trade reciprocity (such as addressing EU agriculture tariffs), and stronger currencies from COUNTRIES WITH ALARGE SURPLUS against the US.

These ideas ALIGN CLOSELY with former trade representative Robert Lighthizer’s focus on reciprocity, national security, and currency policies...."

GLA

Ashmore's latest

Argentina

In an interview, Luis `Toto` Caputo revealed that Argentina is planning to remove capital controls in 2025. Argentina still has a backlog of imports and relatively small foreign exchange reserve basis.

To liberalise capital flows the country is negotiating a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which includes securing additional funds.

According to Caputo, the ongoing discussion centres around the quantity of money to be provided.

Despite persistent political drama, Argentina continues to make progress on fiscal consolidation and achieved a budget surplus in the first 10-months of the year. Notably, wages are now growing faster than inflation, as month-on-month inflation has declined to an annualized rate of 42%, a significant drop from its peak of approximately 280%.

This improvement not only boosts Javier Milei’s popularity but also signals a potential rightward shift in political sentiment across Latin America.

GLA

Finally, for today (phew) Big Den uses HIS time in Italy to drop in on the Pope.

Trivia quiz : which two 'states' have their capitals closest to each other ?

A (1) : The two Congos - Brazzaville and Kinshasa.

A (2) : Italy and the Vatican.

'Not a lot of people know that', as Maurice Joseph Micklewhite is supposed to have said.

GLA

Italy's very, very soft loan...

Is this part of the £ pro quo ?

From Little Den's twitter feed

.."The Republic of #Congo will benefit from a support program for the development of nine (9) integrated health centers across the country. This program, which will extend over five years, for a total budget of 236 million euros, will soon benefit from a first tranche of funding of 45 million euros.

The related intergovernmental agreement was signed this Monday, November 25, 2024 in Rome by Minister Denis @ChristelSassou Nguesso, on behalf of the Congolese government, and the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, for the Italian side.

Minister Denis @ChristelSassou Nguesso indicated that of the 45 million euros that will be paid soon, "35 million euros constitute a loan granted at zero rate repayable over 28 years, including 10 years of grace period and the 10 million represent a donation from Italy to Congo".

He also welcomed the joint efforts made by the two countries to strengthen their bilateral cooperation which has entered into a new dynamic with the "Mattei Plan".

Let's hope these health centers prove more tangible than those 'provided' (not) by Asperbras.

GLA

And there's more !

.." Nantong (China), 23 November 2024 - Eni announces the launch of the hull of the Nguya * floating natural gas liquefaction (FLNG) at the Wison shipyard in Nantong, China.

This state-of-the-art vessel will have a liquefaction capacity of 2.4 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) and will join the Tango FLNG unit, which has been operational since December 2023, with a capacity of 0.6 MTPA. Together, they will increase the capacity of the Congo LNG project to 3 MTPA by the end of 2025.

The ceremony was held in the presence of the Republic of Congo's Hydrocarbons Minister, Bruno Jean Richard Itoua..."

* In the Lingala language of the Congo, ‘Nguya’ symbolises 'power, energy and THE ABILITY TO BRING PROJECTS TO FRUITION ' values that reflect the success of Eni's partnership with the Republic of Congo....

It's a sign, I tell ya...

GLA

The 28th November will be 66th anniversary of Congo Republic day.

Depeches carries a long recital of events since then, concluding with this :

.." The list of Congolese leaders who contributed to the advent of the Conférence nationale of 1991 is a long one, and the respect to which they are entitled is unalterable. But there is

one among them whose humility, tact and discernment made this moment possible and, above all, peaceful. Let us give thanks to César [Ed.: Big Den, for it is he]...and take up the challenge of tolerance dialogue and fraternity..

In this festive period on 28 November 2024, a few weeks before the start of 2025, and the gateway to the Presidential elections of 2026, the Congo will need unity.

So perhaps when the weighty questions arise - such as the restoration of public stability, and a peaceful generational transition - as was the case thirty-three years ago when

the Estates General of the Nation were convened - it's time to put to him [ Ed.: that's Big Den, remember] this essential question: Father of the nation, what direction now? "

This from Jean-Paul Pigasse. Per https://www.babelio.com/auteur/Jean-Paul-Pigasse/219927

.."In 1997, he set up his own press company, Agence d'information d'Afrique centrale (ADIAC), which he currently runs and which is mainly funded by the Congolese state. After setting up a website, he launched a monthly (2002), then a weekly (2006) and a daily news magazine (2007). Jean-Paul Pigasse has also written or co-written a number of books in support of President Denis Sassou-Nguesso..."

Is he calling on his old mate (they're both in their 80's) to step down... or at least address the succession issue ?

And sooner, rather than later...?

GLA

And today's depeches follows Hydrocarbon MInister Itoua's recent exposition on how revenues are applied following strict Budgetary criteria, with the baton of transparency and financial rectitude evidently being picked up by the Minister for Budget Affairs and Public Accounts, who warns his staff that..

.."the Minister for the Budget, in accordance with instructions from his superiors, won't accept the slightest loophole. He has promised severe disciplinary action against executives. ‘You must not not take advantage of your positions of responsibility to settle your own personal problems. Be exemplary managers with integrity. No one will be protected by me and there will be no preferential treatment.

Managers who are caught red-handed will be held to account.

We draw the attention of taxpayers and, IN PARTICULAR, COMPANIES , because for there to be corrupt, there must be corrupters’, he promised .

Consequently, the Minister concluded, a plan to combat fraud, tax evasion and customs evasion will be put in place and applied without weakness..."

I'm reminded of Emerson's sardonic comment : 'The more he spoke of his honour, the faster we counted our spoons'.

GLA

.."Recall the Trahar connections.."

Trahar senior was Anglo CEO /Chair 2000 to 2007; he's also a shareholder in Binding Solutions UK

https://www.bindingsolutions.uk/

with a cold binding system for 'green pelletisation'.

It claims that .."BSL’s technology has a very large addressable market of more than 1 billion tonnes..." That's about 50% of annual global steel production .....

Its strategic partners include Aussie Mineral Resources Limited, Japanese trading conglomerate Mitsui and GLEN-connected Champion Iron Ore Canada ( Jyothish George on board).

Trahar senior was a 'safe pair of hands' interim director of BSL during its corporate restructuring, relinquishing his post thereafter. He's still a shareholder, per Companies House.

IIRC, ZIOC provided samples to BSL for research / validation purposes a few years back, with inconclusive results (see 8 March 2018 Project update). But IF it works, the technology could have material (further ?) impact on Project economics.......

Trahar junior - Andrew - is of course ZIOC's Corporate Development and IR (= Investor Relations) Manager.

If there IS anything going on with Anglo and / or BSL, there'd be an even greater than usual potential for conflict of interest...or, at least, the appearance thereof.

'Caesar's wife' and all that.

Which on the face of it makes him (and by extension his colleagues at ZIOC) unlikely sources for some of the recent newsflow.

AFAICS

GLA and ATB

Hi Jiving,

.." Interesting precedents, these guys know how to build & operate a very similar mine to Zanaga..."

I think the links maybe closer than that - the connection being this gentleman : https://www.linkedin.com/in/ron-derammelaere-551b8313/

He's ex Bechtel's 'Slurry Group' .

.."In 1995, he joined Ausenco (then known as Pipeline Systems Incorporated (PSI)) as project manager for several significant slurry pipeline projects, including Samarco in Brazil. He was subsequently promoted to senior vice president of operations, and in December 2001, he was appointed as president and chief executive officer. He successfully served in that role until negotiating the sale of PSI to Ausenco in 2008. Derammelaere continued serving as President of what became known as Ausenco PSI until he accepted his present position as Senior Advisor/Chief Technology Officer in early 2011..."

https://www.smh.com.au/business/ausenco-acquires-psi-group-for-us329m-20080205-1q5m.html

Another - or maybe the same- group of Bay Area (=Bechtel) consultant engineers set up the similarly-named Pipeline Systems Engineering Incorporated, with expertise in long-distance slurry pipelines

https://psei.co/services-copy-2-copy/

and which has a congruent operational footprint (the Americas, Africa, Asia) , including these projects :

https://psei.co/services-copy-3/

Zanaga Iron Ore Project , Congo SA – Study and Definitive Feasibility Study for MDP

Study and Definitive Feasibility Study Guinea Bauxite Project - Feasibility study of pipeline transportation system (160km)

Kunming Iron & Steel Co. Ltd. Yuhezhai Project – Feasibility and detailed design for mine, process plant, concentrate pipeline, tailings dry storage, equipment procurement, construction services.

It was Kunming's facilities - including slurry pipeline - that featured in the Zanaga 2023 presentation, Kunming now being part of BaoWu

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/chinese-steel-consolidation-continues-with-baowu-s-kunming-iron-steel-takeover-62451498

The mining community is notoriously incestuous, I imagine mining consultants even more so (Marty?), the necessary expertise if not actually in-house - will be pretty close to hand.

AIUI

GLA

Hi Jiving,

.."We plan on allocating our share of the high-quality pellet feed to our pellet plants in Brazil and in the future to the Mega Hubs producing iron ore briquettes.”

And of course, for its part, Anglo has 15 years to run on its supply contract with an existing Gulf pelletising plant, Foulath in Bahrain :

https://www.bahrainsteel.com.bh/press_release/Bahrain%20Steel%20&%20Anglo%20American%20Partnership.pdf

Could we be looking at a Vale / AA joint approach ..... Vale for the 'jungle engineering' , Anglo for the 'Africa' know-how ?

Ho hum

ATB

Meanwhile, speaking of 'the Devil', Abu Dhabi's Al Monitor comes up with this assessment of the Orange Man :

.."Saudi Arabia to pursue two-track approach for Trump presidency

While Saudi Arabia has largely welcomed Trump's return to the White House, it has also made new alliances and repaired relations with neighbors since his first term in office. So Riyadh will need to separate its business dealings with Trump from its foreign policy engagements, where there is likely to be much disagreement..."

A refreshingly 'business-like' approach.

Something HMG might consider....

GLA

Hi atg

From the Sundance RNS, Congo initiated the approach for a mediated settlement, and could show Sundance it was making progress at getting funds together.

Given this version of the back story, I don't think 'goodwill' comes into it - ' sundance macabre', worth it for the title alone...

https://sassoufit.org/2016/08/28/sundance-macabre-avec-denis-christel-nguesso/

The link title is a pun on his name - 'ca suffit' (enough's enough), the article is from the anti-corruption opposition. So maybe to be taken with a bit of salt.

Cameroon's not much better : from an earlier 26 April 2024 RNS explaining delays in Cameroon litigation (other than unpaid lawyer's fees) there's this laconic Aussie comment :

.."On 21 January 2023, the Cameroon Minister of Mines, Mr Gabriel Ndoke, died suddenly in

mysterious circumstances. This led to Cameroon requesting a delay in the arbitration

proceedings..."

These are not nice people.

AIUI.

ATB

Oh! and important folk in Cameroon also seem to be unlucky : from an earlier 26 April 2024 RNS explaining delays in Cameroon litigation (other than unpaid lawyer's fees) there's this laconic Aussie comment :

.."On 21 January 2023, the Cameroon Minister of Mines, Mr Gabriel Ndoke, died suddenly in

mysterious circumstances. This led to Cameroon requesting a delay in the arbitration

proceedings..."

These are not nice people.

Hi GTX,

I did say it was complicated ! ;->

(1) The suggestion that funds were on their way came from Sundance's 30 Sept RNS :

.."The cash funds, as required by the Conditional Settlement, have not been received. Following meetings with Congo representatives, Congo has demonstrated to Sundance some progress in raising the funds so it was agreed that the end date of the Conditional Settlement would be extended to 31 October 2024. ..."

These discussions followed an approach from Congo, reported 1st July 2024

.."Following a mediated discussion that Congo had recently initiated with Sundance..."

(2) The existing litigation relates to Sundance's concession to a mine in Congo - Nabeba; it has another concession (adjacent but just across the border) to a mine in Cameroon -Mbalam - which is subject to separate litigation.

from the mining.com link I provided :

.."Sundance is in a separate dispute with Cameroon over an iron ore licence.

“The Conditional Settlement with Congo… will not affect the company’s ICC arbitration against Cameroon,” it said.

(3) Cameroon is also scrabbling :

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2024/10/24/yaounde-strives-to-save-its-arbitration-against-miner-sundance-over-mbalam-iron,110331135-art

(4) From BUR's pov, the important bit is that Sundance recognizes that WE get first dibs !

From the 30 Sept RNS.." consistent with Sundance’s communications with all stakeholders, any cash proceeds received by the Company as a result of its proceedings against Congo will be applied to meet the obligations to Sundance’s litigation funder and secured noteholders as well as returning value for the Company’s shareholders..."

(5) It was CONGO's Minister that made all the pious references to the importance of rule of law, transparency and ethics, not Cameroon's, hence my remarks.

(6) If you REALLY want to get into the long grass and have the time, you might glance at this bit of backstory ' sundance macabre', worth it for the title alone...

https://sassoufit.org/2016/08/28/sundance-macabre-avec-denis-christel-nguesso/

The photo at start is the President's son Denis Christel Nguesso aka 'Kike' (mantioned later); dad is Denis Sassou Nguesso. The link title is a pun on his name - 'ca suffit' (enough's enough), the article is from the anti-corruption opposition.

I can't speak to the detail in the auto-translate, but the broad thrust is (hopefully) clear.

HTH

Hi Gtx

It's complicated!

For starters, C-B approached Sundance for a settlement!

AND made part payment.(presumably into escrow, to be paid over on signature)..See Sundance releases.

C-B changed Its lawyers recently, hard to work out whether before or after settlement had been proposed.

Willingness to pay MAY have been on assumption monies were coming from elsewhere (progress on other miningco developments in C-B) OR as part of 'cleaning up Its act' as Condition Precedent for these other developments.

A week after the renewed Sundance hearing (14th Nov) a senior C-B minister, Itoua, i/C the vital Hydrocarbons ministry, gave a fulsome speech at a Paris conference business in Africa, stressing the importance of business ethics and transparency, rule of law, parliamentary oversight etc...

Hard to understand what exactly going on, I think cautiously positive.

A bigger determinant for BUR is the China USD alternative gambit, which could be a factor in both C-B and Argentina settlements, they both have USD debt that they struggle to settle 'conventionally', but have resources that the Chinese would take in payment....

AFAICS/AIUI

From BUR investor perspective

."Maybe more straws in the wind..."

A hostage to fortune comment indeed !

Today brings an update re Sundance's litigation in C-B.

(1) Initial report re an approach (from C-B) to settle, here

https://www.mining.com/web/sundance-settles-dispute-with-congo-republic-over-iron-ore-project/;

(2) Sundance extends settlement date, C-B only partly met agreed cash terms, here

https://www.sundanceresources.com.au/irm/pdf/61cad582-d041-42aa-a4c5-a6867e115165/Conditional-settlement-with-Congo-terminated.pdf

(3) Sundance reports it has, as it said it would, resumed litigation, here

https://www.sundanceresources.com.au/irm/pdf/8a5f8d69-e319-4418-b27e-c9efd24df44c/Update-on-Congo-Proceedings.pdf

..."the hearing for the arbitration between Sundance, Sundance’s subsidiary Congo Iron SA and Congo (“the Parties”) was scheduled to occur before the International Court of Arbitration of the ICC (“ICC”) on 14 November 2024 in Paris.

The hearing was completed on 17 November 2024. The Company is now waiting on a decision from the ICC WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED FOR APPROXIMATELY A FURTHER 6 TO 8 MONTHS."

This is interesting for a couple of reasons :

(1) What prompted C-B to propose settlement, go part way to fulfilling and then fail to complete ? What contemporaneous developments might have caused this evolution in C-B thinking?

C-B's change of lawyers? The (subsequent?) establishment of .."the proposed holdingco for the state's investments/carried interests in mining firms, the Fonds d'Investissement Minier du Congo (FIMC) .."? Developments (a bit erratic, but still forward) with KP2 ? US election outcome ? Settlement was a 'feint' and - having achieved a deferral - served its purpose?

(2) GLEN (Lager), Itoua (C-B) , other panellists and attendees, MEETING 19 AND 20 NOVEMBER would /should have been aware of THE 1ST NOVEMBER AND 14TH NOVEMBER NEWS of this LIVE 'TEST CASE ' for C-B business ethics .

I can see why GLEN/Lager himself might have chosen to ignore the blatant hypocrisy of Itoua's speechifying, but not why no one else (IN A CONFERENCE THEMED AROUND TRANSPARENCY, ETHICS AND RULE OF LAW, etc) called him out on Sundance...or at least asked for clarification.

All very odd. Any ideas?

GLA

.."Maybe more straws in the wind..."

A hostage to fortune comment indeed !

Today brings an update re Sundance's litigation in C-B.

(1) Initial report re an approach (from C-B) to settle, here

https://www.mining.com/web/sundance-settles-dispute-with-congo-republic-over-iron-ore-project/;

(2) Sundance extends settlement date, C-B only partly met agreed cash terms, here

https://www.sundanceresources.com.au/irm/pdf/61cad582-d041-42aa-a4c5-a6867e115165/Conditional-settlement-with-Congo-terminated.pdf

(3) Sundance reports it has, as it said it would, resumed litigation, here

https://www.sundanceresources.com.au/irm/pdf/8a5f8d69-e319-4418-b27e-c9efd24df44c/Update-on-Congo-Proceedings.pdf

..."the hearing for the arbitration between Sundance, Sundance’s subsidiary Congo Iron SA and Congo (“the Parties”) was scheduled to occur before the International Court of Arbitration of the ICC (“ICC”) on 14 November 2024 in Paris.

The hearing was completed on 17 November 2024. The Company is now waiting on a decision from the ICC WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED FOR APPROXIMATELY A FURTHER 6 TO 8 MONTHS."

This is interesting for a couple of reasons :

(1) What prompted C-B to propose settlement, go part way to fulfilling and then fail to complete ? What contemporaneous developments might have caused this evolution in C-B thinking?

C-B's change of lawyers? The (subsequent?) establishment of .."the proposed holdingco for the state's investments/carried interests in mining firms, the Fonds d'Investissement Minier du Congo (FIMC) .."? Developments (a bit erratic, but still forward) with KP2 ? US election outcome ? Settlement was a 'feint' and - having achieved a deferral - served its purpose?

(2) GLEN (Lager), Itoua (C-B) , other panellists and attendees would /should have been aware of this 'poster child ' for C-B business ethics . I can see why GLEN/Lager himself might have chosen to ignore the blatant hypocrisy of Itoua's speechifying, but not why no one else (in a conference about transparency, ethics and rule of law, etc) called him out on Sundance...or at least asked for clarification.

All very odd. Any ideas?

GLA

Hi atg,

Thanks for clarifying your position ...and I agree that the sweep is based on a 'clean' take-out.

In no particular order, my thinking was (a) to have some fun ; (b) get a little bit of 'price discovery' around people's thinking (hence the update ref to Jiving's and MM's detailed workings - even if they haven't joined in - as yet!); and (c) to encourage us all -in the event of a 'life-changing' outcome, to share some of our good fortune with others.

I personally am rooting for something that benefits the Congolese themselves and - whether one of the Congo-connected charities wins or not - now have some leads/ideas as to how to make a separate contribution in their direction.

I'm kind of making the rules up as I go along - witness the recent clarifications re (1) tie-breaker and (2) cut-off point for s/p prediction changes. Thanks for prompting a third!

ATB atg and GLA

Got it!

Apols...that 'predictive text ' feature sometimes throws up interesting results : a reference to a friend's colonoscopy experience prompted it as 'kaleidoscopic'....

Well, yes.

ATB

Florent's linked-in page :

https://www.linkedin.com/in/florent-lager-2301b01/?originalSubdomain=cg

His presentation keypoints (which echo the 'ESG-driven' script in Marty's HR interview)

.."Moderated by Pierre-Samuel Guedj, CEO of Affectio Mutandi, the session focused on a competitive, transparent and inclusive mining sector, key objectives of the Fédération des Mines Solides du Congo (FedMines).

🔍 Transparency: an imperative for sustainable development

- Financial: Congo has been EITI compliant since 2013, with regularly published reports. Efforts are needed to improve the reporting of certain players and to disseminate and explain the content of these reports.

- Traceability: start-up NATIXAR uses AI to trace CO₂ emissions, and initiatives such as Fair Cobalt Alliance (FCA) or Initiative Responsible Mining Assurance (IRMA) are strengthening the sustainability of minerals.

- Technology: blockchain and digital tools ensure more transparent tracking of revenues and resource management.

🤝 Inclusion: a lever for equitable growth

- Dialogue and involvement: Collaboration between the state, investors and local populations is essential to ensure equitable growth.

- Legal framework: FPIC and ESIAs guarantee public consultation with the communities concerned.

- Stakeholder action plan: Map stakeholders and integrate NGOs such as WWF, Wildlife Conservation Society and PANTHERA (creation of national parks such as Ogooué-Leketi) or Initiative Développement for social projects.

- Indigenous peoples: Congo's 2011 legislation protects the rights of indigenous peoples.

- Inclusion of women and young people: Women and young people play a key role in mining and mining subcontracting, despite persistent cultural barriers and difficulties in accessing education.

- Local content: Develop a national strategy that maximises the benefits of local content and supports the development of mining areas.

- Regional consultation: the African Mining Vision and the CEMAC mining strategy currently being developed must better integrate the objectives of the private sector and the reality of each country.

🚀 Towards a transformative mining sector

A sustainable mining future depends on profitability, planning, stability and trust. The involvement of employers' unions like Unicongo, and constant dialogue are key to meeting these challenges.

🔜 See you at the Rencontre des Entrepreneurs Francophones (REF 2025) in Brazzaville at the end of June 2025, organised by Unicongo and the Alliance des Patronats Francophones, to continue these discussions.

GLA